Democrats November edge evaporates after kavanaugh hearing

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Democrats are gross

No dude. That's just you.

[Anonymous]

If he is confirmed, the Blue Wave will turn into the BLUE TSUNAMI. We already know that the FBI covered up by never interviewing Ford or Kavanaigh and ignoring other people with negative information about Kavanaugh.

It isn't over even when he is confirmed.

[Anonymous]

The most important question was about his demeanor in the hearing and whether or not he lied to the Senate. Am I hearing correctly that the FBI was not allowed to investigate whether or not he lied? I mean, I guess it was obvious that he was, so maybe it doesn't matter, but that to me was the whole point.

What could be more important than the honesty and judicial comportment of a judge?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The most important question was about his demeanor in the hearing and whether or not he lied to the Senate. Am I hearing correctly that the FBI was not allowed to investigate whether or not he lied? I mean, I guess it was obvious that he was, so maybe it doesn't matter, but that to me was the whole point.

What could be more important than the honesty and judicial comportment of a judge?

Clearly, to the Right, you need to be loyal to the President and an activist judge.

[Anonymous]

FiveThirtyEight put out a pretty detailed analysis this morning of how they think the Kavanaugh hearing is affecting midterms: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

On the House side, the upshot is that the numbers have moved back and forth through the process, but overall Republicans are polling slightly worse now than they were before Kavanaugh was nominated, especially if you look at district-level polls.

On the Senate side, Republicans' odds of keeping the Senate have improved overall since Kavanaugh was nominated (like the House, they've fluctuated throughout the process, but never dipped so low that they were in real jeopardy of losing the Senate). What's less clear is whether this improvement is because they're capturing the support of more swing voters or because their committed base has been energized by the Kavanaugh hearings.00 The piece seems to lean toward the conclusion that it's a more energized base compensating for the GOP actually losing swing voters, based on the combination of the Republicans closing the gap between registered and likely voters, but showing less support in polling at the district level. This means that the resolution of the Kavanaugh vote could affect the outcome -- if he's confirmed, the people who were only going to turn out because they were angry about Kavanaugh probably stay home and the GOP overall fares worse in November (but probably still keep the Senate), and if he's not, the Republicans could end up with more of a majority than previously expected.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:FiveThirtyEight put out a pretty detailed analysis this morning of how they think the Kavanaugh hearing is affecting midterms: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

On the House side, the upshot is that the numbers have moved back and forth through the process, but overall Republicans are polling slightly worse now than they were before Kavanaugh was nominated, especially if you look at district-level polls.

On the Senate side, Republicans' odds of keeping the Senate have improved overall since Kavanaugh was nominated (like the House, they've fluctuated throughout the process, but never dipped so low that they were in real jeopardy of losing the Senate). What's less clear is whether this improvement is because they're capturing the support of more swing voters or because their committed base has been energized by the Kavanaugh hearings.00 The piece seems to lean toward the conclusion that it's a more energized base compensating for the GOP actually losing swing voters, based on the combination of the Republicans closing the gap between registered and likely voters, but showing less support in polling at the district level. This means that the resolution of the Kavanaugh vote could affect the outcome -- if he's confirmed, the people who were only going to turn out because they were angry about Kavanaugh probably stay home and the GOP overall fares worse in November (but probably still keep the Senate), and if he's not, the Republicans could end up with more of a majority than previously expected.

538 really led me astray 2 years ago, and I’m not sure I have forgiven them yet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FiveThirtyEight put out a pretty detailed analysis this morning of how they think the Kavanaugh hearing is affecting midterms: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

On the House side, the upshot is that the numbers have moved back and forth through the process, but overall Republicans are polling slightly worse now than they were before Kavanaugh was nominated, especially if you look at district-level polls.

