There is no housing bubble in the DC area so get over it

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The Washington DC housing market is not a bubble for 3 reasons:

(1) This is a government, defense, and high-tech center. I believe we have either the 3rd or 2nd-worst traffic in the country. Everyone wants to be here, because this is where the jobs are. That puts upwards pressure on house prices, and it isn't going away any time soon.

(2) There is a TON of money running around this town. It's clearly shown by the fact that people can handle $3500-4500/month mortgage payments. And because of the level of incomes here, that's not going to change any time soon, either. As my dad said, this is as close to a recession-proof town as you'll find.

(3) Shortage of land. Every bit of unbuilt land - even small plots that are only big enough for 10-20 houses - is being gobbled up by eager builders who sell half their houses when the houses don't even exist, and will not be built until 6 months after they're sold!

In this area, we have a total seller's market. The situation may drift back and become somewhat more of a buyer's market (and I actually would see that as positive), but there's no way it's going to become a total buyer's market. I don't know how young families buy into Washington, but it really doesn't matter. SOMEONE is buying, as fast as they can!

Silly me! I forgot to put the link to that quote:

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2005/07/washington_dc_bubble.html

Oh...and the time when that particular homeowner said those words...July, 2005.

Gosh those arguments sound all too familiar, don't they? You know what the difference between 2005 and 2013 in the DC area was? At least you still had expanding federal budgets, that's stopped...so PLEASE! raise those same bullsh*t arguments to support price-to-income ratios higher than the 30 year average on a housing market ready to fall again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The boom is just starting.

Bahaha, you're kidding, right?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Washington DC housing market is not a bubble for 3 reasons:

(1) This is a government, defense, and high-tech center. I believe we have either the 3rd or 2nd-worst traffic in the country. Everyone wants to be here, because this is where the jobs are. That puts upwards pressure on house prices, and it isn't going away any time soon.

(2) There is a TON of money running around this town. It's clearly shown by the fact that people can handle $3500-4500/month mortgage payments. And because of the level of incomes here, that's not going to change any time soon, either. As my dad said, this is as close to a recession-proof town as you'll find.

(3) Shortage of land. Every bit of unbuilt land - even small plots that are only big enough for 10-20 houses - is being gobbled up by eager builders who sell half their houses when the houses don't even exist, and will not be built until 6 months after they're sold!

In this area, we have a total seller's market. The situation may drift back and become somewhat more of a buyer's market (and I actually would see that as positive), but there's no way it's going to become a total buyer's market. I don't know how young families buy into Washington, but it really doesn't matter. SOMEONE is buying, as fast as they can!

Silly me! I forgot to put the link to that quote:

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2005/07/washington_dc_bubble.html

Oh...and the time when that particular homeowner said those words...July, 2005.

Gosh those arguments sound all too familiar, don't they? You know what the difference between 2005 and 2013 in the DC area was? At least you still had expanding federal budgets, that's stopped...so PLEASE! raise those same bullsh*t arguments to support price-to-income ratios higher than the 30 year average on a housing market ready to fall again.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Washington DC housing market is not a bubble for 3 reasons:

(1) This is a government, defense, and high-tech center. I believe we have either the 3rd or 2nd-worst traffic in the country. Everyone wants to be here, because this is where the jobs are. That puts upwards pressure on house prices, and it isn't going away any time soon.

(2) There is a TON of money running around this town. It's clearly shown by the fact that people can handle $3500-4500/month mortgage payments. And because of the level of incomes here, that's not going to change any time soon, either. As my dad said, this is as close to a recession-proof town as you'll find.

(3) Shortage of land. Every bit of unbuilt land - even small plots that are only big enough for 10-20 houses - is being gobbled up by eager builders who sell half their houses when the houses don't even exist, and will not be built until 6 months after they're sold!

In this area, we have a total seller's market. The situation may drift back and become somewhat more of a buyer's market (and I actually would see that as positive), but there's no way it's going to become a total buyer's market. I don't know how young families buy into Washington, but it really doesn't matter. SOMEONE is buying, as fast as they can!

