Does anyone else feel like we are the precipice of economic calamity?

[Anonymous]

No, I don't feel like that at all. While inflation is certainly a problem, consumers are in a decent position, with credit scores still sitting at an all-time high. Jobs are plentiful
Homeowners are sitting on mortgages with extremely low rates and defaults are rock-bottom. The federal funds rate target of closer to 4% in 2023 is still lower than much of the late 90s and mid 2000s. And if we stay in a relatively slow economic growth situation, there is no reason for the 10-year to keep climbing significantly.

We are far more likely to be stagnant rather than face a calamity.

[Anonymous]

No

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I was messing around on a car site yesterday and was shocked that dealers are now asking for 8% interest rates on auto loans through dealerships. It is only a matter of time until they reach double digit interest rates for cars now exceeding $40-50k for your typical 'middle class' set of wheels. Patently absurd. As we all know, homes have skyrocketed in value over the last few years, and now no one can afford them with interest rates over 5%. The housing market is starting to get sick, and it looks like the Fed is only going to be bringing more pain for the foreseeable future. Watch as interest rates on homes start getting up to 7-8%. Prices are going to CRASH. We've already had 2 quarters of declining GDP, and corporate earnings last quarter have been relatively mixed, with many companies already sounding the alarm about a recession (see Target, for example). How many idiots out there have also been using their homes as credit cards while the everything was juiced? Watch as a ton of morons get absolutely torched as home prices start to fall and interest rates keep rising. They'll be shocked about how high their monthly payments are going to be as the interest rates on their lines of credit they opened up using their homes as collateral keep going up due to variable interest rates. Worse yet, home prices may tank and they'll now be upside down in terms of equity because now they've got negative worth after their home value has fallen and they've taken out credit using their home.

China? Already slowing down. Massive heat wave drying up crops that will cause a food shortage. Europe? Completely screwed. They're already expecting 18% inflation in the UK and double digit inflation in Germany. For the first time in 30 years, Germany now has a friggin' trade deficit because the euro is tanking and energy prices are skyrocketing. Europe is so screwed for energy this winter. Speaking of energy, has anyone checked the price of natural gas these days? It has mooned. Wait until people get a gigantic stick shock over their heating bills this winter that will continue to crimp their disposable income to buy goods and services. Oil is also going to back up once they close the strategic petroleum reserves in October, so gas prices for cars will go straight back up. Fossil fuels are used in so many things in agriculture that food prices will continue to skyrocket, setting off all sorts of instability in the world.

Oh yeah, take a look at the dollar as well. It is absolutely destroying all other currencies in the world at the moment. How long until we get a currency crisis on top of all of this mess too? Go look up the Asian financial crisis in the 90s, the Mexican peso crisis, the Russian ruble crisis, long-term capital management, etc. to see what happens when currency problems spiral out of control. World economies tank, an the US markets are not insulated from it. Microsoft and many other firms have already stated that currency issues are going to eat big time into corporate profits going forward. Many emerging countries may completely collapse as well as the USD keeps gaining strength. Worse yet, there are now people who doubt the Bank of Japan will be able to control the falling yen that has cratered this year. If a major economy like Japan has a currency crisis, it will kick off tons of instability in the world.

I feel like we are on the verge of a very nasty economic maelstrom. Anyone else? A gigantic recession is likely needed to hit the reset button and to tame inflation. The global economy is getting hit from all sides from energy crises, to food crises, to currency problems, to now slowing economies in China and Europe, not to mention big wars going on in the world. The next 1-2 years are going to be dicey.

No not at all The next 1-2 year are going to be good. Economy is pretty solid and robust -- it will continue. We are on the edge of a market rally. Interest rates will go up but not enough to do too much damage. Currency crisis is not likely. Things are in pretty good shape. 2024 or 2025 is the real danger for the US economy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Subaru is offering 2.9% financing. Were you on one of those “Johnny says YES to bad credit!” sites?

Toyota

The Toyota dealership in N. Arlington are thieves, they are marking up the MSRP by thousands - it's just greed. It's disgusting that Toyota allows the dealership to drive away customers for good.

Supply and demand, baby. Don’t like it, go somewhere else.

Car dealerships are going to change their sales model post-pandemic. They will keep fewer cars on the lot, you’ll have to order versus driving it off same day, and they will continue with the scarcity model because, if they can make more money selling one car than three, who bother with the other two? There will be no more haggling for below sticker pricing and a page of incentives.

