There is no housing bubble in the DC area so get over it

[Anonymous]

Ah. Okay, well at least this explains why you seem to know so little.

Care to clarify instead of condescend and then walk away?

[Anonymous]

location location location

if you bought a SFH, inside the beltway, near a metro with good schools you should be fine because there isn't enough land to build new homes there. Again you have a situation of low supply. If would be an issue If all of a sudden people started dumping there homes in the current coveted areas.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think it's a "bubble" but I do think that prices are driven by 1) current inventory being low 2) low interest rates 3) a lot of people who have wanted to buy or sell in the past few years but waited.

The "bubble" will burst only if we have too much supply and not enough demand. Demand may go down once budgets are cut or interest rates go up. The question then will be, what will inventory do?

I think that with the rental market the way that it is, more people will rent out their properties, rather than sell it for less than they want to get.

I just did this recently - I didn't need the money for a down payment, so instead of selling my SFH, I rented it - for more than I pay.

I'll rent it as long as it is profitable to do so, or until I can sell it for a nice surplus.

The supply side is peculiar. As the DC area is notoriously slow to process foreclosures.

Also, there was a massive increase in new build permits, especially for multi-unit dwellings, in the past year. I think rents are going to become a lot more competitive over the next three years.

http://m.theatlanticcities.com/housing/2012/05/top-us-cities-new-home-construction/1935/

Yes, but there are not a lot of places to put new building. So those of us who own properties in desireable areas, such as on a metro, may not have to worry about new building permits.

Are you including the areas in VA from McLean out to Dulles in your analysis? Remember, the Silver Line is slated to open up to go from DC all the way out to Dulles, have you seen the amount of multi-unit construction out that way lately?!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:location location location

if you bought a SFH, inside the beltway, near a metro with good schools you should be fine because there isn't enough land to build new homes there. Again you have a situation of low supply. If would be an issue If all of a sudden people started dumping there homes in the current coveted areas.

Example?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:location location location

if you bought a SFH, inside the beltway, near a metro with good schools you should be fine because there isn't enough land to build new homes there. Again you have a situation of low supply. If would be an issue If all of a sudden people started dumping there homes in the current coveted areas.

Example?

falls church city, mclean, bethesda etc...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:location location location

if you bought a SFH, inside the beltway, near a metro with good schools you should be fine because there isn't enough land to build new homes there. Again you have a situation of low supply. If would be an issue If all of a sudden people started dumping there homes in the current coveted areas.

Example?

falls church city, mclean, bethesda etc...

Awesome. Not that an anonymous forum poster should validate my housing choices, but apparently we scored since we are in one of the coveted areas....I feel good...misspellings and all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:location location location

if you bought a SFH, inside the beltway, near a metro with good schools you should be fine because there isn't enough land to build new homes there. Again you have a situation of low supply. If would be an issue If all of a sudden people started dumping there homes in the current coveted areas.

Example?

falls church city, mclean, bethesda etc...

Awesome. Not that an anonymous forum poster should validate my housing choices, but apparently we scored since we are in one of the coveted areas....I feel good...misspellings and all.

Yeah, looks like that PP came out of a good school triangle.

[Anonymous]

I think banks are partially involved in this 'bubble' (if we want to call it this). We are another example of lending at its best - monthly income ~$4000, approved for $450K with 2% down. There is no way we could afford it if we went all the way to $450k. We are looking realistically at $300-$400k and that is a big stretch IMO, but many people don't bother to run the numbers themselves and are quick to spend what the bank tells them they can. Also, the lack of inventory almost requires you to continually look above the budget you initially set and blurs the lines of practicality.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:location location location

if you bought a SFH, inside the beltway, near a metro with good schools you should be fine because there isn't enough land to build new homes there. Again you have a situation of low supply. If would be an issue If all of a sudden people started dumping there homes in the current coveted areas.

Example?

falls church city, mclean, bethesda etc...

Falls Church home prices over the past decade:

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/VA-Falls-Church-home-value/r_4679/#metric=mt%3D34%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D8%26r%3D4679%252C244613%252C48809%252C244520%26el%3D0

Bethesda home prices over the past decade:

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/MD-Bethesda-home-value/r_37406/

McLean home prices over the past decade:

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/VA-Mc-Lean-home-value/r_46465/

McLean actually makes sense to me because of the Silver Line, that would definitely add economic value to the area, still not worth 2006 prices...but an argument could be made there. However, that depends on what rents go for in the area.

http://piggington.com/is_washington_dc_in_a_bubble_again

When you have people including escalation clauses going upwards of $150k on $500k houses, and a dozen bids coming in after the first showing, people making bids on houses without even seeing them firsthand...that's not a good sign of sustainability.

I'm sorry, but when local realtors are even going so far as to say that DC is in the beginning phase of a bubble...that should give you some pause when you realize that to them the "B" word is that which shall not be spoken!

http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2013/04/the-2013-real-estate-bubble.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think banks are partially involved in this 'bubble' (if we want to call it this). We are another example of lending at its best - monthly income ~$4000, approved for $450K with 2% down. There is no way we could afford it if we went all the way to $450k. We are looking realistically at $300-$400k and that is a big stretch IMO, but many people don't bother to run the numbers themselves and are quick to spend what the bank tells them they can. Also, the lack of inventory almost requires you to continually look above the budget you initially set and blurs the lines of practicality.

+1

[Anonymous]

Really? Noone is talking about the possibility of the mortgage interest deduction being reduced or possibly eliminated?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Really? Noone is talking about the possibility of the mortgage interest deduction being reduced or possibly eliminated?

This will never happen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Really? Noone is talking about the possibility of the mortgage interest deduction being reduced or possibly eliminated?

This will never happen.

Just like Sequestration "will never happen" (remember when Obama said that in the debate, that was a riot!)...the Ways and Means Committee heard testimonies yesterday on the subject, which would've been considered insane just a few years ago.

Remember, we had all interest deductions from 1913 until 1986, people thought it was crazy to get rid of them then...but good ol' Uncle Sam needed the money.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Really? Noone is talking about the possibility of the mortgage interest deduction being reduced or possibly eliminated?

This will never happen.

Just like a depreciating housing market could "never happen"...

Simple rule of thumb when it comes to the economy and government, never say "never".

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Really? Noone is talking about the possibility of the mortgage interest deduction being reduced or possibly eliminated?

This will never happen.

Just like Sequestration "will never happen" (remember when Obama said that in the debate, that was a riot!)...the Ways and Means Committee heard testimonies yesterday on the subject, which would've been considered insane just a few years ago.

Remember, we had all interest deductions from 1913 until 1986, people thought it was crazy to get rid of them then...but good ol' Uncle Sam needed the money.

+1