Silly me! I forgot to put the link to that quote:

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2005/07/washington_dc_bubble.html

Oh...and the time when that particular homeowner said those words...July, 2005.

Gosh those arguments sound all too familiar, don't they? You know what the difference between 2005 and 2013 in the DC area was? At least you still had expanding federal budgets, that's stopped...so PLEASE! raise those same bullsh*t arguments to support price-to-income ratios higher than the 30 year average on a housing market ready to fall again.

Completely different situation with the type of loans and buyers and by 2005 the boom had already been going on for 5 years.

Todays buyers are very qualified and have a lot of extra income and savings to brunt any dips in the market. The previous glut of buyers who started the drop in prices couldn't afford their homes with continual appreciation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Washington DC housing market is not a bubble for 3 reasons:

(1) This is a government, defense, and high-tech center. I believe we have either the 3rd or 2nd-worst traffic in the country. Everyone wants to be here, because this is where the jobs are. That puts upwards pressure on house prices, and it isn't going away any time soon.

(2) There is a TON of money running around this town. It's clearly shown by the fact that people can handle $3500-4500/month mortgage payments. And because of the level of incomes here, that's not going to change any time soon, either. As my dad said, this is as close to a recession-proof town as you'll find.

(3) Shortage of land. Every bit of unbuilt land - even small plots that are only big enough for 10-20 houses - is being gobbled up by eager builders who sell half their houses when the houses don't even exist, and will not be built until 6 months after they're sold!

In this area, we have a total seller's market. The situation may drift back and become somewhat more of a buyer's market (and I actually would see that as positive), but there's no way it's going to become a total buyer's market. I don't know how young families buy into Washington, but it really doesn't matter. SOMEONE is buying, as fast as they can!

Silly me! I forgot to put the link to that quote:

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2005/07/washington_dc_bubble.html

Oh...and the time when that particular homeowner said those words...July, 2005.

Gosh those arguments sound all too familiar, don't they? You know what the difference between 2005 and 2013 in the DC area was? At least you still had expanding federal budgets, that's stopped...so PLEASE! raise those same bullsh*t arguments to support price-to-income ratios higher than the 30 year average on a housing market ready to fall again.

Completely different situation with the type of loans and buyers and by 2005 the boom had already been going on for 5 years.

Todays buyers are very qualified and have a lot of extra income and savings to brunt any dips in the market. The previous glut of buyers who started the drop in prices couldn't afford their homes with continual appreciation.

*withOUT continual appreciation

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Washington DC housing market is not a bubble for 3 reasons:

(1) This is a government, defense, and high-tech center. I believe we have either the 3rd or 2nd-worst traffic in the country. Everyone wants to be here, because this is where the jobs are. That puts upwards pressure on house prices, and it isn't going away any time soon.

(2) There is a TON of money running around this town. It's clearly shown by the fact that people can handle $3500-4500/month mortgage payments. And because of the level of incomes here, that's not going to change any time soon, either. As my dad said, this is as close to a recession-proof town as you'll find.

(3) Shortage of land. Every bit of unbuilt land - even small plots that are only big enough for 10-20 houses - is being gobbled up by eager builders who sell half their houses when the houses don't even exist, and will not be built until 6 months after they're sold!

In this area, we have a total seller's market. The situation may drift back and become somewhat more of a buyer's market (and I actually would see that as positive), but there's no way it's going to become a total buyer's market. I don't know how young families buy into Washington, but it really doesn't matter. SOMEONE is buying, as fast as they can!

Silly me! I forgot to put the link to that quote:

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2005/07/washington_dc_bubble.html

Oh...and the time when that particular homeowner said those words...July, 2005.

Gosh those arguments sound all too familiar, don't they? You know what the difference between 2005 and 2013 in the DC area was? At least you still had expanding federal budgets, that's stopped...so PLEASE! raise those same bullsh*t arguments to support price-to-income ratios higher than the 30 year average on a housing market ready to fall again.

