Are buyers still buying?

[Anonymous]

Owners in my area have lost their mind and are throwing completely overpriced houses on the market. This started 2-3 weeks ago when it became clear that the RE rally was ending (talk about bad timing). The result is that there’s a lot of inventory but everything is up at least 100% compared to 2019. Unless more NYers come in, they won’t sell as locals can’t afford these prices. Homes sold in May/June are significantly down from April and before.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sold after 15 years for a loss.

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Travilah/10725-River-Rd-20854/home/10903284?utm_channel=addr&utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1033841&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD0xMDM4OTk2NSZwPWhvbWVfcmVwb3J0JmVtYWlsX2lkPWhyLTUxMjQ3OTctMTY1NTY5MjU5NTY3MS0xJmVwb3N0Y2FyZF9pZD01MTI0Nzk3JmE9Y2xpY2s%3D

There are lots of houses in Potomac that have not increased and even lost value over the last 30 years or so, especially if you allow for inflation.

But this is pretty surprising as sold near this peak and not a bad house. A little far out but it is still Winston Churchill and by hiking trail. Building costs alone be one million today

It is a beautiful house. Buyer got a good deal. Only buyers with deep pocket money can get a good deal in the next so called 'downturn'. Those who are looking for a medium priced close in sfh for 1-1.5mn will still have to pay 20-30%+ 2020 price.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are putting off our purchase for at least six months (could wait up to 2ish years) unless the perfect house comes up at a fair price. We rent now - great home, excellent N Arlington neighborhood, our landlord is not raising our (very below marker) rent and is giving us lots of flexibility in our lease so we can still casually look. But our thinking is “why buy now with both high prices and significantly higher rates?” People I know either found something in the last 18 months or are stepping back, like us. We are looking in close-in VA around $1M.

Has there been much interest in your home? It seems like the market has cooled tremendously in just the last month.

1mn sfh in close in VA? You will never find it so sure you can afford to wait.

What an odd, and completely false, thing to claim. There are currently 162 matches in my MLS portal that meet my search parameters for a SFH inside the Beltway. Back in February that number hovered around 40-60 most weeks. Inventory is jumping - so thanks, I will hang tight!

But you are renting in North Arlington. When was the last time we saw a livable sfh under 1mn in north Arlington? Maybe 2017? Price is never going back that far. Take your time keep dreaming.

Never say never. I don’t think prices will go down to 2017 levels but I also wouldn’t bet a whole lot against it.

Exactly. So much of the market is influenced by groupthink. On the way up, everyone buys for fear of being priced out and because they feel like they needed more space during covid. On the way down, I could well see everyone feeling like they no longer need more space (prioritizing a better commute instead) and that they want to wait for better economic conditions. The same sort of hysteria that led to increasing prices can, on the flip side, make a lot of people wait on the sidelines and put downward pressure on prices.

Commute? What is this? 2017?

My company is officially fully back at work and at best 1/3rd of the office is there everyday. No traffic at all both ways.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Owners in my area have lost their mind and are throwing completely overpriced houses on the market. This started 2-3 weeks ago when it became clear that the RE rally was ending (talk about bad timing). The result is that there’s a lot of inventory but everything is up at least 100% compared to 2019. Unless more NYers come in, they won’t sell as locals can’t afford these prices. Homes sold in May/June are significantly down from April and before.

Florida? I’m looking there and seeing the same. It’s like owners are trying to dump junky houses in a panic and they’re sitting. I can’t stomach paying $1M for a house that sold for $600 2 years ago though. Just feels dumb.

[Anonymous]

We are in Potomac but the part without the mansions. Houses priced around $1 million are still going like hotcakes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’ve lost interest in looking. We had been planning to move further out for space/updated housing stock, but now what we can afford is significantly less and it seems stupid to give up our 2.5% mortgage. We will update this one instead once contractors clear their backlog.

+1

We’re already further out (Burke) but had been planning on listing this month and leaving the area entirely. It doesn’t make financial sense to move now that rates have doubled and prices are also so much higher in our preferred location. So we’re staying put, probably at least for another 6 years until our youngest is finished with high school, and we’re making a list of the things we need to do to the house to make it more functional for us long-term.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve lost interest in looking. We had been planning to move further out for space/updated housing stock, but now what we can afford is significantly less and it seems stupid to give up our 2.5% mortgage. We will update this one instead once contractors clear their backlog.

+1

We’re already further out (Burke) but had been planning on listing this month and leaving the area entirely. It doesn’t make financial sense to move now that rates have doubled and prices are also so much higher in our preferred location. So we’re staying put, probably at least for another 6 years until our youngest is finished with high school, and we’re making a list of the things we need to do to the house to make it more functional for us long-term.

Will it make more sense when rates have tripled or quadrupled and prices are flat?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve lost interest in looking. We had been planning to move further out for space/updated housing stock, but now what we can afford is significantly less and it seems stupid to give up our 2.5% mortgage. We will update this one instead once contractors clear their backlog.

+1

We’re already further out (Burke) but had been planning on listing this month and leaving the area entirely. It doesn’t make financial sense to move now that rates have doubled and prices are also so much higher in our preferred location. So we’re staying put, probably at least for another 6 years until our youngest is finished with high school, and we’re making a list of the things we need to do to the house to make it more functional for us long-term.

Will it make more sense when rates have tripled or quadrupled and prices are flat?

