Feels like market is hitting a wall

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It definitely seems like houses are sitting longer. Hopefully, the market is finally correcting. Good houses priced well are still selling, but too many people still want too much for their homes.

It's August, dipshit.

See post above for the math, prices will be going down, money doesn't grow on trees

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

You....missed the point, PP. Home prices were very high in 2006 and the market crashed in 2008, home prices were lower in 2009. But keep it up with the math, good job, I'm so proud of you!!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

You....missed the point, PP. Home prices were very high in 2006 and the market crashed in 2008, home prices were lower in 2009. But keep it up with the math, good job, I'm so proud of you!!!

2008 was due to lax lending standards. That is no longer happening. No one can promise a crash in 1 to 2 years for those of us who have scrimped and saved for our first home. When will this market at least run out of cash buyers?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

You....missed the point, PP. Home prices were very high in 2006 and the market crashed in 2008, home prices were lower in 2009. But keep it up with the math, good job, I'm so proud of you!!!

2008 was due to lax lending standards. That is no longer happening. No one can promise a crash in 1 to 2 years for those of us who have scrimped and saved for our first home. When will this market at least run out of cash buyers?

Patience grasshopper. It’s going to crack. About 10 percent of low rate era mortgages are adjustable and haven’t hit yet. Air bnb owners are getting crushed and those homes will have to sell. That will be the beginning. Commercial RE is in collapse and much of that land will be converted to housing because it’s the only feasible productive use. We are headed into wild economic times. The debt and deficit have moved into an exponential vortex that is quickly making serious issues.

[Anonymous]

In TOV where I am, houses are finally sitting and some even getting price cuts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

Yes and easy to do. My cousin back when Interest rates high in 1980s got married. She and husband both had decent jobs. They moved to a tiny studio apt. in Queens NY in a dump area. They had two full time jobs. Both worked Saturday and Sunday at a catering hall. They saved a ton in two years.

When I got married I saved 60 percent of my income first two years. Not hard to do wife moved into my cheap apt I could afford in my income and 100 percent her check went to downpayment fund. I also saved 10 percent of my income. But my income only same as hers and paying bills

Your income doubles when you marry buy expenses stay the same of you moved into an existing place. Then if you both get second jobs and get some 5 percent interest income boom

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

You....missed the point, PP. Home prices were very high in 2006 and the market crashed in 2008, home prices were lower in 2009. But keep it up with the math, good job, I'm so proud of you!!!

2008 was due to lax lending standards. That is no longer happening. No one can promise a crash in 1 to 2 years for those of us who have scrimped and saved for our first home. When will this market at least run out of cash buyers?

Patience grasshopper. It’s going to crack. About 10 percent of low rate era mortgages are adjustable and haven’t hit yet. Air bnb owners are getting crushed and those homes will have to sell. That will be the beginning. Commercial RE is in collapse and much of that land will be converted to housing because it’s the only feasible productive use. We are headed into wild economic times. The debt and deficit have moved into an exponential vortex that is quickly making serious issues.

People are AirBnB’ing close-in suburbs? You’re going to see issues in Vegas, Orlando, Phoenix - but this area - esp with RTO initiatives - should remain stable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

DP here but who waits until they have a 50% down payment to buy a house?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

You....missed the point, PP. Home prices were very high in 2006 and the market crashed in 2008, home prices were lower in 2009. But keep it up with the math, good job, I'm so proud of you!!!

2008 was due to lax lending standards. That is no longer happening. No one can promise a crash in 1 to 2 years for those of us who have scrimped and saved for our first home. When will this market at least run out of cash buyers?

Patience grasshopper. It’s going to crack. About 10 percent of low rate era mortgages are adjustable and haven’t hit yet. Air bnb owners are getting crushed and those homes will have to sell. That will be the beginning. Commercial RE is in collapse and much of that land will be converted to housing because it’s the only feasible productive use. We are headed into wild economic times. The debt and deficit have moved into an exponential vortex that is quickly making serious issues.

+1 I don't know what will happen, but I highly doubt that home prices will never come down again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

You....missed the point, PP. Home prices were very high in 2006 and the market crashed in 2008, home prices were lower in 2009. But keep it up with the math, good job, I'm so proud of you!!!

2008 was due to lax lending standards. That is no longer happening. No one can promise a crash in 1 to 2 years for those of us who have scrimped and saved for our first home. When will this market at least run out of cash buyers?

