Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Hard working Americans that lay sheet rock today, frame homes, and roof, should not have to pay taxes to support a war effort that wealthy Ukranians turn their back on.

Ukraine is a not a country is a former province with a gas station.


Spoken like a true Russian. Ukrainians are people. People who want to be free of Russian tyranny. People who want to determine their own fate.

It's a concept that Russians serving their government wouldn't understand. They're just slaves, for all intents and purposes.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/12/us/politics/russia-intelligence-assessment.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

For those facing paywall -

Russia Has Suffered Staggeringly High Losses, U.S. Report Says
The declassified intelligence assessment also found that Russia’s objective has been eroding Western support for Ukraine, the country it invaded.


By Julian E. Barnes
Dec. 12, 2023
Updated 1:02 p.m. ET

The Russian push in eastern Ukraine this fall and winter was designed to sap Western support for Ukraine, according to a newly declassified American intelligence assessment.

The drive has resulted in heavy losses but has not led to strategic gains on the battlefield for Russia, said Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council.

Since the beginning of the war Russia has suffered from a staggeringly high number of losses, according to another newly declassified assessment shared with Congress. At the start of the war the Russian army stood at 360,000 troops. Russia has lost 315,000 of those troops, forcing them to recruit and mobilize new recruits and convicts from their prison system.

Moscow’s equipment has also been crushed, according to the assessment. At the start of the war, Russia had 3,500 tanks but has lost 2,200, forcing them to pull 50 year old T-62 tanks from storage.

The assessment says the Russian losses have reduced the complexity of Russia’s recent military operations in Ukraine.
“The war in Ukraine has sharply set back 15 years of Russian effort to modernize its ground force,” the declassified assessment said. “As of late November, Russia had lost over a quarter of its pre-2022 stockpile of ground forces equipment and has suffered casualties among its trained professional army.”

In the most recent push, Russia has suffered more than 13,000 people killed and wounded and lost more than 220 combat vehicles while fighting near Avdiivka and other cities, Ms. Watson said.

Russian forces had hoped for a swift breakthrough but encountered stiff Ukrainian resistance. Ukraine has moved forces from the south to reinforce its troops in the east. While Ukraine too has suffered causalities, its losses are not as significant as Russia’s, U.S. officials have said. Casualty figures on both sides of the conflict are estimates, according to American officials. Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not disclose official figures.

he information was declassified as President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine visits Washington to help press the case that his country needs more American aid to help defend against the continued assault.
The White House is asking for $50 billion in additional security aid for Ukraine. But many conservative Republicans are skeptical about the country’s ability to win the war and want major changes in U.S. border security policy as part of a funding agreement.

Ms. Watson said the push by Russia is related to the funding debates in Congress. The declassified intelligence assessed that Russia “seems to believe that a military deadlock through the winter will drain Western support for Ukraine,” Ms. Watson said.

Russia, Ms. Watson said, continues to have shortages of soldiers and weaponry but is pushing in Eastern Ukraine despite its losses with hope of gaining an advantage.
Russia is closely tracking the debate in Congress, Ms. Watson said. Other U.S. officials briefed on intelligence reports agreed and said President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia believes he is beginning to see success in his strategy of trying to out wait the West.

Julian E. Barnes covers the U.S. intelligence agencies and international security matters for The Times. He has written about security issues for more than two decades. More about Julian E. Barnes


Western "Intelligence" really likes to throw out these crazy casualty numbers and rags like WAPO dutifully trumpet them. Somehow they lost 315,000 of 360,000 and they are still pushing Ukraine to the breaking point. There are probably a few people still probably believe it too.

Either WAPO or the letter boys are getting lazy since they didn't talk about how Russia is out of ammo, tanks, fuel and money as well.


Russia had a population of 144 million, 2/3rds of which were in the 15-64 age range (conscript-able/workforce age), of approximately 96M. Russia has about 26M children ages 0 to 15 and 24.5M (17%) are 65+. There are 42M pensioners in Russia. Assuming all elderly are pensioners, that means there are about 17.5M pensioners within the workforce/conscript-able range that need to be removed from the 96M, leaving 78.5M. Approximately half are women (generally non-conscript-able), leaving about 39M conscript-able / workforce males. In 2022, about 37M men (and 35M women) worked in Russia. That means 11M men weren't in the workforce. That somewhat jives with the Central Bank's assertion that Russia has record low unemployment of 3%, once you take out ~2% for those in jail, mental institutions, those that fled the country, etc.

If Ukrainian casualty reports are accurate (e.g. ~380K), that is about 1% (1 out of every 100 males in Russia).

