Does anyone else feel like we are the precipice of economic calamity?

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08/30/2022 19:55

Subject: Does anyone else feel like we are the precipice of economic calamity?

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Anonymous

I was messing around on a car site yesterday and was shocked that dealers are now asking for 8% interest rates on auto loans through dealerships. It is only a matter of time until they reach double digit interest rates for cars now exceeding $40-50k for your typical 'middle class' set of wheels. Patently absurd. As we all know, homes have skyrocketed in value over the last few years, and now no one can afford them with interest rates over 5%. The housing market is starting to get sick, and it looks like the Fed is only going to be bringing more pain for the foreseeable future. Watch as interest rates on homes start getting up to 7-8%. Prices are going to CRASH. We've already had 2 quarters of declining GDP, and corporate earnings last quarter have been relatively mixed, with many companies already sounding the alarm about a recession (see Target, for example). How many idiots out there have also been using their homes as credit cards while the everything was juiced? Watch as a ton of morons get absolutely torched as home prices start to fall and interest rates keep rising. They'll be shocked about how high their monthly payments are going to be as the interest rates on their lines of credit they opened up using their homes as collateral keep going up due to variable interest rates. Worse yet, home prices may tank and they'll now be upside down in terms of equity because now they've got negative worth after their home value has fallen and they've taken out credit using their home.

China? Already slowing down. Massive heat wave drying up crops that will cause a food shortage. Europe? Completely screwed. They're already expecting 18% inflation in the UK and double digit inflation in Germany. For the first time in 30 years, Germany now has a friggin' trade deficit because the euro is tanking and energy prices are skyrocketing. Europe is so screwed for energy this winter. Speaking of energy, has anyone checked the price of natural gas these days? It has mooned. Wait until people get a gigantic stick shock over their heating bills this winter that will continue to crimp their disposable income to buy goods and services. Oil is also going to back up once they close the strategic petroleum reserves in October, so gas prices for cars will go straight back up. Fossil fuels are used in so many things in agriculture that food prices will continue to skyrocket, setting off all sorts of instability in the world.

Oh yeah, take a look at the dollar as well. It is absolutely destroying all other currencies in the world at the moment. How long until we get a currency crisis on top of all of this mess too? Go look up the Asian financial crisis in the 90s, the Mexican peso crisis, the Russian ruble crisis, long-term capital management, etc. to see what happens when currency problems spiral out of control. World economies tank, an the US markets are not insulated from it. Microsoft and many other firms have already stated that currency issues are going to eat big time into corporate profits going forward. Many emerging countries may completely collapse as well as the USD keeps gaining strength. Worse yet, there are now people who doubt the Bank of Japan will be able to control the falling yen that has cratered this year. If a major economy like Japan has a currency crisis, it will kick off tons of instability in the world.

I feel like we are on the verge of a very nasty economic maelstrom. Anyone else? A gigantic recession is likely needed to hit the reset button and to tame inflation. The global economy is getting hit from all sides from energy crises, to food crises, to currency problems, to now slowing economies in China and Europe, not to mention big wars going on in the world. The next 1-2 years are going to be dicey.