Resignation most likely outcome?

[Anonymous]

NP here. OP the most likely outcome is:

- Rs maintain control of House in 2018
- Rs pick up Senate seats in 2018 (probably not enough to overcome legislative fillibuster)
- Ds fail to field a viable candidate in 2020 and no prominent R challenges Trump; Trump wins re-election in 2020
- Trump appoints replacements for RBG and Kennedy, either before or after 2020
- Mueller finds some dirt on peripheral Trumpworld people like Flyn, but no finding of criminal wrongdoing for Trump
- Rs continue to dominate state politics able to maintain gerrymanderimg following 2020 census (SCOTUS is a wildcard on this point)

These are my predictions based on my reading of the political realities and the publicly available facts. The big wildcard, as another poster pointed out, is Trump's health over the next 7.5 years.
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I don't think you can count on Rs dominating state politics after Congress guts Medicaid in the health care bill. And maintaining gerrymandering is a wild card as well.

[Anonymous]

He will not make it to 2020. Republican leadership is prepared to jettison him when the time comes. Ryan needs it to be closer to 2018 or even 2020 if at all possible so he can swoop in as the 2020 candidate. He has his eye on the big prize.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

NP here. OP the most likely outcome is:

- Rs maintain control of House in 2018
- Rs pick up Senate seats in 2018 (probably not enough to overcome legislative fillibuster)
- Ds fail to field a viable candidate in 2020 and no prominent R challenges Trump; Trump wins re-election in 2020
- Trump appoints replacements for RBG and Kennedy, either before or after 2020
- Mueller finds some dirt on peripheral Trumpworld people like Flyn, but no finding of criminal wrongdoing for Trump
- Rs continue to dominate state politics able to maintain gerrymanderimg following 2020 census (SCOTUS is a wildcard on this point)

These are my predictions based on my reading of the political realities and the publicly available facts. The big wildcard, as another poster pointed out, is Trump's health over the next 7.5 years.
[Report Post]

I don't think you can count on Rs dominating state politics after Congress guts Medicaid in the health care bill. And maintaining gerrymandering is a wild card as well.

Here's the story of one 44 year Republican who's had enough and crossing over. There are millions more just like him.

http://www.chicagonow.com/politics-now/2017/07/44-years-a-republican-1-year-an-independent-today-im-joining-the-democratic-party/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:He will not make it to 2020. Republican leadership is prepared to jettison him when the time comes. Ryan needs it to be closer to 2018 or even 2020 if at all possible so he can swoop in as the 2020 candidate. He has his eye on the big prize.

Have you never read interviews with Ryan about this? Ryan comes from a line of men who died very young. He is a fitness nut as a consequence but is very aware of his own mortality, far more than other politicians much older than him. It's true he ran for VP to raise his profile but I doubt he will ever run for President. And he would know as well as anyone that House Speaker is not the springboard for that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You all make me laugh. You have gone from not legitimately elected to impeachment and then to resignation. And some back and forth between the three.
It would behoove you to come to terms with the fact that President Trump is our president.

First, read the linked article.

Second, the burgeoning investigation into how Kushner ran the digital platform suggests Trump probably was not legitimately elected.

Third, you scumbag, impeachment is not possible when the GOP refuses to work for the country.

Fourth, go to hell. Everyone here understands that dementia-addled adipose bag is our POTUS. Unlike you, we resent his attempts to steal while in office.

This, well said. But you are probably trying to persuade a bot,

Because anyone you disagree with has to be a "bot" or a "troll," right? Lazy, lazy, lazy.

I refuse to believe real people can be so stupid. Trump has the lowest approval rating of any president in 70 years, lost he popular vote, and won 3 states by a total margin that wouldn't even fill a football stadium. Congressional republicans are pushing legislative measures that 80 percent of the public hated.
There's dreams of electoral glory for republicans in 2018 and 2020 are nothing but delusions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You all make me laugh. You have gone from not legitimately elected to impeachment and then to resignation. And some back and forth between the three.
It would behoove you to come to terms with the fact that President Trump is our president.

First, read the linked article.

