Is SpaceX really worth $1.75 Trillion?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:SpaceX will fly until inclusion into the indexes. Then, the demand will dry up, just as insider lock ups flood the market with more stock. In 6 months, SpaceX will trade below its IPO price.

market price is around $63/share. If it goes there, I might consider buying some, but until then, it is nothing but hype. The interviews I saw this morning with the institutional investors and key management were worse than anything I had experience during the .com bubble in terms of fluff and hype.

I agree with your sentiment, but right now the market price is $170. I think it's ridiculous, and people are being sold a bill of goods, but right now that's the price they are buying it at on the open market.

Are you sure the market price will be allowed to drop when the CEO is a politically active trillionaire? Nothing is illegal in the financial world these days.

[Anonymous]

I don't know but Morningstar says it's worth $63, with some optimistic assumptions:

https://global.morningstar.com/en-gb/stocks/why-we-think-spacex-ipo-is-overvalued

"We value SpaceX at $63 per share, a 53% discount to the upcoming IPO’s offering price.

Even at $63 per share, we give SpaceX a lot of benefit of the doubt...

In our most optimistic “moonshot” scenario, the company would be worth $1.97 trillion, or $154 a share."

[Anonymous]

SPCX is now trading at approximately 110x sales.

[Anonymous]

So much waste, fraud and abuse happening

[Anonymous]

How is this legal can someone explain to me like I'm five.

[Anonymous]

No.

[Anonymous]

2 trillions

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:SPCX is now trading at approximately 110x sales.

This makes the already extreme overvalued TSLA stock look undervalued at 14x sales.

[Anonymous]

And that profit Elon musk is funneling into elections and grift.

[Anonymous]

SPCX’s current valuation is disconnected from reality. Here are just two examples why (there are many more):

Nvidia has 85% annual revenue growth and its price-to-sales multiple is 14x. SpaceX only has 15% revenue growth, but wanted a price-to-sales multiple approaching 100x (at the IPO price of $135). Think about that hard. SpaceX wants to be valued at a price-to-sales ratio 700% higher than Nvidia who is making gobs and gobs of money.

Here’s another example:

The terrafab that Elon wants to build is going to be 100 million square feet. The industry standard for semiconductor manufacturing is that equipment that fills such a building adds about $20K of cost per square ft so we’re talking a $2 Trillion capital requirement. Where does that money come from? The shareholders (which we all are either directly or indirectly through index funds). If they proceed with these plans SpaceX willneed to come back to the kitty over and over for the next 10 years for new $50-100B in handouts.

Just my two cents

[Anonymous]

The other thing that drove the price up on opening day and the next few days is Nasdaq changed the rules on SpaceX requiring various index funds to stuff this stock into their funds at three times more than normal. So we all bought this stock indirectly in our 401Ks/TSP through these index funds where it can’t be sold. Genius for insiders. Not so much for the SEC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So much waste, fraud and abuse happening

Yep.

[Anonymous]

Shouldn't have much impact on most indexes due to a small percentage of shares being available to the public. Some funds like the S&P 500 don't initially allow an IPO into the index, as they have to show profitability over at least one or two quarters, or something like that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The other thing that drove the price up on opening day and the next few days is Nasdaq changed the rules on SpaceX requiring various index funds to stuff this stock into their funds at three times more than normal. So we all bought this stock indirectly in our 401Ks/TSP through these index funds where it can’t be sold. Genius for insiders. Not so much for the SEC.

Is that correct? It's not in C/I/G/F to TSP right? I think it's in S fund. Same with 401k, it's not in S&p500 yet

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Shouldn't have much impact on most indexes due to a small percentage of shares being available to the public. Some funds like the S&P 500 don't initially allow an IPO into the index, as they have to show profitability over at least one or two quarters, or something like that.

1 year for SpaceX is my understanding for S/P