Completely different situation with the type of loans and buyers and by 2005 the boom had already been going on for 5 years.

Todays buyers are very qualified and have a lot of extra income and savings to brunt any dips in the market. The previous glut of buyers who started the drop in prices couldn't afford their homes with continual appreciation.

I'm sorry, but that's complete nonsense. My wife and I were approved for a $550K mortgage on a combined income of $110K, with 5% down on a conventional 30-year fixed. Highest midpoint credit score was 680. This was operated through BofA. It took them four hours to pre-approve. If that's what you're considering "very qualified" then I have to question your sanity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Washington DC housing market is not a bubble for 3 reasons:

(1) This is a government, defense, and high-tech center. I believe we have either the 3rd or 2nd-worst traffic in the country. Everyone wants to be here, because this is where the jobs are. That puts upwards pressure on house prices, and it isn't going away any time soon.

(2) There is a TON of money running around this town. It's clearly shown by the fact that people can handle $3500-4500/month mortgage payments. And because of the level of incomes here, that's not going to change any time soon, either. As my dad said, this is as close to a recession-proof town as you'll find.

(3) Shortage of land. Every bit of unbuilt land - even small plots that are only big enough for 10-20 houses - is being gobbled up by eager builders who sell half their houses when the houses don't even exist, and will not be built until 6 months after they're sold!

In this area, we have a total seller's market. The situation may drift back and become somewhat more of a buyer's market (and I actually would see that as positive), but there's no way it's going to become a total buyer's market. I don't know how young families buy into Washington, but it really doesn't matter. SOMEONE is buying, as fast as they can!

Silly me! I forgot to put the link to that quote:

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2005/07/washington_dc_bubble.html

Oh...and the time when that particular homeowner said those words...July, 2005.

Gosh those arguments sound all too familiar, don't they? You know what the difference between 2005 and 2013 in the DC area was? At least you still had expanding federal budgets, that's stopped...so PLEASE! raise those same bullsh*t arguments to support price-to-income ratios higher than the 30 year average on a housing market ready to fall again.

Completely different situation with the type of loans and buyers and by 2005 the boom had already been going on for 5 years.

Todays buyers are very qualified and have a lot of extra income and savings to brunt any dips in the market. The previous glut of buyers who started the drop in prices couldn't afford their homes with continual appreciation.

I'm sorry, but that's complete nonsense. My wife and I were approved for a $550K mortgage on a combined income of $110K, with 5% down on a conventional 30-year fixed. Highest midpoint credit score was 680. This was operated through BofA. It took them four hours to pre-approve. If that's what you're considering "very qualified" then I have to question your sanity.

Compare that to 2005 where you would make up your income, get a loan for more than the value of the home and every month you wouldn't even pay the interest (neg arm).

My boss sold his 600k home to a house cleaner who probably made no more than 35k a year but through the use of a no income loan and negative arm was able to get the home. Fast-forward 2 years later he saw the home was vacant and the neighbor informed him it went into foreclosure. This was in Fairfax va.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Washington DC housing market is not a bubble for 3 reasons:

(1) This is a government, defense, and high-tech center. I believe we have either the 3rd or 2nd-worst traffic in the country. Everyone wants to be here, because this is where the jobs are. That puts upwards pressure on house prices, and it isn't going away any time soon.

(2) There is a TON of money running around this town. It's clearly shown by the fact that people can handle $3500-4500/month mortgage payments. And because of the level of incomes here, that's not going to change any time soon, either. As my dad said, this is as close to a recession-proof town as you'll find.

(3) Shortage of land. Every bit of unbuilt land - even small plots that are only big enough for 10-20 houses - is being gobbled up by eager builders who sell half their houses when the houses don't even exist, and will not be built until 6 months after they're sold!

In this area, we have a total seller's market. The situation may drift back and become somewhat more of a buyer's market (and I actually would see that as positive), but there's no way it's going to become a total buyer's market. I don't know how young families buy into Washington, but it really doesn't matter. SOMEONE is buying, as fast as they can!