That will just encourage everyone to buy a Tesla or through carvanna etc. where there are no games or haggling. Car dealers doing a great job boning themselves over the long run. Based on the stories I've heard regarding dealerships, I'm not much more motivated to think about purchasing a Tesla in order to cut out scummy middleman dealers who are unnecessary overhead for the whole process of buying a car anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I was messing around on a car site yesterday and was shocked that dealers are now asking for 8% interest rates on auto loans through dealerships. It is only a matter of time until they reach double digit interest rates for cars now exceeding $40-50k for your typical 'middle class' set of wheels. Patently absurd. As we all know, homes have skyrocketed in value over the last few years, and now no one can afford them with interest rates over 5%. The housing market is starting to get sick, and it looks like the Fed is only going to be bringing more pain for the foreseeable future. Watch as interest rates on homes start getting up to 7-8%. Prices are going to CRASH. We've already had 2 quarters of declining GDP, and corporate earnings last quarter have been relatively mixed, with many companies already sounding the alarm about a recession (see Target, for example). How many idiots out there have also been using their homes as credit cards while the everything was juiced? Watch as a ton of morons get absolutely torched as home prices start to fall and interest rates keep rising. They'll be shocked about how high their monthly payments are going to be as the interest rates on their lines of credit they opened up using their homes as collateral keep going up due to variable interest rates. Worse yet, home prices may tank and they'll now be upside down in terms of equity because now they've got negative worth after their home value has fallen and they've taken out credit using their home.

China? Already slowing down. Massive heat wave drying up crops that will cause a food shortage. Europe? Completely screwed. They're already expecting 18% inflation in the UK and double digit inflation in Germany. For the first time in 30 years, Germany now has a friggin' trade deficit because the euro is tanking and energy prices are skyrocketing. Europe is so screwed for energy this winter. Speaking of energy, has anyone checked the price of natural gas these days? It has mooned. Wait until people get a gigantic stick shock over their heating bills this winter that will continue to crimp their disposable income to buy goods and services. Oil is also going to back up once they close the strategic petroleum reserves in October, so gas prices for cars will go straight back up. Fossil fuels are used in so many things in agriculture that food prices will continue to skyrocket, setting off all sorts of instability in the world.

Oh yeah, take a look at the dollar as well. It is absolutely destroying all other currencies in the world at the moment. How long until we get a currency crisis on top of all of this mess too? Go look up the Asian financial crisis in the 90s, the Mexican peso crisis, the Russian ruble crisis, long-term capital management, etc. to see what happens when currency problems spiral out of control. World economies tank, an the US markets are not insulated from it. Microsoft and many other firms have already stated that currency issues are going to eat big time into corporate profits going forward. Many emerging countries may completely collapse as well as the USD keeps gaining strength. Worse yet, there are now people who doubt the Bank of Japan will be able to control the falling yen that has cratered this year. If a major economy like Japan has a currency crisis, it will kick off tons of instability in the world.

I feel like we are on the verge of a very nasty economic maelstrom. Anyone else? A gigantic recession is likely needed to hit the reset button and to tame inflation. The global economy is getting hit from all sides from energy crises, to food crises, to currency problems, to now slowing economies in China and Europe, not to mention big wars going on in the world. The next 1-2 years are going to be dicey.

No not at all The next 1-2 year are going to be good. Economy is pretty solid and robust -- it will continue. We are on the edge of a market rally. Interest rates will go up but not enough to do too much damage. Currency crisis is not likely. Things are in pretty good shape. 2024 or 2025 is the real danger for the US economy.

How are we on the edge of a market rally?

2023 looks to be difficult, why 2024/2025?

[Anonymous]

Aaaaaaaand look at that. As predicted, Russia shuts off energy to Europe and now they're gonna have a full blown energy crisis:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/31/russia-temporarily-halts-gas-flows-to-europe-via-nord-stream-1.html

RIP EU and UK.

Gas prices are gonna explode and Americans are gonna be crying over their heating bills. Gas already up 500% since 2020 and it is just getting started. RIP US consumers.

[Anonymous]

Yes, of course. this always happens with liberal administrations. duh

[Anonymous]

Our biggest issues in America are social and cultural, not financial. This is why we are seeing Trumpism:


https://www.wsj.com/articles/income-equality-not-inequality-is-the-problem-labor-force-participation-income-taxes-transfer-payments-middle-bottom-rich-household-size-census-11661781351

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes, of course. this always happens with liberal administrations. duh

[Anonymous]

This is catastrophizing. OP, seek help for your wildly uncontrolled anxiety.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Subaru is offering 2.9% financing. Were you on one of those “Johnny says YES to bad credit!” sites?

