Does anyone else feel like we are the precipice of economic calamity?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I was messing around on a car site yesterday and was shocked that dealers are now asking for 8% interest rates on auto loans through dealerships. It is only a matter of time until they reach double digit interest rates for cars now exceeding $40-50k for your typical 'middle class' set of wheels. Patently absurd. As we all know, homes have skyrocketed in value over the last few years, and now no one can afford them with interest rates over 5%. The housing market is starting to get sick, and it looks like the Fed is only going to be bringing more pain for the foreseeable future. Watch as interest rates on homes start getting up to 7-8%. Prices are going to CRASH. We've already had 2 quarters of declining GDP, and corporate earnings last quarter have been relatively mixed, with many companies already sounding the alarm about a recession (see Target, for example). How many idiots out there have also been using their homes as credit cards while the everything was juiced? Watch as a ton of morons get absolutely torched as home prices start to fall and interest rates keep rising. They'll be shocked about how high their monthly payments are going to be as the interest rates on their lines of credit they opened up using their homes as collateral keep going up due to variable interest rates. Worse yet, home prices may tank and they'll now be upside down in terms of equity because now they've got negative worth after their home value has fallen and they've taken out credit using their home.

China? Already slowing down. Massive heat wave drying up crops that will cause a food shortage. Europe? Completely screwed. They're already expecting 18% inflation in the UK and double digit inflation in Germany. For the first time in 30 years, Germany now has a friggin' trade deficit because the euro is tanking and energy prices are skyrocketing. Europe is so screwed for energy this winter. Speaking of energy, has anyone checked the price of natural gas these days? It has mooned. Wait until people get a gigantic stick shock over their heating bills this winter that will continue to crimp their disposable income to buy goods and services. Oil is also going to back up once they close the strategic petroleum reserves in October, so gas prices for cars will go straight back up. Fossil fuels are used in so many things in agriculture that food prices will continue to skyrocket, setting off all sorts of instability in the world.

Oh yeah, take a look at the dollar as well. It is absolutely destroying all other currencies in the world at the moment. How long until we get a currency crisis on top of all of this mess too? Go look up the Asian financial crisis in the 90s, the Mexican peso crisis, the Russian ruble crisis, long-term capital management, etc. to see what happens when currency problems spiral out of control. World economies tank, an the US markets are not insulated from it. Microsoft and many other firms have already stated that currency issues are going to eat big time into corporate profits going forward. Many emerging countries may completely collapse as well as the USD keeps gaining strength. Worse yet, there are now people who doubt the Bank of Japan will be able to control the falling yen that has cratered this year. If a major economy like Japan has a currency crisis, it will kick off tons of instability in the world.

I feel like we are on the verge of a very nasty economic maelstrom. Anyone else? A gigantic recession is likely needed to hit the reset button and to tame inflation. The global economy is getting hit from all sides from energy crises, to food crises, to currency problems, to now slowing economies in China and Europe, not to mention big wars going on in the world. The next 1-2 years are going to be dicey.

I bought a 2013 Passat in 2017 with 8% interest. Its paid off. A 2018 Passat is going for 18-24k. Stop buying 40-50k cars. Easy solution.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do you have access to marijuana? You really need to chill. Higher interest rates are designed to depress demand which will depress inflation as demand lessens. Econ 101

No one questions that.

The cost increasingly appears to be a recession. It is looking ugly. China appears to be slowing down big time. Europe is about to look like it is going to go up in smoke. Add in shocks to food, energy, and currencies due to the face ripping dollar, and this could get very ugly very fast. The US won't be insulated when Europe and China have problems at the same time and energy markets and food prices explode due to so much instability and terrible weather plaguing the planet right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Subaru is offering 2.9% financing. Were you on one of those “Johnny says YES to bad credit!” sites?

Toyota

The same Toyota who’s offering 1.9% on their front page right this second? Sure. You sound like a reliable source.

Entirely depends on what models and deals you are looking at:



Shorter loans really aren't all that great either - 7+% for 4 and 5 year loans.

The Fed's interest rate raises are going to crush purchases of bigger ticket items like cars, homes, etc. Homes are next.

Camry, Rav, Highlander, Tacoma, Corolla all have 2.9 APR for 60 months right now. 1.9 APR for 48 months. I feel like you specifically looked for the highest rate lol

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Subaru is offering 2.9% financing. Were you on one of those “Johnny says YES to bad credit!” sites?