Silly me! I forgot to put the link to that quote:

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2005/07/washington_dc_bubble.html

Oh...and the time when that particular homeowner said those words...July, 2005.

Gosh those arguments sound all too familiar, don't they? You know what the difference between 2005 and 2013 in the DC area was? At least you still had expanding federal budgets, that's stopped...so PLEASE! raise those same bullsh*t arguments to support price-to-income ratios higher than the 30 year average on a housing market ready to fall again.

Completely different situation with the type of loans and buyers and by 2005 the boom had already been going on for 5 years.

Todays buyers are very qualified and have a lot of extra income and savings to brunt any dips in the market. The previous glut of buyers who started the drop in prices couldn't afford their homes with continual appreciation.

I'm sorry, but that's complete nonsense. My wife and I were approved for a $550K mortgage on a combined income of $110K, with 5% down on a conventional 30-year fixed. Highest midpoint credit score was 680. This was operated through BofA. It took them four hours to pre-approve. If that's what you're considering "very qualified" then I have to question your sanity.

Compare that to 2005 where you would make up your income, get a loan for more than the value of the home and every month you wouldn't even pay the interest (neg arm).

My boss sold his 600k home to a house cleaner who probably made no more than 35k a year but through the use of a no income loan and negative arm was able to get the home. Fast-forward 2 years later he saw the home was vacant and the neighbor informed him it went into foreclosure. This was in Fairfax va.

One more thing to add, it was no downpayment because the HUD sheet showed that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I'm sorry, but that's complete nonsense. My wife and I were approved for a $550K mortgage on a combined income of $110K, with 5% down on a conventional 30-year fixed. Highest midpoint credit score was 680. This was operated through BofA. It took them four hours to pre-approve. If that's what you're considering "very qualified" then I have to question your sanity.

just curious - what did you do with that? Did you buy lower?

We had credit scores in the 700s, a slightly higher HHI and the guy running our numbers said we could handle 2 mortgages totaling $650K. I told him he was nuts. Sure, if we cut our savings entirely, but no way could we have easily made house payments of close to $4K on a salary like ours.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Washington DC housing market is not a bubble for 3 reasons:

(1) This is a government, defense, and high-tech center. I believe we have either the 3rd or 2nd-worst traffic in the country. Everyone wants to be here, because this is where the jobs are. That puts upwards pressure on house prices, and it isn't going away any time soon.

(2) There is a TON of money running around this town. It's clearly shown by the fact that people can handle $3500-4500/month mortgage payments. And because of the level of incomes here, that's not going to change any time soon, either. As my dad said, this is as close to a recession-proof town as you'll find.

(3) Shortage of land. Every bit of unbuilt land - even small plots that are only big enough for 10-20 houses - is being gobbled up by eager builders who sell half their houses when the houses don't even exist, and will not be built until 6 months after they're sold!

In this area, we have a total seller's market. The situation may drift back and become somewhat more of a buyer's market (and I actually would see that as positive), but there's no way it's going to become a total buyer's market. I don't know how young families buy into Washington, but it really doesn't matter. SOMEONE is buying, as fast as they can!

Silly me! I forgot to put the link to that quote:

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2005/07/washington_dc_bubble.html

Oh...and the time when that particular homeowner said those words...July, 2005.

Gosh those arguments sound all too familiar, don't they? You know what the difference between 2005 and 2013 in the DC area was? At least you still had expanding federal budgets, that's stopped...so PLEASE! raise those same bullsh*t arguments to support price-to-income ratios higher than the 30 year average on a housing market ready to fall again.

Completely different situation with the type of loans and buyers and by 2005 the boom had already been going on for 5 years.

Todays buyers are very qualified and have a lot of extra income and savings to brunt any dips in the market. The previous glut of buyers who started the drop in prices couldn't afford their homes with continual appreciation.

I'm sorry, but that's complete nonsense. My wife and I were approved for a $550K mortgage on a combined income of $110K, with 5% down on a conventional 30-year fixed. Highest midpoint credit score was 680. This was operated through BofA. It took them four hours to pre-approve. If that's what you're considering "very qualified" then I have to question your sanity.

