Remember the recent bubble and crash -- it could happen again

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No bubble. Values haven't doubled around here. Plus, everyone's money is still in the stock market, it's not being thrown all at real estate. Plus, there's not the same subprime market laying a foundation for foreclosures.

I think real estate will slow down though, significantly, sometime in the next decade. Because these kids in college and high school will refuse to pay over $500k for a shack in a crappy neighborhood, and demand will lull.

No offense, but I'm 5 years out of college, make 150K, and refuse to pay 600K for a "tear down." Y'all are living in a everything-is-fine bubble.

[Anonymous]

Who cares if it is a bubble? Buy a house you can afford, expect to live in it 5 - 10 years, and expect to break even if you sell.

The last crash was so bad because people bought homes they couldn't afford, and were looking at their houses as a piggy bank rather than a shelter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No bubble. Values haven't doubled around here. Plus, everyone's money is still in the stock market, it's not being thrown all at real estate. Plus, there's not the same subprime market laying a foundation for foreclosures.

I think real estate will slow down though, significantly, sometime in the next decade. Because these kids in college and high school will refuse to pay over $500k for a shack in a crappy neighborhood, and demand will lull.

No offense, but I'm 5 years out of college, make 150K, and refuse to pay 600K for a "tear down." Y'all are living in a everything-is-fine bubble.

Well there you go, when you make 150k 5 years out of college it means wages are high enough to support a 600k teardown. At your age that's what you start with.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No bubble. Values haven't doubled around here. Plus, everyone's money is still in the stock market, it's not being thrown all at real estate. Plus, there's not the same subprime market laying a foundation for foreclosures.

I think real estate will slow down though, significantly, sometime in the next decade. Because these kids in college and high school will refuse to pay over $500k for a shack in a crappy neighborhood, and demand will lull.

No offense, but I'm 5 years out of college, make 150K, and refuse to pay 600K for a "tear down." Y'all are living in a everything-is-fine bubble.

Well there you go, when you make 150k 5 years out of college it means wages are high enough to support a 600k teardown. At your age that's what you start with.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No bubble. Values haven't doubled around here. Plus, everyone's money is still in the stock market, it's not being thrown all at real estate. Plus, there's not the same subprime market laying a foundation for foreclosures.

I think real estate will slow down though, significantly, sometime in the next decade. Because these kids in college and high school will refuse to pay over $500k for a shack in a crappy neighborhood, and demand will lull.

No offense, but I'm 5 years out of college, make 150K, and refuse to pay 600K for a "tear down." Y'all are living in a everything-is-fine bubble.

Nope, sorry. But I do think for your sake the market will slow down to the point where a $600k tear down looks cheap.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No bubble. Values haven't doubled around here. Plus, everyone's money is still in the stock market, it's not being thrown all at real estate. Plus, there's not the same subprime market laying a foundation for foreclosures.

I think real estate will slow down though, significantly, sometime in the next decade. Because these kids in college and high school will refuse to pay over $500k for a shack in a crappy neighborhood, and demand will lull.

No offense, but I'm 5 years out of college, make 150K, and refuse to pay 600K for a "tear down." Y'all are living in a everything-is-fine bubble.

When I was 5 years out of college I lived in an apartment with a roommate and had nowhere near your HHI-- you sound like a complete douche. Who expects to live in their dream home 5 years out of college?

You could afford to buy a nice condo or townhome if you wanted. If you buy smart, it will be something you can earn rental income on once you move up.

[Anonymous]

So someone who gets paid 150k right out of college complains that a starter home in a high end area is 600k. What kind of idiot doesn't see the connection between his high starting wage and high real estate costs?

[Anonymous]

The Case-Shiller for DC is 25% below the market peak, and roughly at 2004 levels. It doesn't seem that frothy to me. People underestimate the pent-up appreciation that was natural in the early 2000s. Part of it was bubble, but a lot of it was the fact that housing in this area appreciated <2% per year from 1990-2000.

When you look at the Case-Shiller now as a linear appreciation since 1990 you get....wait for it....3.5% appreciation per year.

Now we might go stagnant for a while like in 1990, but there's not a lot of evidence that we're ready for a huge drop.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think homeowners are more than willing to not "hate" anyone who views renting as a better move. The really strident people are the renters who needs to be convinced, for some reason, that housing prices are going to plummet. I assume this is because they wish the market was more affordable.

Rents are high around here, as well. I'm guessing they're 25-30% higher than 2006 rental prices while housing prices in many places are stable or, at most, 10% higher? It seems like for real estate to tank around here would involve the rental market tanking as well, or else all those expensive renters would stabilize the market buying up cheaper places to live.

And for both to tank at the same time would involve a bigtime economic situation that no one is hoping for. No one besides the two income Federal employee renters.

So rents are higher now by about 30%? And prices are 10% higher than their PEAK AT THE LAST HOUSING BUBBLE.

Things are different for this bubble than last; subprime is replaced by FHA (have they been bailed out yet?),

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No bubble. Values haven't doubled around here. Plus, everyone's money is still in the stock market, it's not being thrown all at real estate. Plus, there's not the same subprime market laying a foundation for foreclosures.

