Remember the recent bubble and crash -- it could happen again

[Anonymous]

600k for a teardown IS insane.

[Anonymous]

Maybe I should sell now and make my profit...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:600k for a teardown IS insane.

And unattainable. The tear down price in good school areas in Arlington is $700,000-$750,000

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:why is a recent grad on a parenting website let alone worrying about a house?

Overpaid nanny?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:600k for a teardown IS insane.

You should look at the $1.1m year downs then....very insane!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:-End of quantitative easing, accompanied by attendant rise in interest rates. This could result in rapid decompression of the current housing market as we know it.

-Rent > own ratio

-End of IRS housing deduction shifting value from ownership towards rental or migration

-Big Banks and Wall Street hidden speculation

-Local city and county residential real estate tax too high for homeowners who see concomitant drop in services and school quality

-Downsizing from 2400 sq ft to smaller homes or rentals leaving mid size home glut

There is also:

-A looming massive transfer of inter-generational wealth (i.e. inheritances)

-Growing middle class outside the US, including investors who want to own property here b/c they're not allowed own property in their own countries (i.e. China).

-Improving economy, which means rising incomes and better employment

-Growing population

-The fact that much capital has been diverted to equity markets and could still pivot back to real estate

-Currency fluctuations, including stronger dollar

-Much stronger scrutiny of mortgage applications

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No bubble. Values haven't doubled around here. Plus, everyone's money is still in the stock market, it's not being thrown all at real estate. Plus, there's not the same subprime market laying a foundation for foreclosures.

I think real estate will slow down though, significantly, sometime in the next decade. Because these kids in college and high school will refuse to pay over $500k for a shack in a crappy neighborhood, and demand will lull.

No offense, but I'm 5 years out of college, make 150K, and refuse to pay 600K for a "tear down." Y'all are living in a everything-is-fine bubble.

Ain't nothing wrong with renting, kiddo.

[Anonymous]

What's tough for me is that I moved here in 2001, so I don't know what a normal strong market looks like in DC. So maybe this is just a strong market that is enjoying a nice recovery from the crash. Or is it more of a bubble? It's just so hard to know because so much of the housing market rebound has been because of the artificially low rates. So what happens when those go away.

But, as someone else mentioned, rents are also sky high. A home bubble would only happen if the price of home ownership was way higher than the the price to rent. But that's not the case.

So who the hell knows. All I know is that I am getting nervous with the frenzy going on right now. I think the real driver is lack of inventory for a second spring market in a row now.

[Anonymous]

Canary in the coal mine:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/capitalbusiness/inside-the-breakneck-race-to-lease-washington-apartments/2014/03/28/b755dba8-b45c-11e3-8020-b2d790b3c9e1_story.html?hpid=z2

So I guess Emmy will be the new Pets.com sock puppet? Cute idea for the dog, though wonder if it would be unhealthy for them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:600k for a teardown IS insane.

And unattainable. The tear down price in good school areas in Arlington is $700,000-$750,000

throw in walkability/metro with good schools and it is actually $850-900k. Insane.

[Anonymous]

^^ Thanks for that link, PP. Interesting read.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Canary in the coal mine:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/capitalbusiness/inside-the-breakneck-race-to-lease-washington-apartments/2014/03/28/b755dba8-b45c-11e3-8020-b2d790b3c9e1_story.html?hpid=z2

So I guess Emmy will be the new Pets.com sock puppet? Cute idea for the dog, though wonder if it would be unhealthy for them.

sooo... will these apartments be going condo soon? there is still like no inventory, right?

[Anonymous]

I wonder all the time why there are so many apartments and so few condos?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No bubble. Values haven't doubled around here. Plus, everyone's money is still in the stock market, it's not being thrown all at real estate. Plus, there's not the same subprime market laying a foundation for foreclosures.

I think real estate will slow down though, significantly, sometime in the next decade. Because these kids in college and high school will refuse to pay over $500k for a shack in a crappy neighborhood, and demand will lull.

No offense, but I'm 5 years out of college, make 150K, and refuse to pay 600K for a "tear down." Y'all are living in a everything-is-fine bubble.

Well there you go, when you make 150k 5 years out of college it means wages are high enough to support a 600k teardown. At your age that's what you start with.

I make more than anyone else I know with the exception of my lawyer friends. My job straight out of college was 30K. No upward salary movement in that field so I switched to a lucrative field that doesn't use my graduate degree.

To add - at salary of 150K, it would not be a good financial decision to buy a 600K home. 450K at the absolute max.

But housing always go up, so he should leverage as much as he can! Who cares if it is 4x his income, that is old fashioned

That's bubble talk! And I'm not a he, I'm a she. Sorry my expectations seem high. At nearly 30 I want a family and a home. I can afford neither in this area. I've had male friends buy condos (2006) and get stuck underwater & unable to rent for the amount of the mortgage + HOA fees. If I want a family in the next 5 years, that's a terrible decision.

we have a family in and live in a townhouse. i wanted the family more than the expensive house. and our HHI is less than your salary. I think you'll live.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I should sell now and make my profit...

these conversations do make me wonder that.