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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]For those predicting a FL crash, the numbers and the experts disagree. And that’s not good news for the Northeast.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/miami-housing-market-cools-but-is-still-the-hottest-around-3928727a

The gains offer fresh evidence that Miami’s housing market is poised to remain the strongest of any U.S. city. Miami posted the country’s fastest year-over-year home-price growth at 15.9% in 2022, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index.

Residents and businesses continue to flock to the Sunshine State—and South Florida in particular—drawn by year-round warm weather, more liberal business regulation and the lack of a state income tax. Florida gained more residents than any other state in 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau data, while Miami housing inventory is down by about half compared with the first quarter of 2020.

New Yorkers and other North-easterners are some of the area’s most active home buyers. Most of the domestic driver-license changes came from New York last year, according to data from the Florida department of motor vehicles. Many of the new arrivals, accustomed to the steep real-estate prices of New York City and its suburbs, helped bid up home prices and rents in Miami. [/quote]

We're closing on a home in FL this week. I hope you're right, but I'm concerned that I might be the last idiot to buy before the crash.[/quote]

Layoffs are starting to show up in the jobs data. Specifically in the South (FL, TX, TN). New payroll data from ADP shows states across the South have lost jobs to start 2023. Meanwhile the coasts are still adding jobs.

Just a blip? Or start of a trend?

I wonder if this is the first evidence of a "reversion" away from the pandemic Sun Belt boom. Perhaps remote workers are getting called back into office. Or laid off. And need to move back to coasts. If that is happening, big problem for real estate in the South... Because there is just so much home building.

US Census shows roughly 800,000 homes actively under construction in the South in early 2023. That's almost 2x West Coast. And it's almost 4x Midwest/Northeast. Based on those home building figures...even a "slowdown" in job growth would be a big problem for real estate in states like Florida. But outright job losses, like what's occurred in 2023 so far? That would be devastating to real estate in the South.

Here's the jobs data in more granular detail from ADP: https://adpemploymentreport.com/

One curious thing to me is the job growth on the Pacific Coast to start 2023. I was NOT expecting that given all the tech layoffs the last six months.

Again - still early on this data. Only 2-3 months worth. But concerning for the South. Since there's really no margin for error in their housing market given how much building is occurring. 
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