Florida Real Estate is off the hook

[Anonymous]

I’m from rural Florida, a little backwater with not much going on and at least 1 hr drive to the nearest mall, no Starbucks in our entire county, etc. but we do have a Publix!

Anyways, I sold my parents 3 bed room ranch in 2014 when they died for $45k. Today Zillow says it’s worth $240k.

A home in my county, zoned for same schools as my parents house, but nicer and 4x the lot size just sold for $650k.

These numbers completely baffle me. We are not near the beach (at all; the coast line near us is all marsh, at least 1hr drive to any sand), there are no jobs there, biggest employers are the hospitals (Gods waiting room, natch) and the school system. No professional jobs other than Doctor or Teacher more or less.

I guess a doctor can spend $600k easy, and rural doctors do make more, and maybe a LOT of people moved for WFH (though schools are bad and there are no private schools, at all, I mean who could afford them until now?).

It’s just wild. I am just despairing we didn’t keep parents house, rent it out, and sell now — it best the NASDAQ!

[Anonymous]

I'm in Tucson, where people are worried about water. I know 2 families who moved to central FL to escape our "impending crash when we dry up". They were both quasi-prepper families, retired with a lot of money. I wonder if this is the new place to be.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm in Tucson, where people are worried about water. I know 2 families who moved to central FL to escape our "impending crash when we dry up". They were both quasi-prepper families, retired with a lot of money. I wonder if this is the new place to be.

Ironically Florida is very low lying and all limestone. It will be underwater before Tucson is dry.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm in Tucson, where people are worried about water. I know 2 families who moved to central FL to escape our "impending crash when we dry up". They were both quasi-prepper families, retired with a lot of money. I wonder if this is the new place to be.

People who are worried about climate issues and move to Florida, of all places, befuddle me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm in Tucson, where people are worried about water. I know 2 families who moved to central FL to escape our "impending crash when we dry up". They were both quasi-prepper families, retired with a lot of money. I wonder if this is the new place to be.

People who are worried about climate issues and move to Florida, of all places, befuddle me.

People who move to florida aren't causing climate issues. The two main climate issues facing florida are (i) rising sea levels (which can be easily managed by moving to a home well above sea level, and also is something that a lot of cities have time to plan around - like miami is raising certain streets that are prone to flooding and adding pumps to get rid of water when the tides come up) and (ii) hurricanes (which are unpredictable but can be managed, in that they happen rarely to any one area, and newer houses are able to withstand all but the worst hurricanes). Day to day living in lots of parts of florida meanwhile can be very attuned to nature, so a very good fit for outdoorsy people.

Compared with the west coast where water shortages and wildfires are becoming daily existences.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm in Tucson, where people are worried about water. I know 2 families who moved to central FL to escape our "impending crash when we dry up". They were both quasi-prepper families, retired with a lot of money. I wonder if this is the new place to be.

People who are worried about climate issues and move to Florida, of all places, befuddle me.

People who move to florida aren't causing climate issues. The two main climate issues facing florida are (i) rising sea levels (which can be easily managed by moving to a home well above sea level, and also is something that a lot of cities have time to plan around - like miami is raising certain streets that are prone to flooding and adding pumps to get rid of water when the tides come up) and (ii) hurricanes (which are unpredictable but can be managed, in that they happen rarely to any one area, and newer houses are able to withstand all but the worst hurricanes). Day to day living in lots of parts of florida meanwhile can be very attuned to nature, so a very good fit for outdoorsy people.

Compared with the west coast where water shortages and wildfires are becoming daily existences.

I'm sorry have you not been paying attention.

DeSantis is a dictator who is going to get way worse. Moving to Florida now is just stupid. But also a way to keep the population down so...