Second, the burgeoning investigation into how Kushner ran the digital platform suggests Trump probably was not legitimately elected.

Third, you scumbag, impeachment is not possible when the GOP refuses to work for the country.

Fourth, go to hell. Everyone here understands that dementia-addled adipose bag is our POTUS. Unlike you, we resent his attempts to steal while in office.

This, well said. But you are probably trying to persuade a bot,

Because anyone you disagree with has to be a "bot" or a "troll," right? Lazy, lazy, lazy.

I refuse to believe real people can be so stupid. Trump has the lowest approval rating of any president in 70 years, lost he popular vote, and won 3 states by a total margin that wouldn't even fill a football stadium. Congressional republicans are pushing legislative measures that 80 percent of the public hated.
There's dreams of electoral glory for republicans in 2018 and 2020 are nothing but delusions.

Not so sure. An apathetic electorate can create miracles for the Republicans.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NP here. OP the most likely outcome is:

- Rs maintain control of House in 2018
- Rs pick up Senate seats in 2018 (probably not enough to overcome legislative fillibuster)
- Ds fail to field a viable candidate in 2020 and no prominent R challenges Trump; Trump wins re-election in 2020
- Trump appoints replacements for RBG and Kennedy, either before or after 2020
- Mueller finds some dirt on peripheral Trumpworld people like Flyn, but no finding of criminal wrongdoing for Trump
- Rs continue to dominate state politics able to maintain gerrymanderimg following 2020 census (SCOTUS is a wildcard on this point)

These are my predictions based on my reading of the political realities and the publicly available facts. The big wildcard, as another poster pointed out, is Trump's health over the next 7.5 years.

Adding:

I read the article and it's very weakly argued.

First, if Trump is truly worried about his family going to jail then he'll stay in power as long as he can in order to pardon them. He is distrustful of other people and would never rely on assurances that his family would be pardoned or spared if he resigned.

Second, the professor's main idea is that Trump's pressure on Comey will be the basis for criminal charges. This is highly unrealistic.

Trump can't count on pardoning his son because he can't be sure he's in office after all of the convictions. The safest option for Junior is for Trump to resign. They will probably drop everything at that point.

Read up about Watergate. Nixon resigned but more than a dozen people still went to jail.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You all make me laugh. You have gone from not legitimately elected to impeachment and then to resignation. And some back and forth between the three.
It would behoove you to come to terms with the fact that President Trump is our president.

First, read the linked article.

Second, the burgeoning investigation into how Kushner ran the digital platform suggests Trump probably was not legitimately elected.

Third, you scumbag, impeachment is not possible when the GOP refuses to work for the country.

Fourth, go to hell. Everyone here understands that dementia-addled adipose bag is our POTUS. Unlike you, we resent his attempts to steal while in office.

This, well said. But you are probably trying to persuade a bot,

Because anyone you disagree with has to be a "bot" or a "troll," right? Lazy, lazy, lazy.

I refuse to believe real people can be so stupid. Trump has the lowest approval rating of any president in 70 years, lost he popular vote, and won 3 states by a total margin that wouldn't even fill a football stadium. Congressional republicans are pushing legislative measures that 80 percent of the public hated.
There's dreams of electoral glory for republicans in 2018 and 2020 are nothing but delusions.

Don't underestimate the gullibility of those who voted for Trump. They buy into his alternative reality where all news is fake and he's the victim of an elaborate witch hunt.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You all make me laugh. You have gone from not legitimately elected to impeachment and then to resignation. And some back and forth between the three.
It would behoove you to come to terms with the fact that President Trump is our president.

First, read the linked article.

Second, the burgeoning investigation into how Kushner ran the digital platform suggests Trump probably was not legitimately elected.

Third, you scumbag, impeachment is not possible when the GOP refuses to work for the country.

Fourth, go to hell. Everyone here understands that dementia-addled adipose bag is our POTUS. Unlike you, we resent his attempts to steal while in office.

This, well said. But you are probably trying to persuade a bot,

Because anyone you disagree with has to be a "bot" or a "troll," right? Lazy, lazy, lazy.

