Florida Real Estate is off the hook

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am in florida. I moved for neither the taxes nor politics.

But i like living here; today, all the windows in my house are open, there's not a cloud in the sky, and it's 79'. a/c hasn't been on since probably late October. My kid goes to a nationally ranked public school. The people around us are nice, and everyone is happy.

Yeah, desantis sucks and the politics can suck. But i felt the same way living in DC for years, and i've always hated US politics (i'm an immigrant).

I live in Florida and also moved here for reasons other than taxes or politics. I love it here! Isn't it funny people in the DMV saying politics in Florida suck and that's a reason not to live here? Makes me laugh!

I am very hopeful that DeSantis does not become president but I wonder where all these folks are going to move when/if he's running the whole country.

An excellent point. The people in DMV complain about florida because:

1) Politics. Which are essentially no different than nationally politics. And few people in DC are fleeing the country to avoid US national politics.
2) No taxes. Why is this a problem?
3) Heat. More than half the state is cooler than DC during the summer. I get that not everyone likes that heat lasting so long (6 months instead of just 3 months), but on the flip side, is it so hard for you to understand that other people don't like the 4 months of cold, grey and wet you have in DC?
4) Alligators and mosquitos and cockroaches. When people start citing that, you know they are just reaching.

I grew up in Florida, those are real things to worry about. And snakes, OP forgot snakes. We are taught from an early age about red-touch-black-kill-a-jack and how to recognize a rattler. Oh, the time my parents found a scorpion in their bed was a fun night. Cockroaches are way bigger and more common down there; mosquitos are probably similar though its a lot wetter down there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The “Florida Man” game really sums up why so many of us don’t like the place. It’s a shame that such a beautiful part of our country is such a trashy place. Outside of 30A and a few other pockets, it’s a mess.

I always feel like people who say things like this just aren’t familiar with much of America. How much of the country have you seen or driven through? Florida has many beautiful parts and the ugly parts are pretty normal for America IME.

Sure, I'm sure PP would find Arkansas uninspiring, but that's not a place known for natural beauty.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The “Florida Man” game really sums up why so many of us don’t like the place. It’s a shame that such a beautiful part of our country is such a trashy place. Outside of 30A and a few other pockets, it’s a mess.

I always feel like people who say things like this just aren’t familiar with much of America. How much of the country have you seen or driven through? Florida has many beautiful parts and the ugly parts are pretty normal for America IME.

That's not what the PP said - s/he specifically said that it is a "beautiful part of our country." That doesn't mean it isn't trashy and unappealing.

[Anonymous]

My friend bought the absolute smallest condo outdated condo with zero view, no balcony in a beach front luxury building with tons of amenities and does not allow renting.

The building charges common charges based on square feet, if you have a balcony and view.

He just goes a few times a year, pool, gym, beach, rooftop deck all great. Building 1/2 empty at all times as no subletting and tons of snowbirds.

If an assessment that is also decide by size of unit etc.

I think my wife and I will do that. Better than moving there

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My friend bought the absolute smallest condo outdated condo with zero view, no balcony in a beach front luxury building with tons of amenities and does not allow renting.

The building charges common charges based on square feet, if you have a balcony and view.

He just goes a few times a year, pool, gym, beach, rooftop deck all great. Building 1/2 empty at all times as no subletting and tons of snowbirds.

If an assessment that is also decide by size of unit etc.

I think my wife and I will do that. Better than moving there

Sounds like your friend set up a tax dodge. Wouldn’t surprise me if he has his residency and voting in FL.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, these are the types of areas that will see significant decreases in home values. This bubble was about low interest rates/FOMO. Even desirable areas with good public schools, jobs, and lots of UMC/UC people (like Central Florida) didn't see much of a net population increase during the pandemic. Prices are coming down even there. Florida real estate tends to have huge spikes then huge decreases.

I used to agree with you, but if you look at the numbers, there are like 1,000 people moving there every day. It’s not slowing down where I am and it won’t until the supply outstrips demand for housing.

But that's been going on for a while. There still wasn't population growth even during the pandemic, and there's a very low population growth projected for the next 5 years. Anyway, prices have already decreased in Central Florida, even the desirable areas and homes sit on the market much longer than they used to. It's foolish to think that rising interest rates won't continue to affect home values.

I am in the market and am not seeing this. Nice houses in the best parts of Central Florida still go under contract quickly and prices are still like 50% higher than they were 3 years ago. You can also get rates in the 5s right now. I’m not so sure prices will drop significantly.

Yes, prices are higher than they were 3 years ago. But for most areas they're less than they were April of 2022. The large, updated $2M+ homes sit for a little while instead of going under contract within 24 hours. But they're still going under contract. Homes that need work are sitting. Smaller homes are sitting quite a bit then selling for much lower than one year ago.

My guess is that interest rates are hitting the middle class buyers much harder. The wealthy are plunking down cash for their $2-3M homes. Construction costs are still high, but contractors seem to be more willing to negotiate price. New builds are sitting a long time. Most of them don't go under contract until they're almost finished. They used to go under contract when they hit the market, before construction started. People don't want to pay today's prices for tomorrow's homes. The wealthy don't want homes that need work and the middle class can't afford to get the work done. Some UMC people are still doing renovations and additions. The group who don't have the budget for the $2M+ homes, but don't want to live in a small home and can afford something in between.