Patience grasshopper. It’s going to crack. About 10 percent of low rate era mortgages are adjustable and haven’t hit yet. Air bnb owners are getting crushed and those homes will have to sell. That will be the beginning. Commercial RE is in collapse and much of that land will be converted to housing because it’s the only feasible productive use. We are headed into wild economic times. The debt and deficit have moved into an exponential vortex that is quickly making serious issues.

I might buy into your AirBnB prediction, but the commercial real estate thing is just silly. The potential buyer for a converted office space in some bland non-descript office park is not the same person looking to buy an acre of land in a good school system.

One will have no impact on the other

[Anonymous]

TS - try saving

[Anonymous]

To afford a good house even at low rates you need between 6-7k a month towards mortgage, principal, taxes, utilities, upkeep.

My house for instance has a full finished basement with two bedrooms and bath. Let’s say my kid wanted to save up and newly married move into my basement. Put 7k a month into a low risk vanguard account, CD, Money Market mix it would build up quickly. It is assumed you already have savings and wedding gift money.

Walk dogs, be a bartender, babysit, consult, do side jobs maybe put another 3k a month in.

I guarantee you put 10k a month away at 5-6 percent interest it grows quick

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.

Buyers can always refinance later....

But no one knows when later will be and *for me* the idea of moving and losing a ton of disposable income for ~10 years until rates go down and we can refinance isn’t prudent, especially with young kids. In an ideal world we would move to a bigger home in NW but there is no way we could justify losing our current interest rate for 600-1000 more sqft. Our house works for us - it’s smaller than what we want - but the space more or less fits our needs and paying a premium for more space seems stupid/wasteful.

You already HAVE a house, what about those trying to buy their first house they have saved up for. It's really sad for those people.

They can rent another year or two. I really wanted a house in 2006, I waited until 2009.

I suppose that in 2006 people weren't required to learn basic math skills in high school either. My how times have changed.

Let's do some basic math then. For an $800K house at a 3-percent mortgage rate, principal and interest for a 30-year loan with 20% down ($160K) are a total of roughly $2700 a month.

In order to keep the $2700 monthly payment for principal and interest for the $800K house, at a 7-percent mortgage rate, the borrower has to put 50% down, or a total of $400K. This means that the borrower has to increase the downpayment by $240K.

Are you saying that it takes most households only 1 to 2 years to save $240K? I know math is sooooo hard isn't it?

You....missed the point, PP. Home prices were very high in 2006 and the market crashed in 2008, home prices were lower in 2009. But keep it up with the math, good job, I'm so proud of you!!!

2008 was due to lax lending standards. That is no longer happening. No one can promise a crash in 1 to 2 years for those of us who have scrimped and saved for our first home. When will this market at least run out of cash buyers?

Patience grasshopper. It’s going to crack. About 10 percent of low rate era mortgages are adjustable and haven’t hit yet. Air bnb owners are getting crushed and those homes will have to sell. That will be the beginning. Commercial RE is in collapse and much of that land will be converted to housing because it’s the only feasible productive use. We are headed into wild economic times. The debt and deficit have moved into an exponential vortex that is quickly making serious issues.

Mortgage delinquencies are at an all-time low.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-mortgage-delinquency-rates-fall-all-time-low-2023-08-10/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It definitely seems like houses are sitting longer. Hopefully, the market is finally correcting. Good houses priced well are still selling, but too many people still want too much for their homes.

It's August, dipshit.

See post above for the math, prices will be going down, money doesn't grow on trees

People have been saying this for the past 2 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:To afford a good house even at low rates you need between 6-7k a month towards mortgage, principal, taxes, utilities, upkeep.

My house for instance has a full finished basement with two bedrooms and bath. Let’s say my kid wanted to save up and newly married move into my basement. Put 7k a month into a low risk vanguard account, CD, Money Market mix it would build up quickly. It is assumed you already have savings and wedding gift money.

Walk dogs, be a bartender, babysit, consult, do side jobs maybe put another 3k a month in.

I guarantee you put 10k a month away at 5-6 percent interest it grows quick

Your privilege is showing. If housing is supposed to be 30% of your gross income, a "good" house at 6-7k requires you to make $216k per year. Do you know what the median family income is for this area?