Better odds for full pay applicants

[Anonymous]

I am the PP who speculated that software is used as a substitute for direct need-based decision making. I think another PP hit the nail on the head - if the initial class is “mis-shaped” as in requiring too much financial aid the software tells them to make certain adjustments like take more kids from CT or private school. It is blended with other adjustments until the class has the characteristics it needs to have. This is backdoor need aware but the schools can get away with saying they are need blind because the individual applicant’s financial situation is not taken into account. But the fact that classes have such consistent ratios of financial need is no accident. Schools have financial aid budget and need to manage around it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My theory is that need blind schools are need blind in that they don’t look at the applicant’s financial situation individually but they have software that uses statistical analysis to make sure there will be a sufficient percentage of full pay students. The software sets the parameters- pct from private school, pct from this county or that county, etc

What is your evidence for this theory?

AFAIK, not one of the many tell-all books written by adcoms has stated this is true.

NP. I agree with the PP entirely, that algorithms drive decisions but adcoms don't have a role in the algorithms and may not know much about them at all. This is the multi-billion-dollar enrollment management industry.

What is unclear is at what point in the process the algorithms are involved, front, back, all of it, etc., and what of this adcoms can see in Slate, for example. I do believe adcoms at need-blind schools read the apps need-blind. We know for a fact that schools use algorithms to calculate likelihood of yield and we know that most colleges use the Landscape tool from College Board, which includes a lot of data at the level of the applicant's census tract.

Top colleges arrive at roughly the same % of the class getting grants year after year. They must do this by algorithm in the aggregate, like PP was suggesting.

Here is one random articles on the enrollment management industry, though plenty more can be googled:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/revenue-and-rankings-inside-the-multibillion-dollar-industry-shaping-college-admissions-e9faaabf

Just google something like "higher ed yield algorithm enrollment management" and you'll start to get a sense of the industry. Why this matters is that, ultimately, yield algorithms do play a role in admission decisions, possibly in ways that adcoms are not paying attention to or aren't even aware of. It might boil down to some sort of yield score in Slate.

This goes way back, e.g. from 2015, Student Yield Maximization Using Genetic Algorithm on a Predictive Enrollment Neural Network Model, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283186686_Student_Yield_Maximization_Using_Genetic_Algorithm_on_a_Predictive_Enrollment_Neural_Network_Model. "The primary objective of this research is to develop a scholarship distribution model that enables academic enrollment offices to maximize student yield through efficient scholarship distribution. This paper presents the design of and tests a multi-layer feed-forward neural network (NN) in modeling the student yield factor. For this model inputs are assumed to be ACT score, GPA/class-rank, EFC, FAFSA, zip code and scholarship award amount and the single output is the student yield, where a one/zero system for accepting/declining the offer in attending the university is considered. The network is trained by applying the back error propagation algorithm, and is tested on holdout samples."

The available data here in 2025 are more detailed. It's all about the data.

I heard that colleges can see when (by date) you added them to your “list” in scoir and who else is on your list. Is this true??

They can see when they were added to the Common App, certainly. I don't know about Scoir.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am the PP who speculated that software is used as a substitute for direct need-based decision making. I think another PP hit the nail on the head - if the initial class is “mis-shaped” as in requiring too much financial aid the software tells them to make certain adjustments like take more kids from CT or private school. It is blended with other adjustments until the class has the characteristics it needs to have. This is backdoor need aware but the schools can get away with saying they are need blind because the individual applicant’s financial situation is not taken into account. But the fact that classes have such consistent ratios of financial need is no accident. Schools have financial aid budget and need to manage around it.

+1

It's all about the data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am the PP who speculated that software is used as a substitute for direct need-based decision making. I think another PP hit the nail on the head - if the initial class is “mis-shaped” as in requiring too much financial aid the software tells them to make certain adjustments like take more kids from CT or private school. It is blended with other adjustments until the class has the characteristics it needs to have. This is backdoor need aware but the schools can get away with saying they are need blind because the individual applicant’s financial situation is not taken into account. But the fact that classes have such consistent ratios of financial need is no accident. Schools have financial aid budget and need to manage around it.

