Are buyers still buying?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We were looking up to $1.8 in dc. Now we’re resigning ourselves to stay in our rowhouse which we bought for just $600k in 2005. So we have really scaled back our dreams given the financial outlook and our shrinking stock portfolio. At least airline prices are reasonable and covid is over, so we can travel a lot, right? I don’t know where my money has gone, I somehow wandered into a salon in Georgetown and Caleb out $500 lighter. Waaah!

Airlines are cheap? No way!

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Owners in my area have lost their mind and are throwing completely overpriced houses on the market. This started 2-3 weeks ago when it became clear that the RE rally was ending (talk about bad timing). The result is that there’s a lot of inventory but everything is up at least 100% compared to 2019. Unless more NYers come in, they won’t sell as locals can’t afford these prices. Homes sold in May/June are significantly down from April and before.

Florida? I’m looking there and seeing the same. It’s like owners are trying to dump junky houses in a panic and they’re sitting. I can’t stomach paying $1M for a house that sold for $600 2 years ago though. Just feels dumb.

Yes and in my area it’s houses that used to sell for $2M or less, all of a sudden listed for $4M. Locals can never afford these prices and NYers aren’t coming in such numbers. These are inland homes. Waterfront homes saw an overall price reduction of 8% in the last 30 days.

Also flood insurance is shooting up in price at same time.

That’s true. But for inland homes that aren’t in a flood zone it’s not that bad. Regardless, I don’t think that these price increases are sustainable in FL. In DC and surroundings, prices are more stable and they haven’t seen prices double in the last 2 years in desirable neighborhoods. So I think that FL will see a much larger decrease than the DC area. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 30% some people mentioned holds true in FL. But who really knows? None of us.

FL real estate has always been boom and bust. However, huge numbers of people are actually moving to FL. Unlike DC, where the population dropped over the past two years.

Will be very interesting to see what happens in FL. We just bought at the height bc we needed a home, and it was cheaper than renting. It was also a wash - if homes did come down 200k, we’d probably still have the same mortgage with the interest rate increases. I do not think the increases are sustainable because property tax and insurance are much higher than DC, but I don’t necessRuly see it cratering either. In my areas, it’s not just the New Yorkers coming. It’s Russian and Canadian money too.

People are still coming tho. My appointment for a license change is over 2 months out.

I'm from Florida, if you are walking distance to the beach, in the era of WFH that can be a very nice setup. But the rest of the state, is a swampy flat inferno for much of the year -- other parts of the south like NC/SC (inland, not even on the coast) are much more pleasant year round, and the recent price jumps in FL have made them pretty close to parity for value. I think the knee jerk COVID move was to go to Florida for the beach and the cheapness; but with cheapness gone, the migration from DC to NC will resume as the primary driver.

You must have left Florida a very long time ago if you thought the established areas in Miami, Naples and Palm Beach were cheap before the pandemic…

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Owners in my area have lost their mind and are throwing completely overpriced houses on the market. This started 2-3 weeks ago when it became clear that the RE rally was ending (talk about bad timing). The result is that there’s a lot of inventory but everything is up at least 100% compared to 2019. Unless more NYers come in, they won’t sell as locals can’t afford these prices. Homes sold in May/June are significantly down from April and before.

Florida? I’m looking there and seeing the same. It’s like owners are trying to dump junky houses in a panic and they’re sitting. I can’t stomach paying $1M for a house that sold for $600 2 years ago though. Just feels dumb.

Yes and in my area it’s houses that used to sell for $2M or less, all of a sudden listed for $4M. Locals can never afford these prices and NYers aren’t coming in such numbers. These are inland homes. Waterfront homes saw an overall price reduction of 8% in the last 30 days.

Also flood insurance is shooting up in price at same time.

That’s true. But for inland homes that aren’t in a flood zone it’s not that bad. Regardless, I don’t think that these price increases are sustainable in FL. In DC and surroundings, prices are more stable and they haven’t seen prices double in the last 2 years in desirable neighborhoods. So I think that FL will see a much larger decrease than the DC area. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 30% some people mentioned holds true in FL. But who really knows? None of us.

