How is the spring close-in DMV housing market looking like?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If you had various rental properties to sell right now, would you keep your SFH or your TH? Meaning which is likely to sell faster, and which would you expect to appreciate faster over the next 2-3 years?

Sell the TH. The supply of townhomes is much more elastic than single family homes. New townhouses can be built on 1000sq ft lots with a drive under garage and no yard. Single family homes require significantly more land and they will appreciate more over time than townhomes.

[Anonymous]

Capitol hill - things are moving but feels overpriced. In the last week, 2 homes closed but both about $100K below list.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Inventory is still low. People with sub 5% mortgages aren't going to panic sell even if they lose their jobs. They'll try to get other jobs and cut back on spending before uprooting their families.

Plus lots of buyers are still in good financial shape. They're not going to stay in an apartment or condo if they have a growing family or they need a better school district.

This. They are stuck because the monthly payment (plus the mortgage interest deduction) net cost is far, far lower vs renting a place even half the size. As we all know rents are trending upwards and homes still appreciating. No way they are selling. This will further deplete inventory and continued sellers market

Selling it would cost around 100K for commission, taxes, closing costs, moving, repairs. Then I end up with a place that costs me same per month. this is why I have so many retired neighbors who did not downsize.

You're conveniently leaving out the lump of cash they would pocket from the sale. Sure, it might cost $100K to sell the $1.2M home, but they would be getting their money out. If I was a retiree thinking about downsizing, I'd do it now when I know I can still sell high vs. potentially have the market sour on me a year out.

Getting it out to put where? A smaller house at a high interest rate? A plunging stock market? A back to get eaten up by inflation?

+1 It doesn't make financial sense for many older people to downsize these days. After locking in the loss of realtor commissions and transfer taxes, they would then pay just as much for that smaller house.

Many areas that historically appealed to retirees, such as beach communities, have skyrocketed in value over the last 5 years. It used to be that you could sell your NOVA home for a small fortune and spend a fraction of the proceeds on a place in a beach community in FL or some other area. That's no longer the case. Those areas have roughly doubled or even tripled or more in value since January 2020.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you had various rental properties to sell right now, would you keep your SFH or your TH? Meaning which is likely to sell faster, and which would you expect to appreciate faster over the next 2-3 years?

Sell the TH. The supply of townhomes is much more elastic than single family homes. New townhouses can be built on 1000sq ft lots with a drive under garage and no yard. Single family homes require significantly more land and they will appreciate more over time than townhomes.

It depends on what you do with the other one and the location of both. Townhomes in downtown DC (or close to) rent super easy and make relatively more money. SFH rent for less and are usually in areas that can be less desirable for renters. If you have to live in it, I would probably agree with PP above, sell TH and live in SFH.

I own 3 TH in DC (all in desirable areas) and there is still a big demand for rentals

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Capitol hill - things are moving but feels overpriced. In the last week, 2 homes closed but both about $100K below list.

Certain parts of DC proper, such as cap hill and u st, were extremely desirable until the pandemic crime spike due to extended school closures. The people who can afford the $1.5M+ rowhouse could also just take that $1.5M to the suburbs with better schools and safe neighborhoods to raise their families.

The demise of these once vibrant areas makes me so sad.

[Anonymous]

I am in Rosemont. Things are selling in one day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Inventory is still low. People with sub 5% mortgages aren't going to panic sell even if they lose their jobs. They'll try to get other jobs and cut back on spending before uprooting their families.

Plus lots of buyers are still in good financial shape. They're not going to stay in an apartment or condo if they have a growing family or they need a better school district.

This. They are stuck because the monthly payment (plus the mortgage interest deduction) net cost is far, far lower vs renting a place even half the size. As we all know rents are trending upwards and homes still appreciating. No way they are selling. This will further deplete inventory and continued sellers market

Selling it would cost around 100K for commission, taxes, closing costs, moving, repairs. Then I end up with a place that costs me same per month. this is why I have so many retired neighbors who did not downsize.

You're conveniently leaving out the lump of cash they would pocket from the sale. Sure, it might cost $100K to sell the $1.2M home, but they would be getting their money out. If I was a retiree thinking about downsizing, I'd do it now when I know I can still sell high vs. potentially have the market sour on me a year out.

How much are you actually getting out? You still have to live somewhere, which means the money goes straight back into another house. Or you take out a new loan at 7%.

Or you go rent somewhere and invest the $1.1MM which more than covers rent for a 2BR in great parts of the DMV.

Buy a dividend fund paying 3% which pays you $33,000 a year and market appreciation. Buy treasuries if you want to play it safe and get 4.5%.

You think older people think like you do?

Well, this was just an answer to a PP who made it seem like your only option is to purchase another house at a much higher interest rate...which I agree doesn't make sense and I would never do as an elderly couple looking to downsize.

The point is that you can rent in buildings with lots of amenities just using the interest on the sales proceeds of your home...so you now have all the liquidity of selling your house, and you can actually rent for cheaper than the annual interest you are receiving.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Inventory is still low. People with sub 5% mortgages aren't going to panic sell even if they lose their jobs. They'll try to get other jobs and cut back on spending before uprooting their families.

