Is SpaceX really worth $1.75 Trillion?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can’t we just opt out of the Space X situation or is it going to inundate every fund there is?

Unavoidable: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/elon-musks-spacex-could-fast-180121306.html

[Anonymous]

So how much are losses from xAI merger and how much are native to SpaceX?

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/spacexs-ipo-filing-big-spending-big-losses

Apparently we are all owning this in TWO WEEKS: https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/for-spacexs-existing-investors-nasdaqs-fast-entry-rule-could-inject-new-price-volatility

[Anonymous]

SpaceX controls 90% of launches. It basically has a monopoly. There cost to launch a Falcon 9 is probably $15 million but they charge $150 million. That is luxury market goods levels of profit.

A lot is riding on there newer bigger rockets.

[Anonymous]

My strength is not evaluating valuations of companies, but every analysis I've read by those better than me seems to indicate it is grossly overvalued.

[Anonymous]

It is beyond me why investors continue to pay up for Elon’s undeliverables.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It is beyond me why investors continue to pay up for Elon’s undeliverables.

What exactly is he not delivering on?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is beyond me why investors continue to pay up for Elon’s undeliverables.

What exactly is he not delivering on?

He continually strings investors along with happy talk, sometimes pushing out promised deliverables by years. Meanwhile, competition catches up. No one believes that Tesla has any meaningful advantage in electric cars, so now Musk is pivoting. He’s now ramping talk on robots, but while he talks about the future, others are actually producing robots. His space stuff is at the mercy of federal government contracts, thus his insistence on installing his hand-picked guy as head of NASA. His AI is a piece of crap. Starlink might be the one gem, but, ironically, he doesn’t talk about it much. Basically, he hypes big projects with large addressable markets, but he produces stuff years late and at bad profit margins. The constant merging of his various companies is really a shell game — fold the losers into the winners. Everyone is already talking about how he’s going to fold Tesla into SpaceX.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
It is beyond me why investors continue to pay up for Elon’s undeliverables.


What exactly is he not delivering on?


He continually strings investors along with happy talk, sometimes pushing out promised deliverables by years. Meanwhile, competition catches up. No one believes that Tesla has any meaningful advantage in electric cars, so now Musk is pivoting. He’s now ramping talk on robots, but while he talks about the future, others are actually producing robots. His space stuff is at the mercy of federal government contracts, thus his insistence on installing his hand-picked guy as head of NASA. His AI is a piece of crap. Starlink might be the one gem, but, ironically, he doesn’t talk about it much. Basically, he hypes big projects with large addressable markets, but he produces stuff years late and at bad profit margins. The constant merging of his various companies is really a shell game — fold the losers into the winners. Everyone is already talking about how he’s going to fold Tesla into SpaceX.

He has been ahead of the competition. Of course the competition can catch up (and that's not a bad thing). Without Tesla there would not have been EVs starting up. The meaningful advantage now is FSD and the robotaxis that are coming. FSD is very good right now. Robotaxis will bring a lot of value to Tesla. His space stuff is not "at the mercy of the federal government". He has been the ONLY company who can put satellites into space at half the price of others (because of the capture and reuse of the rockets---no other company can do that---do you expect that the federal government will pay someone else twice as much to launch their rockets?).

He has put a lot of money into the robots and other ventures like Neuralink. He has been willing to take some big risks. Yes, they might not all pay off. However, it is undeniable that the efforts and advances made by Tesla and Space X are and will be important to the advances in technology that shape the future.

[Anonymous]

Tesla was first to build a supercharger system for EVs. Their platform has been adopted by other car companies. Much of the Tesla car technology has been adopted by other EV cars. It's amazing to see.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:SpaceX controls 90% of launches. It basically has a monopoly. There cost to launch a Falcon 9 is probably $15 million but they charge $150 million. That is luxury market goods levels of profit.

A lot is riding on there newer bigger rockets.

The space segment had an operating loss of $619M in the first quarter of 2026. The only segment that is profitable is starlink.

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/7-important-things-investors-learned-214000977.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is beyond me why investors continue to pay up for Elon’s undeliverables.

What exactly is he not delivering on?

One of many:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DearMoon_project

[Anonymous]

No

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Space X and Tesla are worth shit, but Elon is a genius at, specifically, getting massive federal government funding and hollowing out federal agencies to replace their competencies with his businesses and making himself indispensable.

He's a large tumor on the American system.

You got that right. SpaceX would be healthy if it was just the space business because they basically own the commercial launch market. Problem is Elon makes tons of money playing three card monte shell games amongst all his companies, which the IPO filing demonstrated. Elon needs SpaceX to take the risk for his Grok and xAI CSAM machine.

What's really sad is that we're all going to pay if SpaceX fails because its going to force itself into everyone's 401k and index funds. Not good!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is beyond me why investors continue to pay up for Elon’s undeliverables.

What exactly is he not delivering on?

One of many:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DearMoon_project

So you're worried that some rich guy didn't get to go to the Moon? Pretty sure SpaceX will survive that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Space X and Tesla are worth shit, but Elon is a genius at, specifically, getting massive federal government funding and hollowing out federal agencies to replace their competencies with his businesses and making himself indispensable.

He's a large tumor on the American system.

You got that right. SpaceX would be healthy if it was just the space business because they basically own the commercial launch market. Problem is Elon makes tons of money playing three card monte shell games amongst all his companies, which the IPO filing demonstrated. Elon needs SpaceX to take the risk for his Grok and xAI CSAM machine.

What's really sad is that we're all going to pay if SpaceX fails because its going to force itself into everyone's 401k and index funds. Not good!

Again, the space business is losing money according to their S-1. It lost $619M in just the first quarter.