Gotta agree. To me, all the talk about stricter lending standards is hype. With interest rates so low, banks are actually MORE enticed to lend riskily because their margin for error can be greater and still make a profit.

Add to the fact that there is already publicized growing political pressure for banks to ease up lending standards:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-administration-pushes-banks-to-make-home-loans-to-people-with-weaker-credit/2013/04/02/a8b4370c-9aef-11e2-a941-a19bce7af755_story.html

Yeah...gonna agree, market fundamentals points us to 2000-2001 levels for home prices, on an inflation adjusted basis. We had previous dips and rises in the econoomy because the government was able to take on more and more debt to leverage the country up (look at the cycles that people point to, they always coordinate with an increase in government deficit). The simple fact of the matter is that the Fed has played it's best card, and it's helping buoy the markets along...once that artificial support falls, you're going to see a return to 2000 level home prices on an inflation adjusted basis.

Right now, in the DC market, the average home price to household income ratio is 3.5, over the past 30 years, that number has been 2.7. The ONLY reason that people are able to spend more for a house right now is low interest rates, job growth in the area has remained flat, and incomes haven't risen...so what else could be driving the increase in demand?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I'm sorry, but that's complete nonsense. My wife and I were approved for a $550K mortgage on a combined income of $110K, with 5% down on a conventional 30-year fixed. Highest midpoint credit score was 680. This was operated through BofA. It took them four hours to pre-approve. If that's what you're considering "very qualified" then I have to question your sanity.

just curious - what did you do with that? Did you buy lower?

We had credit scores in the 700s, a slightly higher HHI and the guy running our numbers said we could handle 2 mortgages totaling $650K. I told him he was nuts. Sure, if we cut our savings entirely, but no way could we have easily made house payments of close to $4K on a salary like ours.

We're still looking and renting, I'm not convinced this market is right for us...it's way too temporary in nature (contracts getting shorter and shorter). I've lived here for a decade, married five years ago, and now have a kid, so I've seen this market through different "eyes"...quite frankly, the DMV is nuts and does not feel like a good bet for a long-term thing. Way too much is built on overly complicated notions and people assuring themselves that "nothing could go wrong here"...seemed optimistic as a kid, now as an adult...seems delusional.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Washington DC housing market is not a bubble for 3 reasons:

(1) This is a government, defense, and high-tech center. I believe we have either the 3rd or 2nd-worst traffic in the country. Everyone wants to be here, because this is where the jobs are. That puts upwards pressure on house prices, and it isn't going away any time soon.

(2) There is a TON of money running around this town. It's clearly shown by the fact that people can handle $3500-4500/month mortgage payments. And because of the level of incomes here, that's not going to change any time soon, either. As my dad said, this is as close to a recession-proof town as you'll find.

(3) Shortage of land. Every bit of unbuilt land - even small plots that are only big enough for 10-20 houses - is being gobbled up by eager builders who sell half their houses when the houses don't even exist, and will not be built until 6 months after they're sold!

In this area, we have a total seller's market. The situation may drift back and become somewhat more of a buyer's market (and I actually would see that as positive), but there's no way it's going to become a total buyer's market. I don't know how young families buy into Washington, but it really doesn't matter. SOMEONE is buying, as fast as they can!

Silly me! I forgot to put the link to that quote:

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2005/07/washington_dc_bubble.html

Oh...and the time when that particular homeowner said those words...July, 2005.

Gosh those arguments sound all too familiar, don't they? You know what the difference between 2005 and 2013 in the DC area was? At least you still had expanding federal budgets, that's stopped...so PLEASE! raise those same bullsh*t arguments to support price-to-income ratios higher than the 30 year average on a housing market ready to fall again.

Completely different situation with the type of loans and buyers and by 2005 the boom had already been going on for 5 years.

