How is the spring close-in DMV housing market looking like?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Who's buying if the administration is laying off federal workers? Very curious to understand where the job growth is that's keeping demand strong because my sector is flat.

There are still plenty of people who can afford these homes. Lots of people with high HHI, well-performing investments, or family money. Don't underestimate the amount of family financial help in the DMV.

I know lots of people (including Feds) whose families helped them buy in Chevy Chase, Bethesda, Capitol Hill, and other desirable areas.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All the ones that we've noticed are looking to be pocket listings that have a "coming soon" sign in the yard which quickly reverts to "under contract" within days. This is in the Fairfax Station/Burke Centre area.

I think this area is the sweet spot for sub $1M 2000 sq ft+ SFHs that is still within the beltway. I've heard open houses are very busy, multiple offers, above list, no contingencies, etc. here.

Fairfax Station / Burke Center is very far outside of the Beltway. I would consider it an outer suburb, not close in

[Anonymous]

Inventory is still low. People with sub 5% mortgages aren't going to panic sell even if they lose their jobs. They'll try to get other jobs and cut back on spending before uprooting their families.

Plus lots of buyers are still in good financial shape. They're not going to stay in an apartment or condo if they have a growing family or they need a better school district.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Actual anecdotes only please, with rough location details

Arlington
- condos are buyers market
- townhouses are okay
- single family under $1.5M strong demand
- single family $1.6-$2m good
- single family $2.1M-$2.7M okay
- single above $2.8M weak

That is not what I’m seeing in Arlington. There’s little inventory. Overall, everything listed getting a contract within 2-3 weeds - townhouses and homes under 2.5 within a week, 3M within 4 weeks. Condos under a mil within 2 weeks.

Where in Arlington? Arlington is big

There are 8 zip codes in arlington. You can do a Zillow search to determine DOM for every zip code. Not only will you find that there are very few homes on the market comparatively, you also noticed the homes listed that sitting a bit longer are generally still under construction homes over 3M. Everything gets a contract within 2 weeks.

I think it's because so many of us have mortgages under 2% when we refinanced during COVID. I assume this is obvious, but moving to a lower COL area doesn't make sense if I have to get a more expensive mortgage.

This. Plus those formerly LCOL nicer areas aren't so LCOL anymore since the pandemic. The home values in those place had a higher % increase than the DC area over the last 5 years.

It doesn't make sense to give up your <3% mortgage to start over in a new area when there's not even a financial benefit to do so.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've heard from a couple of agent friends that many buyers are bidding against themselves right now. Seller's agents are claiming that there are multiple offers, or at least acting as though there are, and buyers gladly are coming up on initial offers. Thus, many houses selling for above ask are not a scenario where there were multiple offers; just dumb buyers.

No that would be idiotic real estate agents representing the buyers. You always request to see proof of other offers afters yours is accepted.

Yeah we just bought, and we had an escalation clause, and the sellers had to provide proof of the offer that kicked in our escalation clause. We were literally given a copy of the other offer.

That doesn't make sense. You make an offer and then escalate to your max. No other offers? Your initial bid wins. But in a competitive environment you have to assume the escalation clause IS the offer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All the ones that we've noticed are looking to be pocket listings that have a "coming soon" sign in the yard which quickly reverts to "under contract" within days. This is in the Fairfax Station/Burke Centre area.

I think this area is the sweet spot for sub $1M 2000 sq ft+ SFHs that is still within the beltway. I've heard open houses are very busy, multiple offers, above list, no contingencies, etc. here.

Fairfax Station / Burke Center is very far outside of the Beltway. I would consider it an outer suburb, not close in

Totally agree. It's just one of the few areas left where you can buy a 2000 sq ft recently renovated SFH for around $1M. You could still have a sub 45 minute driving commute to your DC job.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All the ones that we've noticed are looking to be pocket listings that have a "coming soon" sign in the yard which quickly reverts to "under contract" within days. This is in the Fairfax Station/Burke Centre area.

I think this area is the sweet spot for sub $1M 2000 sq ft+ SFHs that is still within the beltway. I've heard open houses are very busy, multiple offers, above list, no contingencies, etc. here.

Fairfax Station / Burke Center is very far outside of the Beltway. I would consider it an outer suburb, not close in

Are you a native? I grew up here and wouldn’t consider it an outer suburb. Anything past Woodbridge is an outer suburb. Anything in Fairfax county is not an outer burb and I’ve never heard that before.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All the ones that we've noticed are looking to be pocket listings that have a "coming soon" sign in the yard which quickly reverts to "under contract" within days. This is in the Fairfax Station/Burke Centre area.

I think this area is the sweet spot for sub $1M 2000 sq ft+ SFHs that is still within the beltway. I've heard open houses are very busy, multiple offers, above list, no contingencies, etc. here.

Fairfax Station / Burke Center is very far outside of the Beltway. I would consider it an outer suburb, not close in

I wouldn't say very far at all. Burke Center is maybe three miles further from the White House than Vienna. Fairfax Station just depends but it certainly isn't an exurb.