FL real estate has always been boom and bust. However, huge numbers of people are actually moving to FL. Unlike DC, where the population dropped over the past two years.

Will be very interesting to see what happens in FL. We just bought at the height bc we needed a home, and it was cheaper than renting. It was also a wash - if homes did come down 200k, we’d probably still have the same mortgage with the interest rate increases. I do not think the increases are sustainable because property tax and insurance are much higher than DC, but I don’t necessRuly see it cratering either. In my areas, it’s not just the New Yorkers coming. It’s Russian and Canadian money too.

People are still coming tho. My appointment for a license change is over 2 months out.

There’s a huge disconnect between home prices in Florida and wages/salaries generated by local jobs. Tampa has blown up but the high paying jobs are just not there like they are in DC, for example. I guess if enough wealthy people who work remotely or are retired keep moving in that could sustain the market, but seems unlikely to me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Owners in my area have lost their mind and are throwing completely overpriced houses on the market. This started 2-3 weeks ago when it became clear that the RE rally was ending (talk about bad timing). The result is that there’s a lot of inventory but everything is up at least 100% compared to 2019. Unless more NYers come in, they won’t sell as locals can’t afford these prices. Homes sold in May/June are significantly down from April and before.

Florida? I’m looking there and seeing the same. It’s like owners are trying to dump junky houses in a panic and they’re sitting. I can’t stomach paying $1M for a house that sold for $600 2 years ago though. Just feels dumb.

Yes and in my area it’s houses that used to sell for $2M or less, all of a sudden listed for $4M. Locals can never afford these prices and NYers aren’t coming in such numbers. These are inland homes. Waterfront homes saw an overall price reduction of 8% in the last 30 days.

Also flood insurance is shooting up in price at same time.

That’s true. But for inland homes that aren’t in a flood zone it’s not that bad. Regardless, I don’t think that these price increases are sustainable in FL. In DC and surroundings, prices are more stable and they haven’t seen prices double in the last 2 years in desirable neighborhoods. So I think that FL will see a much larger decrease than the DC area. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 30% some people mentioned holds true in FL. But who really knows? None of us.

FL real estate has always been boom and bust. However, huge numbers of people are actually moving to FL. Unlike DC, where the population dropped over the past two years.

Will be very interesting to see what happens in FL. We just bought at the height bc we needed a home, and it was cheaper than renting. It was also a wash - if homes did come down 200k, we’d probably still have the same mortgage with the interest rate increases. I do not think the increases are sustainable because property tax and insurance are much higher than DC, but I don’t necessRuly see it cratering either. In my areas, it’s not just the New Yorkers coming. It’s Russian and Canadian money too.

People are still coming tho. My appointment for a license change is over 2 months out.

There’s a huge disconnect between home prices in Florida and wages/salaries generated by local jobs. Tampa has blown up but the high paying jobs are just not there like they are in DC, for example. I guess if enough wealthy people who work remotely or are retired keep moving in that could sustain the market, but seems unlikely to me.

That’s so true. Locals are completely priced out because salaries are relatively low in Florida. It’s really the transplants from the Northeast that are propping up prices.

[Anonymous]

Trouble Florida actual blue collar workers can’t afford it anymore.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Owners in my area have lost their mind and are throwing completely overpriced houses on the market. This started 2-3 weeks ago when it became clear that the RE rally was ending (talk about bad timing). The result is that there’s a lot of inventory but everything is up at least 100% compared to 2019. Unless more NYers come in, they won’t sell as locals can’t afford these prices. Homes sold in May/June are significantly down from April and before.

Florida? I’m looking there and seeing the same. It’s like owners are trying to dump junky houses in a panic and they’re sitting. I can’t stomach paying $1M for a house that sold for $600 2 years ago though. Just feels dumb.

Yes and in my area it’s houses that used to sell for $2M or less, all of a sudden listed for $4M. Locals can never afford these prices and NYers aren’t coming in such numbers. These are inland homes. Waterfront homes saw an overall price reduction of 8% in the last 30 days.