Think about this a moment. 1% of income-earning males in Russia are gone. That productivity, their offspring, the income for family and relatives - poof. That 1% loss doesn't represent Russian military combat effectiveness loss, it represents the overall productivity loss of the country itself. Now multiply this by x10 of the lives they affected (approximately 3.8 million friends, children, wives or other relatives, or 3% of Russia effected by trauma, shock, horror, etc.). Russia has a land area of 6.6M sq miles. That means Russia has a population density of about 22 people per square mile. That's about the same population density as Idaho (and makes Nevada or Nebraska seem buff in comparison).

How does the Kremlin cope if, as you say, Russia has infinite resources?

"The Kremlin has changed its rules so troops with serious injuries can be redeployed."
"units of hundreds of disabled soldiers have been formed without the soldiers having been properly examined by medics or receiving adequate care"
"Mikhail now walks with a cane, and has joined a unit of other disabled and injured soldiers that will be used as an "assault battalion" in Ukraine."
"They in the regiment are already laughing through tears - what kind of assault with sticks and on crutches?"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-sending-injured-disabled-soldiers-132343876.html

It's a win-win for the Kremlin. Fewer pensions to pay, fewer disgruntled soldiers to complain at home.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Hard working Americans that lay sheet rock today, frame homes, and roof, should not have to pay taxes to support a war effort that wealthy Ukranians turn their back on.

Ukraine is a not a country is a former province with a gas station.


Interesting. All the Russian trolls must be busy dying in Ukraine. Now all we get is an incoherent AI chat bot.
Anonymous
Arestovych throwing gasoline on the fire:

Some choice quotes:
"For us, this most likely means opening gold and foreign exchange reserves and printing the hryvnia.

Inflation.

Big problems at the front.

Today it is customary to scold Zelensky and his team for the failure of their policies in the West and inside Ukraine.

But I recommend looking at the situation more broadly.

The entire West is losing, both globalists and isolationists - and we, who bet on it, due to our stupidity."

"The problem is not that they can’t give us money.

The problem is that they can’t give us shells."

"Now they have to choose between three conflicts - Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel.

Dragging 70,000 shells from Israel to Ukraine and back is the culmination of the failure to fight the war that was forced on them.

At this rate, they will have a fourth and fifth conflict, I suspect, although in order to somehow cope with one (!) they need to stop helping in the other two.

For us this means disaster."

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Hard working Americans that lay sheet rock today, frame homes, and roof, should not have to pay taxes to support a war effort that wealthy Ukranians turn their back on.

Ukraine is a not a country is a former province with a gas station.


^ This is just more of the same deluded, deranged nonsense from halfwit Kremlin propagandists who brought us things like "ZeLEnSKy'S YaCHtS!!!"

Poroshenko and many other Ukrainian oligarchs have pumped millions of their own personal wealth into supporting this war.

And meanwhile, millions of blue collar Russian workers are having to pay taxes to support a war effort they no longer support while Russian oligarchs continue to enrich themselves off of this war. And what about the families of the Russian soldiers who are serving, who have repeatedly been lied to about pay, being made to pay for their own supplies, being jerked around and betrayed by the Russian military? https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-soldiers-salaries-unpaid-ukraine-invasion/32345161.html And what about the lies being told by Russia to dodge paying out when the soldiers have in fact been killed? They have in many cases just left bodies behind. https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-officers-refused-collect-dead-soldiers-pay-their-families-convict-2023-8 and when the Russian army does recover the body they hold the family ransom and make them pay if they want their dead loved one to have a burial. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/russia-charging-families-dead-soldiers-094108664.html
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Arestovych throwing gasoline on the fire:

Some choice quotes:
"For us, this most likely means opening gold and foreign exchange reserves and printing the hryvnia.

Inflation.

Big problems at the front.

Today it is customary to scold Zelensky and his team for the failure of their policies in the West and inside Ukraine.

But I recommend looking at the situation more broadly.

The entire West is losing, both globalists and isolationists - and we, who bet on it, due to our stupidity."

"The problem is not that they can’t give us money.

The problem is that they can’t give us shells."

"Now they have to choose between three conflicts - Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel.

Dragging 70,000 shells from Israel to Ukraine and back is the culmination of the failure to fight the war that was forced on them.

At this rate, they will have a fourth and fifth conflict, I suspect, although in order to somehow cope with one (!) they need to stop helping in the other two.

For us this means disaster."


Huh. Sometimes translations don’t really illuminate things.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Arestovych throwing gasoline on the fire:

Some choice quotes:
"For us, this most likely means opening gold and foreign exchange reserves and printing the hryvnia.

Inflation.

Big problems at the front.