On the Senate side, Republicans' odds of keeping the Senate have improved overall since Kavanaugh was nominated (like the House, they've fluctuated throughout the process, but never dipped so low that they were in real jeopardy of losing the Senate). What's less clear is whether this improvement is because they're capturing the support of more swing voters or because their committed base has been energized by the Kavanaugh hearings.00 The piece seems to lean toward the conclusion that it's a more energized base compensating for the GOP actually losing swing voters, based on the combination of the Republicans closing the gap between registered and likely voters, but showing less support in polling at the district level. This means that the resolution of the Kavanaugh vote could affect the outcome -- if he's confirmed, the people who were only going to turn out because they were angry about Kavanaugh probably stay home and the GOP overall fares worse in November (but probably still keep the Senate), and if he's not, the Republicans could end up with more of a majority than previously expected.

538 really led me astray 2 years ago, and I’m not sure I have forgiven them yet.

538 came the closest of just about anyone to calling the actual result in 2016. They took a ton of heat during the election from people who said they were overestimating Trump's chances, they were the ones saying Trump had a real chance of winning in the final week before the election, and their final forecast gave Trump a 30% chance of winning (which is far from nothing) when other outlets were putting him at single digits.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You guys are missing the point:

It was known from the start that the mid-terms were going to hinge on turn out. The Democrats were really fired up about voting for the various reasons that others have cited. The Republicans were fairly complacent. What has turned things around is the Kavanaugh fracas and the belief by Republicans that he has been hounded and pilloried by Democrats - it does not matter whether this is valid.

I think the Democrats will still take the House but the Senate, at best, will remain in Republican hands and they may even increase their majority.

The thing about Trump is that despite all his nuttiness, he is very savvy politically. He really does not care if Kavanaugh goes down which is why he has stuck with him. If he goes down, you can be sure that he will exploit it to the hilt and enrage Republicans even more and you will likely see a massive turn-out in November. If Kavanaugh is confirmed, Trump will brag about it and drive Republicans to vote because he will say that without a solid majority in the Senate, other appointments are in jeopardy and will cite the Kavanaugh experience.

Democratic incumbent senators in red states are in a bind; their best bet - at least some of them - would be to support Kavanaugh's confirmation. Voting against his confirmation will jeopardize their reelection prospects. Voting in his favor may just possibly help.

We all get the point. We just disagree about what anyone was supposed to do about this. Is your suggestion that we accept this unqualified, dispositionally unfit accused sex predator for the bench because then maybe Trump will keep quiet and Republicans will forget there's an election?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FiveThirtyEight put out a pretty detailed analysis this morning of how they think the Kavanaugh hearing is affecting midterms: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

On the House side, the upshot is that the numbers have moved back and forth through the process, but overall Republicans are polling slightly worse now than they were before Kavanaugh was nominated, especially if you look at district-level polls.

On the Senate side, Republicans' odds of keeping the Senate have improved overall since Kavanaugh was nominated (like the House, they've fluctuated throughout the process, but never dipped so low that they were in real jeopardy of losing the Senate). What's less clear is whether this improvement is because they're capturing the support of more swing voters or because their committed base has been energized by the Kavanaugh hearings.00 The piece seems to lean toward the conclusion that it's a more energized base compensating for the GOP actually losing swing voters, based on the combination of the Republicans closing the gap between registered and likely voters, but showing less support in polling at the district level. This means that the resolution of the Kavanaugh vote could affect the outcome -- if he's confirmed, the people who were only going to turn out because they were angry about Kavanaugh probably stay home and the GOP overall fares worse in November (but probably still keep the Senate), and if he's not, the Republicans could end up with more of a majority than previously expected.

538 really led me astray 2 years ago, and I’m not sure I have forgiven them yet.

538 came the closest of just about anyone to calling the actual result in 2016. They took a ton of heat during the election from people who said they were overestimating Trump's chances, they were the ones saying Trump had a real chance of winning in the final week before the election, and their final forecast gave Trump a 30% chance of winning (which is far from nothing) when other outlets were putting him at single digits.