Interesting. So, at the end of the day, the Dean of Admissions or his/her proxy is dropping those kids who might need aid in favor of full pay?
And this year, is the theory that more of this happens now (or has already happened this month to be realistic) for RD?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is the difference between full pay and high pay?

Full pay pays in full. My family is high pay - we pay 72k of 85k tuition. So we get FA, but it’s pretty nominal.

NP. DC applied for FA- filed the FAFSA and CSS but didn't qualify for FA. Did AOs consider my kid as a full pay applicant?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is the difference between full pay and high pay?

Full pay pays in full. My family is high pay - we pay 72k of 85k tuition. So we get FA, but it’s pretty nominal.

NP. DC applied for FA- filed the FAFSA and CSS but didn't qualify for FA. Did AOs consider my kid as a full pay applicant?

Unclear. Possibly could mean that yield will be a problem bc kid is looking for $$$?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:YCBK talked about the changes to colleges this year (todays episode):

China applications way down “They're down. Some places, 30 to 40 percent. The number one source of international applicants is down.”

Anyway, let me not go off on that. So colleges are already going through that, right? And so they're going to do the budget-cutting things, freezing salaries, freezing hirings, letting faculty and administrators go, hiring more adjunct professors and less full professors.

But they got to increase the revenue, because that's not enough. So what I'm going to share today are ways I'm fully expecting colleges to either tighten their belts, but mostly increase the revenue. And I'm particularly going to focus on ways that impact admissions.

“I feel very confident about this, but I did talk to one school this week, and they confirmed”

1. “So the first thing that popped in my mind is they're going to increase their class size. Now not everybody can do this.”

“Now, not everybody can do it to the same extent. A lot of places are constrained because there's just no capacity, especially for 2025. 2026, they have a little bit more time to plan and budget, but they're going to do it to the extent to which they can.

So for example, if you can bring $40,000 more in per kid, and you can add 250 kids, you just brought $10 million into your budget.”

“Another thing I am expecting, and this is part of how you are going to meet your class, is converting doubles to triples.”

2. “Okay, another thing. Look for more kids to get admitted in a regular decision. For schools to go out with more acceptances.”

3. Endowment is not a quick fix answer to NIH cuts with current market performance.

4. “Go to the waitlist more.” I am fully, fully, fully expecting, and I'd be very surprised if I'm wrong on this, to see more waitlist activity, more colleges going to the waitlist because remember, they want more students, so they want more students, and so that means you take more people off the waitlist because there's no way of getting more students.

5. Next thing, more focus on full pay and high pay. It's just inevitable. “If you need money, you need to get money, and you get money from tuition-paying parents. You might want more families that are full-pell students. You may in your heart of hearts feel like our school would be better with that, but that's not paying your bills.”

“Then when you take into consideration even the schools that say they truly are need blind, and I agree they're degrees of this, they still have to intentionally travel to affluent areas in their recruitment. There's no way they can say we don't have to target affluent communities. It's just the reality. So of all those schools that say they're need blind, there's a bunch of them that really truly aren't even need blind.”


“It's going to be more or less schools that are need blind, so the ability to pay is going to be prioritized, and families with money are going to have a significant advantage. Now, at the most selective schools, I'll be honest, there's so many people that can pay that don't think the school with a 10% admit rate is going to a 40% admit rate.

It just doesn't work like that. But it will be noticeable. It's not going to be noticeable like that, but it will be noticeable, especially if you work in those institutions, or if you work with a significant number of kids that apply to the schools, I'm confident you're going to see a difference.”

More to come

From Your College Bound Kid | Admission Tips, Admission Trends & Admission Interviews: 15 Changes in Admissions to Expect in 2025 and 2026, Mar 16, 2025

Wow. Anyone else hear this today? Wondering if admissions officers will start going on the record later this month and talk about the changes. Has anyone seen unexpected early results from regular decision schools this month? To indicate they’re admitting larger regular decision classes or more full pay?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:YCBK talked about the changes to colleges this year (todays episode):

China applications way down “They're down. Some places, 30 to 40 percent. The number one source of international applicants is down.”

Anyway, let me not go off on that. So colleges are already going through that, right? And so they're going to do the budget-cutting things, freezing salaries, freezing hirings, letting faculty and administrators go, hiring more adjunct professors and less full professors.