Also flood insurance is shooting up in price at same time.

That’s true. But for inland homes that aren’t in a flood zone it’s not that bad. Regardless, I don’t think that these price increases are sustainable in FL. In DC and surroundings, prices are more stable and they haven’t seen prices double in the last 2 years in desirable neighborhoods. So I think that FL will see a much larger decrease than the DC area. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 30% some people mentioned holds true in FL. But who really knows? None of us.

FL real estate has always been boom and bust. However, huge numbers of people are actually moving to FL. Unlike DC, where the population dropped over the past two years.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/washington-dc-population

DC still growing.

That’s a projection. It says “By 2020, DC’s population will be…”. DC lost more population than any other state during the pandemic by % and Fairfax County and MD suburbs lost population as well.

https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/census-shows-pandemic-exodus-has-broken-dc-population-growth/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trouble Florida actual blue collar workers can’t afford it anymore.

This is true, so trying to get any work done on your FL home, from handyman to appliance repairs, bathroom remodel or floor refinishing, or larger jobs, is extremely difficult. The demand vs available trades is vastly out of proportion.

[Anonymous]

Yes, buyers are still buying. I'm in the Coastal Carolinas and the amount of people moving here from California and the Northeast is astonishing. They come with deep pockets. Locals can't compete. Houses are still flying off the shelf. I would love for this madness to end. But with inventory so low I don't see locals catch a break anytime soon.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:We are in Potomac but the part without the mansions. Houses priced around $1 million are still going like hotcakes.

+1. I am in Great Falls (VA) and a home in my neighborhood just sold for over $300k over asking after one day on the market (they closed yesterday, less than a month after going to market).

House that just sold are old news. The market really got hit hard just last week.

Well another home listed on the 17th and was pending by the 20th, so I think it’s relatively hot here, at least for home under the $1.5 million mark.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are in Potomac but the part without the mansions. Houses priced around $1 million are still going like hotcakes.

+1. I am in Great Falls (VA) and a home in my neighborhood just sold for over $300k over asking after one day on the market (they closed yesterday, less than a month after going to market).

House that just sold are old news. The market really got hit hard just last week.

Well another home listed on the 17th and was pending by the 20th, so I think it’s relatively hot here, at least for home under the $1.5 million mark.

Starter home

[Anonymous]

I live in a lower cost part of Howard County. Our neighborhood has 9 houses that closed within the last month, 10 houses that are under contract and 5 active listing. Of the 5 active listings, two were listed today. The remaining 3 were listed 4, 6 and 12 days ago. This area is a mix of condos, townhomes and smaller SFH, but it zoned for a good school. And the market still seems to be pretty busy. The only thing that the current market has done was decreased the amount of hedge warfare going on. Last summer, listings were getting 15-30 offers and homes were going for 10-30% over list. This year there are still multiple offers, but more like single digits of multiple offers and the sales are going for more like 5%-15% over list. So, yes, the market has cooled, but still pretty hot. And like I said, we are not in the hottest of markets.

[Anonymous]

It’s slowing all over the DMV. No doubt. Stock market pullback, inflation fears, and the near 6% mortgage rates. There are cash buyers out there, however they are also feeling jittery with fear of pulling the trigger at top of the curve. I’m an RE investor with $3m cash in the bank and feeling good at the moment….ammo loaded but not pulling trigger anytime soon.

[Anonymous]

I bought with multiple offers and we escalated in November. Now the house next door has been on the market 60 days and counting. I feel like I might already be under water.... but then we will stay here, love the neighborhood, looked for a long time so we knew what we wanted, etc. But STILL...

[Anonymous]

Yes. People need homes to live, rents are going higher. Investors are more cautious but not stopping.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I bought with multiple offers and we escalated in November. Now the house next door has been on the market 60 days and counting. I feel like I might already be under water.... but then we will stay here, love the neighborhood, looked for a long time so we knew what we wanted, etc. But STILL...

Its fine, unless you are planning to sell during recession.