Remember the recent bubble and crash -- it could happen again

[Anonymous]

As this market becomes increasingly more crazy, let's all not forget that these were our same thoughts back in 2005. It's human nature to forget that and think that "this time is different." It's scary how similar the things I'm seeing and phrases I'm hearing out of people now are to those in the previous bubble. It's almost deja vu.

It's impossible to know what will happen to the housing market in the future and how long this ride will happen, but it's still wise to have some caution.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As this market becomes increasingly more crazy, let's all not forget that these were our same thoughts back in 2005. It's human nature to forget that and think that "this time is different." It's scary how similar the things I'm seeing and phrases I'm hearing out of people now are to those in the previous bubble. It's almost deja vu.

It's impossible to know what will happen to the housing market in the future and how long this ride will happen, but it's still wise to have some caution.

What mechanisms of the previous bubble are still at play?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As this market becomes increasingly more crazy, let's all not forget that these were our same thoughts back in 2005. It's human nature to forget that and think that "this time is different." It's scary how similar the things I'm seeing and phrases I'm hearing out of people now are to those in the previous bubble. It's almost deja vu.

It's impossible to know what will happen to the housing market in the future and how long this ride will happen, but it's still wise to have some caution.

What mechanisms of the previous bubble are still at play?

Human beings are involved.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As this market becomes increasingly more crazy, let's all not forget that these were our same thoughts back in 2005. It's human nature to forget that and think that "this time is different." It's scary how similar the things I'm seeing and phrases I'm hearing out of people now are to those in the previous bubble. It's almost deja vu.

It's impossible to know what will happen to the housing market in the future and how long this ride will happen, but it's still wise to have some caution.

You've provided absolutely no facts for your argument. It might be true but it's a very weak statement on your part.

[Anonymous]

-End of quantitative easing, accompanied by attendant rise in interest rates. This could result in rapid decompression of the current housing market as we know it.

-Rent > own ratio

-End of IRS housing deduction shifting value from ownership towards rental or migration

-Big Banks and Wall Street hidden speculation

-Local city and county residential real estate tax too high for homeowners who see concomitant drop in services and school quality

-Downsizing from 2400 sq ft to smaller homes or rentals leaving mid size home glut

[Anonymous]

-End of IRS housing deduction shifting value from ownership towards rental or migration

Never going to happen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As this market becomes increasingly more crazy, let's all not forget that these were our same thoughts back in 2005. It's human nature to forget that and think that "this time is different." It's scary how similar the things I'm seeing and phrases I'm hearing out of people now are to those in the previous bubble. It's almost deja vu.

It's impossible to know what will happen to the housing market in the future and how long this ride will happen, but it's still wise to have some caution.

What mechanisms of the previous bubble are still at play?

Human beings are involved.

Yes the robot drone buyers are going to fix the issue. WTF are you talking about. All buyers have the largest down payments and are the most qualified in the history of man. The laws have changed in terms of the bank assets etc...

Just cause you want it doesn't mean it is.

[Anonymous]

Remember when the stock market crashed? It can happen again because people are buying stocks.I know 2014 is not even halfway over but OP gets the dcum nobel economist award for 2014. The analysis, argument and supporting theories for another bubble are top notch and deserve recognition.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Remember when the stock market crashed? It can happen again because people are buying stocks.I know 2014 is not even halfway over but OP gets the dcum nobel economist award for 2014. The analysis, argument and supporting theories for another bubble are top notch and deserve recognition.

I "recognize" that OP is a frustrated buyer who can't afford to compete. Had OP actually studied or even understood economics, he or she would understand that the housing market is based on the basic concept of supply and demand. Fireworks are worth far more on July 3 than on July 5th. Until July 5th occurs, be prepared to compete, OP.

[Anonymous]

OP is not alone in saying this may be a bubble. Not sure why some PPs are a little hostile, unless the notion of a bubble makes homeowners upset. Some people who own hate to think that anyone views not buying as the better move.

[Anonymous]

Just trying to understand the underlying factors that has OP concerned.

Pockets if the market do seem a little crazy, but I think that has more to do with pent-up demand and very limited inventory. And rising interest rates.

I think in a few more cycles these pockets will even out, but the bottom won't fall nationally like it did before.

Is OP aware of anything more at play than that?

[Anonymous]

I think homeowners are more than willing to not "hate" anyone who views renting as a better move. The really strident people are the renters who needs to be convinced, for some reason, that housing prices are going to plummet. I assume this is because they wish the market was more affordable.

Rents are high around here, as well. I'm guessing they're 25-30% higher than 2006 rental prices while housing prices in many places are stable or, at most, 10% higher? It seems like for real estate to tank around here would involve the rental market tanking as well, or else all those expensive renters would stabilize the market buying up cheaper places to live.

And for both to tank at the same time would involve a bigtime economic situation that no one is hoping for. No one besides the two income Federal employee renters.

[Anonymous]

No bubble. Values haven't doubled around here. Plus, everyone's money is still in the stock market, it's not being thrown all at real estate. Plus, there's not the same subprime market laying a foundation for foreclosures.

I think real estate will slow down though, significantly, sometime in the next decade. Because these kids in college and high school will refuse to pay over $500k for a shack in a crappy neighborhood, and demand will lull.

[Anonymous]

market correction != bubble popping

[Anonymous]

There's a chance the real estate market tanks again because there's a chance the entire ECONOMY tanks again. I mean, I guess that's what the renters want? Hope you have a stable job and make it through?!?

Until then, keep hoping that for some reason this particular market is targeted for correction without many of the same underlying issues that were present last time. Keep hoping that the Federal government tries to close the budget by eliminating the most popular deduction in the tax system that would force Congress to expand constituent services by 300% just to deal with the phone calls. Maybe Congress will also eliminate the deficit by hiking up taxes on every who makes $1 less than you, and $1 more than you, but not you.