Theories as to why this year's acceptances were so tough...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TO + woke admissions officers

Yes. Harvard is so woke that the percentage of black, Hispanic and first gen admits all went down this year compared to last year.

Bc it was so obscenely high last year, no way they could pull
It off this year esp with scotus smack down coming

Pretty telling that you would characterize it as obscene.

Plus we were discussing this year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is it due to COVID? Is it because most universities went test optional? Is it because more students applied to more schools?

What are your thoughts?

I think it’s because of the tilt away from student loans.

People are figuring out that the best quality-adjusted deals are usually T50 universities, T20 LACs and state flagships, so they’re getting flooded with applications.

Ordinary LACs and ordinary private universities then have to scramble to put a class together.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is it due to COVID? Is it because most universities went test optional? Is it because more students applied to more schools?

What are your thoughts?

I think it’s because of the tilt away from student loans.

People are figuring out that the best quality-adjusted deals are usually T50 universities, T20 LACs and state flagships, so they’re getting flooded with applications.

Ordinary LACs and ordinary private universities then have to scramble to put a class together.

It’s some of that, but mostly it’s a drop in number of college-age people.

[Anonymous]

Is there any data to establish that admissions were tougher this year? If so, tougher for whom?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is there any data to establish that admissions were tougher this year? If so, tougher for whom?

This is DCUM. We don’t believe in data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think it’s a mystery

1. The top colleges have barely added any new seats to incoming classes in 40 years. Yet we have 3mm more HS graduates. That’s 300,000 more students in the top 10% if their class vying for that tiny number of seats.
2. Increased foreign applicants as the US tries to lure talent
3. COVID grade inflation made more kids think they were more accomplished than they really were
4. General dilution of the SAT. Since college board reverted to the 1600 scale from the 2400 scale, they did NOT return to the same scale as pre-2400. Todays scores equate to 60-100 points lower on the old 1600 scale.
5. Test optional gives more people a punchers chance. Note I am actually in favor of TO. I am a devout non-believer in the SAT/ACT and what they purport to measure.
6. Common App majes it ever easier to spam 20 schools. I applied to 4 schools in HS in the mid-90s. Each application had to be typed on a typewriter or hand filled in. Tedious.
7. The ever-increasing influence of stupid rankings, combined with anxiety over being one of the have nots if you don’t get into a top 20.

The Atlantic article quoted above disagrees with your #1:
Over the past two decades, the number of applications submitted to colleges has increased more than 150 percent, even as the size of high-school graduating classes has remained fairly stable.

The size of graduating classes isn’t the relevant number. The question is how many people are applying to, and attending, college. That went up dramatically between 1970 and 2010, and then sort of leveled off. Add in the fact that the number of international students went up 10x between 1970 and 2019 (from just over 100,000 to just over a million).

This year, the Common App registered 1,161,560 separate applications, up 13.9% from 2019. The number of international apps were up 33%.

Apps to “most selective” are up 25% and because of test optional, more of those apps are truly competitive.

The increased difficulty of getting into top schools is not a figment of people’s imagination.

https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2022/02/28/applications-continue-grow



https://statisticsanddata.org/data/international-students-in-us-by-country-of-origin/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid's school caps the number of schools he can apply to at 10. He got into all 10. Students need to focus on reality and stop applying to 20 schools. Pick ones they can get into and then they'll have a lot of choices. By applying to schools that are clearly a reach, they made more work for themselves with a limited positive result.

No problem with applying to a few reach schools. Just make sure to have a well rounded group of schools---3-4 Reaches are fine, but you also need 3-4 True Safeties that you DC actually would want to attend (it's not an actual safety if you kid doesn't really want to attend), and then 3-4 targets. If you want to apply to more, go for it. Unfortunately, many applying to 20+ schools are including 18+ of those as Reaches and then disappointed in their results. If a school's acceptance rate is less than 20%, it's a REACH for everyone nowadays.

My own DS did 11 schools---could have done another 4-5 but they were all Reaches with less than 10% acceptance rates. he decided to narrow it down and select 2-3 Reaches and focus on those, as well as focus on living and enjoying senior year a little bit.

