Florida Real Estate is off the hook

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m from rural Florida, a little backwater with not much going on and at least 1 hr drive to the nearest mall, no Starbucks in our entire county, etc. but we do have a Publix!

Anyways, I sold my parents 3 bed room ranch in 2014 when they died for $45k. Today Zillow says it’s worth $240k.

A home in my county, zoned for same schools as my parents house, but nicer and 4x the lot size just sold for $650k.

These numbers completely baffle me. We are not near the beach (at all; the coast line near us is all marsh, at least 1hr drive to any sand), there are no jobs there, biggest employers are the hospitals (Gods waiting room, natch) and the school system. No professional jobs other than Doctor or Teacher more or less.

I guess a doctor can spend $600k easy, and rural doctors do make more, and maybe a LOT of people moved for WFH (though schools are bad and there are no private schools, at all, I mean who could afford them until now?).

It’s just wild. I am just despairing we didn’t keep parents house, rent it out, and sell now — it best the NASDAQ!

OP, what town are you talking about? I'm just curious more than anything.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m from rural Florida, a little backwater with not much going on and at least 1 hr drive to the nearest mall, no Starbucks in our entire county, etc. but we do have a Publix!

Anyways, I sold my parents 3 bed room ranch in 2014 when they died for $45k. Today Zillow says it’s worth $240k.

A home in my county, zoned for same schools as my parents house, but nicer and 4x the lot size just sold for $650k.

These numbers completely baffle me. We are not near the beach (at all; the coast line near us is all marsh, at least 1hr drive to any sand), there are no jobs there, biggest employers are the hospitals (Gods waiting room, natch) and the school system. No professional jobs other than Doctor or Teacher more or less.

I guess a doctor can spend $600k easy, and rural doctors do make more, and maybe a LOT of people moved for WFH (though schools are bad and there are no private schools, at all, I mean who could afford them until now?).

It’s just wild. I am just despairing we didn’t keep parents house, rent it out, and sell now — it best the NASDAQ!

OP, what town are you talking about? I'm just curious more than anything.

Sorry, my county is small enough that if I mention it, you might be able to identify me! I think there are 3 people in the DMV from there!

[Anonymous]

I don’t get Florida. We have to go to visit my in laws and it has bad vibes. I just have a creepy feeling the whole time. This started way pre-Trump so I don’t think it’s political. I didn’t even know about The Villages then, or it didn’t exist yet idk.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m from rural Florida, a little backwater with not much going on and at least 1 hr drive to the nearest mall, no Starbucks in our entire county, etc. but we do have a Publix!

Anyways, I sold my parents 3 bed room ranch in 2014 when they died for $45k. Today Zillow says it’s worth $240k.

A home in my county, zoned for same schools as my parents house, but nicer and 4x the lot size just sold for $650k.

These numbers completely baffle me. We are not near the beach (at all; the coast line near us is all marsh, at least 1hr drive to any sand), there are no jobs there, biggest employers are the hospitals (Gods waiting room, natch) and the school system. No professional jobs other than Doctor or Teacher more or less.

I guess a doctor can spend $600k easy, and rural doctors do make more, and maybe a LOT of people moved for WFH (though schools are bad and there are no private schools, at all, I mean who could afford them until now?).

It’s just wild. I am just despairing we didn’t keep parents house, rent it out, and sell now — it best the NASDAQ!

OP, what town are you talking about? I'm just curious more than anything.

Sorry, my county is small enough that if I mention it, you might be able to identify me! I think there are 3 people in the DMV from there!

No worries. I was wondering whether you lived in a county that I have lived in/had/have family members in. I thought I might have some insight into why real estate has increased so much since you sold your parents place. Florida intrigues me because it is so...different than the rest of the U.S. I love looking at ranches for sale in the middle of the state and dream of winning the lottery and buying one. Not to live there, but just as a place to park my money and maybe come and visit every now and then.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t get Florida. We have to go to visit my in laws and it has bad vibes. I just have a creepy feeling the whole time. This started way pre-Trump so I don’t think it’s political. I didn’t even know about The Villages then, or it didn’t exist yet idk.

You know it is a large state, right?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m from rural Florida, a little backwater with not much going on and at least 1 hr drive to the nearest mall, no Starbucks in our entire county, etc. but we do have a Publix!

Anyways, I sold my parents 3 bed room ranch in 2014 when they died for $45k. Today Zillow says it’s worth $240k.

A home in my county, zoned for same schools as my parents house, but nicer and 4x the lot size just sold for $650k.

These numbers completely baffle me. We are not near the beach (at all; the coast line near us is all marsh, at least 1hr drive to any sand), there are no jobs there, biggest employers are the hospitals (Gods waiting room, natch) and the school system. No professional jobs other than Doctor or Teacher more or less.

I guess a doctor can spend $600k easy, and rural doctors do make more, and maybe a LOT of people moved for WFH (though schools are bad and there are no private schools, at all, I mean who could afford them until now?).

