When will it reset or crash

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Really? Were you at an agent bar? Where's that?

I'm imagining a place decorated in greige and gray. Cashmere throws placed strategically. No artwork that could be considered provocative. The clientele is mostly white and wears Banana Republic with maybe someone in a St. John suit here or there. Lots of Chardonnay being served. The parking lot is full of Lexuses and lower-end Mercedes. The conversation is along the lines of "It's a great time to sell." And "it's a great time to buy".

Thank you - this made me chuckle

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Prices will not decline imho. Too many people have mortgages that are very affordable and will stay put. Or if they have to move, they will hold on the house and rent it.

We are looking into moving for a possible job change and are considering renting our house using a property management company rather than selling. After taxes, mortgage, and property fees, we would make about $20-$30K a year.

We purchased in 2008 and watched the homes in our neighborhood hold their value during the worst of the recession. Refinanced in 2020 at a 2.9% interest rate and only have about $600K mortgage on a $1.6M home in a great school district.

We will probably sell the house once we get close to retirement or if the annual profits drop below $10K for three years in a row. I can imagine that there are a lot of families in our financial position where it actually makes financial sense to hold onto a home and rent if the interest rate is low enough.

Is that income figure net of income taxes on the rental income? It also doesn't take into account the opportunity costs of where that money could be invested and the taxes you'll have to pay when you sell it because you'll lose the exemption if you rent it out for more than a few years. It is pretty rare that people do better financially renting their home rather than selling it and investing the money in low expense index funds.

[Anonymous]

I don't think it will crash.

I'm sure everyone is sick of hearing this but what is happening now is not like what happened in 2008.

It's not that people will not be able to afford their homes in the future, necessarily, but that there aren't enough people selling and not enough builders building. Inventory is low so selling prices are high. Higher mortgage rates are not helping either as those who do not need to sell will not unless they have a good reason or don't need to finance; which keeps the low inventory low.

For the foreseeable future the housing market in desirable areas will be competitive. When rates decrease a little expect it to get even crazier. This is the new normal. Those who will be able to buy will largely have large deposits or cash from family (boomers).

No crash.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think it will crash.

I'm sure everyone is sick of hearing this but what is happening now is not like what happened in 2008.

It's not that people will not be able to afford their homes in the future, necessarily, but that there aren't enough people selling and not enough builders building. Inventory is low so selling prices are high. Higher mortgage rates are not helping either as those who do not need to sell will not unless they have a good reason or don't need to finance; which keeps the low inventory low.

For the foreseeable future the housing market in desirable areas will be competitive. When rates decrease a little expect it to get even crazier. This is the new normal. Those who will be able to buy will largely have large deposits or cash from family (boomers).

No crash.

+1

Caveat being that if there is a major economic downturn with a LOT of people losing their jobs, there would be a housing market downturn. But that will also affect people's ability to buy. There is no scenario where prices go down and suddenly everyone can afford what they want.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hanging out with real estate agents yesterday and they were reminiscing about 2006/7 being the latest time they could recall market being like this. Then the crash happened.

Were you hanging out with these real estate agents 18 months ago, before the market ground to a halt?

[Anonymous]

I'm no sage but are you all aware that real estate is crashing already on the West Coast? Like down 20% in the SF Bay and Seattle areas. Look at how many homes are for sale in Florida and guess where this hits next?

[Anonymous]

I’m already seeing 10-15% drop in Southwest Florida real estate. I don’t think it will amount to a crash, but there will definitely be a correction in housing market.

[Anonymous]

I think Florida will be headed for a housing crisis, in the form of people defaulting on their mortgages. Foreclosures are going up. The home insurance market there is insanely high and it’s just going to get worse. My sister lives there, and her home property tax and insurance now surpass the amount of their mortgage payment. This is a big problem in Florida right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There's a crazy oversupply of airbnb rentals, so I would expect an imminent crash in markets that are heavily geared toward vacation rentals. Lots of owners will struggle to stay afloat when the rental income decreases.

When is that going to happen? Don't hold your breathe, I think that would have already happened this past year if it was going to.

[Anonymous]

I don't think anytime soon in this area. We put in an offer on a SFH in the VA suburbs and there's 10 other offers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think anytime soon in this area. We put in an offer on a SFH in the VA suburbs and there's 10 other offers.

These sorts of data points really have no bearing on whether there's an imminent crash or reset. It just means that one particular house was underpriced, which is a strategy that is heavily used by agents in this area. Having many people interested in a house that is deliberately underpriced happens in any market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think anytime soon in this area. We put in an offer on a SFH in the VA suburbs and there's 10 other offers.

These sorts of data points really have no bearing on whether there's an imminent crash or reset. It just means that one particular house was underpriced, which is a strategy that is heavily used by agents in this area. Having many people interested in a house that is deliberately underpriced happens in any market.

It's not underpriced. It's actually on the higher end of comps.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm no sage but are you all aware that real estate is crashing already on the West Coast? Like down 20% in the SF Bay and Seattle areas. Look at how many homes are for sale in Florida and guess where this hits next?

I mean, is Florida real estate really a bellweather for trends in the primary residence market, though? My parents have a place there (inherited from my dad's parents) so I've observed their little corner of the market for 20+ years and it seems like the state kind of has an outsized boom/bust tempo because so many of the homes there are second homes, the insurance aspect, plus throwing in some see-sawing from the fact that it's a desirable climate (weather & tax wise), but also you have to deal with the hurricane risks driving some small % of people out every time there's a big one. My parents' area was hot before the mid-aughts crash, turned into a ghost town of for-sale/foreclosure signs during the crash years, slowly recovered then back to booming during covid.

IMO it seems like FL booms fast & big during good times, but is also more vulnerable to busts than places like the DMV.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm no sage but are you all aware that real estate is crashing already on the West Coast? Like down 20% in the SF Bay and Seattle areas. Look at how many homes are for sale in Florida and guess where this hits next?

Isn’t the issue with Seattle and San Francisco the fact that they are tech based economies? Where is the crash in DC /Massachusetts?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think anytime soon in this area. We put in an offer on a SFH in the VA suburbs and there's 10 other offers.

These sorts of data points really have no bearing on whether there's an imminent crash or reset. It just means that one particular house was underpriced, which is a strategy that is heavily used by agents in this area. Having many people interested in a house that is deliberately underpriced happens in any market.

It's not underpriced. It's actually on the higher end of comps.

Comps are always subjective. The fact remains that bidding wars don't mean much. I'm sure you could fine bidding wars that were happening in 2007 and 2008. Pricing a property isn't an exact science. I've never heard of any studies tracking the number of bids on sold properties in order to determine how the real estate market is doing.