My kid didn't apply to any reaches because even if he did get in, he wouldn't get any merit aid. No money means no way he can go.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is it due to COVID? Is it because most universities went test optional? Is it because more students applied to more schools?

What are your thoughts?

Every year, people think it’s the hardest year ever for their snowflake. 😂

Yes. As someone pointed out elsewhere, punch CollegeConfidential into the Archive.org and you’ll see posts from the 2001-2002 admissions cycle decrying how it’s the hardest admissions year ever.

What’s your point? That doesn’t mean 2022 isn’t harder. In 2001-2, there were 645,111 applications to the top 56 colleges and 198,815 acceptances. The application numbers have risen steadily since, and admitted number, not so much. In 2021-2, there were 1,996,680 applications and 226,234 acceptances. The number of applications went up more than 300% and the number accepted went up by 14%. The average admit rate went from 31% to 11%. Add in test optional, which makes more of those apps actually competitive.

Total applications at the most selective schools are up 25% this year over 2019, so add in another 400,000 apps for the same number of seats.

It absolutely had been getting harder every year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_admissions_in_the_United_States

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is it due to COVID? Is it because most universities went test optional? Is it because more students applied to more schools?

What are your thoughts?

Every year, people think it’s the hardest year ever for their snowflake. 😂

Yes. As someone pointed out elsewhere, punch CollegeConfidential into the Archive.org and you’ll see posts from the 2001-2002 admissions cycle decrying how it’s the hardest admissions year ever.

What’s your point? That doesn’t mean 2022 isn’t harder. In 2001-2, there were 645,111 applications to the top 56 colleges and 198,815 acceptances. The application numbers have risen steadily since, and admitted number, not so much. In 2021-2, there were 1,996,680 applications and 226,234 acceptances. The number of applications went up more than 300% and the number accepted went up by 14%. The average admit rate went from 31% to 11%. Add in test optional, which makes more of those apps actually competitive.

Total applications at the most selective schools are up 25% this year over 2019, so add in another 400,000 apps for the same number of seats.

It absolutely had been getting harder every year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_admissions_in_the_United_States

One edit — The 1,996,680 reflects an estimate of the 2022 increase, but it’s low vs. the Common App numbers. Their most recent numbers show a 400,000 increase, so the most accurate number is around 2,003,000 applications.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TO + woke admissions officers

Yes. Harvard is so woke that the percentage of black, Hispanic and first gen admits all went down this year compared to last year.

Bc it was so obscenely high last year, no way they could pull
It off this year esp with scotus smack down coming

Pretty telling that you would characterize it as obscene.

Plus we were discussing this year.

TO+ woke admissions officers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think it’s a mystery

1. The top colleges have barely added any new seats to incoming classes in 40 years. Yet we have 3mm more HS graduates. That’s 300,000 more students in the top 10% if their class vying for that tiny number of seats.
2. Increased foreign applicants as the US tries to lure talent
3. COVID grade inflation made more kids think they were more accomplished than they really were
4. General dilution of the SAT. Since college board reverted to the 1600 scale from the 2400 scale, they did NOT return to the same scale as pre-2400. Todays scores equate to 60-100 points lower on the old 1600 scale.
5. Test optional gives more people a punchers chance. Note I am actually in favor of TO. I am a devout non-believer in the SAT/ACT and what they purport to measure.
6. Common App majes it ever easier to spam 20 schools. I applied to 4 schools in HS in the mid-90s. Each application had to be typed on a typewriter or hand filled in. Tedious.
7. The ever-increasing influence of stupid rankings, combined with anxiety over being one of the have nots if you don’t get into a top 20.

The Atlantic article quoted above disagrees with your #1:
Over the past two decades, the number of applications submitted to colleges has increased more than 150 percent, even as the size of high-school graduating classes has remained fairly stable.

