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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/12/us/politics/russia-intelligence-assessment.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

For those facing paywall -

[b]Russia Has Suffered Staggeringly High Losses, U.S. Report Says
The declassified intelligence assessment also found that Russia’s objective has been eroding Western support for Ukraine, the country it invaded.
[/b]

By Julian E. Barnes
Dec. 12, 2023 Updated 1:02 p.m. ET

The Russian push in eastern Ukraine this fall and winter was designed to sap Western support for Ukraine, according to a newly declassified American intelligence assessment.

The drive has resulted in heavy losses but has not led to strategic gains on the battlefield for Russia, said Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council.

Since the beginning of the war Russia has suffered from a staggeringly high number of losses, according to another newly declassified assessment shared with Congress. At the start of the war the Russian army stood at 360,000 troops. Russia has lost 315,000 of those troops, forcing them to recruit and mobilize new recruits and convicts from their prison system.

Moscow’s equipment has also been crushed, according to the assessment. At the start of the war, Russia had 3,500 tanks but has lost 2,200, forcing them to pull 50 year old T-62 tanks from storage.

The assessment says the Russian losses have reduced the complexity of Russia’s recent military operations in Ukraine.
“The war in Ukraine has sharply set back 15 years of Russian effort to modernize its ground force,” the declassified assessment said. “As of late November, Russia had lost over a quarter of its pre-2022 stockpile of ground forces equipment and has suffered casualties among its trained professional army.”

In the most recent push, Russia has suffered more than 13,000 people killed and wounded and lost more than 220 combat vehicles while fighting near Avdiivka and other cities, Ms. Watson said.

Russian forces had hoped for a swift breakthrough but encountered stiff Ukrainian resistance. Ukraine has moved forces from the south to reinforce its troops in the east. While Ukraine too has suffered causalities, its losses are not as significant as Russia’s, U.S. officials have said. Casualty figures on both sides of the conflict are estimates, according to American officials. Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not disclose official figures.

he information was declassified as President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine visits Washington to help press the case that his country needs more American aid to help defend against the continued assault.
The White House is asking for $50 billion in additional security aid for Ukraine. But many conservative Republicans are skeptical about the country’s ability to win the war and want major changes in U.S. border security policy as part of a funding agreement.

Ms. Watson said the push by Russia is related to the funding debates in Congress. The declassified intelligence assessed that Russia “seems to believe that a military deadlock through the winter will drain Western support for Ukraine,” Ms. Watson said.

Russia, Ms. Watson said, continues to have shortages of soldiers and weaponry but is pushing in Eastern Ukraine despite its losses with hope of gaining an advantage.
Russia is closely tracking the debate in Congress, Ms. Watson said. Other U.S. officials briefed on intelligence reports agreed and said President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia believes he is beginning to see success in his strategy of trying to out wait the West.

Julian E. Barnes covers the U.S. intelligence agencies and international security matters for The Times. He has written about security issues for more than two decades. More about Julian E. Barnes
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Western "Intelligence" really likes to throw out these crazy casualty numbers and rags like WAPO dutifully trumpet them. Somehow they lost 315,000 of 360,000 and they are still pushing Ukraine to the breaking point. There are probably a few people still probably believe it too.

Either WAPO or the letter boys are getting lazy since they didn't talk about how Russia is out of ammo, tanks, fuel and money as well. [/quote]

Russia had a population of 144 million, 2/3rds of which were in the 15-64 age range (conscript-able/workforce age), of approximately 96M.   Russia has about 26M children ages 0 to 15 and 24.5M (17%) are 65+.  There are 42M pensioners in Russia.  Assuming all elderly are pensioners, that means there are about 17.5M pensioners within the workforce/conscript-able range that need to be removed from the 96M, leaving 78.5M.  Approximately half are women (generally non-conscript-able), leaving about 39M conscript-able / workforce males.  In 2022, about 37M men (and 35M women) worked in Russia.  That means 11M men weren't in the workforce.  That somewhat jives with the Central Bank's assertion that Russia has record low unemployment of 3%, once you take out ~2% for those in jail, mental institutions,  those that fled the country, etc.

If Ukrainian casualty reports are accurate (e.g. ~380K), that is about 1% (1 out of every 100 males in Russia).

Think about this a moment. 1% of income-earning males in Russia are gone.  That productivity, their offspring, the income for family and relatives - poof.  That 1% loss doesn't represent Russian military combat effectiveness loss, it represents the overall productivity loss of the country itself.  Now multiply this by x10 of the lives they affected (approximately 3.8 million friends, children, wives or other relatives, or 3% of Russia effected by trauma, shock, horror, etc.).  Russia has a land area of 6.6M sq miles.  That means Russia has a population density of about 22 people per square mile.  That's about the same population density as Idaho (and makes Nevada or Nebraska seem buff in comparison).

How does the Kremlin cope if, as you say, Russia has infinite resources?

"The Kremlin has changed its rules so troops with serious injuries can be redeployed."
"units of hundreds of disabled soldiers have been formed without the soldiers having been properly examined by medics or receiving adequate care"
"Mikhail now walks with a cane, and has joined a unit of other disabled and injured soldiers that will be used as an "assault battalion" in Ukraine."
"They in the regiment are already laughing through tears - what kind of assault with sticks and on crutches?"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-sending-injured-disabled-soldiers-132343876.html

It's a win-win for the Kremlin.  Fewer pensions to pay, fewer disgruntled soldiers to complain at home.[/quote]

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