[Anonymous]

Where i am in Florida, we've had so many northeasterners come down to work remotely or just start a new life during covid. Some are conservative, but lots of dems too who just reached a breaking point during covid of trying to work from home with 2 kids in a small apartment. That's made real estate bonkers, and essentially priced the exact same as suburban DC or even lots nice suburbs within good commuting range of NYC. We could have paid $1.5m for waterfront 5 years ago, but now cheapest waterfront is $5m for a teardown. Prices are slowing, and the less desirable areas will likely see drops of unknown amounts. But there's no expectation that the desirable areas will see any significant price drops, because there just aren't that many really nice towns down here, so for New yorkers coming down, there are only a handful of FL cities they want to live, with a handful of neighborhoods within those places - so even if those folks lose their jobs or have pay cuts in the coming years, there are enough NYers with tons of cash saved up that they can still come down here and pay those prices.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm in Tucson, where people are worried about water. I know 2 families who moved to central FL to escape our "impending crash when we dry up". They were both quasi-prepper families, retired with a lot of money. I wonder if this is the new place to be.

People who are worried about climate issues and move to Florida, of all places, befuddle me.

People who move to florida aren't causing climate issues. The two main climate issues facing florida are (i) rising sea levels (which can be easily managed by moving to a home well above sea level, and also is something that a lot of cities have time to plan around - like miami is raising certain streets that are prone to flooding and adding pumps to get rid of water when the tides come up) and (ii) hurricanes (which are unpredictable but can be managed, in that they happen rarely to any one area, and newer houses are able to withstand all but the worst hurricanes). Day to day living in lots of parts of florida meanwhile can be very attuned to nature, so a very good fit for outdoorsy people.

Compared with the west coast where water shortages and wildfires are becoming daily existences.

I'm sorry have you not been paying attention.

DeSantis is a dictator who is going to get way worse. Moving to Florida now is just stupid. But also a way to keep the population down so...

Yeah desantis is a horrible person. BUt what does that have to do with climate change?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm in Tucson, where people are worried about water. I know 2 families who moved to central FL to escape our "impending crash when we dry up". They were both quasi-prepper families, retired with a lot of money. I wonder if this is the new place to be.

People who are worried about climate issues and move to Florida, of all places, befuddle me.

People who move to florida aren't causing climate issues. The two main climate issues facing florida are (i) rising sea levels (which can be easily managed by moving to a home well above sea level, and also is something that a lot of cities have time to plan around - like miami is raising certain streets that are prone to flooding and adding pumps to get rid of water when the tides come up) and (ii) hurricanes (which are unpredictable but can be managed, in that they happen rarely to any one area, and newer houses are able to withstand all but the worst hurricanes). Day to day living in lots of parts of florida meanwhile can be very attuned to nature, so a very good fit for outdoorsy people.

Compared with the west coast where water shortages and wildfires are becoming daily existences.

Wild fires only affect areas near forests or scrub land. So basically Malibu, the rural red areas of mountain-adjacent California, and the wine regions.

In other words, very few homes are at fire risk in California. Smoke is a bigger issue, but my dad lives in Montana and smoke is waaaaaay worse there. They get smoke from wild fires in Oregon and Washington, in addition to Montana and adjacent Idaho’s fires. Air quality is atrocious in the rural mountain west for much of the summer.

In terms of drought, it’s feast or famine. This year is a “triple La Niña” which has caused record levels of rain and snowpack. This is going to refill the reservoirs, dams, and aquifers for the next couple years. Still, it doesn’t solve the long term drought trends. That said, if you want to see the future of California look to Israel. Desalination + nuclear is going to happen, it’s just a matter of time. Politicians like Newsom are practical and clear eyed about the need.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm in Tucson, where people are worried about water. I know 2 families who moved to central FL to escape our "impending crash when we dry up". They were both quasi-prepper families, retired with a lot of money. I wonder if this is the new place to be.

People who are worried about climate issues and move to Florida, of all places, befuddle me.