It’s just wild. I am just despairing we didn’t keep parents house, rent it out, and sell now — it best the NASDAQ!

OP, what town are you talking about? I'm just curious more than anything.

Sorry, my county is small enough that if I mention it, you might be able to identify me! I think there are 3 people in the DMV from there!

No worries. I was wondering whether you lived in a county that I have lived in/had/have family members in. I thought I might have some insight into why real estate has increased so much since you sold your parents place. Florida intrigues me because it is so...different than the rest of the U.S. I love looking at ranches for sale in the middle of the state and dream of winning the lottery and buying one. Not to live there, but just as a place to park my money and maybe come and visit every now and then.

Well, we did have mall at one point, which had a unique architectural feature, which is now closed (maybe it's a farm store). Does that ring a bell?

[Anonymous]

I have a theory that the millions of little boys and girls who went on family vacations to Florida as children in the 1960s-1990s have all grown up dreaming of moving to Florida. They have to find out the hard way what a cesspool the place really is.

[Anonymous]

It's partly a knock on effect.

More people buy in desirable, close in, areas, and according to some, it's a lot of foreigners buying homes, which then pushes locals further out.

This happens everywhere.

It happened where I moved from. No way some of those homes are close to $1mil, but as more and more people got pushed out to exurbs and rural areas, those areas started to see the home prices rise, ridiculously so.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have a theory that the millions of little boys and girls who went on family vacations to Florida as children in the 1960s-1990s have all grown up dreaming of moving to Florida. They have to find out the hard way what a cesspool the place really is.

It’s not a cesspool, or paradise.

It’s Florida.

[Anonymous]

Today I was talking to colleagues and we all plan to move to Florida. Just saying.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Today I was talking to colleagues and we all plan to move to Florida. Just saying.

Living in Florida is so different than vacationing.

The unbearable heat, humidity, and daily thunderstorms of the summer, coupled with icy A/C run in a desperate attempt to drive down humidity indoors.

The bugs. Most of you haven’t seen cockroaches the size of butterflies, or the depth of mosquitos that they used to helicopter spray to control.

Living on the beach — probably worth it if you can swing the $M and afford private school. Anywhere else (looking at your Orlando), WTF.

[Anonymous]

Also we have the richest generation ever retiring.

My mother and MIL in NY were lower income widows.

NY reduces property tax on lower incomes and SS/Pension type income barely gets taxes at all. Both owned their small cheap to maintain starter homes outright.

Now compare this to my older brother near retrieve. He has almost 5 million in his 401ks he needs to do RMD on and around 5 million in stocks and two million bonds.

In retirement he still has a high income. Plus his NY house is big with high taxes and he in not eligible for reduced taxes when a senior due to income.

These people are going to keep coming, my brothers RMD will be $250k and his other stuff brings in $200k. He is making 450k in retirement or not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Also we have the richest generation ever retiring.

My mother and MIL in NY were lower income widows.

NY reduces property tax on lower incomes and SS/Pension type income barely gets taxes at all. Both owned their small cheap to maintain starter homes outright.

Now compare this to my older brother near retrieve. He has almost 5 million in his 401ks he needs to do RMD on and around 5 million in stocks and two million bonds.

In retirement he still has a high income. Plus his NY house is big with high taxes and he in not eligible for reduced taxes when a senior due to income.

These people are going to keep coming, my brothers RMD will be $250k and his other stuff brings in $200k. He is making 450k in retirement or not.

It’s not only the richest generation; it’s also the largest generation to ever retire.

Post-Financial Crisis we had a lost decade of residential development. This country as a whole is short a few million housing units. That’s insane and the number of adults who turn 18 keeps increasing every year and far outstrips new residence construction. You now have Boomer retirees competing in the same housing market as Gen Z. And wealthy folks like your brother don’t want to be far from the areas with amenities, good doctors, good retail, etc. That happens to be the job centers where Gen Z, Millennials, and Gen X are trying to work and educate themselves/their kids.

Anywhere that has jobs or nice scenery/amenities or both are blowing up in price and will remain elevated. Why? Because we have a shortage of homes and we have pretty wide credit availability.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, these are the types of areas that will see significant decreases in home values. This bubble was about low interest rates/FOMO. Even desirable areas with good public schools, jobs, and lots of UMC/UC people (like Central Florida) didn't see much of a net population increase during the pandemic. Prices are coming down even there. Florida real estate tends to have huge spikes then huge decreases.

I used to agree with you, but if you look at the numbers, there are like 1,000 people moving there every day. It’s not slowing down where I am and it won’t until the supply outstrips demand for housing.

But that's been going on for a while. There still wasn't population growth even during the pandemic, and there's a very low population growth projected for the next 5 years. Anyway, prices have already decreased in Central Florida, even the desirable areas and homes sit on the market much longer than they used to. It's foolish to think that rising interest rates won't continue to affect home values.

[Anonymous]

We’ll hopefully they will start to demand better schools and government. Or they will all get evacuated by a Katrina 🤷‍♀️