The DOGE Downturn - Kensington

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well, ultimately everything comes down to price vs local income and interest rates. Can Rockville support very middling houses priced at $1 million plus when the median income is $64,000 and average mortgage interest rates are 7 percent? No, of course not. Home prices are so far beyond the historical norm that eventually it's going to correct hard.

Overpricing correction. Imagine paying some of these high amounts to live in SS or Rockville.

1M in Rockville is not crazy. It is upper middle class suburbia, pretty much no crime. Bethesda’s entry level homes sell for 1.2-1.3M, and Rockville is just next up in commute distance. It’s the price to pay to not get shot in DC proper

Agreed. Silver spring has also been desirable for a long time

[Anonymous]

I live in an area of silver spring where sfhs are going for around 700k; there is very little for sale and they are still going under contract very fast.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm not sure how one can make a blanket statement about an area by cherry-picking three of the dingiest-looking houses they could find.

It's pretty clear that some of you have never been through this before. The average sales price is indicative of a trend, but this is how a real estate recession works. The average or mean sales price is just indicative of a trend, but what really happens is that the "dingy not perfect" houses are impacted much more than "perfect" houses. When the market is hot, people get desperate and overpay for houses with unfixable flaws (usually location). Perfect houses are always in demand, and may only hold their value, or have a slight decrease. The houses with flaws will sit and drop in price more.

DP
What any given house would have gone for a year ago is a totally subjective judgment.

It is a fact that median prices are up YoY https://rocket.com/homes/market-reports/md/montgomery-county

You realize “median prices” are based on what’s sold, not what’s sitting on the market unsold and is dependent on housing mix? Both inventory and median prices being up supports the theory that only the premium houses are selling.

Where do you see an upward trend in inventory? The link above shows a clear downward trend in inventory.

I'm not trying to say everything is perfect. I think there probably will be major impacts, but they are not here yet.

Inventory is up. So far, there is still demand, but what happens when supply increases is that the best houses absorb the demand and the less perfect houses sit. Agree that the full impact of the layoffs hadn’t been felt yet, so what happens then?

The point is that houses aren’t a commodity — there is no single market clearing price, even for houses in the same neighborhood. How your house will be affected depends on a bunch of factors that tend to less important/get overlooked when inventory is tight.

https://www.redfin.com/news/washington-dc-housing-inventory-government-layoffs/#:~:text=Four%20metros%20saw%20a%20larger,on%20a%20more%20granular%20level.

Active listings of homes for sale in Washington, D.C. jumped 25.1% year over year to the highest level since 2022 during the four weeks ending April 27—the largest gain on record.

By comparison, active listings nationwide rose 14.2%—the smallest increase since March 2024.

Highest level since 2022 means there still isn’t a lot of inventory.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well, ultimately everything comes down to price vs local income and interest rates. Can Rockville support very middling houses priced at $1 million plus when the median income is $64,000 and average mortgage interest rates are 7 percent? No, of course not. Home prices are so far beyond the historical norm that eventually it's going to correct hard.

Overpricing correction. Imagine paying some of these high amounts to live in SS or Rockville.

Are you writing from 2002? Both are very desirable areas now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm worried. There's a new-ish condo near me (in DC) that is listed for $15k less than the owners paid in 2018. Here's the sales history:
2018 - Sold for 730
2022 - Sold for 789
2025 - Listed at 730, dropped to 715 and sitting.

Condos are a horrible investment even in the best of times and really not indicative of the SFH market. The condo I sold in 2004 in upper NW resold for almost the same price in 2020. Almost zero appreciation, but huge increase in the monthly HOA.

[Anonymous]

I wonder how much of this has to do with the end of work from home and people now having to commute back into the city? Because in upper NWDC homes in the $1.5M range continue to move fast, if they even make it to market. I suspect housing outside the beltway may dip but inside will hold or could even tick up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm worried. There's a new-ish condo near me (in DC) that is listed for $15k less than the owners paid in 2018. Here's the sales history:
2018 - Sold for 730
2022 - Sold for 789
2025 - Listed at 730, dropped to 715 and sitting.

Condos are a horrible investment even in the best of times and really not indicative of the SFH market. The condo I sold in 2004 in upper NW resold for almost the same price in 2020. Almost zero appreciation, but huge increase in the monthly HOA.

The advantage is
Having a home you can't get kicked out of
Having nothing to take care of
Part of your payment going to principle

The appreciation is less than single family but they have annual taxes that go up way more.