Right? I'd move to the northeast or upper Midwest.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where i am in Florida, we've had so many northeasterners come down to work remotely or just start a new life during covid. Some are conservative, but lots of dems too who just reached a breaking point during covid of trying to work from home with 2 kids in a small apartment. That's made real estate bonkers, and essentially priced the exact same as suburban DC or even lots nice suburbs within good commuting range of NYC. We could have paid $1.5m for waterfront 5 years ago, but now cheapest waterfront is $5m for a teardown. Prices are slowing, and the less desirable areas will likely see drops of unknown amounts. But there's no expectation that the desirable areas will see any significant price drops, because there just aren't that many really nice towns down here, so for New yorkers coming down, there are only a handful of FL cities they want to live, with a handful of neighborhoods within those places - so even if those folks lose their jobs or have pay cuts in the coming years, there are enough NYers with tons of cash saved up that they can still come down here and pay those prices.

I can understand waterfront and nice towns. My rural hometown is neither. Hence my baffling. Things to do in my hometown were muddin’, canoeing around gators, or visiting our one movie theater. Oh, and gold. Because old people golf and land WAS cheap.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm in Tucson, where people are worried about water. I know 2 families who moved to central FL to escape our "impending crash when we dry up". They were both quasi-prepper families, retired with a lot of money. I wonder if this is the new place to be.

People who are worried about climate issues and move to Florida, of all places, befuddle me.

People who move to florida aren't causing climate issues. The two main climate issues facing florida are (i) rising sea levels (which can be easily managed by moving to a home well above sea level, and also is something that a lot of cities have time to plan around - like miami is raising certain streets that are prone to flooding and adding pumps to get rid of water when the tides come up) and (ii) hurricanes (which are unpredictable but can be managed, in that they happen rarely to any one area, and newer houses are able to withstand all but the worst hurricanes). Day to day living in lots of parts of florida meanwhile can be very attuned to nature, so a very good fit for outdoorsy people.

Compared with the west coast where water shortages and wildfires are becoming daily existences.

I didn't say they caused it. But if you are worried about the effects of climate change, there are lots of places to move besides Florida where it's less of an issue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm in Tucson, where people are worried about water. I know 2 families who moved to central FL to escape our "impending crash when we dry up". They were both quasi-prepper families, retired with a lot of money. I wonder if this is the new place to be.

People who are worried about climate issues and move to Florida, of all places, befuddle me.

People who move to florida aren't causing climate issues. The two main climate issues facing florida are (i) rising sea levels (which can be easily managed by moving to a home well above sea level, and also is something that a lot of cities have time to plan around - like miami is raising certain streets that are prone to flooding and adding pumps to get rid of water when the tides come up) and (ii) hurricanes (which are unpredictable but can be managed, in that they happen rarely to any one area, and newer houses are able to withstand all but the worst hurricanes). Day to day living in lots of parts of florida meanwhile can be very attuned to nature, so a very good fit for outdoorsy people.

Compared with the west coast where water shortages and wildfires are becoming daily existences.

I didn't say they caused it. But if you are worried about the effects of climate change, there are lots of places to move besides Florida where it's less of an issue.

They are moving Florida for socio-political reasons or to dodge income taxes. Even if they are nominally “Democrats” in their previous life in NY or Bethesda.

Literally everyone we know who has moved to Florida in the past 5 years - both retirees and those with kids - moved to Florida for one of those two those reasons.

[Anonymous]

OP, these are the types of areas that will see significant decreases in home values. This bubble was about low interest rates/FOMO. Even desirable areas with good public schools, jobs, and lots of UMC/UC people (like Central Florida) didn't see much of a net population increase during the pandemic. Prices are coming down even there. Florida real estate tends to have huge spikes then huge decreases.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP, these are the types of areas that will see significant decreases in home values. This bubble was about low interest rates/FOMO. Even desirable areas with good public schools, jobs, and lots of UMC/UC people (like Central Florida) didn't see much of a net population increase during the pandemic. Prices are coming down even there. Florida real estate tends to have huge spikes then huge decreases.

I used to agree with you, but if you look at the numbers, there are like 1,000 people moving there every day. It’s not slowing down where I am and it won’t until the supply outstrips demand for housing.