But they got to increase the revenue, because that's not enough. So what I'm going to share today are ways I'm fully expecting colleges to either tighten their belts, but mostly increase the revenue. And I'm particularly going to focus on ways that impact admissions.

“I feel very confident about this, but I did talk to one school this week, and they confirmed”

1. “So the first thing that popped in my mind is they're going to increase their class size. Now not everybody can do this.”

“Now, not everybody can do it to the same extent. A lot of places are constrained because there's just no capacity, especially for 2025. 2026, they have a little bit more time to plan and budget, but they're going to do it to the extent to which they can.

So for example, if you can bring $40,000 more in per kid, and you can add 250 kids, you just brought $10 million into your budget.”

“Another thing I am expecting, and this is part of how you are going to meet your class, is converting doubles to triples.”

2. “Okay, another thing. Look for more kids to get admitted in a regular decision. For schools to go out with more acceptances.”

3. Endowment is not a quick fix answer to NIH cuts with current market performance.

4. “Go to the waitlist more.” I am fully, fully, fully expecting, and I'd be very surprised if I'm wrong on this, to see more waitlist activity, more colleges going to the waitlist because remember, they want more students, so they want more students, and so that means you take more people off the waitlist because there's no way of getting more students.

5. Next thing, more focus on full pay and high pay. It's just inevitable. “If you need money, you need to get money, and you get money from tuition-paying parents. You might want more families that are full-pell students. You may in your heart of hearts feel like our school would be better with that, but that's not paying your bills.”

“Then when you take into consideration even the schools that say they truly are need blind, and I agree they're degrees of this, they still have to intentionally travel to affluent areas in their recruitment. There's no way they can say we don't have to target affluent communities. It's just the reality. So of all those schools that say they're need blind, there's a bunch of them that really truly aren't even need blind.”


“It's going to be more or less schools that are need blind, so the ability to pay is going to be prioritized, and families with money are going to have a significant advantage. Now, at the most selective schools, I'll be honest, there's so many people that can pay that don't think the school with a 10% admit rate is going to a 40% admit rate.

It just doesn't work like that. But it will be noticeable. It's not going to be noticeable like that, but it will be noticeable, especially if you work in those institutions, or if you work with a significant number of kids that apply to the schools, I'm confident you're going to see a difference.”

More to come

From Your College Bound Kid | Admission Tips, Admission Trends & Admission Interviews: 15 Changes in Admissions to Expect in 2025 and 2026, Mar 16, 2025

Wow. Anyone else hear this today? Wondering if admissions officers will start going on the record later this month and talk about the changes. Has anyone seen unexpected early results from regular decision schools this month? To indicate they’re admitting larger regular decision classes or more full pay?

On Reddit there seems to be an increase in the number of students that were waitlisted at T40s during RD decisions to date vs 2024 round but there are still several schools remaining until March 27th.

[Anonymous]

We are full pay and no.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Without aid, grants, DEI and affirmative action, is it going to be the year of wealthy Caucasian applicants?

Why "caucasian"? There are plenty of wealthy people of all backgrounds.

[Anonymous]

Waitlists aren’t need blind

If I were a college, I’d add more kids to the waitlist. Then open those financial documents are take it from there.

I live in nyc where, sure, sometimes your address says it all. But in my Brooklyn apartment building we have teachers and millionaires. Not atypical.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:YCBK talked about the changes to colleges this year (todays episode):

China applications way down “They're down. Some places, 30 to 40 percent. The number one source of international applicants is down.”

Anyway, let me not go off on that. So colleges are already going through that, right? And so they're going to do the budget-cutting things, freezing salaries, freezing hirings, letting faculty and administrators go, hiring more adjunct professors and less full professors.

But they got to increase the revenue, because that's not enough. So what I'm going to share today are ways I'm fully expecting colleges to either tighten their belts, but mostly increase the revenue. And I'm particularly going to focus on ways that impact admissions.

“I feel very confident about this, but I did talk to one school this week, and they confirmed”

1. “So the first thing that popped in my mind is they're going to increase their class size. Now not everybody can do this.”

“Now, not everybody can do it to the same extent. A lot of places are constrained because there's just no capacity, especially for 2025. 2026, they have a little bit more time to plan and budget, but they're going to do it to the extent to which they can.

