Are buyers still buying?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are putting off our purchase for at least six months (could wait up to 2ish years) unless the perfect house comes up at a fair price. We rent now - great home, excellent N Arlington neighborhood, our landlord is not raising our (very below marker) rent and is giving us lots of flexibility in our lease so we can still casually look. But our thinking is “why buy now with both high prices and significantly higher rates?” People I know either found something in the last 18 months or are stepping back, like us. We are looking in close-in VA around $1M.

Has there been much interest in your home? It seems like the market has cooled tremendously in just the last month.

We are in the same boat.

Same here too. I’m using 2020 prices as guidance. We’ll pay that. No higher. No longer bidding where we were earlier this year. Feels like time now on our side and we shouldn’t pull the trigger unless we are getting a truly good deal.

Good luck with that. Yes, it's slowing and yes prices are stablizing and appreciation is normalizing. Prices going back to what they were 2 years ago?? Not going to happen, but keep waiting and spending $30K, $40K, or $50K a year in rent..... that makes so much more sense

I really hope the PP was joking. But my fear like you pointed out is continuing to pay rent ($3k a month).

Do the math on interest (at higher rates), taxes, maintenance, insurance and transaction costs. You’re not losing as much money as you think.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Went to 8 open houses last weekend in Arlington. All SFHs. It was dead at all but one of them (that one is pending; the others are all still for sale). Seems like buyers have vanished. I am taking a pause for a few months because prices are still at their peak, and rates are higher than anytime in recent history.

and the Fed will raise rates again next month.

Why would that affect the 10-yr, especially as we head into a recession? Mortgages rates are more likely to drop than rise from here.

This is a chart of the 10-year over time. The blue lines are recessions. The Fed is tightening monetary policy. What about this chart makes you think rates go down from here?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All these waiting buyers will find themselves in bidding wars once the market heats up again at even higher price range.

When do you think this will happen? Not being snarky. But realizing that there are no guarantees, when does everyone *think* this will happen? I am asking because we need to sell. We are building in another state. The house won't be ready until Feb 2023. My husband wants to sell now and then rent in the new location for a few months. I prefer to stay in our current house, and sell early in spring 2023. I am not sure what is better for us as sellers. We are in a popular location in Loudoun Co.

NP. I think this will happen because we still have the same problem that we've had and had been getting worse in the last 40 years. The population of the region is increasing significantly faster than the housing stock is increasing. Everyone wants the same things. They want locations close to work, they want safe neighborhoods and good schools. And salaries in the area are rising. 10 years ago, the top 1% was about $300K annual HHI. Now the top 1% annual HHI is about $550-600K, almost double. The number of people who make over $300K annually is now about the top 3-5% whereas it used to be the top 1%. There are more and more people who have a greater amount of money to put down and who can afford larger and larger mortgage payments.

The majority of the most desirable areas, southern Montgomery County, NWDC, McLean, Fairfax County, N Arlington County are pretty much maxed out with homes. There is no place to build new homes. So you end up with many people buying older smaller homes and doing teardowns. Or people have to compete for the same properties. Or they have to move further out. But there is a more money and more people competing for the same inventory. That's not going to change in a year or two years. In fact, since the population continues to grow and people get raises, the problem is going to get worse because there will continue to be more and more people with the income to compete in the same areas. And still, no new housing stock.

You can argue what you want, but the basic laws of supply and demand mean that the demand continues to rise, but the supply remains close to stagnant. As the saying goes, you do the math.

The DC area lost population over the past two years.

https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/census-shows-pandemic-exodus-has-broken-dc-population-growth/

https://cardinalnews.org/2022/04/20/yes-virginia-northern-virginia-is-losing-population/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are putting off our purchase for at least six months (could wait up to 2ish years) unless the perfect house comes up at a fair price. We rent now - great home, excellent N Arlington neighborhood, our landlord is not raising our (very below marker) rent and is giving us lots of flexibility in our lease so we can still casually look. But our thinking is “why buy now with both high prices and significantly higher rates?” People I know either found something in the last 18 months or are stepping back, like us. We are looking in close-in VA around $1M.

