When will it reset or crash

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:For those predicting a FL crash, the numbers and the experts disagree. And that’s not good news for the Northeast.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/miami-housing-market-cools-but-is-still-the-hottest-around-3928727a

The gains of­fer fresh ev­i­dence that Mi­a­mi’s hous­ing mar­ket is poised to re­main the strong­est of any U.S. city. Mi­ami posted the coun­try’s fastest year-over-year home-price growth at 15.9% in 2022, ac­cord­ing to the S&P Core­L­ogic Case-Shiller In­dex. 

Res­i­dents and busi­nesses con­tinue to flock to the Sun­shine State—and South Flor­ida in par­tic­u­lar—drawn by year-round warm weather, more lib­eral busi­ness reg­u­la­tion and the lack of a state in­come tax. Flor­ida gained more res­i­dents than any other state in 2022, ac­cord­ing to the U.S. Cen­sus Bu­reau data, while Mi­ami hous­ing in­ven­tory is down by about half com­pared with the first quar­ter of 2020. 

New York­ers and other North-east­ern­ers are some of the area’s most ac­tive home buy­ers. Most of the do­mes­tic dri­ver-li­cense changes came from New York last year, ac­cord­ing to data from the Flor­ida de­part­ment of mo­tor ve­hi­cles. Many of the new ar­rivals, ac­cus­tomed to the steep real-es­tate prices of New York City and its sub­urbs, helped bid up home prices and rents in Mi­ami. 

We're closing on a home in FL this week. I hope you're right, but I'm concerned that I might be the last idiot to buy before the crash.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For those predicting a FL crash, the numbers and the experts disagree. And that’s not good news for the Northeast.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/miami-housing-market-cools-but-is-still-the-hottest-around-3928727a

The gains of­fer fresh ev­i­dence that Mi­a­mi’s hous­ing mar­ket is poised to re­main the strong­est of any U.S. city. Mi­ami posted the coun­try’s fastest year-over-year home-price growth at 15.9% in 2022, ac­cord­ing to the S&P Core­L­ogic Case-Shiller In­dex. 

Res­i­dents and busi­nesses con­tinue to flock to the Sun­shine State—and South Flor­ida in par­tic­u­lar—drawn by year-round warm weather, more lib­eral busi­ness reg­u­la­tion and the lack of a state in­come tax. Flor­ida gained more res­i­dents than any other state in 2022, ac­cord­ing to the U.S. Cen­sus Bu­reau data, while Mi­ami hous­ing in­ven­tory is down by about half com­pared with the first quar­ter of 2020. 

New York­ers and other North-east­ern­ers are some of the area’s most ac­tive home buy­ers. Most of the do­mes­tic dri­ver-li­cense changes came from New York last year, ac­cord­ing to data from the Flor­ida de­part­ment of mo­tor ve­hi­cles. Many of the new ar­rivals, ac­cus­tomed to the steep real-es­tate prices of New York City and its sub­urbs, helped bid up home prices and rents in Mi­ami. 

We're closing on a home in FL this week. I hope you're right, but I'm concerned that I might be the last idiot to buy before the crash.

Layoffs are starting to show up in the jobs data. Specifically in the South (FL, TX, TN). New payroll data from ADP shows states across the South have lost jobs to start 2023. Meanwhile the coasts are still adding jobs.

Just a blip? Or start of a trend?

I wonder if this is the first evidence of a "reversion" away from the pandemic Sun Belt boom. Perhaps remote workers are getting called back into office. Or laid off. And need to move back to coasts. If that is happening, big problem for real estate in the South... Because there is just so much home building.

US Census shows roughly 800,000 homes actively under construction in the South in early 2023. That's almost 2x West Coast. And it's almost 4x Midwest/Northeast. Based on those home building figures...even a "slowdown" in job growth would be a big problem for real estate in states like Florida. But outright job losses, like what's occurred in 2023 so far? That would be devastating to real estate in the South.

Here's the jobs data in more granular detail from ADP: https://adpemploymentreport.com/

One curious thing to me is the job growth on the Pacific Coast to start 2023. I was NOT expecting that given all the tech layoffs the last six months.

Again - still early on this data. Only 2-3 months worth. But concerning for the South. Since there's really no margin for error in their housing market given how much building is occurring.

[Anonymous]

McKinsey predicts FL real estate prices to fall 15% on average by 2030 with south Florida making up the bulk of the drop.

Climate experts predict that by 2050 the chance of a 3-foot flood event in Miami is 100%, and if sea level rise continues at its expected pace Miami will be seeing over 150 flooding events per year by 2040.

If those predictions become a reality, south Florida will become uninsurable in the near future.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For those predicting a FL crash, the numbers and the experts disagree. And that’s not good news for the Northeast.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/miami-housing-market-cools-but-is-still-the-hottest-around-3928727a

The gains of­fer fresh ev­i­dence that Mi­a­mi’s hous­ing mar­ket is poised to re­main the strong­est of any U.S. city. Mi­ami posted the coun­try’s fastest year-over-year home-price growth at 15.9% in 2022, ac­cord­ing to the S&P Core­L­ogic Case-Shiller In­dex. 