Toyota

The same Toyota who’s offering 1.9% on their front page right this second? Sure. You sound like a reliable source.

Entirely depends on what models and deals you are looking at:



Shorter loans really aren't all that great either - 7+% for 4 and 5 year loans.

The Fed's interest rate raises are going to crush purchases of bigger ticket items like cars, homes, etc. Homes are next.

Camry, Rav, Highlander, Tacoma, Corolla all have 2.9 APR for 60 months right now. 1.9 APR for 48 months. I feel like you specifically looked for the highest rate lol

Some of us do not want gigantic gas guzzlers and want a hybrid. Maybe people want an Avalon or other models that don't have the special deals too? Don't get salty that you were wrong. Interest rates are now skyrocketing on big ticket items. Wait until the housing and property markets crater next and the wealth effect implodes. Let's see how many idiots took out gigantic lines of credit on their homes that appreciated in value and who'll now be underwater because their home values are going to get crushed. Can't wait.

[Anonymous]

I am less concerned about the US than about the UK and Europe. They are facing a very harsh winter with little heat and are scouring the world for sources of energy including war torn areas like Yemen.

Because of the shortage of energy, they are facing far higher inflation than we are. This is new territory for us and it is difficult to see from here what the knock on effects could be, including on the US.

One can only hope for a mild winter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do you have access to marijuana? You really need to chill. Higher interest rates are designed to depress demand which will depress inflation as demand lessens. Econ 101

No one questions that.

The cost increasingly appears to be a recession. It is looking ugly. China appears to be slowing down big time. Europe is about to look like it is going to go up in smoke. Add in shocks to food, energy, and currencies due to the face ripping dollar, and this could get very ugly very fast. The US won't be insulated when Europe and China have problems at the same time and energy markets and food prices explode due to so much instability and terrible weather plaguing the planet right now.

The key will be the unemployment rate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am less concerned about the US than about the UK and Europe. They are facing a very harsh winter with little heat and are scouring the world for sources of energy including war torn areas like Yemen.

Because of the shortage of energy, they are facing far higher inflation than we are. This is new territory for us and it is difficult to see from here what the knock on effects could be, including on the US.

One can only hope for a mild winter.

US energy markets are not insulated from energy crises in Europe. Europe's huge energy shocks and problems will reverberate in the US. Besides, natural gas prices have exploded by several fold already. Pain will already be felt by Americans this winter. Now throw in big energy problems across the planet. It will be very dicey over the ensuing months.

[Anonymous]

I have felt like we were on the precipice of economic calamity since 2010-ish. If I had a dollar for every negative feeling I had, I'd be a rich man (*sings and dances like Tevye*).

Here's to your economic malaise. Cheers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:All that's missing is a BUY GOLD advertisement.

Lol!

Yep, OP sounds like she's green behind the ears.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I got 9% on my first car. We will be fine.

I got 7.5% on my first mortgage and thought that was great!

Mine was 8% and yet I lived to tell the tale.

My parents first loan was 12%. They're retired rich boomers now. Ask them how it went.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do you have access to marijuana? You really need to chill. Higher interest rates are designed to depress demand which will depress inflation as demand lessens. Econ 101

+1

I recommend Basic Economics by Thomas Sowell.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am less concerned about the US than about the UK and Europe. They are facing a very harsh winter with little heat and are scouring the world for sources of energy including war torn areas like Yemen.

Because of the shortage of energy, they are facing far higher inflation than we are. This is new territory for us and it is difficult to see from here what the knock on effects could be, including on the US.

One can only hope for a mild winter.

Last time disaster struck Europe the US emerged as a world power (WW2). There are benefits to being a large relative isolated extremely diverse nation rich in natural resources.

[Anonymous]

Isn't everyone rich? I mean housing prices skyrocketed and people bought everything up.

[Anonymous]

In the US, the elephant in the room is the national debt. As interest rates rise, the cost to maintain the current level of debt will rise significantly, and we keep adding to it, which makes the problem worse. And we also have the potential problem that, at some point, we may no longer have buyers of that debt.

[Anonymous]

For the UMC, things will continue to be fine. For the MC, LMC, and the poor, things have been bad for a while and will continue to get worse.

It’s been a tale of two cities for a while OP.