The size of graduating classes isn’t the relevant number. The question is how many people are applying to, and attending, college. That went up dramatically between 1970 and 2010, and then sort of leveled off. Add in the fact that the number of international students went up 10x between 1970 and 2019 (from just over 100,000 to just over a million).

This year, the Common App registered 1,161,560 separate applications, up 13.9% from 2019. The number of international apps were up 33%.

Apps to “most selective” are up 25% and because of test optional, more of those apps are truly competitive.

The increased difficulty of getting into top schools is not a figment of people’s imagination.

https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2022/02/28/applications-continue-grow



https://statisticsanddata.org/data/international-students-in-us-by-country-of-origin/

Just to be clear — the increase in “separate applications” is the number of applicants, not applications. So the increase is not just the same number of kids putting in more apps — there are more kids applying.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This question gets asked every year. You only think it’s an unusual year because your kid was part of it.

I actually think OP is accurate. Borders were closed to international visas, so 2 years of candidates from abroad were stuck at home. Then domestically many parents pulled their kids out of college out of fear of the virus or instructed juniors/seniors to delay and take a gap year because there was societal panic.

So yeah even if that led to a 20% surge in applications - tougher all around.

Lol, having the borders closed for a few years took out a large proportion of the top end of competition and opened up slots for US kids that in days past would be less likely to get in.

This is another reason why since the pandemic its become easier, not harder, for US kids.

Delusional

The US has a dubious distinction of having an uncompetitive high school educational system for the vast majority of students. In our country, students rank near the bottom compared to other industrialized countries in math and reading.

What the US is very good at is promoting a woke culture: what bathrooms should trans kids get to use, reasons why grades and standardized tests are racists, how can US people get more gibs from the government without thinking about how to actually earn it, etc.

In professions that contribute to national power? Not so much.

Why do you think most doctors are international? Why are many of the most advanced/valuable companies in the US populated by internationals?

These international students not only come to US colleges more prepared than US students they also come full pay without asking for handouts, whining about how expensive it is, how many snow days are gifted, no homework policies students are already too stressed out, unlimited second chances for disruptive students that conduct criminal tier behavior otherwise again its racists, etc.

Not saying that I like it, but its the hard truth and the most successful college grads from the elite colleges are often international students.


https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2019-12-03/us-students-show-no-improvement-in-math-reading-science-on-international-exam

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/us-students-continue-to-lag-behind-peers-in-east-asia-and-europe-in-reading-math-and-science-exams-show/2019/12/02/e9e3b37c-153d-11ea-9110-3b34ce1d92b1_story.html

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/15/u-s-students-internationally-math-science/

The conspiracies run strong in you.

You think any student at Yale is complaining about the level of homework?

About a third physicians in the US are foreign educated, so it's not "most." Admission to US med schools remains very competitive.

Lol when was the last time you saw a doctor that was a white blonde hair/blue eyes anglo-saxon heritage male which was essentially the most common male phenotype for the initial 100+ years of the US? Take a look at the other 70% and most will be naturalized or first gen immigrants

Last Wednesday. My dermatologist. 🤣

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TO + woke admissions officers

Yes. Harvard is so woke that the percentage of black, Hispanic and first gen admits all went down this year compared to last year.

Bc it was so obscenely high last year, no way they could pull
It off this year esp with scotus smack down coming

Pretty telling that you would characterize it as obscene.

Plus we were discussing this year.

TO+ woke admissions officers.

Simply repeating your earlier indefensible claim is an interesting take.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wasn't any tougher than any of the other years - Mom of 4.

Yes, it was. The statistics quite irrefutably show it was. My senior landed well but I look around and many did not.

- Mom of 6 (not really but see how that works?)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wasn't any tougher than any of the other years - Mom of 4.

Yes, it was. The statistics quite irrefutably show it was. My senior landed well but I look around and many did not.

- Mom of 6 (not really but see how that works?)

Again - with the “same as every other year” people. Schools made TO a reality - this alone changed the landscape of application pool. That is not an opinion it is a fact. The push to elevate non academic criteria is also a fact. And finally - COVID - no in person schools and resulting grade inflation also is a fact.