The Spring market is happening now, and the only market that seems to be moving well is the $2M+ market. My guess is that prices will continue to drop for everything below that and probably for that market too.

[Anonymous]

I stay with my sister for almost 2 weeks at a time yearly in Lithia florida. Nice suburban family oriented town. They used to live in an atoll wood, Tampa. Late 2021, houses in their neighborhood sold in days. Early 2022, houses for sale sat for 4-8 weeks. Just last month, I noticed that houses on the market sat for 4-6 months and is still on the market. There’s a price correction going on and I forgot to mention that home insurance prices there are through the roof including property taxes. Those are simply not sustainable. Florida real estate is usually 6 mos lagging in market correction. It’s already happening in California which has the Silicon Valley. Florida is in for a big dip. Northern transplants have not yet felt the effects. But it’s coming.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I stay with my sister for almost 2 weeks at a time yearly in Lithia florida. Nice suburban family oriented town. They used to live in an atoll wood, Tampa. Late 2021, houses in their neighborhood sold in days. Early 2022, houses for sale sat for 4-8 weeks. Just last month, I noticed that houses on the market sat for 4-6 months and is still on the market. There’s a price correction going on and I forgot to mention that home insurance prices there are through the roof including property taxes. Those are simply not sustainable. Florida real estate is usually 6 mos lagging in market correction. It’s already happening in California which has the Silicon Valley. Florida is in for a big dip. Northern transplants have not yet felt the effects. But it’s coming.

*Carrollwood, Tampa not atoll wood

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t get Florida. We have to go to visit my in laws and it has bad vibes. I just have a creepy feeling the whole time. This started way pre-Trump so I don’t think it’s political. I didn’t even know about The Villages then, or it didn’t exist yet idk.

Same. I know there are some nice areas but mostly it seems like a low class, cheesy, and gaudy culture.

Well, that creepy feeling comes from the brain drain and youth drain for the last generations -- anyone who wanted a professional career generally moved to the NE or California for college and career. The people who were left went to UF and became teachers or ambulance chaser lawyers, etc. But the population has a donut hole of people older than high school, you have a lot of old people, some middle age, but most youth try to move elsewhere if they can.

Um, my college roommate has moved to Florida with her company. You might have heard of it, Citadel?
Lots of doctors, tech people, and many finance people live and work in FL. Ridiculously sweeping claims you’ve made.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t get Florida. We have to go to visit my in laws and it has bad vibes. I just have a creepy feeling the whole time. This started way pre-Trump so I don’t think it’s political. I didn’t even know about The Villages then, or it didn’t exist yet idk.

Same. I know there are some nice areas but mostly it seems like a low class, cheesy, and gaudy culture.

Well, that creepy feeling comes from the brain drain and youth drain for the last generations -- anyone who wanted a professional career generally moved to the NE or California for college and career. The people who were left went to UF and became teachers or ambulance chaser lawyers, etc. But the population has a donut hole of people older than high school, you have a lot of old people, some middle age, but most youth try to move elsewhere if they can.

Um, my college roommate has moved to Florida with her company. You might have heard of it, Citadel?
Lots of doctors, tech people, and many finance people live and work in FL. Ridiculously sweeping claims you’ve made.

The people who moved away 20 years ago (or even 10 years ago) have no idea what is happening in these Southern states. They also have no idea how sad and shabby DC is starting to look in comparison. If you move away from DC, it’s shocking when you come back to visit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, these are the types of areas that will see significant decreases in home values. This bubble was about low interest rates/FOMO. Even desirable areas with good public schools, jobs, and lots of UMC/UC people (like Central Florida) didn't see much of a net population increase during the pandemic. Prices are coming down even there. Florida real estate tends to have huge spikes then huge decreases.

I used to agree with you, but if you look at the numbers, there are like 1,000 people moving there every day. It’s not slowing down where I am and it won’t until the supply outstrips demand for housing.

But that's been going on for a while. There still wasn't population growth even during the pandemic, and there's a very low population growth projected for the next 5 years. Anyway, prices have already decreased in Central Florida, even the desirable areas and homes sit on the market much longer than they used to. It's foolish to think that rising interest rates won't continue to affect home values.

I am in the market and am not seeing this. Nice houses in the best parts of Central Florida still go under contract quickly and prices are still like 50% higher than they were 3 years ago. You can also get rates in the 5s right now. I’m not so sure prices will drop significantly.

Yes, prices are higher than they were 3 years ago. But for most areas they're less than they were April of 2022. The large, updated $2M+ homes sit for a little while instead of going under contract within 24 hours. But they're still going under contract. Homes that need work are sitting. Smaller homes are sitting quite a bit then selling for much lower than one year ago.

My guess is that interest rates are hitting the middle class buyers much harder. The wealthy are plunking down cash for their $2-3M homes. Construction costs are still high, but contractors seem to be more willing to negotiate price. New builds are sitting a long time. Most of them don't go under contract until they're almost finished. They used to go under contract when they hit the market, before construction started. People don't want to pay today's prices for tomorrow's homes. The wealthy don't want homes that need work and the middle class can't afford to get the work done. Some UMC people are still doing renovations and additions. The group who don't have the budget for the $2M+ homes, but don't want to live in a small home and can afford something in between.

The Spring market is happening now, and the only market that seems to be moving well is the $2M+ market. My guess is that prices will continue to drop for everything below that and probably for that market too.

In Miami, $2M would buy you a non-updated ranch house, at most 1800 sq ft.