Today it is customary to scold Zelensky and his team for the failure of their policies in the West and inside Ukraine.

But I recommend looking at the situation more broadly.

The entire West is losing, both globalists and isolationists - and we, who bet on it, due to our stupidity."

"The problem is not that they can’t give us money.

The problem is that they can’t give us shells."

"Now they have to choose between three conflicts - Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel.

Dragging 70,000 shells from Israel to Ukraine and back is the culmination of the failure to fight the war that was forced on them.

At this rate, they will have a fourth and fifth conflict, I suspect, although in order to somehow cope with one (!) they need to stop helping in the other two.

For us this means disaster."



Arestovych is rightly chiding US Republicans for their brain-dead intransigence.
Anonymous
The state media of a country that has recently threatened US with nuclear attacks are literally cheering on the Republicans in their anti Ukraine funding stances as helping them.

Anonymous

Republican front runner Trump was tickled orange shade of pink by Putin’s approval of his position on Ukraine and that Putin expressed support for him in midst of 90 felony indictments. Trump basks in the approval of the leader of the country that is threatening US with nuclear attacks and has invaded several neighbors in illegal land grabs …

The Guardian

Donald Trump pleased at praise from Putin: ‘I like that he said that’
Former US president makes comment in interview with NBC after being told Putin approved of his stance on Russia invasion

Ramon Antonio Vargas
Sat 16 Sep 2023 09.55 EDT

Donald Trump enjoyed hearing that he had drawn praise from the Russian leader Vladimir Putin, the former US president and frontrunner for the 2024 Republican White House nomination has said.

Told during a recorded interview with Kristen Welker, the new NBC Meet the Press moderator, that Putin had fawned over his stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Trump replied: “I like that he said that. Because that means what I’m saying is right.”

Legal action against Trump shows ‘rottenness’ of US politics, says Putin
Trump’s remarks to Welker – circulated by NBC on Friday to promote the interview with the ex-president, which is scheduled to air on Sunday morning – drew condemnation from some political quarters. In a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, the Republicans against Trump group shared a clip of the comments and wrote to its nearly half-million followers: “A vote for Trump is a vote against America.”

One of the overarching themes during Trump’s lone term in the Oval Office centered on Russia’s meddling in the 2016 presidential election, which Trump won.
Putin has endorsed Trump’s repeated boasts that he could bring Russia’s conflict with Ukraine to an end within a matter of hours if he were elected to a second term in the White House.

“Mr Trump says he will resolve all burning issues within several days, including the Ukrainian crisis,” Putin said at an economic forum in Russia recently. “We cannot help but feel happy about it.”

Trump’s boasts on that topic have earned him derision from his Republican and Democratic opponents, saying a conclusion to the conflict would require a surrender to demands from Putin, whose forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022. But, in his conversation with Welker, Trump doubled down on his position, saying he would simply get Putin and Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy “into a room and I would get a deal worked out”.

Asked by Welker for specifics on precisely how he would bring a swift conclusion to the war in Ukraine, Trump declined to answer, saying: “If I tell you exactly, I lose all my bargaining chips.”

“I mean, you can’t really say exactly what you’re going to do,” Trump told Welker, according to NBC. “But I would say certain things to Putin. I would say certain things to Zelenskiy.”

Welker noted to Trump that Russian bombs had destroyed maternity wards, and forces under Putin’s command had deliberately attacked civilians. Furthermore, the international criminal court (ICC) in the Hague in March issued an arrest warrant for Putin, accusing him of war crimes in connection with the abduction of Ukrainian children.

“It’s all terrible,” Trump told Welker.
Trump has been facing more than 90 criminal charges across four separate indictments charging him with attempted subversion of the 2020 election that he lost to his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, retention of classified information after his presidency and hush-money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.

Civil cases he is grappling with include a $250m lawsuit by the New York attorney general about his business affairs as well as a defamation claim stemming from a rape accusation that a judge has deemed to be “substantially true”.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Hard working Americans that lay sheet rock today, frame homes, and roof, should not have to pay taxes to support a war effort that wealthy Ukranians turn their back on.

Ukraine is a not a country is a former province with a gas station.


Spoken like a true Russian. Ukrainians are people. People who want to be free of Russian tyranny. People who want to determine their own fate.

It's a concept that Russians serving their government wouldn't understand. They're just slaves, for all intents and purposes.


DP and I am Ukrainian. I totally support PP and a lot of Ukrainians sick and tired of this ongoing money laundering. Everyone in Ukraine knows the war will stop as soon as Americans will stop pumping money into it.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Hard working Americans that lay sheet rock today, frame homes, and roof, should not have to pay taxes to support a war effort that wealthy Ukranians turn their back on.