Res­i­dents and busi­nesses con­tinue to flock to the Sun­shine State—and South Flor­ida in par­tic­u­lar—drawn by year-round warm weather, more lib­eral busi­ness reg­u­la­tion and the lack of a state in­come tax. Flor­ida gained more res­i­dents than any other state in 2022, ac­cord­ing to the U.S. Cen­sus Bu­reau data, while Mi­ami hous­ing in­ven­tory is down by about half com­pared with the first quar­ter of 2020. 

New York­ers and other North-east­ern­ers are some of the area’s most ac­tive home buy­ers. Most of the do­mes­tic dri­ver-li­cense changes came from New York last year, ac­cord­ing to data from the Flor­ida de­part­ment of mo­tor ve­hi­cles. Many of the new ar­rivals, ac­cus­tomed to the steep real-es­tate prices of New York City and its sub­urbs, helped bid up home prices and rents in Mi­ami. 

We're closing on a home in FL this week. I hope you're right, but I'm concerned that I might be the last idiot to buy before the crash.

Layoffs are starting to show up in the jobs data. Specifically in the South (FL, TX, TN). New payroll data from ADP shows states across the South have lost jobs to start 2023. Meanwhile the coasts are still adding jobs.

Just a blip? Or start of a trend?

I wonder if this is the first evidence of a "reversion" away from the pandemic Sun Belt boom. Perhaps remote workers are getting called back into office. Or laid off. And need to move back to coasts. If that is happening, big problem for real estate in the South... Because there is just so much home building.

US Census shows roughly 800,000 homes actively under construction in the South in early 2023. That's almost 2x West Coast. And it's almost 4x Midwest/Northeast. Based on those home building figures...even a "slowdown" in job growth would be a big problem for real estate in states like Florida. But outright job losses, like what's occurred in 2023 so far? That would be devastating to real estate in the South.

Here's the jobs data in more granular detail from ADP: https://adpemploymentreport.com/

One curious thing to me is the job growth on the Pacific Coast to start 2023. I was NOT expecting that given all the tech layoffs the last six months.

Again - still early on this data. Only 2-3 months worth. But concerning for the South. Since there's really no margin for error in their housing market given how much building is occurring.

Yeah, we're concerned about this but we have kids and don't want to keep renting forever. We've been waiting for this crash for over one year and thus far it's just been some small price decreases. Not sure what the right answer is, but we close in a couple days. You'll definitely hear back from me if we end up under water!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For those predicting a FL crash, the numbers and the experts disagree. And that’s not good news for the Northeast.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/miami-housing-market-cools-but-is-still-the-hottest-around-3928727a

The gains of­fer fresh ev­i­dence that Mi­a­mi’s hous­ing mar­ket is poised to re­main the strong­est of any U.S. city. Mi­ami posted the coun­try’s fastest year-over-year home-price growth at 15.9% in 2022, ac­cord­ing to the S&P Core­L­ogic Case-Shiller In­dex. 

Res­i­dents and busi­nesses con­tinue to flock to the Sun­shine State—and South Flor­ida in par­tic­u­lar—drawn by year-round warm weather, more lib­eral busi­ness reg­u­la­tion and the lack of a state in­come tax. Flor­ida gained more res­i­dents than any other state in 2022, ac­cord­ing to the U.S. Cen­sus Bu­reau data, while Mi­ami hous­ing in­ven­tory is down by about half com­pared with the first quar­ter of 2020. 

New York­ers and other North-east­ern­ers are some of the area’s most ac­tive home buy­ers. Most of the do­mes­tic dri­ver-li­cense changes came from New York last year, ac­cord­ing to data from the Flor­ida de­part­ment of mo­tor ve­hi­cles. Many of the new ar­rivals, ac­cus­tomed to the steep real-es­tate prices of New York City and its sub­urbs, helped bid up home prices and rents in Mi­ami. 

We're closing on a home in FL this week. I hope you're right, but I'm concerned that I might be the last idiot to buy before the crash.

Layoffs are starting to show up in the jobs data. Specifically in the South (FL, TX, TN). New payroll data from ADP shows states across the South have lost jobs to start 2023. Meanwhile the coasts are still adding jobs.

Just a blip? Or start of a trend?

I wonder if this is the first evidence of a "reversion" away from the pandemic Sun Belt boom. Perhaps remote workers are getting called back into office. Or laid off. And need to move back to coasts. If that is happening, big problem for real estate in the South... Because there is just so much home building.

US Census shows roughly 800,000 homes actively under construction in the South in early 2023. That's almost 2x West Coast. And it's almost 4x Midwest/Northeast. Based on those home building figures...even a "slowdown" in job growth would be a big problem for real estate in states like Florida. But outright job losses, like what's occurred in 2023 so far? That would be devastating to real estate in the South.

Here's the jobs data in more granular detail from ADP: https://adpemploymentreport.com/

One curious thing to me is the job growth on the Pacific Coast to start 2023. I was NOT expecting that given all the tech layoffs the last six months.

Again - still early on this data. Only 2-3 months worth. But concerning for the South. Since there's really no margin for error in their housing market given how much building is occurring.