Toyota

The same Toyota who’s offering 1.9% on their front page right this second? Sure. You sound like a reliable source.

Entirely depends on what models and deals you are looking at:



Shorter loans really aren't all that great either - 7+% for 4 and 5 year loans.

The Fed's interest rate raises are going to crush purchases of bigger ticket items like cars, homes, etc. Homes are next.

Camry, Rav, Highlander, Tacoma, Corolla all have 2.9 APR for 60 months right now. 1.9 APR for 48 months. I feel like you specifically looked for the highest rate lol

Some of us do not want gigantic gas guzzlers and want a hybrid. Maybe people want an Avalon or other models that don't have the special deals too? Don't get salty that you were wrong. Interest rates are now skyrocketing on big ticket items. Wait until the housing and property markets crater next and the wealth effect implodes. Let's see how many idiots took out gigantic lines of credit on their homes that appreciated in value and who'll now be underwater because their home values are going to get crushed. Can't wait.

They weren’t “wrong.” You, on the other hand, are hysterical.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Subaru is offering 2.9% financing. Were you on one of those “Johnny says YES to bad credit!” sites?

Toyota

The same Toyota who’s offering 1.9% on their front page right this second? Sure. You sound like a reliable source.

Entirely depends on what models and deals you are looking at:



Shorter loans really aren't all that great either - 7+% for 4 and 5 year loans.

The Fed's interest rate raises are going to crush purchases of bigger ticket items like cars, homes, etc. Homes are next.

Camry, Rav, Highlander, Tacoma, Corolla all have 2.9 APR for 60 months right now. 1.9 APR for 48 months. I feel like you specifically looked for the highest rate lol

Some of us do not want gigantic gas guzzlers and want a hybrid. Maybe people want an Avalon or other models that don't have the special deals too? Don't get salty that you were wrong. Interest rates are now skyrocketing on big ticket items. Wait until the housing and property markets crater next and the wealth effect implodes. Let's see how many idiots took out gigantic lines of credit on their homes that appreciated in value and who'll now be underwater because their home values are going to get crushed. Can't wait.

Just look at your language—

“Europe is going up in smoke” — what!?
“Implodes”
“Property markets crater”

Your descriptions are designed to create panic with those sort of word choices.

It feels manipulative.

Yawn.

That’s because it’s Right Wing propaganda intended to drive the midterm “Red Wave.” Yawn indeed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sir this is a Wendy's.

😂😂😂

+

[Anonymous]

I think what's difficult is that basically since the 2008 recession, none of the typical patterns we've come to expect from the economic cycle have panned out. We went how many years before the pandemic forced a very small recession in 2020? And that was a mere blip. One factor is that since 2008, the fed has helped prop up the economy in ways that was never allowed to occur before.

It's just so hard to know what's going to happen anymore with the economy because it just always seems to putter along doing OK despite what we think is going to cause a major disruption. After so many of these over so many years, I just have to shrug now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am less concerned about the US than about the UK and Europe. They are facing a very harsh winter with little heat and are scouring the world for sources of energy including war torn areas like Yemen.

Because of the shortage of energy, they are facing far higher inflation than we are. This is new territory for us and it is difficult to see from here what the knock on effects could be, including on the US.

One can only hope for a mild winter.

US energy markets are not insulated from energy crises in Europe. Europe's huge energy shocks and problems will reverberate in the US. Besides, natural gas prices have exploded by several fold already. Pain will already be felt by Americans this winter. Now throw in big energy problems across the planet. It will be very dicey over the ensuing months.

NP and I thought we were somewhat insulated for this winter due to the fire at that LNG facility in Texas that's supposed to be offline until the end of this year. Obv. Thats not forever but I thought we were going to be mostly OK this winter.

The LNG facility will come back on line. The US is unlikely to see shortages, except in the NE — but that’s their own doing because they refuse to build gas pipelines — but prices will rise. Biden is quietly pushing gas companies to stop selling to Europe & build US stocks, but if they do, Europe will be in a real crises (even more so than they will be already). European manufacturers are already shutting down and the prices of everything will rise, including food, as fertilizer pants (which are very energy intensive) cut back.

It’s not good.