Ukraine is a not a country is a former province with a gas station.


Spoken like a true Russian. Ukrainians are people. People who want to be free of Russian tyranny. People who want to determine their own fate.

It's a concept that Russians serving their government wouldn't understand. They're just slaves, for all intents and purposes.


DP and I am Ukrainian. I totally support PP and a lot of Ukrainians sick and tired of this ongoing money laundering. Everyone in Ukraine knows the war will stop as soon as Americans will stop pumping money into it.



What part of Ukraine? Russian or Ukrainian speaking?

Are you prepared to become a Russian satellite town? And to get thrown in jail for disagreeing with Putin?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Hard working Americans that lay sheet rock today, frame homes, and roof, should not have to pay taxes to support a war effort that wealthy Ukranians turn their back on.

Ukraine is a not a country is a former province with a gas station.


Spoken like a true Russian. Ukrainians are people. People who want to be free of Russian tyranny. People who want to determine their own fate.

It's a concept that Russians serving their government wouldn't understand. They're just slaves, for all intents and purposes.


DP and I am Ukrainian. I totally support PP and a lot of Ukrainians sick and tired of this ongoing money laundering. Everyone in Ukraine knows the war will stop as soon as Americans will stop pumping money into it.


DP then PP to whom you are replying

First I am so sorry your country is experiencing this ongoing nightmare. Praying for it to end and for Ukraine to be free from Russian tyranny.

I am amazed that public support remains so strong in Ukraine for the way defense despite the unbelievable human costs . It must be a terrible burden to bear. Also praying for Russian innocents - most of them did not ask for this war of choice.

ttps://news.gallup.com/poll/512258/ukrainians-stand-behind-war-effort-despite-fatigue.aspx#:~:text=Residents%20in%20the%20North%20of,also%20supports%20fighting%20to%20victory.

OCTOBER 9, 2023
Ukrainians Stand Behind War Effort Despite Some Fatigue

BY BENEDICT VIGERS

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
* Majority want Ukraine to fight until it wins the war
* Ukrainians who want to keep fighting see victory as regaining Crimea
* Almost universal support for the Ukrainian military


This article is the first in a series based on Gallup's surveys in Ukraine this summer.
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- After 18 months of grinding conflict, Ukrainians remain deeply committed to winning the war with Russia -- although slightly less so than they were in the early months of the war.

Three in five (60%) Ukrainians interviewed in July and August said they want Ukraine to keep fighting until it wins, twice as many as those who want Ukraine to negotiate to end the war as soon as possible (31%). Ukrainians’ commitment is slightly muted from what it was in September 2022, when 70% of Ukrainians said they wanted their country to keep fighting, but the majority still staunchly support the war.

Majority Still Want Ukraine to Fight Until Victory, but Fatigue Inches Up
Which of the following statements about the war with Russia comes closest to your personal views?

Table showing a majority of Ukrainians still support fighting until it wins the war (60%), but that the proportion who favor a negotiation to end the war as soon as possible has crept up to 31%
MISSING: summary MISSING: current-rows.
hen the first tanks rolled across Ukraine’s border in late February 2022, Russian troops were expected to take the capital -- Kyiv -- within a matter of weeks, if not days.

But over a year and a half later, a combination of strong Ukrainian resistance and logistical problems within Russia’s army has resulted in a protracted, attritional conflict. Ukrainian forces, supplied with arms from an alliance of Western countries, are battling across a long front line.

In early June 2023, Ukrainian forces began a long-anticipated counteroffensive focusing on the occupied South. Progress has been slow, but Ukraine claims to have had recent success in breaching Russian defenses.

Regions Closest to the Front Line Most Likely to Favor a Quick Resolution: Although the majority of Ukrainians support fighting until victory, this sentiment is not shared equally across Ukraine. Residents in the North of Ukraine (72%) -- including Kyiv -- and the West (71%) are most supportive of continuing the fight even as they come under increasing attack from Russian shells. A clear majority in the Center (64%) of Ukraine also supports fighting to victory.

In the South (45%) and East (52%) regions closest to the front line, support for continuing the fight is still lower than the rest of the country. As a result, the proportion who favor a negotiated end to the war as quickly as possible is also highest in the South (41%) and East (39%).

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a key figure in national support for the war. His personal approval ratings remain sky-high in 2023 (81%). Ukrainians who approve of Zelenskyy’s leadership are significantly more likely to favor a fight to victory (65%) than those who disapprove (48%).