I am not seeing this from the data you linked. I see the region is still experiencing positive job growth.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think prices may dip another 5%. Already down here about 10% from 2021 or 2022 highs. If it's gonna happen, would be next year. I mean, if sky high inflation and high mortgage rates doesn't move the needle much more soon, forget about it.

Source? What market are you talking about?

In 22101 we are seeing record price hikes! One house down the street was listed for 1.6 and sold for over 2… within a week!

[Anonymous]

NOVA, Burke, Springfield areas are selling at ridiculous prices way over asking, everything going contingent within days to a week. The finalization of WFH/hybrid is, I think, driving (rich) people who could afford city home prices to city suburbs

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:McKinsey predicts FL real estate prices to fall 15% on average by 2030 with south Florida making up the bulk of the drop.

Climate experts predict that by 2050 the chance of a 3-foot flood event in Miami is 100%, and if sea level rise continues at its expected pace Miami will be seeing over 150 flooding events per year by 2040.

If those predictions become a reality, south Florida will become uninsurable in the near future.

You sound incredibly biased about the state of Florida.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:NOVA, Burke, Springfield areas are selling at ridiculous prices way over asking, everything going contingent within days to a week. The finalization of WFH/hybrid is, I think, driving (rich) people who could afford city home prices to city suburbs

No offense, but as a (rich) city dweller, I can't think of many places around here I'd less like to live than Burke or Springfield. The benefit of being rich is that I don't have to!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NOVA, Burke, Springfield areas are selling at ridiculous prices way over asking, everything going contingent within days to a week. The finalization of WFH/hybrid is, I think, driving (rich) people who could afford city home prices to city suburbs

No offense, but as a (rich) city dweller, I can't think of many places around here I'd less like to live than Burke or Springfield. The benefit of being rich is that I don't have to!

There’s nothing great about either area, but there’s also nothing great about Arlington or bethesda, either. Nor McLean.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:McKinsey predicts FL real estate prices to fall 15% on average by 2030 with south Florida making up the bulk of the drop.

Climate experts predict that by 2050 the chance of a 3-foot flood event in Miami is 100%, and if sea level rise continues at its expected pace Miami will be seeing over 150 flooding events per year by 2040.

If those predictions become a reality, south Florida will become uninsurable in the near future.

You sound incredibly biased about the state of Florida.

Reality has a well-known anti-Florida bias

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NOVA, Burke, Springfield areas are selling at ridiculous prices way over asking, everything going contingent within days to a week. The finalization of WFH/hybrid is, I think, driving (rich) people who could afford city home prices to city suburbs

No offense, but as a (rich) city dweller, I can't think of many places around here I'd less like to live than Burke or Springfield. The benefit of being rich is that I don't have to!

I felt that way too till I had two kids and now work from home occasionally and my spouse works from home on a hybrid schedule and a pandemic. We are not rich so larger DC SFHs are not an option.

Now we're bursting at the seams to get out of a rowhouse to a SFH for under $900k with a yard and space for an office setup that isn't one of us sitting in front of the dishwasher.....and the prices out there are rising ridiculously when we could have easily afforded it a year ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NOVA, Burke, Springfield areas are selling at ridiculous prices way over asking, everything going contingent within days to a week. The finalization of WFH/hybrid is, I think, driving (rich) people who could afford city home prices to city suburbs

No offense, but as a (rich) city dweller, I can't think of many places around here I'd less like to live than Burke or Springfield. The benefit of being rich is that I don't have to!

Yes, DC as heaven on earth, with gangs, rats, and fentanyl dealers every block. Paradise!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NOVA, Burke, Springfield areas are selling at ridiculous prices way over asking, everything going contingent within days to a week. The finalization of WFH/hybrid is, I think, driving (rich) people who could afford city home prices to city suburbs

No offense, but as a (rich) city dweller, I can't think of many places around here I'd less like to live than Burke or Springfield. The benefit of being rich is that I don't have to!

I felt that way too till I had two kids and now work from home occasionally and my spouse works from home on a hybrid schedule and a pandemic. We are not rich so larger DC SFHs are not an option.

Now we're bursting at the seams to get out of a rowhouse to a SFH for under $900k with a yard and space for an office setup that isn't one of us sitting in front of the dishwasher.....and the prices out there are rising ridiculously when we could have easily afforded it a year ago.

DP to add, when you ste a rich city dweller, perhaps you don't deal as much with hearing gunshots, crime, etc? As a not rich city dweller with kids, hearing gunshots from a drive-by on some, albeit rare, occasions is too close to home for me to want to stay. Especially when you then see that a kid was shot or caught in crossfire as has happened near me

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NOVA, Burke, Springfield areas are selling at ridiculous prices way over asking, everything going contingent within days to a week. The finalization of WFH/hybrid is, I think, driving (rich) people who could afford city home prices to city suburbs

No offense, but as a (rich) city dweller, I can't think of many places around here I'd less like to live than Burke or Springfield. The benefit of being rich is that I don't have to!

Really? Can't think of many? I can think of at least 70 or 80 in about 5 seconds. Are you sure you live around here?