Has there been much interest in your home? It seems like the market has cooled tremendously in just the last month.

We are in the same boat.

Same here too. I’m using 2020 prices as guidance. We’ll pay that. No higher. No longer bidding where we were earlier this year. Feels like time now on our side and we shouldn’t pull the trigger unless we are getting a truly good deal.

Good luck with that. Yes, it's slowing and yes prices are stablizing and appreciation is normalizing. Prices going back to what they were 2 years ago?? Not going to happen, but keep waiting and spending $30K, $40K, or $50K a year in rent..... that makes so much more sense

I really hope the PP was joking. But my fear like you pointed out is continuing to pay rent ($3k a month).

Do the math on interest (at higher rates), taxes, maintenance, insurance and transaction costs. You’re not losing as much money as you think.

Exactly. And when you also factor in overpaying by $100K or more, and possibly needing to pay an extra set of closing costs if interest rates drop and you want to refinance, it's perfectly sensible to wait. Also keep in mind that if prices drop, you'll have to likely bring money to the table to do a refinance because your equity might be totally wiped out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All these waiting buyers will find themselves in bidding wars once the market heats up again at even higher price range.

When do you think this will happen? Not being snarky. But realizing that there are no guarantees, when does everyone *think* this will happen? I am asking because we need to sell. We are building in another state. The house won't be ready until Feb 2023. My husband wants to sell now and then rent in the new location for a few months. I prefer to stay in our current house, and sell early in spring 2023. I am not sure what is better for us as sellers. We are in a popular location in Loudoun Co.

NP. I think this will happen because we still have the same problem that we've had and had been getting worse in the last 40 years. The population of the region is increasing significantly faster than the housing stock is increasing. Everyone wants the same things. They want locations close to work, they want safe neighborhoods and good schools. And salaries in the area are rising. 10 years ago, the top 1% was about $300K annual HHI. Now the top 1% annual HHI is about $550-600K, almost double. The number of people who make over $300K annually is now about the top 3-5% whereas it used to be the top 1%. There are more and more people who have a greater amount of money to put down and who can afford larger and larger mortgage payments.

The majority of the most desirable areas, southern Montgomery County, NWDC, McLean, Fairfax County, N Arlington County are pretty much maxed out with homes. There is no place to build new homes. So you end up with many people buying older smaller homes and doing teardowns. Or people have to compete for the same properties. Or they have to move further out. But there is a more money and more people competing for the same inventory. That's not going to change in a year or two years. In fact, since the population continues to grow and people get raises, the problem is going to get worse because there will continue to be more and more people with the income to compete in the same areas. And still, no new housing stock.

You can argue what you want, but the basic laws of supply and demand mean that the demand continues to rise, but the supply remains close to stagnant. As the saying goes, you do the math.

The DC area lost population over the past two years.

https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/census-shows-pandemic-exodus-has-broken-dc-population-growth/

https://cardinalnews.org/2022/04/20/yes-virginia-northern-virginia-is-losing-population/

DC and Northern Virginia may have lost population, but the metro region continues on the same pretty steady growth pattern that is has had for most of the last 4 decades.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23174/washington-dc/population

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All these waiting buyers will find themselves in bidding wars once the market heats up again at even higher price range.

When do you think this will happen? Not being snarky. But realizing that there are no guarantees, when does everyone *think* this will happen? I am asking because we need to sell. We are building in another state. The house won't be ready until Feb 2023. My husband wants to sell now and then rent in the new location for a few months. I prefer to stay in our current house, and sell early in spring 2023. I am not sure what is better for us as sellers. We are in a popular location in Loudoun Co.

NP. I think this will happen because we still have the same problem that we've had and had been getting worse in the last 40 years. The population of the region is increasing significantly faster than the housing stock is increasing. Everyone wants the same things. They want locations close to work, they want safe neighborhoods and good schools. And salaries in the area are rising. 10 years ago, the top 1% was about $300K annual HHI. Now the top 1% annual HHI is about $550-600K, almost double. The number of people who make over $300K annually is now about the top 3-5% whereas it used to be the top 1%. There are more and more people who have a greater amount of money to put down and who can afford larger and larger mortgage payments.

