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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Our competitive 8 and under moms are rampant this season. It is so cringe.[/quote]

8 year old hero usually 12 year old zero.[/quote]

Not necessarily true. Don't be haters.[/quote]

True more often than not.

I can' even begin to tell you the number of kids I see make all stars at 8 and not even make an A meet at 9[/quote]

Data person here again. I’ll spend 15 minutes on this claim. Why make statements when they are so easy to debunk?

Let’s look at a cross-section, NVSL, 2021 (8U) v 2025 (11-12):
* limitations: does not account for swimmers who did not swim/have not swum event in A meet; some kids moved in/out or were not yet swimming at age 8 (this is true for a lot of the boys)

GIRLS (approx 2000 8U girls and approx 1700+ 11-12 girls each year)

8U Girls Free (2021) v 11-12 Free (2025)
#1 is same in 2021 as in 2025
#2 in 2021 is #10 now
#3 (who was 7 in 2021) is #13 (age 11) now
#10 in 2021 is #5 now
#34 in 2021 is #3 now
8U Girls Breast (2021) v 11-12 Breast (2025)
#1 is same in 2021 and 2025
#3 is same in 2021 and 2025
#6 (2021) is #2 now
#7 (2021) is #17 now
8U Girls Fly (2021) v 11-12 Fly (2025)
#1 then is #2 now
#2 then (at age 7) is #11 now (age 11)
#14 then is #3 now
#15 then is #7 now
———-
NOW BOYS:
8U Boys Free (2021) v 2025 (11-12)
#1 (2021) is #13 (2025)
#3 (2021) is #31 now 
#7 (2021) is #3 now
#38 then is #10 now
8U Boys Breast, 2021 v 2025
#4 then is #21 now
#7 then is #11 now
#20 then is #13 now
8U Boys Fly, 2021 v 2025
#7 then is #4 now
#8 then is #1 now

[/quote]

This is the very tippy top though. I am thinking about how a kid who consistently makes the A meets at 8 isn't necessarily going to continue to be a superstar even at 9 and definitely not as a teen without hard work. Especially in the instances when the kid is clearly just a good athlete. We have a girl like that on our team this year. It is her first year and she has displaced some year round swimmers from the A meets because she is fast and can bust out a strong 25 freestyle. [/quote]

A non club swimmer can do great in a 25 it is the turn when they move to a 50 that kills them.

I think this data is interesting:
8U Boys Free (2021) v 2025 (11-12)
#1 (2021) is #13 (2025)
#3 (2021) is #31 now 
#7 (2021) is #3 now
#38 then is #10 now

The kids who stick with it can come far between age 8 and 12 and the top kids #3 will drop as others catch up. 
Size is an advantage at 8 where technique comes into play as they age and move to swimming 50s. 
[/quote]

(Data person here) Another limitation is puberty. We would have to control for puberty, and there is no way to do that looking only at best times. Further, the time in the NVSL leader list is the swimmer’s best time. To get a full picture of the swimmer, we would need to look at all of the swimmer’s times. Was the best time a one-off? Was it an end of season time showing improvement/stakes are higher? A lot we don’t know.

But to say 8Us are mostly not fast at age 12 is just not true. My own child was top 6 in the two events she always swam at A meets when  age 8 (she was top six at All Stars too) and was top 3 in one stroke, top 10 in the other, at age 12.[/quote]

ETA: I think a statement like, “Fast 8Us who do not go on to swim club at least 2-3 days per week are not as fast, and perhaps no longer fast, when they reach age 12 relative to their club-swimmer counterparts.” This said, if a child swims club but then quits around age 11, that child has the technique to swim a fast 50 in a summer league. The kid who won 13-14 boys backstroke a few years ago is now a college football player, but he swam club until he was about 11 or so. [/quote]

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