Feels like market is hitting a wall

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

You....missed the point, PP. Home prices were very high in 2006 and the market crashed in 2008, home prices were lower in 2009. But keep it up with the math, good job, I'm so proud of you!!!

2008 was due to lax lending standards. That is no longer happening. No one can promise a crash in 1 to 2 years for those of us who have scrimped and saved for our first home. When will this market at least run out of cash buyers?

Patience grasshopper. It’s going to crack. About 10 percent of low rate era mortgages are adjustable and haven’t hit yet. Air bnb owners are getting crushed and those homes will have to sell. That will be the beginning. Commercial RE is in collapse and much of that land will be converted to housing because it’s the only feasible productive use. We are headed into wild economic times. The debt and deficit have moved into an exponential vortex that is quickly making serious issues.

Once the fed stops hiking, the 10 yr will organically come down bringing mortgage rates along with it.

Stop spreading fear. 2023/2024 may be restrictive in the housing market, but hopefully, we are nearing peak rates (which is the likely scenario).

If there is an economic calamity, rates will decline substantially, benefiting buyers with their cash on hand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

You....missed the point, PP. Home prices were very high in 2006 and the market crashed in 2008, home prices were lower in 2009. But keep it up with the math, good job, I'm so proud of you!!!

2008 was due to lax lending standards. That is no longer happening. No one can promise a crash in 1 to 2 years for those of us who have scrimped and saved for our first home. When will this market at least run out of cash buyers?

Patience grasshopper. It’s going to crack. About 10 percent of low rate era mortgages are adjustable and haven’t hit yet. Air bnb owners are getting crushed and those homes will have to sell. That will be the beginning. Commercial RE is in collapse and much of that land will be converted to housing because it’s the only feasible productive use. We are headed into wild economic times. The debt and deficit have moved into an exponential vortex that is quickly making serious issues.

I might buy into your AirBnB prediction, but the commercial real estate thing is just silly. The potential buyer for a converted office space in some bland non-descript office park is not the same person looking to buy an acre of land in a good school system.

One will have no impact on the other

Buildings will be removed and different kinds of housing built

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

Some can some can't. Some are 50 and would like to own a house for the first time in their life.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

You....missed the point, PP. Home prices were very high in 2006 and the market crashed in 2008, home prices were lower in 2009. But keep it up with the math, good job, I'm so proud of you!!!

2008 was due to lax lending standards. That is no longer happening. No one can promise a crash in 1 to 2 years for those of us who have scrimped and saved for our first home. When will this market at least run out of cash buyers?

Patience grasshopper. It’s going to crack. About 10 percent of low rate era mortgages are adjustable and haven’t hit yet. Air bnb owners are getting crushed and those homes will have to sell. That will be the beginning. Commercial RE is in collapse and much of that land will be converted to housing because it’s the only feasible productive use. We are headed into wild economic times. The debt and deficit have moved into an exponential vortex that is quickly making serious issues.

Once the fed stops hiking, the 10 yr will organically come down bringing mortgage rates along with it.

Stop spreading fear. 2023/2024 may be restrictive in the housing market, but hopefully, we are nearing peak rates (which is the likely scenario).

If there is an economic calamity, rates will decline substantially, benefiting buyers with their cash on hand.

...and benefitting recent buyers with high rates who could afford to stomach those rates for the short term (or willing to do so for the long term, but will no longer have to).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

Some can some can't. Some are 50 and would like to own a house for the first time in their life.

I'd like to be thin and live at the beach. We can't always have what we want.

[Anonymous]

There is still so little for sale in our neighborhood that when they do pop up they are gone in a day and at or above asking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

Some can some can't. Some are 50 and would like to own a house for the first time in their life.

Those people should have bought earlier in life, they had the opportunity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

You....missed the point, PP. Home prices were very high in 2006 and the market crashed in 2008, home prices were lower in 2009. But keep it up with the math, good job, I'm so proud of you!!!

2008 was due to lax lending standards. That is no longer happening. No one can promise a crash in 1 to 2 years for those of us who have scrimped and saved for our first home. When will this market at least run out of cash buyers?

Why do you think all buyers are cash buyers? They're not, they are just normal buyers willing to deal with a 6-7% interest rate because that's actually not that high.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It definitely seems like houses are sitting longer. Hopefully, the market is finally correcting. Good houses priced well are still selling, but too many people still want too much for their homes.

It's August, dipshit.

See post above for the math, prices will be going down, money doesn't grow on trees

People have been saying this for the past 2 years.

On this board there have been posters saying we’re in a bubble since 2012.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

Some can some can't. Some are 50 and would like to own a house for the first time in their life.

I'd like to be thin and live at the beach. We can't always have what we want.

Bullies are usually the most cowardly of all people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

Some can some can't. Some are 50 and would like to own a house for the first time in their life.

Those people should have bought earlier in life, they had the opportunity.

You don’t know anything about their lives.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

You....missed the point, PP. Home prices were very high in 2006 and the market crashed in 2008, home prices were lower in 2009. But keep it up with the math, good job, I'm so proud of you!!!

2008 was due to lax lending standards. That is no longer happening. No one can promise a crash in 1 to 2 years for those of us who have scrimped and saved for our first home. When will this market at least run out of cash buyers?

Patience grasshopper. It’s going to crack. About 10 percent of low rate era mortgages are adjustable and haven’t hit yet. Air bnb owners are getting crushed and those homes will have to sell. That will be the beginning. Commercial RE is in collapse and much of that land will be converted to housing because it’s the only feasible productive use. We are headed into wild economic times. The debt and deficit have moved into an exponential vortex that is quickly making serious issues.

People are AirBnB’ing close-in suburbs? You’re going to see issues in Vegas, Orlando, Phoenix - but this area - esp with RTO initiatives - should remain stable.

Have you ever done a search for your neighborhood? I just did one for just Old Town Alexandria and got over 300 hits. Arlington County has over 1,000. Many of those are condos, but flipping through the photos, there are SFHs in there as well.

[Anonymous]

I don't know if the market is about to correct or not, but from this potential buyer's perspective it does appear to have ground almost to a halt. I myself am no longer actively looking, after having been substantially outbid earlier this year at ridiculous prices. The reason for the slowdown isn't that buyers can't buy, it's that sellers can't buy and that's why eventually this will all need to crack up-- or we will be looking at a decade of a broken real estate market. Markets usually correct unless governments make bad policy choices-- both outcomes are equally likely IMO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

You....missed the point, PP. Home prices were very high in 2006 and the market crashed in 2008, home prices were lower in 2009. But keep it up with the math, good job, I'm so proud of you!!!

2008 was due to lax lending standards. That is no longer happening. No one can promise a crash in 1 to 2 years for those of us who have scrimped and saved for our first home. When will this market at least run out of cash buyers?

Why do you think all buyers are cash buyers? They're not, they are just normal buyers willing to deal with a 6-7% interest rate because that's actually not that high.

you say "deal with" as if monopoly money is involved not real money. No matter your dreams, people are not "dealing with it" and not buying.

[Anonymous]

Interest rates just hit the highest point in over TWENTY years.