Todays buyers are very qualified and have a lot of extra income and savings to brunt any dips in the market. The previous glut of buyers who started the drop in prices couldn't afford their homes with continual appreciation.

I'm sorry, but that's complete nonsense. My wife and I were approved for a $550K mortgage on a combined income of $110K, with 5% down on a conventional 30-year fixed. Highest midpoint credit score was 680. This was operated through BofA. It took them four hours to pre-approve. If that's what you're considering "very qualified" then I have to question your sanity.

Compare that to 2005 where you would make up your income, get a loan for more than the value of the home and every month you wouldn't even pay the interest (neg arm).

My boss sold his 600k home to a house cleaner who probably made no more than 35k a year but through the use of a no income loan and negative arm was able to get the home. Fast-forward 2 years later he saw the home was vacant and the neighbor informed him it went into foreclosure. This was in Fairfax va.

Noone is saying that this bubble will be anything even close to what we witnessed in the early to mid-2000's...that doesn't negate the fact that it is still a bubble.

A bubble is defined by speculation driven by something other than market fundamentals for a particular asset. If home prices are increasing, while job growth and income has not...tell me, what is driving this rally.

That's probably the best question, what about the DC local economy has improved since this time last year?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I'm sorry, but that's complete nonsense. My wife and I were approved for a $550K mortgage on a combined income of $110K, with 5% down on a conventional 30-year fixed. Highest midpoint credit score was 680. This was operated through BofA. It took them four hours to pre-approve. If that's what you're considering "very qualified" then I have to question your sanity.

just curious - what did you do with that? Did you buy lower?

We had credit scores in the 700s, a slightly higher HHI and the guy running our numbers said we could handle 2 mortgages totaling $650K. I told him he was nuts. Sure, if we cut our savings entirely, but no way could we have easily made house payments of close to $4K on a salary like ours.

We're still looking and renting, I'm not convinced this market is right for us...it's way too temporary in nature (contracts getting shorter and shorter). I've lived here for a decade, married five years ago, and now have a kid, so I've seen this market through different "eyes"...quite frankly, the DMV is nuts and does not feel like a good bet for a long-term thing. Way too much is built on overly complicated notions and people assuring themselves that "nothing could go wrong here"...seemed optimistic as a kid, now as an adult...seems delusional.

Good luck to you. We were lucky that we were able to sell a previous property for a profit and put that money towards a downpayment on the next one. We had hoped to move out of state at that point, but my husband's job field just isn't readily available anywhere else. So, we bought a house and we will stay. We didn't stretch to our absolute limit and we feel pretty secure in our jobs. We figure if we get into a situation where we can no longer afford our mortgage, it means the entire country has gone down the tubes and we won't be alone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I'm sorry, but that's complete nonsense. My wife and I were approved for a $550K mortgage on a combined income of $110K, with 5% down on a conventional 30-year fixed. Highest midpoint credit score was 680. This was operated through BofA. It took them four hours to pre-approve. If that's what you're considering "very qualified" then I have to question your sanity.

just curious - what did you do with that? Did you buy lower?

We had credit scores in the 700s, a slightly higher HHI and the guy running our numbers said we could handle 2 mortgages totaling $650K. I told him he was nuts. Sure, if we cut our savings entirely, but no way could we have easily made house payments of close to $4K on a salary like ours.

We're still looking and renting, I'm not convinced this market is right for us...it's way too temporary in nature (contracts getting shorter and shorter). I've lived here for a decade, married five years ago, and now have a kid, so I've seen this market through different "eyes"...quite frankly, the DMV is nuts and does not feel like a good bet for a long-term thing. Way too much is built on overly complicated notions and people assuring themselves that "nothing could go wrong here"...seemed optimistic as a kid, now as an adult...seems delusional.

Good luck to you. We were lucky that we were able to sell a previous property for a profit and put that money towards a downpayment on the next one. We had hoped to move out of state at that point, but my husband's job field just isn't readily available anywhere else. So, we bought a house and we will stay. We didn't stretch to our absolute limit and we feel pretty secure in our jobs. We figure if we get into a situation where we can no longer afford our mortgage, it means the entire country has gone down the tubes and we won't be alone.