But not sure why that prior person referenced inside the beltway for these communities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All the ones that we've noticed are looking to be pocket listings that have a "coming soon" sign in the yard which quickly reverts to "under contract" within days. This is in the Fairfax Station/Burke Centre area.

I think this area is the sweet spot for sub $1M 2000 sq ft+ SFHs that is still within the beltway. I've heard open houses are very busy, multiple offers, above list, no contingencies, etc. here.

Fairfax Station / Burke Center is very far outside of the Beltway. I would consider it an outer suburb, not close in

Are you a native? I grew up here and wouldn’t consider it an outer suburb. Anything past Woodbridge is an outer suburb. Anything in Fairfax county is not an outer burb and I’ve never heard that before.

Yes - have lived in Falls Church my whole life. I guess it’s relative - Burke is far (from downtown DC) to me. Vienna is the furthest out I would consider inner suburb.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Inventory is still low. People with sub 5% mortgages aren't going to panic sell even if they lose their jobs. They'll try to get other jobs and cut back on spending before uprooting their families.

Plus lots of buyers are still in good financial shape. They're not going to stay in an apartment or condo if they have a growing family or they need a better school district.

This. They are stuck because the monthly payment (plus the mortgage interest deduction) net cost is far, far lower vs renting a place even half the size. As we all know rents are trending upwards and homes still appreciating. No way they are selling. This will further deplete inventory and continued sellers market

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All the ones that we've noticed are looking to be pocket listings that have a "coming soon" sign in the yard which quickly reverts to "under contract" within days. This is in the Fairfax Station/Burke Centre area.

I think this area is the sweet spot for sub $1M 2000 sq ft+ SFHs that is still within the beltway. I've heard open houses are very busy, multiple offers, above list, no contingencies, etc. here.

Fairfax Station / Burke Center is very far outside of the Beltway. I would consider it an outer suburb, not close in

I wouldn't say very far at all. Burke Center is maybe three miles further from the White House than Vienna. Fairfax Station just depends but it certainly isn't an exurb.

But not sure why that prior person referenced inside the beltway for these communities.

The pp is an idiot. Can’t read a map.

[Anonymous]

Burke and Fairfax Station are DC suburbs but close-in suburbs here means inside of the beltway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Inventory is still low. People with sub 5% mortgages aren't going to panic sell even if they lose their jobs. They'll try to get other jobs and cut back on spending before uprooting their families.

Plus lots of buyers are still in good financial shape. They're not going to stay in an apartment or condo if they have a growing family or they need a better school district.

This. They are stuck because the monthly payment (plus the mortgage interest deduction) net cost is far, far lower vs renting a place even half the size. As we all know rents are trending upwards and homes still appreciating. No way they are selling. This will further deplete inventory and continued sellers market

Selling it would cost around 100K for commission, taxes, closing costs, moving, repairs. Then I end up with a place that costs me same per month. this is why I have so many retired neighbors who did not downsize.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Inventory is still low. People with sub 5% mortgages aren't going to panic sell even if they lose their jobs. They'll try to get other jobs and cut back on spending before uprooting their families.

Plus lots of buyers are still in good financial shape. They're not going to stay in an apartment or condo if they have a growing family or they need a better school district.

This. They are stuck because the monthly payment (plus the mortgage interest deduction) net cost is far, far lower vs renting a place even half the size. As we all know rents are trending upwards and homes still appreciating. No way they are selling. This will further deplete inventory and continued sellers market

Selling it would cost around 100K for commission, taxes, closing costs, moving, repairs. Then I end up with a place that costs me same per month. this is why I have so many retired neighbors who did not downsize.

You're conveniently leaving out the lump of cash they would pocket from the sale. Sure, it might cost $100K to sell the $1.2M home, but they would be getting their money out. If I was a retiree thinking about downsizing, I'd do it now when I know I can still sell high vs. potentially have the market sour on me a year out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Inventory is still low. People with sub 5% mortgages aren't going to panic sell even if they lose their jobs. They'll try to get other jobs and cut back on spending before uprooting their families.

Plus lots of buyers are still in good financial shape. They're not going to stay in an apartment or condo if they have a growing family or they need a better school district.


This. They are stuck because the monthly payment (plus the mortgage interest deduction) net cost is far, far lower vs renting a place even half the size. As we all know rents are trending upwards and homes still appreciating. No way they are selling. This will further deplete inventory and continued sellers market


Selling it would cost around 100K for commission, taxes, closing costs, moving, repairs. Then I end up with a place that costs me same per month. this is why I have so many retired neighbors who did not downsize.


You're conveniently leaving out the lump of cash they would pocket from the sale. Sure, it might cost $100K to sell the $1.2M home, but they would be getting their money out. If I was a retiree thinking about downsizing, I'd do it now when I know I can still sell high vs. potentially have the market sour on me a year out.

Sure, but many of these seniors have homes that are valued more in the 800,000-1 million range. They have to go somewhere to live after they sell and that place will probably cost a similar amount (most seniors want to live near amenities, especially once you have time to enjoy them). If you sell and decide to live in a walkable area with nearby medical, groceries, etc. you are talking about close to the same price to buy.