Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile in Minnesota, which Trump lost by only 1 1/2 points:

The STRIB/Mason-Dixon poll tested 4 Dems vs Trump in Minnesota:

Biden: 50-38 (Biden +12)
Warren: 51-40 (Warren +11)
Sanders: 49-40 (Sanders +9)
Klobuchar: 55-38 (Klobuchar +17)

http://www.startribune.com/trump-trails-top-democrats-in-new-minnesota-poll/563399592/

Wasn’t Trump there just a few weeks back to foment hate?

He was, and it worked - because now we hate him even more

[Anonymous]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/466687-percentage-of-americans-citing-government-as-top-us-problem-jumps

A near record high number of Americans are citing government as a top U.S. problem, according to a new poll.

A Gallup poll released Monday found 34 percent of Americans listed the government, poor leadership or politicians as the most important problem in the U.S.

The figures represent an 11-point increase since September, and the 34 percent figure is just one point shy of the all-time high Gallup recorded on the issue in February, after the government shutdown ended.

While both Democrats and Republicans are more likely now to cite government and politicians as a crucial problem, Democrats are more annoyed with the White House, according to Gallup, while Republicans broadly approve of Trump and disapprove of Congress.
The poll also found that respondents are less satisfied with the direction of the country.

Twenty-eight percent say they are satisfied with the country's direction, a five-point fall from February. The party shifts on the question are huge, with 53 percent of Republicans s

aying they are satisfied compared to just 11 percent of Democrats and 26 percent of Independents.

[Anonymous]

More Americans say they are absolutely certain to vote in 2020 (72%) now, a year+ before the election, than said they were absolutely certain to vote a month before the 2016 election (66%).
https://www.prri.org/research/fractured-nation-widening-partisan-polarization-and-key-issues-in-2020-presidential-elections/

[Anonymous]

First post-debate national poll, from @surveyusa (with change from Sept.)

Biden 32 (-1)
Warren 22 (+3)
Sanders 17 (0)
Harris 7 (+1)
Buttigieg 5 (0)

All else ? 2
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3f8c15c0-bab5-4d13-b944-5b368f707417

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:More Americans say they are absolutely certain to vote in 2020 (72%) now, a year+ before the election, than said they were absolutely certain to vote a month before the 2016 election (66%).
https://www.prri.org/research/fractured-nation-widening-partisan-polarization-and-key-issues-in-2020-presidential-elections/

All polls are suspect. My mother falls into a demographic category that is very likely to vote D in the next election. She received a call from a polling service. They asked a few questions and when she did not give the expected answer they hung up.

[Anonymous]

NEW Democratic primary tracking:

Biden: 30% (-2 since pre-debate)
Warren: 21%
Sanders: 18% (-1)
Buttigieg: 6% (+1)
Harris: 6%
Booker: 3% (+1)
O'Rourke: 3%
Yang: 3%

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary-2/

Based on 11,521 interviews with Dem primary voters conducted Oct. 16-20; MoE +/- 1.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:NEW Democratic primary tracking:

Biden: 30% (-2 since pre-debate)
Warren: 21%
Sanders: 18% (-1)
Buttigieg: 6% (+1)
Harris: 6%
Booker: 3% (+1)
O'Rourke: 3%
Yang: 3%

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary-2/

Based on 11,521 interviews with Dem primary voters conducted Oct. 16-20; MoE +/- 1.

I think the positive news generated by the debate for Klobuchar is just really percolating up in the last couple of days. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a little more movement than is being picked up in this poll.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More Americans say they are absolutely certain to vote in 2020 (72%) now, a year+ before the election, than said they were absolutely certain to vote a month before the 2016 election (66%).
https://www.prri.org/research/fractured-nation-widening-partisan-polarization-and-key-issues-in-2020-presidential-elections/

All polls are suspect. My mother falls into a demographic category that is very likely to vote D in the next election. She received a call from a polling service. They asked a few questions and when she did not give the expected answer they hung up.

Color me skeptical. I’m a unicorn - an x-llennial with a landline - and I get polled quite a bit. I’ve never once had someone hang up on me for the “wrong” answer because that wouldn’t be a legitimate poll. I suspect your mother got polled by some shady candidate, not a real firm.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:More Americans say they are absolutely certain to vote in 2020 (72%) now, a year+ before the election, than said they were absolutely certain to vote a month before the 2016 election (66%).
https://www.prri.org/research/fractured-nation-widening-partisan-polarization-and-key-issues-in-2020-presidential-elections/

Dang. Those are some great numbers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More Americans say they are absolutely certain to vote in 2020 (72%) now, a year+ before the election, than said they were absolutely certain to vote a month before the 2016 election (66%).
https://www.prri.org/research/fractured-nation-widening-partisan-polarization-and-key-issues-in-2020-presidential-elections/

Dang. Those are some great numbers.

Turnout is going to be THE story of 2020. 2018 turnout was the highest for a midterm in a hundred years. Take that trend and apply it to a presidential election and it’s really, really encouraging.

[Anonymous]

Florida head-to-head: UNF poll

Biden 48%, Trump 43%
Warren 46%, Trump 43%

Trump 43%, Buttigieg 42%
Trump 44%, Harris 41%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Florida head-to-head: UNF poll

Biden 48%, Trump 43%
Warren 46%, Trump 43%

Trump 43%, Buttigieg 42%
Trump 44%, Harris 41%

That is promising!

Also:

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/466901-florida-voters-split-over-impeachment-poll

Florida voters are split over support for the House impeachment inquiry into President Trump, according to a new poll.

A University of North Florida poll released Tuesday found 48 percent of Florida voters approve the House impeachment inquiry, and 47 percent disapprove.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More Americans say they are absolutely certain to vote in 2020 (72%) now, a year+ before the election, than said they were absolutely certain to vote a month before the 2016 election (66%).
https://www.prri.org/research/fractured-nation-widening-partisan-polarization-and-key-issues-in-2020-presidential-elections/

All polls are suspect. My mother falls into a demographic category that is very likely to vote D in the next election. She received a call from a polling service. They asked a few questions and when she did not give the expected answer they hung up.

I got a similar call in 2017. "Are you happy with the Trump presidency?" It was an older woman. It was on our land line. I am listed as a republican voter. When I gave an negative answer to the very first question she said she was having trouble understanding and she hung up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More Americans say they are absolutely certain to vote in 2020 (72%) now, a year+ before the election, than said they were absolutely certain to vote a month before the 2016 election (66%).
https://www.prri.org/research/fractured-nation-widening-partisan-polarization-and-key-issues-in-2020-presidential-elections/

All polls are suspect. My mother falls into a demographic category that is very likely to vote D in the next election. She received a call from a polling service. They asked a few questions and when she did not give the expected answer they hung up.

I got a similar call in 2017. "Are you happy with the Trump presidency?" It was an older woman. It was on our land line. I am listed as a republican voter. When I gave an negative answer to the very first question she said she was having trouble understanding and she hung up.

Maybe I will just start making calls to random numbers to ask if people are happy with the Trump presidency, then hang up whatever answer they give. Just for fun.

[Anonymous]

These polls are ridiculous. That anyone believes the answers they’re getting - either way - makes me concerned about their critical thinking skills.