Plus lots of buyers are still in good financial shape. They're not going to stay in an apartment or condo if they have a growing family or they need a better school district.

This. They are stuck because the monthly payment (plus the mortgage interest deduction) net cost is far, far lower vs renting a place even half the size. As we all know rents are trending upwards and homes still appreciating. No way they are selling. This will further deplete inventory and continued sellers market

Selling it would cost around 100K for commission, taxes, closing costs, moving, repairs. Then I end up with a place that costs me same per month. this is why I have so many retired neighbors who did not downsize.

You're conveniently leaving out the lump of cash they would pocket from the sale. Sure, it might cost $100K to sell the $1.2M home, but they would be getting their money out. If I was a retiree thinking about downsizing, I'd do it now when I know I can still sell high vs. potentially have the market sour on me a year out.

How much are you actually getting out? You still have to live somewhere, which means the money goes straight back into another house. Or you take out a new loan at 7%.

Or you go rent somewhere and invest the $1.1MM which more than covers rent for a 2BR in great parts of the DMV.

Buy a dividend fund paying 3% which pays you $33,000 a year and market appreciation. Buy treasuries if you want to play it safe and get 4.5%.

You think older people think like you do?

Well, this was just an answer to a PP who made it seem like your only option is to purchase another house at a much higher interest rate...which I agree doesn't make sense and I would never do as an elderly couple looking to downsize.

The point is that you can rent in buildings with lots of amenities just using the interest on the sales proceeds of your home...so you now have all the liquidity of selling your house, and you can actually rent for cheaper than the annual interest you are receiving.

The point is that the only option is not to immediately go and buy a smaller home with 100% of your proceeds.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Capitol hill - things are moving but feels overpriced. In the last week, 2 homes closed but both about $100K below list.

Too many sellers (and their RE agents) on the Hill seem to think it's still a time when people were willing to look past comparatively high crime and uncertain public school situations because they had low interest rates. Those days are long over.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Inventory is still low. People with sub 5% mortgages aren't going to panic sell even if they lose their jobs. They'll try to get other jobs and cut back on spending before uprooting their families.

Plus lots of buyers are still in good financial shape. They're not going to stay in an apartment or condo if they have a growing family or they need a better school district.

This. They are stuck because the monthly payment (plus the mortgage interest deduction) net cost is far, far lower vs renting a place even half the size. As we all know rents are trending upwards and homes still appreciating. No way they are selling. This will further deplete inventory and continued sellers market

Selling it would cost around 100K for commission, taxes, closing costs, moving, repairs. Then I end up with a place that costs me same per month. this is why I have so many retired neighbors who did not downsize.

You're conveniently leaving out the lump of cash they would pocket from the sale. Sure, it might cost $100K to sell the $1.2M home, but they would be getting their money out. If I was a retiree thinking about downsizing, I'd do it now when I know I can still sell high vs. potentially have the market sour on me a year out.

How much are you actually getting out? You still have to live somewhere, which means the money goes straight back into another house. Or you take out a new loan at 7%.

Or you go rent somewhere and invest the $1.1MM which more than covers rent for a 2BR in great parts of the DMV.

Buy a dividend fund paying 3% which pays you $33,000 a year and market appreciation. Buy treasuries if you want to play it safe and get 4.5%.

You think older people think like you do?

Well, this was just an answer to a PP who made it seem like your only option is to purchase another house at a much higher interest rate...which I agree doesn't make sense and I would never do as an elderly couple looking to downsize.

The point is that you can rent in buildings with lots of amenities just using the interest on the sales proceeds of your home...so you now have all the liquidity of selling your house, and you can actually rent for cheaper than the annual interest you are receiving.

The point is that the only option is not to immediately go and buy a smaller home with 100% of your proceeds.

DP here. But where would they move? If they're staying in the area, then some believe that they might as well keep their current house. If they're moving somewhere else then the housing inflation for those areas has outpaced DC since 2020.

The real estate inflation (especially in the South and beach towns) has unfortunately altered plans for some retirees. Some might still sell their home and buy a condo, but that plan doesn't work for everyone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


The point is that the only option is not to immediately go and buy a smaller home with 100% of your proceeds.


DP here. But where would they move? If they're staying in the area, then some believe that they might as well keep their current house. If they're moving somewhere else then the housing inflation for those areas has outpaced DC since 2020.

The real estate inflation (especially in the South and beach towns) has unfortunately altered plans for some retirees. Some might still sell their home and buy a condo, but that plan doesn't work for everyone.

+1 Why would we rent in a building when we can walk from our driveway to the house in only a few feet. We have lived in those parking lot apartment buildings. No thanks. No thanks on the noise either. You cannot count on making money with the money you pull out of the house. Especially now. Plus you cannot rent something that is as nice as your home (and you are stuck with a landlord who may or may not be fix things or put in quality appliances, etc.) Ask me how I know.

We are waiting until we need to move to a CCRC. At that point we will sell. Those places are not cheap either, but they provide what elderly people need. People do not want to move to one of those until they need to (because they are $$$).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:


The point is that the only option is not to immediately go and buy a smaller home with 100% of your proceeds.