I think real estate will slow down though, significantly, sometime in the next decade. Because these kids in college and high school will refuse to pay over $500k for a shack in a crappy neighborhood, and demand will lull.

No offense, but I'm 5 years out of college, make 150K, and refuse to pay 600K for a "tear down." Y'all are living in a everything-is-fine bubble.

When I was 5 years out of college I lived in an apartment with a roommate and had nowhere near your HHI-- you sound like a complete douche. Who expects to live in their dream home 5 years out of college?

You could afford to buy a nice condo or townhome if you wanted. If you buy smart, it will be something you can earn rental income on once you move up.

My dream home is a tear down? Really?

[Anonymous]

I think most people fail to consider that we are in a "new normal" of sorts, and that with things like the widening gap between the poor and upper class (i.e. the shrinking middle class), the continued outsourcing of jobs, and the still spiking cost of just about everything, not only are we not going to get back to the good old days, but we are in a precarious economic position for the future. I think unless something fundamental changes, of course we'll have to continue on this trend and yet again shrink the MC; this means some of the existing middle class will suffer and some of the existing upper class will be pushed out.

So, yeah. Of course.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No bubble. Values haven't doubled around here. Plus, everyone's money is still in the stock market, it's not being thrown all at real estate. Plus, there's not the same subprime market laying a foundation for foreclosures.

I think real estate will slow down though, significantly, sometime in the next decade. Because these kids in college and high school will refuse to pay over $500k for a shack in a crappy neighborhood, and demand will lull.

No offense, but I'm 5 years out of college, make 150K, and refuse to pay 600K for a "tear down." Y'all are living in a everything-is-fine bubble.

Well there you go, when you make 150k 5 years out of college it means wages are high enough to support a 600k teardown. At your age that's what you start with.

I make more than anyone else I know with the exception of my lawyer friends. My job straight out of college was 30K. No upward salary movement in that field so I switched to a lucrative field that doesn't use my graduate degree.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No bubble. Values haven't doubled around here. Plus, everyone's money is still in the stock market, it's not being thrown all at real estate. Plus, there's not the same subprime market laying a foundation for foreclosures.

I think real estate will slow down though, significantly, sometime in the next decade. Because these kids in college and high school will refuse to pay over $500k for a shack in a crappy neighborhood, and demand will lull.

No offense, but I'm 5 years out of college, make 150K, and refuse to pay 600K for a "tear down." Y'all are living in a everything-is-fine bubble.

Well there you go, when you make 150k 5 years out of college it means wages are high enough to support a 600k teardown. At your age that's what you start with.

I make more than anyone else I know with the exception of my lawyer friends. My job straight out of college was 30K. No upward salary movement in that field so I switched to a lucrative field that doesn't use my graduate degree.

To add - at salary of 150K, it would not be a good financial decision to buy a 600K home. 450K at the absolute max.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think homeowners are more than willing to not "hate" anyone who views renting as a better move. The really strident people are the renters who needs to be convinced, for some reason, that housing prices are going to plummet. I assume this is because they wish the market was more affordable.

Rents are high around here, as well. I'm guessing they're 25-30% higher than 2006 rental prices while housing prices in many places are stable or, at most, 10% higher? It seems like for real estate to tank around here would involve the rental market tanking as well, or else all those expensive renters would stabilize the market buying up cheaper places to live.

And for both to tank at the same time would involve a bigtime economic situation that no one is hoping for. No one besides the two income Federal employee renters.

Sooo, rents are 30% higher than the rental trough seen during the last bubble (b/c EVERYONE was buying), and 10% higher than the PEAK OF THE CONFIRMED LAST HOUSING BUBBLE.

This bubble is quite different: subprime replaced by FHA (has that been bailed out yet?), CDO has been replaced by QE as the financial innovation (this is tongue in cheek), big banks and rental mutual funds replaced the flippers. Yes this time is different. But you can bet this will be a national mess. SF has twin social media bubble and real estate bubble, and no way in hell are prices in Las Vegas or Phoenix justified. And same here, there are fewer jobs here with defense cuts and law forms consolidating and outsourcing to India, but homes are worth more than top of the last bubble? Fill disclosure we own and don't plan to move for 20 yrs, but I see this as a total disaster.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No bubble. Values haven't doubled around here. Plus, everyone's money is still in the stock market, it's not being thrown all at real estate. Plus, there's not the same subprime market laying a foundation for foreclosures.

I think real estate will slow down though, significantly, sometime in the next decade. Because these kids in college and high school will refuse to pay over $500k for a shack in a crappy neighborhood, and demand will lull.

No offense, but I'm 5 years out of college, make 150K, and refuse to pay 600K for a "tear down." Y'all are living in a everything-is-fine bubble.

When I was 5 years out of college I lived in an apartment with a roommate and had nowhere near your HHI-- you sound like a complete douche. Who expects to live in their dream home 5 years out of college?

You could afford to buy a nice condo or townhome if you wanted. If you buy smart, it will be something you can earn rental income on once you move up.

+1

Save up a downpayment. Or buy a condo first. Start off small like the rest of us.