This is the very tippy top though. I am thinking about how a kid who consistently makes the A meets at 8 isn't necessarily going to continue to be a superstar even at 9 and definitely not as a teen without hard work. Especially in the instances when the kid is clearly just a good athlete. We have a girl like that on our team this year. It is her first year and she has displaced some year round swimmers from the A meets because she is fast and can bust out a strong 25 freestyle. |
A non club swimmer can do great in a 25 it is the turn when they move to a 50 that kills them. I think this data is interesting: 8U Boys Free (2021) v 2025 (11-12) #1 (2021) is #13 (2025) #3 (2021) is #31 now #7 (2021) is #3 now #38 then is #10 now The kids who stick with it can come far between age 8 and 12 and the top kids #3 will drop as others catch up. Size is an advantage at 8 where technique comes into play as they age and move to swimming 50s. |
(Data person here) Another limitation is puberty. We would have to control for puberty, and there is no way to do that looking only at best times. Further, the time in the NVSL leader list is the swimmer’s best time. To get a full picture of the swimmer, we would need to look at all of the swimmer’s times. Was the best time a one-off? Was it an end of season time showing improvement/stakes are higher? A lot we don’t know. But to say 8Us are mostly not fast at age 12 is just not true. My own child was top 6 in the two events she always swam at A meets when age 8 (she was top six at All Stars too) and was top 3 in one stroke, top 10 in the other, at age 12. |
ETA: I think a statement like, “Fast 8Us who do not go on to swim club at least 2-3 days per week are not as fast, and perhaps no longer fast, when they reach age 12 relative to their club-swimmer counterparts.” This said, if a child swims club but then quits around age 11, that child has the technique to swim a fast 50 in a summer league. The kid who won 13-14 boys backstroke a few years ago is now a college football player, but he swam club until he was about 11 or so. |
We have swum at two different summer teams (ages 5-7 and age 8+). Making an A meet at a Division 13 team did not mean the child was fast. My five year old swam at every A meet in D13 because the team was really, really small and she was legal in the four strokes. Making A meets at our Division 1 team does mean the child was fast, and my then-5 year old never would have swum in D1 A meets (although I saw a 5 year old swim in a D1 A meet this season). So even using “making A meets” as the bar does not translate to that kid being fast. They are just fast for the team and possibly fast for the division. |
And another caveat is that some swimmers (I have one of these) much prefer middle distance or distance events. They would rather swim a 200 IM than a 50 free, so summer league only swimmers definitely can beat them. They have adjusted to a pace and race plan that does not translate to all-out sprints. |
True! I was a pretty decent swimmer (many moons ago) and I would not have thrived in summer swim as middle distance and longer distance events were my forte. |