The majority of the most desirable areas, southern Montgomery County, NWDC, McLean, Fairfax County, N Arlington County are pretty much maxed out with homes. There is no place to build new homes. So you end up with many people buying older smaller homes and doing teardowns. Or people have to compete for the same properties. Or they have to move further out. But there is a more money and more people competing for the same inventory. That's not going to change in a year or two years. In fact, since the population continues to grow and people get raises, the problem is going to get worse because there will continue to be more and more people with the income to compete in the same areas. And still, no new housing stock.

You can argue what you want, but the basic laws of supply and demand mean that the demand continues to rise, but the supply remains close to stagnant. As the saying goes, you do the math.

The DC area lost population over the past two years.

https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/census-shows-pandemic-exodus-has-broken-dc-population-growth/

https://cardinalnews.org/2022/04/20/yes-virginia-northern-virginia-is-losing-population/

Sure but essentially more people want SFH and space for a home office and far fewer want to live in apartments/condos long term. The mix of housing in demand has forever altered.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are putting off our purchase for at least six months (could wait up to 2ish years) unless the perfect house comes up at a fair price. We rent now - great home, excellent N Arlington neighborhood, our landlord is not raising our (very below marker) rent and is giving us lots of flexibility in our lease so we can still casually look. But our thinking is “why buy now with both high prices and significantly higher rates?” People I know either found something in the last 18 months or are stepping back, like us. We are looking in close-in VA around $1M.

Has there been much interest in your home? It seems like the market has cooled tremendously in just the last month.

Exactly the same for us. Even before the interest rate surge, I never understand crazy buyers bidding in the war.

[Anonymous]

We’re planning to wait for 6-12 months and see where the market is heading. I was looking for a nicer place, or an investment. But neither makes sense at the moment so we are staying put, renovating a bit here and there. We'll see what happens in a few months.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We sold earlier this month and currently rent. With a flexible lease, we're (I'm) hoping a home that's been listed since August 2021 with several price reductions go even further down in price. SO we will hold tight until we snag a "deal".

Same

[Anonymous]

Historically, outside the past two years, the market slowed down between the end of school and Labor Day in terms of activity. I expect that there will be much less new inventory for the next six months

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We liv in falls church, the market is still hot, hot, hot with bidding wars.

23 out of 105 houses reduced prices on Zillow,

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All these waiting buyers will find themselves in bidding wars once the market heats up again at even higher price range.

When do you think this will happen? Not being snarky. But realizing that there are no guarantees, when does everyone *think* this will happen? I am asking because we need to sell. We are building in another state. The house won't be ready until Feb 2023. My husband wants to sell now and then rent in the new location for a few months. I prefer to stay in our current house, and sell early in spring 2023. I am not sure what is better for us as sellers. We are in a popular location in Loudoun Co.

NP. I think this will happen because we still have the same problem that we've had and had been getting worse in the last 40 years. The population of the region is increasing significantly faster than the housing stock is increasing. Everyone wants the same things. They want locations close to work, they want safe neighborhoods and good schools. And salaries in the area are rising. 10 years ago, the top 1% was about $300K annual HHI. Now the top 1% annual HHI is about $550-600K, almost double. The number of people who make over $300K annually is now about the top 3-5% whereas it used to be the top 1%. There are more and more people who have a greater amount of money to put down and who can afford larger and larger mortgage payments.

The majority of the most desirable areas, southern Montgomery County, NWDC, McLean, Fairfax County, N Arlington County are pretty much maxed out with homes. There is no place to build new homes. So you end up with many people buying older smaller homes and doing teardowns. Or people have to compete for the same properties. Or they have to move further out. But there is a more money and more people competing for the same inventory. That's not going to change in a year or two years. In fact, since the population continues to grow and people get raises, the problem is going to get worse because there will continue to be more and more people with the income to compete in the same areas. And still, no new housing stock.