Ok. So they were less wrong than others. But still wrong. They had HRC in the upper 80’s as of a few days prior, and still 71% on Election Day. I would not call that a win for them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
If being against the mistreatment of other human beings (be it subjugation of women, mistreatment of POC, mistreatment of migrants) and willing to speak against those who try to justify it with a perverted version of Christianity makes me a bigot, then so be it.

I'm happy to hear other opinions about the economy (that don't involve oppression of others), education (that don't involve oppression of others), etc. etc. etc., but I'm not going to sit back and suffer the idiocy of people who are racists or sexists in the name of listening to other "opinions".

The twisted pretzel of conservative defense that being intolerant of intolerance makes you intolerant is ludicrous. Save it.

Admirable and am totally with you. But let us not pretend for one moment that the subjugation of women, mistreatment of POC, persecuting gays and other undesirable traits are not rife in other religions and cultures. Having lived in other countries where these groups were mistreated terribly, I would take the "perverted version of Christianity" any day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FiveThirtyEight put out a pretty detailed analysis this morning of how they think the Kavanaugh hearing is affecting midterms: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

On the House side, the upshot is that the numbers have moved back and forth through the process, but overall Republicans are polling slightly worse now than they were before Kavanaugh was nominated, especially if you look at district-level polls.

On the Senate side, Republicans' odds of keeping the Senate have improved overall since Kavanaugh was nominated (like the House, they've fluctuated throughout the process, but never dipped so low that they were in real jeopardy of losing the Senate). What's less clear is whether this improvement is because they're capturing the support of more swing voters or because their committed base has been energized by the Kavanaugh hearings.00 The piece seems to lean toward the conclusion that it's a more energized base compensating for the GOP actually losing swing voters, based on the combination of the Republicans closing the gap between registered and likely voters, but showing less support in polling at the district level. This means that the resolution of the Kavanaugh vote could affect the outcome -- if he's confirmed, the people who were only going to turn out because they were angry about Kavanaugh probably stay home and the GOP overall fares worse in November (but probably still keep the Senate), and if he's not, the Republicans could end up with more of a majority than previously expected.

538 really led me astray 2 years ago, and I’m not sure I have forgiven them yet.

I understand why you feel that way, I did too. But, it's about confidence intervals.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
If being against the mistreatment of other human beings (be it subjugation of women, mistreatment of POC, mistreatment of migrants) and willing to speak against those who try to justify it with a perverted version of Christianity makes me a bigot, then so be it.

I'm happy to hear other opinions about the economy (that don't involve oppression of others), education (that don't involve oppression of others), etc. etc. etc., but I'm not going to sit back and suffer the idiocy of people who are racists or sexists in the name of listening to other "opinions".

The twisted pretzel of conservative defense that being intolerant of intolerance makes you intolerant is ludicrous. Save it.

Admirable and am totally with you. But let us not pretend for one moment that the subjugation of women, mistreatment of POC, persecuting gays and other undesirable traits are not rife in other religions and cultures. Having lived in other countries where these groups were mistreated terribly, I would take the "perverted version of Christianity" any day.

This is the greatest country in the world, or so we've been told. We don't need to have oppression or perverted versions of Christianity. We could and should be a beacon of freedom, enlightenment and progress for all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FiveThirtyEight put out a pretty detailed analysis this morning of how they think the Kavanaugh hearing is affecting midterms: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

On the House side, the upshot is that the numbers have moved back and forth through the process, but overall Republicans are polling slightly worse now than they were before Kavanaugh was nominated, especially if you look at district-level polls.