I refuse to believe real people can be so stupid. Trump has the lowest approval rating of any president in 70 years, lost he popular vote, and won 3 states by a total margin that wouldn't even fill a football stadium. Congressional republicans are pushing legislative measures that 80 percent of the public hated.
There's dreams of electoral glory for republicans in 2018 and 2020 are nothing but delusions.

Don't underestimate the gullibility of those who voted for Trump. They buy into his alternative reality where all news is fake and he's the victim of an elaborate witch hunt.

Latest poll shows he has already lost the support of districts he flipped from Obama. The base isn't large enough to keep him in power.

[Anonymous]

Dems are pretty effective at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Anonymous]

The Orange Tub O Lard will resign - the job is far too hard for him and he knows it. He will resign in a flurry of "I never needed this job and no one let me do anything" interviews. I think trump has been mentally ill for his entire life but this new obvious dementia is making him beyond just embarrassing - he is dangerous.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Interesting article. This is what I've been thinking as well. At some point, he will realize that this is only going to continue to snowball over the next year and a half. Especially once the midterm campaigns are in full swing . At that time, either the dems take over congress and we start looking at impeachment OR the Rs stay in power, but the 2020 campaigns will soon kick off and (hopefully) the dems will go after him hard! Either way, we will continue uncovering all of his family's skeletons and their name will be mud by the time it's all over. His delicate ego could never take that. He would be wise to just step away. He can just say that he is leaving because he hates this job and made more money before. It would not be out of character for him so his supporters would fall for it.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/trump-russia-columbia-philip-bobbit-collusion-emails-jared-kushner-donald-jr-a7842496.html

When will you whack jobs stop trying to overturn a legitimate election?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Dems are pretty effective at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

As opposed to the republicans who control Comgress and the presidency and haven't passed a single bill of any consequence.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You all make me laugh. You have gone from not legitimately elected to impeachment and then to resignation. And some back and forth between the three.
It would behoove you to come to terms with the fact that President Trump is our president.

First, read the linked article.

Second, the burgeoning investigation into how Kushner ran the digital platform suggests Trump probably was not legitimately elected.

Third, you scumbag, impeachment is not possible when the GOP refuses to work for the country.

Fourth, go to hell. Everyone here understands that dementia-addled adipose bag is our POTUS. Unlike you, we resent his attempts to steal while in office.

This, well said. But you are probably trying to persuade a bot,

Because anyone you disagree with has to be a "bot" or a "troll," right? Lazy, lazy, lazy.

I refuse to believe real people can be so stupid. Trump has the lowest approval rating of any president in 70 years, lost he popular vote, and won 3 states by a total margin that wouldn't even fill a football stadium. Congressional republicans are pushing legislative measures that 80 percent of the public hated.
There's dreams of electoral glory for republicans in 2018 and 2020 are nothing but delusions.

Don't underestimate the gullibility of those who voted for Trump. They buy into his alternative reality where all news is fake and he's the victim of an elaborate witch hunt.

Latest poll shows he has already lost the support of districts he flipped from Obama. The base isn't large enough to keep him in power.

Are those the same "polls" that predicted he would lose those districts and the election last November. I think you now believe them because you want so much for them to be true. Fake news. LOL.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
I refuse to believe real people can be so stupid. Trump has the lowest approval rating of any president in 70 years, lost he popular vote, and won 3 states by a total margin that wouldn't even fill a football stadium. Congressional republicans are pushing legislative measures that 80 percent of the public hated.
There's dreams of electoral glory for republicans in 2018 and 2020 are nothing but delusions.

Says the person who was sure that Hillary would win in a landslide! Who is delusional?

Also, when will you get into your thick skull that the margin of victory is not as important as actually WINNING. Trump won just about every toss up state and then won PA, MI and WI - what does it matter whether he won the states by a million votes or 100K votes? What does it matter whether Ossoff lost by 5 points or 20 points - the reality is that he lost!

What does it matter if Gorsuch was confirmed by barely a majority or the DeVos could only be confirmed with Pence breaking a tie?