You can argue what you want, but the basic laws of supply and demand mean that the demand continues to rise, but the supply remains close to stagnant. As the saying goes, you do the math.

The DC area lost population over the past two years.

https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/census-shows-pandemic-exodus-has-broken-dc-population-growth/

https://cardinalnews.org/2022/04/20/yes-virginia-northern-virginia-is-losing-population/

DC and Northern Virginia may have lost population, but the metro region continues on the same pretty steady growth pattern that is has had for most of the last 4 decades.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23174/washington-dc/population

Montgomery and Prince George’s County lost population, as well. Not sure what part of the “metro region” you’re looking at?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/03/24/census-population-counties-cities-covid/

The US Census numbers say the population is down. I’ll take that over the UN.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are putting off our purchase for at least six months (could wait up to 2ish years) unless the perfect house comes up at a fair price. We rent now - great home, excellent N Arlington neighborhood, our landlord is not raising our (very below marker) rent and is giving us lots of flexibility in our lease so we can still casually look. But our thinking is “why buy now with both high prices and significantly higher rates?” People I know either found something in the last 18 months or are stepping back, like us. We are looking in close-in VA around $1M.

Has there been much interest in your home? It seems like the market has cooled tremendously in just the last month.

1mn sfh in close in VA? You will never find it so sure you can afford to wait.

What an odd, and completely false, thing to claim. There are currently 162 matches in my MLS portal that meet my search parameters for a SFH inside the Beltway. Back in February that number hovered around 40-60 most weeks. Inventory is jumping - so thanks, I will hang tight!

But you are renting in North Arlington. When was the last time we saw a livable sfh under 1mn in north Arlington? Maybe 2017? Price is never going back that far. Take your time keep dreaming.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are putting off our purchase for at least six months (could wait up to 2ish years) unless the perfect house comes up at a fair price. We rent now - great home, excellent N Arlington neighborhood, our landlord is not raising our (very below marker) rent and is giving us lots of flexibility in our lease so we can still casually look. But our thinking is “why buy now with both high prices and significantly higher rates?” People I know either found something in the last 18 months or are stepping back, like us. We are looking in close-in VA around $1M.

Has there been much interest in your home? It seems like the market has cooled tremendously in just the last month.

1mn sfh in close in VA? You will never find it so sure you can afford to wait.

What an odd, and completely false, thing to claim. There are currently 162 matches in my MLS portal that meet my search parameters for a SFH inside the Beltway. Back in February that number hovered around 40-60 most weeks. Inventory is jumping - so thanks, I will hang tight!

But you are renting in North Arlington. When was the last time we saw a livable sfh under 1mn in north Arlington? Maybe 2017? Price is never going back that far. Take your time keep dreaming.

I am relatively new to this board and am shocked how petty and personal people get here. I thought educated DC moms were above that kind of behavior. These RE threads are eye opening and embarrassing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are putting off our purchase for at least six months (could wait up to 2ish years) unless the perfect house comes up at a fair price. We rent now - great home, excellent N Arlington neighborhood, our landlord is not raising our (very below marker) rent and is giving us lots of flexibility in our lease so we can still casually look. But our thinking is “why buy now with both high prices and significantly higher rates?” People I know either found something in the last 18 months or are stepping back, like us. We are looking in close-in VA around $1M.

Has there been much interest in your home? It seems like the market has cooled tremendously in just the last month.

1mn sfh in close in VA? You will never find it so sure you can afford to wait.

What an odd, and completely false, thing to claim. There are currently 162 matches in my MLS portal that meet my search parameters for a SFH inside the Beltway. Back in February that number hovered around 40-60 most weeks. Inventory is jumping - so thanks, I will hang tight!

But you are renting in North Arlington. When was the last time we saw a livable sfh under 1mn in north Arlington? Maybe 2017? Price is never going back that far. Take your time keep dreaming.

Never say never. I don’t think prices will go down to 2017 levels but I also wouldn’t bet a whole lot against it.