On the Senate side, Republicans' odds of keeping the Senate have improved overall since Kavanaugh was nominated (like the House, they've fluctuated throughout the process, but never dipped so low that they were in real jeopardy of losing the Senate). What's less clear is whether this improvement is because they're capturing the support of more swing voters or because their committed base has been energized by the Kavanaugh hearings.00 The piece seems to lean toward the conclusion that it's a more energized base compensating for the GOP actually losing swing voters, based on the combination of the Republicans closing the gap between registered and likely voters, but showing less support in polling at the district level. This means that the resolution of the Kavanaugh vote could affect the outcome -- if he's confirmed, the people who were only going to turn out because they were angry about Kavanaugh probably stay home and the GOP overall fares worse in November (but probably still keep the Senate), and if he's not, the Republicans could end up with more of a majority than previously expected.

538 really led me astray 2 years ago, and I’m not sure I have forgiven them yet.

They did not mislead people. They didn't pick a winner but published statistics, which showed that Hillary was likely (i.e. over 50% chance) to win, but Trump had a significant chance to win, something like 1 out of 4 or 1 out of 5, which are decent odds.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FiveThirtyEight put out a pretty detailed analysis this morning of how they think the Kavanaugh hearing is affecting midterms: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

On the House side, the upshot is that the numbers have moved back and forth through the process, but overall Republicans are polling slightly worse now than they were before Kavanaugh was nominated, especially if you look at district-level polls.

On the Senate side, Republicans' odds of keeping the Senate have improved overall since Kavanaugh was nominated (like the House, they've fluctuated throughout the process, but never dipped so low that they were in real jeopardy of losing the Senate). What's less clear is whether this improvement is because they're capturing the support of more swing voters or because their committed base has been energized by the Kavanaugh hearings.00 The piece seems to lean toward the conclusion that it's a more energized base compensating for the GOP actually losing swing voters, based on the combination of the Republicans closing the gap between registered and likely voters, but showing less support in polling at the district level. This means that the resolution of the Kavanaugh vote could affect the outcome -- if he's confirmed, the people who were only going to turn out because they were angry about Kavanaugh probably stay home and the GOP overall fares worse in November (but probably still keep the Senate), and if he's not, the Republicans could end up with more of a majority than previously expected.

538 really led me astray 2 years ago, and I’m not sure I have forgiven them yet.

538 came the closest of just about anyone to calling the actual result in 2016. They took a ton of heat during the election from people who said they were overestimating Trump's chances, they were the ones saying Trump had a real chance of winning in the final week before the election, and their final forecast gave Trump a 30% chance of winning (which is far from nothing) when other outlets were putting him at single digits.

Ok. So they were less wrong than others. But still wrong. They had HRC in the upper 80’s as of a few days prior, and still 71% on Election Day. I would not call that a win for them.

So if you're rolling a die and I say you only have a 1-in-3 chance of rolling a 1 or 2 and then you do roll a 2, does that mean I was wrong? Does that mean rolling a 1 or 2 was actually more likely than rolling a 3, 4, 5 or 6?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trumps mimicking of Dr. Ford last night did not help Republicans. He gets in front of "his people" and he can't help himself. He starts it, they lap it up, and he just keeps going.

Just like you lap up whatever nonsense is spouted by Hirono, Harris, and Feinstein.
Oh, and don't forget your dear leader Ellison - everyone's favorite wife beater.

No, it's not just like that. Stop lying. Nobody cares about Ellison, stop trying to make that happen.

Oh, and it's funny and sad that, in trying to justify yourself, you have to denigrate 3 women. You do you.

Ellison should be disowned by the Democrats. I don't care for guys who beat up women.

As far as male Democrats who are as odious as the likes of Hirono, etc how about Spartacus Booker and the liar Blumenthal.

What is so "odious" about Hirono? She seems pretty milquetoast, and prior to the Kavanaugh hearings, obscure. Does being a woman make her odious?

She's just their latest POC boogeyman. Can't let those POC, especially female POC, get uppity, dontcha know.

Big on the race card this morning, aren't you?

Pull that string in your back to say the same thing, over and over and over. "No you're the racist, no you're the racist, no you're the racist."

Republicans are tedious morons. At least the ones on this board are.