So for example, if you can bring $40,000 more in per kid, and you can add 250 kids, you just brought $10 million into your budget.”

“Another thing I am expecting, and this is part of how you are going to meet your class, is converting doubles to triples.”

2. “Okay, another thing. Look for more kids to get admitted in a regular decision. For schools to go out with more acceptances.”

3. Endowment is not a quick fix answer to NIH cuts with current market performance.

4. “Go to the waitlist more.” I am fully, fully, fully expecting, and I'd be very surprised if I'm wrong on this, to see more waitlist activity, more colleges going to the waitlist because remember, they want more students, so they want more students, and so that means you take more people off the waitlist because there's no way of getting more students.

5. Next thing, more focus on full pay and high pay. It's just inevitable. “If you need money, you need to get money, and you get money from tuition-paying parents. You might want more families that are full-pell students. You may in your heart of hearts feel like our school would be better with that, but that's not paying your bills.”

“Then when you take into consideration even the schools that say they truly are need blind, and I agree they're degrees of this, they still have to intentionally travel to affluent areas in their recruitment. There's no way they can say we don't have to target affluent communities. It's just the reality. So of all those schools that say they're need blind, there's a bunch of them that really truly aren't even need blind.”


“It's going to be more or less schools that are need blind, so the ability to pay is going to be prioritized, and families with money are going to have a significant advantage. Now, at the most selective schools, I'll be honest, there's so many people that can pay that don't think the school with a 10% admit rate is going to a 40% admit rate.

It just doesn't work like that. But it will be noticeable. It's not going to be noticeable like that, but it will be noticeable, especially if you work in those institutions, or if you work with a significant number of kids that apply to the schools, I'm confident you're going to see a difference.”

More to come

From Your College Bound Kid | Admission Tips, Admission Trends & Admission Interviews: 15 Changes in Admissions to Expect in 2025 and 2026, Mar 16, 2025

Saw the below from a Vanderbilt professor on Twitter (commenting on my merit scholarship announcements have not been made yet) and thought of this thread. Yikes. Sounds like a lot of disarray in admissions offices:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Vanderbilt/s/rVIlp8tnnK

“Prof here. Sorry to hear we're several weeks behind.

I can't say for sure, but there are a couple things going on that relate to concerns over federal funding and reductions in the endowment fund.

I know we were about a month behind in awarding fellowships for PhD students, so I imagine the undergraduate scholarships are behind as well. The good news is it seems we were able to offer a similar number of fellowships compared to previous years.

Basically, the school is anticipating (1) a reduction in federally funded grants and contracts, and (2) an economic downturn that will reduce the valuation of the endowment. I would bet that the university leadership is trying to predict how much money they can spend on various activities (including scholarships).

I suspect that scholarships and financial aid are going to be highly protected -- that is, the school will prioritize scholarships and financial aid over things when deciding budget changes (and anyway, some of the endowment is almost certainly earmarked only for financial aid and scholarships that cannot be reallocated). They're just taking longer to account for the overall hit the school (and frankly every other school) will have to absorb.“

[Anonymous]

Curious how the RD decisions this week have come out for those needing aid versus those that don’t from private universities.

I’m not sure if there’s a systematic way to track if the current chaos is making a difference at places like Tufts or not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Curious how the RD decisions this week have come out for those needing aid versus those that don’t from private universities.

I’m not sure if there’s a systematic way to track if the current chaos is making a difference at places like Tufts or not.

Just one anecdote, this week's RD results, 3.98uw/1570 and full pay, admitted to GWU Elliot with 28k scholarship. Waitlisted at Tufts. Did not visit GW. Did the campus tour at Tufts fall 2023.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Curious how the RD decisions this week have come out for those needing aid versus those that don’t from private universities.

I’m not sure if there’s a systematic way to track if the current chaos is making a difference at places like Tufts or not.

Just one anecdote, this week's RD results, 3.98uw/1570 and full pay, admitted to GWU Elliot with 28k scholarship. Waitlisted at Tufts. Did not visit GW. Did the campus tour at Tufts fall 2023.

Tufts takes a lot of their class ED and they still put your kid on the waitlist. I could see your kid potentially coming off it.