Feels like market is hitting a wall

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

It is unlikely that rates will ever be below 3% again. We just got spoiled over the last few years. Looking at historic mortgage rates. 5% - 7% is not unreasonable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

It is unlikely that rates will ever be below 3% again. We just got spoiled over the last few years. Looking at historic mortgage rates. 5% - 7% is not unreasonable.

Back in 1995 "experts" were telling us "we'll never see rates lower than 7%...."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In my exurb, 600k houses are selling fast, 4-500k townhouses are mixed, and 7-800k houses are sitting. So There’s still a strong demand for a sweet spot, but outside of that stuff is sitting.

Nobody in their right mind would pay $800,000 to live in an exurb. Plenty of other options closer in at that price.

In my exburb in MD, homes 800-1.2 are going under contract in under a week still.

Lots of folks like their peace and quiet, especially with little reason to go downtown anymore

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Only a month or two left before student loan repayments restart. I expect to see a bigger shift in the market once that happens. And if spring season is a dud next year, that could impact prices

The people buying million dollar houses aren't concerned about their student loan repayments.

Tell that to the new lawyer, doctor, or PE associate. They have the cash flow for a home, doesn’t mean they aren’t cornered about their student loan payment.

They knew this when they signed the docs for their loans. Pay what you owe, build it into your budget. One would think and assume all of these "lawyers, doctors and PE associates" have the basic knowledge to understand this.

Exactly. They will "built it into [their] budget" by deferring home purchases because suddenly they can only afford $2K-$3K less per month. Economists are predicting a slowdown in consumer spending beginning in October because of student loan payments.

[Anonymous]

There's no inventory. The number of new listings in the DC area in July was a two-decade low and 34.4 percent fewer than last July. The median home price in the DC area was 4.8 percent *higher* than a year ago, the biggest jump since June 2022.

https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/a_20-year_low_the_number_of_homes_for_sale_in_the_dc_area_falls_to_new_dept/21348

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Only a month or two left before student loan repayments restart. I expect to see a bigger shift in the market once that happens. And if spring season is a dud next year, that could impact prices

The people buying million dollar houses aren't concerned about their student loan repayments.

Tell that to the new lawyer, doctor, or PE associate. They have the cash flow for a home, doesn’t mean they aren’t cornered about their student loan payment.

People straight out of grad school aren't buying houses, they are renting. Always have, always will. I rented for 15 years before I bought a place at age 36. People have always had student loan payments, this is not a new thing. I don't know why Gen Z and Millennials think that they are so special and are the only people who have had to deal with this. Grow up and stop playing the victim.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Only a month or two left before student loan repayments restart. I expect to see a bigger shift in the market once that happens. And if spring season is a dud next year, that could impact prices

The people buying million dollar houses aren't concerned about their student loan repayments.

Tell that to the new lawyer, doctor, or PE associate. They have the cash flow for a home, doesn’t mean they aren’t cornered about their student loan payment.

They knew this when they signed the docs for their loans. Pay what you owe, build it into your budget. One would think and assume all of these "lawyers, doctors and PE associates" have the basic knowledge to understand this.

Exactly. They will "built it into [their] budget" by deferring home purchases because suddenly they can only afford $2K-$3K less per month. Economists are predicting a slowdown in consumer spending beginning in October because of student loan payments.

Who is paying $3000/month in student loans?

[Anonymous]

I live in the exurbs and houses in our neighborhood are still listing on a Thursday with offer deadlines for Monday. Three of them in my area were under contract this evening.

[Anonymous]

On the positive side, 3 friends who have been looking in upper NW for about five months to a year and a half finally went under contract in the last month. I bought 3 years ago (under contract in July and closed in August) and similarly was able to “win” a house because there were only 4 offers instead of the 10+ on the houses I had been bidding on in April and May. So, I think this is a return to the normal of 2+ years ago. Last summer was bonkers, so this feels “slow” but a lot of houses are still getting offers

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Only a month or two left before student loan repayments restart. I expect to see a bigger shift in the market once that happens. And if spring season is a dud next year, that could impact prices

The people buying million dollar houses aren't concerned about their student loan repayments.

Tell that to the new lawyer, doctor, or PE associate. They have the cash flow for a home, doesn’t mean they aren’t cornered about their student loan payment.

They knew this when they signed the docs for their loans. Pay what you owe, build it into your budget. One would think and assume all of these "lawyers, doctors and PE associates" have the basic knowledge to understand this.

Exactly. They will "built it into [their] budget" by deferring home purchases because suddenly they can only afford $2K-$3K less per month. Economists are predicting a slowdown in consumer spending beginning in October because of student loan payments.

Who is paying $3000/month in student loans?

Married couples. My husband and I paid a little over 2k/month combined for student loans from lawschool. We knew people who had higher debt loads too.

This was a number of years ago, but I can't imagine that's not still the case for many new grads.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Only a month or two left before student loan repayments restart. I expect to see a bigger shift in the market once that happens. And if spring season is a dud next year, that could impact prices

The people buying million dollar houses aren't concerned about their student loan repayments.

Tell that to the new lawyer, doctor, or PE associate. They have the cash flow for a home, doesn’t mean they aren’t cornered about their student loan payment.

They knew this when they signed the docs for their loans. Pay what you owe, build it into your budget. One would think and assume all of these "lawyers, doctors and PE associates" have the basic knowledge to understand this.

Exactly. They will "built it into [their] budget" by deferring home purchases because suddenly they can only afford $2K-$3K less per month. Economists are predicting a slowdown in consumer spending beginning in October because of student loan payments.

Who is paying $3000/month in student loans?

It's extremely common in this area. Undergrad and grad school don't come cheap. Can you imagine having an extra $3K in spending money every month for the past 3.5 years that will suddenly go away? Some people were very responsible and built up sizeable down payments rather than spending the money on frivolous purchases.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Only a month or two left before student loan repayments restart. I expect to see a bigger shift in the market once that happens. And if spring season is a dud next year, that could impact prices

The people buying million dollar houses aren't concerned about their student loan repayments.

Yes they are!

[Anonymous]

Higher rates make it way easier for first time Buyers.

Looked I saved up for my first home in the 1990s and bought Dec 1999. The high interest rates allowed me to save up in money markets, savings accounts, investment grade bond funds etc quickly and with low risk. Home prices were stable. I save up from 1992-1999 and put 40 percent down.

If rates with 8 for rest of decade on mortgages will be great. Just park cash in bank and earn 6-7 percent risk feee till 2030 then buy