Ukrainians Are Unequivocal in What It Means to Win the War: Gallup asked those who said Ukraine should fight until victory what would have to happen for their country to declare it had won the war with Russia. Their response was almost unanimous: 91% believe that a victory means regaining all territory lost between 2014 and now, including Crimea. This is unchanged from 2022 (91%).

Ukrainians Unequivocal That Victory Means Regaining Crimea

Which of following would have to happen for Ukraine to declare it won the war against Russia?

Table showing that 92% of respondents who think Ukraine should continue fighting until it wins the war, believe that winning means regaining all territory list since 2014, including Crimea.
When all territory lost between 2014 and now is regained, including Crimea

91%
When all territory lost between 2014 and now is regained, except for Crimea

4%
When all territory lost since February 2022 is regained

3%
Among respondents who think Ukraine should continue fighting until it wins the war.

Crimea has been central to the conflict since 2014, when it came under Russian control. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said several times that Ukraine would recapture the Crimean Peninsula by any means deemed necessary. Ukraine has stepped up its offensive in Crimea in recent months, using NATO-supplied weapons to attack the peninsula by sea and air, including a recent missile attack that struck Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in the port city of Sevastopol.
The People Stand Behind Their Military: Ukrainians’ faith in their troops remains unshakeable, with 95% having confidence in the military in 2023, in line with the previous year when the war broke out (94%). In 2022, only Azerbaijan (97%) had more confidence in its military than Ukraine. Faith in the armed forces is widespread across all regions.

Almost Universal Confidence in Ukraine's Military
In this country, do you have confidence in each of the following, or not? How about the military?
Line chart showing the rise in confidence in the military in Ukraine since the war began in 2022. In 2023, confidence stood at 95%.

But as the war grinds on, fears are rising in Ukraine of maintaining military recruitment levels that allow them to fight into the future. This has led to military recruitment campaigns aimed at encouraging men to enlist in an institution that almost all Ukrainians have confidence in.

Bottom Line
Gallup’s surveys conducted in 2023 suggest that a small minority of Ukrainians have changed their minds in the last year and now favor a quick resolution to end the fighting. But Ukraine’s leaders -- and their backers in the West -- will be reassured by the continued widespread civic demand to keep fighting until the war is won.
Maintaining support for continuing the conflict is crucial when the public has such a clear idea of what victory looks like: that is, reclaiming full territorial sovereignty over land lost since 2014, including the Crimean Peninsula.

An end to the fighting currently seems a long way off. Until that day comes, Ukraine remains under bombardment from land and air. Personal tragedies multiply by the day as more soldiers are laid to rest beneath flags commemorating the fallen. But most of the population remains resolute, hoping soon to see a day when the war is won.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Give Putin the ethnic Russian east already.


That's like saying "give Mexico the ethnic Spanish Texas already". lol
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Hard working Americans that lay sheet rock today, frame homes, and roof, should not have to pay taxes to support a war effort that wealthy Ukranians turn their back on.

Ukraine is a not a country is a former province with a gas station.


Spoken like a true Russian. Ukrainians are people. People who want to be free of Russian tyranny. People who want to determine their own fate.

It's a concept that Russians serving their government wouldn't understand. They're just slaves, for all intents and purposes.


DP and I am Ukrainian. I totally support PP and a lot of Ukrainians sick and tired of this ongoing money laundering. Everyone in Ukraine knows the war will stop as soon as Americans will stop pumping money into it.



What part of Ukraine? Russian or Ukrainian speaking?

Are you prepared to become a Russian satellite town? And to get thrown in jail for disagreeing with Putin?


Majority of Eastern Ukraine and south is already Russian towns. It has been 9 years for Crimea, over 4 years for eastern part and almost 2 years for southern part. They had plenty time to prepare and to adjust.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Hard working Americans that lay sheet rock today, frame homes, and roof, should not have to pay taxes to support a war effort that wealthy Ukranians turn their back on.

Ukraine is a not a country is a former province with a gas station.


Spoken like a true Russian. Ukrainians are people. People who want to be free of Russian tyranny. People who want to determine their own fate.

It's a concept that Russians serving their government wouldn't understand. They're just slaves, for all intents and purposes.


DP and I am Ukrainian. I totally support PP and a lot of Ukrainians sick and tired of this ongoing money laundering. Everyone in Ukraine knows the war will stop as soon as Americans will stop pumping money into it.



What part of Ukraine? Russian or Ukrainian speaking?

Are you prepared to become a Russian satellite town? And to get thrown in jail for disagreeing with Putin?


Majority of Eastern Ukraine and south is already Russian towns. It has been 9 years for Crimea, over 4 years for eastern part and almost 2 years for southern part. They had plenty time to prepare and to adjust.


You sound Russian referring to these occupied peoples as “they”
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