Hoa fees increase but less than maintenance, repairs, utilities, insurance of a single family home.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I wonder how much of this has to do with the end of work from home and people now having to commute back into the city? Because in upper NWDC homes in the $1.5M range continue to move fast, if they even make it to market. I suspect housing outside the beltway may dip but inside will hold or could even tick up.

Plenty of houses in Kensington are moving fast too.

We aren't seeing the trend you are describing yet. In Montgomery County, prices are up and inventory is down compared with the same time last year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm worried. There's a new-ish condo near me (in DC) that is listed for $15k less than the owners paid in 2018. Here's the sales history:
2018 - Sold for 730
2022 - Sold for 789
2025 - Listed at 730, dropped to 715 and sitting.

Condos are a horrible investment even in the best of times and really not indicative of the SFH market. The condo I sold in 2004 in upper NW resold for almost the same price in 2020. Almost zero appreciation, but huge increase in the monthly HOA.

The advantage is
Having a home you can't get kicked out of
Having nothing to take care of
Part of your payment going to principle

The appreciation is less than single family but they have annual taxes that go up way more.

Hoa fees increase but less than maintenance, repairs, utilities, insurance of a single family home.

+1 a condo that doesn't appreciate can easily be better financially than a money pit SFH. Really depends on the individual situation. Also, you can't always rent an equivalent. My friend has a condo she overpaid for and is worth less than what she paid 5 years ago, but it is so much nicer than what she was renting before. She loves living there. She's had the experience of renting in a building that converted to condos. Owning her condo means she can't get kicked out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well, ultimately everything comes down to price vs local income and interest rates. Can Rockville support very middling houses priced at $1 million plus when the median income is $64,000 and average mortgage interest rates are 7 percent? No, of course not. Home prices are so far beyond the historical norm that eventually it's going to correct hard.

Overpricing correction. Imagine paying some of these high amounts to live in SS or Rockville.

This person is seriously out of touch. $1M in Rockville gets you a lot more than in Bethesda: an older but nice house on a large lot, great schools and neighborhoods that are not turning into endless McMansions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well, ultimately everything comes down to price vs local income and interest rates. Can Rockville support very middling houses priced at $1 million plus when the median income is $64,000 and average mortgage interest rates are 7 percent? No, of course not. Home prices are so far beyond the historical norm that eventually it's going to correct hard.

Overpricing correction. Imagine paying some of these high amounts to live in SS or Rockville.

This person is seriously out of touch. $1M in Rockville gets you a lot more than in Bethesda: an older but nice house on a large lot, great schools and neighborhoods that are not turning into endless McMansions.

There are a lot of DCUM posters that have never stepped foot north or east of Bethesda and Chevy Chase but somehow feel compelled to share their detailed expertise of Rockville/Silver Spring/etc. real estate markets.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm worried. There's a new-ish condo near me (in DC) that is listed for $15k less than the owners paid in 2018. Here's the sales history:
2018 - Sold for 730
2022 - Sold for 789
2025 - Listed at 730, dropped to 715 and sitting.

Condos are a horrible investment even in the best of times and really not indicative of the SFH market. The condo I sold in 2004 in upper NW resold for almost the same price in 2020. Almost zero appreciation, but huge increase in the monthly HOA.

The advantage is
Having a home you can't get kicked out of
Having nothing to take care of
Part of your payment going to principle

The appreciation is less than single family but they have annual taxes that go up way more.

Hoa fees increase but less than maintenance, repairs, utilities, insurance of a single family home.

+1 a condo that doesn't appreciate can easily be better financially than a money pit SFH. Really depends on the individual situation. Also, you can't always rent an equivalent. My friend has a condo she overpaid for and is worth less than what she paid 5 years ago, but it is so much nicer than what she was renting before. She loves living there. She's had the experience of renting in a building that converted to condos. Owning her condo means she can't get kicked out.

I am trying to understand the logic here.

Are not the interior costs of a condo the same as for a SFH...or is the thinking that a condo's interior stands up better over time vs. a SFH? If stuff breaks in your condo, don't you have to go out and find a replacement and fix it? Also, what happens if your pipes break and flood the condos below...are you responsible for that (serious question)?

Don't condos also get hit with CapEx fees fairly often to pay for common area upgrades?

Certainly, all the Florida condo owners really wish they hadn't purchased a condo...at least one that is subject to all the upgrades and charges after the building collapse.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm worried. There's a new-ish condo near me (in DC) that is listed for $15k less than the owners paid in 2018. Here's the sales history:
2018 - Sold for 730
2022 - Sold for 789
2025 - Listed at 730, dropped to 715 and sitting.