Thanks, and good luck to you too, and please don't get me wrong...I'm hoping for a viable housing recovery, I just think it is putting the cart before the horse when we think we can see a housing recovery before an economic recovery...last time I checked, people get jobs and THEN buy houses, not the other way around.

Until someone can explain to me why the local DC economy has improved (not simply remained "stable") since this point last year, I'm not buying into any rally as anything other than a dead-cat bounce.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Washington DC housing market is not a bubble for 3 reasons:

(1) This is a government, defense, and high-tech center. I believe we have either the 3rd or 2nd-worst traffic in the country. Everyone wants to be here, because this is where the jobs are. That puts upwards pressure on house prices, and it isn't going away any time soon.

(2) There is a TON of money running around this town. It's clearly shown by the fact that people can handle $3500-4500/month mortgage payments. And because of the level of incomes here, that's not going to change any time soon, either. As my dad said, this is as close to a recession-proof town as you'll find.

(3) Shortage of land. Every bit of unbuilt land - even small plots that are only big enough for 10-20 houses - is being gobbled up by eager builders who sell half their houses when the houses don't even exist, and will not be built until 6 months after they're sold!

In this area, we have a total seller's market. The situation may drift back and become somewhat more of a buyer's market (and I actually would see that as positive), but there's no way it's going to become a total buyer's market. I don't know how young families buy into Washington, but it really doesn't matter. SOMEONE is buying, as fast as they can!

Silly me! I forgot to put the link to that quote:

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2005/07/washington_dc_bubble.html

Oh...and the time when that particular homeowner said those words...July, 2005.

Gosh those arguments sound all too familiar, don't they? You know what the difference between 2005 and 2013 in the DC area was? At least you still had expanding federal budgets, that's stopped...so PLEASE! raise those same bullsh*t arguments to support price-to-income ratios higher than the 30 year average on a housing market ready to fall again.

Completely different situation with the type of loans and buyers and by 2005 the boom had already been going on for 5 years.

Todays buyers are very qualified and have a lot of extra income and savings to brunt any dips in the market. The previous glut of buyers who started the drop in prices couldn't afford their homes with continual appreciation.

I'm sorry, but that's complete nonsense. My wife and I were approved for a $550K mortgage on a combined income of $110K, with 5% down on a conventional 30-year fixed. Highest midpoint credit score was 680. This was operated through BofA. It took them four hours to pre-approve. If that's what you're considering "very qualified" then I have to question your sanity.

Gotta agree. To me, all the talk about stricter lending standards is hype. With interest rates so low, banks are actually MORE enticed to lend riskily because their margin for error can be greater and still make a profit.

Add to the fact that there is already publicized growing political pressure for banks to ease up lending standards:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-administration-pushes-banks-to-make-home-loans-to-people-with-weaker-credit/2013/04/02/a8b4370c-9aef-11e2-a941-a19bce7af755_story.html

Yeah...gonna agree, market fundamentals points us to 2000-2001 levels for home prices, on an inflation adjusted basis. We had previous dips and rises in the econoomy because the government was able to take on more and more debt to leverage the country up (look at the cycles that people point to, they always coordinate with an increase in government deficit). The simple fact of the matter is that the Fed has played it's best card, and it's helping buoy the markets along...once that artificial support falls, you're going to see a return to 2000 level home prices on an inflation adjusted basis.

Right now, in the DC market, the average home price to household income ratio is 3.5, over the past 30 years, that number has been 2.7. The ONLY reason that people are able to spend more for a house right now is low interest rates, job growth in the area has remained flat, and incomes haven't risen...so what else could be driving the increase in demand?

+1 This is all driven by low interest rates. People with real money aren't buying $800k ramblers in North Arlington. The buyers are middle class professionals who can only afford to pay those prices because the Fed's efforts have kept interest rates low. When interest rates go back up, no one will be buying those overpriced crap houses anymore.