DP here. But where would they move? If they're staying in the area, then some believe that they might as well keep their current house. If they're moving somewhere else then the housing inflation for those areas has outpaced DC since 2020.

The real estate inflation (especially in the South and beach towns) has unfortunately altered plans for some retirees. Some might still sell their home and buy a condo, but that plan doesn't work for everyone.

+1 Why would we rent in a building when we can walk from our driveway to the house in only a few feet. We have lived in those parking lot apartment buildings. No thanks. No thanks on the noise either. You cannot count on making money with the money you pull out of the house. Especially now. Plus you cannot rent something that is as nice as your home (and you are stuck with a landlord who may or may not be fix things or put in quality appliances, etc.) Ask me how I know.

We are waiting until we need to move to a CCRC. At that point we will sell. Those places are not cheap either, but they provide what elderly people need. People do not want to move to one of those until they need to (because they are $$$).

I wonder if more retirees are skipping the "downsize to a smaller house" step in between the "SFH to raise the family" and "CCRC" steps?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:


The point is that the only option is not to immediately go and buy a smaller home with 100% of your proceeds.


DP here. But where would they move? If they're staying in the area, then some believe that they might as well keep their current house. If they're moving somewhere else then the housing inflation for those areas has outpaced DC since 2020.

The real estate inflation (especially in the South and beach towns) has unfortunately altered plans for some retirees. Some might still sell their home and buy a condo, but that plan doesn't work for everyone.

+1 Why would we rent in a building when we can walk from our driveway to the house in only a few feet. We have lived in those parking lot apartment buildings. No thanks. No thanks on the noise either. You cannot count on making money with the money you pull out of the house. Especially now. Plus you cannot rent something that is as nice as your home (and you are stuck with a landlord who may or may not be fix things or put in quality appliances, etc.) Ask me how I know.

We are waiting until we need to move to a CCRC. At that point we will sell. Those places are not cheap either, but they provide what elderly people need. People do not want to move to one of those until they need to (because they are $$$).

I wonder if more retirees are skipping the "downsize to a smaller house" step in between the "SFH to raise the family" and "CCRC" steps?

There is no break anymore with Gen X and Boomers marrying later in life and Millennials and Gen Z having kids even later in life.

My friends are all early 60s, none of their kids have yet to buy a house, none are engaged, none have kids. They still come home on holidays and events and stay in their childhood bedrooms and some like me the younger ones are still home.

It means you cant pack up that big house til yoru are like 70. Who the heck wants to pack up a 6,000 square foot house at 70 and then pay $100K realtor commission and closing costs plus moving costs and closing costs new places.

Very few. Most on my block who are 70-90 are still in their large home. A few bought small bungalows or small cheap condors where there are "snow birds"

My good buddy retired Bonita Springs Florida and bought a big house and tried to push us maybe to retire there. We visited him and realized we hate Florida but also I could buy a furnished small Condo for like $180K pay cash and just go a few months a year. Maybe rent it out when not there or let kids use it. To move to Florida would cost me almost $180K anyhow.

And I think Florida Condos are falling on older ones. I most likely in 2027 when retired get one for as little as $150K

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I can’t find it now but someone on Threads - a real person from the looks of their profile which I checked when I saw the post last night - said they missed out on a house in Arlington and there were eleven offers.

I made an offer on a house in Clifton about 6 wks ago and there were 11 offers on that one as well. Six with no contingencies, four at or above list, and three all cash. We offered significantly above list and all cash, but had not waived inspection and lost the house. Offers were due an hour after the close of the open house.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Inventory is still low. People with sub 5% mortgages aren't going to panic sell even if they lose their jobs. They'll try to get other jobs and cut back on spending before uprooting their families.

Plus lots of buyers are still in good financial shape. They're not going to stay in an apartment or condo if they have a growing family or they need a better school district.

This. They are stuck because the monthly payment (plus the mortgage interest deduction) net cost is far, far lower vs renting a place even half the size. As we all know rents are trending upwards and homes still appreciating. No way they are selling. This will further deplete inventory and continued sellers market

Selling it would cost around 100K for commission, taxes, closing costs, moving, repairs. Then I end up with a place that costs me same per month. this is why I have so many retired neighbors who did not downsize.

You're conveniently leaving out the lump of cash they would pocket from the sale. Sure, it might cost $100K to sell the $1.2M home, but they would be getting their money out. If I was a retiree thinking about downsizing, I'd do it now when I know I can still sell high vs. potentially have the market sour on me a year out.

Getting it out to put where? A smaller house at a high interest rate? A plunging stock market? A back to get eaten up by inflation?

+1 It doesn't make financial sense for many older people to downsize these days. After locking in the loss of realtor commissions and transfer taxes, they would then pay just as much for that smaller house.

Many areas that historically appealed to retirees, such as beach communities, have skyrocketed in value over the last 5 years. It used to be that you could sell your NOVA home for a small fortune and spend a fraction of the proceeds on a place in a beach community in FL or some other area. That's no longer the case. Those areas have roughly doubled or even tripled or more in value since January 2020.

True. The popular retirement areas offered sunshine + low-cost housing. Not anymore.