Condos are a horrible investment even in the best of times and really not indicative of the SFH market. The condo I sold in 2004 in upper NW resold for almost the same price in 2020. Almost zero appreciation, but huge increase in the monthly HOA.

The advantage is
Having a home you can't get kicked out of
Having nothing to take care of
Part of your payment going to principle

The appreciation is less than single family but they have annual taxes that go up way more.

Hoa fees increase but less than maintenance, repairs, utilities, insurance of a single family home.

+1 a condo that doesn't appreciate can easily be better financially than a money pit SFH. Really depends on the individual situation. Also, you can't always rent an equivalent. My friend has a condo she overpaid for and is worth less than what she paid 5 years ago, but it is so much nicer than what she was renting before. She loves living there. She's had the experience of renting in a building that converted to condos. Owning her condo means she can't get kicked out.

I am trying to understand the logic here.

Are not the interior costs of a condo the same as for a SFH...or is the thinking that a condo's interior stands up better over time vs. a SFH? If stuff breaks in your condo, don't you have to go out and find a replacement and fix it? Also, what happens if your pipes break and flood the condos below...are you responsible for that (serious question)?

Don't condos also get hit with CapEx fees fairly often to pay for common area upgrades?

Certainly, all the Florida condo owners really wish they hadn't purchased a condo...at least one that is subject to all the upgrades and charges after the building collapse.

As I said, really depends on the individual situation. With an SFH you are paying for the house and the land. With the same budget you can get a condo in better condition than the SFH. And since the structure is shared, it's entirely possible your maintenance costs are substantially lower, especially you are comparing to a 70+ year old SFH.

Of course, there are risks with condos, and it's really important to do your due diligence as with any property. There are condo buildings in good condition without huge amounts of deferred maintenance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm worried. There's a new-ish condo near me (in DC) that is listed for $15k less than the owners paid in 2018. Here's the sales history:
2018 - Sold for 730
2022 - Sold for 789
2025 - Listed at 730, dropped to 715 and sitting.

Condos are a horrible investment even in the best of times and really not indicative of the SFH market. The condo I sold in 2004 in upper NW resold for almost the same price in 2020. Almost zero appreciation, but huge increase in the monthly HOA.

The advantage is
Having a home you can't get kicked out of
Having nothing to take care of
Part of your payment going to principle

The appreciation is less than single family but they have annual taxes that go up way more.

Hoa fees increase but less than maintenance, repairs, utilities, insurance of a single family home.

+1 a condo that doesn't appreciate can easily be better financially than a money pit SFH. Really depends on the individual situation. Also, you can't always rent an equivalent. My friend has a condo she overpaid for and is worth less than what she paid 5 years ago, but it is so much nicer than what she was renting before. She loves living there. She's had the experience of renting in a building that converted to condos. Owning her condo means she can't get kicked out.

Not really. Just one new condo building can add 200 new units to just one neighborhood the DC. But there’s not enough land in the entire city to add 200 new single family homes. That’s why there are multi million $ tear downs in NWDC. The land is the valuable part.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm worried. There's a new-ish condo near me (in DC) that is listed for $15k less than the owners paid in 2018. Here's the sales history:
2018 - Sold for 730
2022 - Sold for 789
2025 - Listed at 730, dropped to 715 and sitting.

Condos are a horrible investment even in the best of times and really not indicative of the SFH market. The condo I sold in 2004 in upper NW resold for almost the same price in 2020. Almost zero appreciation, but huge increase in the monthly HOA.

The advantage is
Having a home you can't get kicked out of
Having nothing to take care of
Part of your payment going to principle

The appreciation is less than single family but they have annual taxes that go up way more.

Hoa fees increase but less than maintenance, repairs, utilities, insurance of a single family home.

+1 a condo that doesn't appreciate can easily be better financially than a money pit SFH. Really depends on the individual situation. Also, you can't always rent an equivalent. My friend has a condo she overpaid for and is worth less than what she paid 5 years ago, but it is so much nicer than what she was renting before. She loves living there. She's had the experience of renting in a building that converted to condos. Owning her condo means she can't get kicked out.

Not really. Just one new condo building can add 200 new units to just one neighborhood the DC. But there’s not enough land in the entire city to add 200 new single family homes. That’s why there are multi million $ tear downs in NWDC. The land is the valuable part.

Whoosh