No, but it’s not like we would be in a hurry to move either. There are lots of retirees in Burke, we’ll fit right in.

[Anonymous]

Nope. Rented. Everything was bad or overpriced. And they are all still sitting on the market. (That is - the houses are overpriced for THIS market - otherwise they would be moving!) We are moving into town and after three trips in, it wasn’t worth it to keep on driving in to see moldy homes. We will pick up our search when we are local and do a really tight search. We had an ample (1.85mm) budget but I guess we will look again with a higher budget after we get our house on the market. We realize that interest rates will affect our ultimate budget but I didn’t want to buy a huge problem and we had a timeline to stick to.

Saved lots of houses in a higher price range - better quality and location etc. but overpriced too. All still sitting there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are putting off our purchase for at least six months (could wait up to 2ish years) unless the perfect house comes up at a fair price. We rent now - great home, excellent N Arlington neighborhood, our landlord is not raising our (very below marker) rent and is giving us lots of flexibility in our lease so we can still casually look. But our thinking is “why buy now with both high prices and significantly higher rates?” People I know either found something in the last 18 months or are stepping back, like us. We are looking in close-in VA around $1M.

Has there been much interest in your home? It seems like the market has cooled tremendously in just the last month.

1mn sfh in close in VA? You will never find it so sure you can afford to wait.

What an odd, and completely false, thing to claim. There are currently 162 matches in my MLS portal that meet my search parameters for a SFH inside the Beltway. Back in February that number hovered around 40-60 most weeks. Inventory is jumping - so thanks, I will hang tight!

But you are renting in North Arlington. When was the last time we saw a livable sfh under 1mn in north Arlington? Maybe 2017? Price is never going back that far. Take your time keep dreaming.

Never say never. I don’t think prices will go down to 2017 levels but I also wouldn’t bet a whole lot against it.

Exactly. So much of the market is influenced by groupthink. On the way up, everyone buys for fear of being priced out and because they feel like they needed more space during covid. On the way down, I could well see everyone feeling like they no longer need more space (prioritizing a better commute instead) and that they want to wait for better economic conditions. The same sort of hysteria that led to increasing prices can, on the flip side, make a lot of people wait on the sidelines and put downward pressure on prices.

Commute? What is this? 2017?

My company is officially fully back at work and at best 1/3rd of the office is there everyday. No traffic at all both ways.

Agree on this. Even my company, old traditional boring company where WFH wasn't considered has gone to one week at office every three weeks, and since they gave up the office space it's the most they can ask to be in office.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are currently under contract. Managed to lock in a decent rate last week (4.25 no points on a jumbo). Nervous about listing our house next month but it is in a really desirable neighborhood.

Who is your lender and how did you get that rate?

+1. Would love if people who are getting great rates (relatively speaking) would share the lender's name. It helps the rest of us and doesn't hurt you to share. Thank you!

I'm the poster above with the decent rate - I'm using a local lender in Pennsylvania so I'm not sure how helpful it would be to folks on here (I moved away from DC a few years ago). They only lend in PA, unfortunately. If anyone is buying in PA, highly recommend Lisa at Sail Mortgage.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Owners in my area have lost their mind and are throwing completely overpriced houses on the market. This started 2-3 weeks ago when it became clear that the RE rally was ending (talk about bad timing). The result is that there’s a lot of inventory but everything is up at least 100% compared to 2019. Unless more NYers come in, they won’t sell as locals can’t afford these prices. Homes sold in May/June are significantly down from April and before.

Florida? I’m looking there and seeing the same. It’s like owners are trying to dump junky houses in a panic and they’re sitting. I can’t stomach paying $1M for a house that sold for $600 2 years ago though. Just feels dumb.

Yes and in my area it’s houses that used to sell for $2M or less, all of a sudden listed for $4M. Locals can never afford these prices and NYers aren’t coming in such numbers. These are inland homes. Waterfront homes saw an overall price reduction of 8% in the last 30 days.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are currently under contract. Managed to lock in a decent rate last week (4.25 no points on a jumbo). Nervous about listing our house next month but it is in a really desirable neighborhood.

4.25 no points on a jumbo = great great deal historically. LAST 2 YEARS WERE AN ANOMOLY.

That’s what I had On my first place and I didn’t think it was bad at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Owners in my area have lost their mind and are throwing completely overpriced houses on the market. This started 2-3 weeks ago when it became clear that the RE rally was ending (talk about bad timing). The result is that there’s a lot of inventory but everything is up at least 100% compared to 2019. Unless more NYers come in, they won’t sell as locals can’t afford these prices. Homes sold in May/June are significantly down from April and before.

Florida? I’m looking there and seeing the same. It’s like owners are trying to dump junky houses in a panic and they’re sitting. I can’t stomach paying $1M for a house that sold for $600 2 years ago though. Just feels dumb.

Yes and in my area it’s houses that used to sell for $2M or less, all of a sudden listed for $4M. Locals can never afford these prices and NYers aren’t coming in such numbers. These are inland homes. Waterfront homes saw an overall price reduction of 8% in the last 30 days.

Also flood insurance is shooting up in price at same time.

[Anonymous]

We browse Redfin for 2BR/2BA condos, but aren't really seriously looking right now. Last time we bought, rate was below 3% so this just feels insane. And we aren't in a hurry. Several condos we were mildly interested in have dropped price or gone off market. The ones that were priced perfectly for this market have gone like hotcakes though.