The DOGE Downturn - Kensington

[Anonymous]

At some point only so many people can afford million dollar houses and the prices aren't sustainable.

[Anonymous]

In Montgomery County prices may reflect concerns about turning SFH into apartment buildings.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:In Montgomery County prices may reflect concerns about turning SFH into apartment buildings.

I doubt that's why prices are going up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let’s call it what it is, the trumpeter recession. Doge was just a way to shift blame. We know who is behind this.

+1 DOGE hasn’t done as much as you think.

Yes it has. My neighborhood is full of fired Feds from Dept of Ed, EPA, FDA, NIH, and USAID. Some have spouses who aren’t Feds who can keep them afloat but it’s not that easy for niche experts to get a new job, particularly in the scientific research space where the cuts have been brutal.

Same in my neighborhood but a lot of contractors have lost their jobs as well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

+1 DOGE hasn’t done as much as you think.

You have to be kidding

https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2025/05/07/home-inventory-spike-doge-layoffs

The court temporarily paused Trump's sweeping government overhaul/RIFs for two weeks:
https://www.npr.org/2025/05/09/nx-s1-5393777/trump-rifs-court-mass-layoff-doge

IMO, most of the damage has already been done

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let’s call it what it is, the trumpeter recession. Doge was just a way to shift blame. We know who is behind this.

+1 DOGE hasn’t done as much as you think.

Agreed. When all is said and done, I actually wonder how much the federal workforce will have shrunk. My guess is 5%. Certainly that won’t be even across all agencies but I think it’s been lots of headlines for very little in the way of results.

Are you freaking kidding? You obviously don't know enough people. It will be significantly more than 5% - likely already is well beyond that plus the 1 fed = 3 contractors figure. Then add on to this the vacuuming of federal funds for all sectors via cancelled contracts, grants etc. This impacts will be massive just not immediate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let’s call it what it is, the trumpeter recession. Doge was just a way to shift blame. We know who is behind this.

+1 DOGE hasn’t done as much as you think.

+3 I agree too!

Chorus of the ignorant.

What percentage of fed employees have been Rifd?

Follow the news, dum-dum.

How about providing a number, dum dum.

There are 160K federal jobs in MD. That doesn’t count Maryland feds who work in DC or VA.

30% were fired.

That 48,000 people.

I personally know about 60.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The only relevant data are sales of homes that are actually selling below their last sales price…not what homes would theoretically be worth last year.

This area as a whole is still selling for slightly higher prices than last year.

Go look at Florida and Texas for actual price drops…inventory there is much higher than pre COVID and they are seeing 10%+ price drops in many markets.

I agree with this.

We were looking at Kensington a few years ago for a possible move but prices were increasing too fast and we got priced out. And we're still priced out.

If the first house on OP's list sells for current asking, that will be a 41% profit over what the current owners paid in 2013. Could they have made a 50% profit if they sold in 2023 or 2024? Very likely, Kensington has been a hot market. Is the fact that this house may have decreased in value 9% in the last 2 years evidence of a housing collapse, when it's still massively appreciated since the owners bought it just over a decade ago?

No. Chill out.

Call me when you can buy a 3 bedroom house in the DC area for less than 500k again. You're fine.

[Anonymous]

Well, ultimately everything comes down to price vs local income and interest rates. Can Rockville support very middling houses priced at $1 million plus when the median income is $64,000 and average mortgage interest rates are 7 percent? No, of course not. Home prices are so far beyond the historical norm that eventually it's going to correct hard.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let’s call it what it is, the trumpeter recession. Doge was just a way to shift blame. We know who is behind this.

+1 DOGE hasn’t done as much as you think.

+3 I agree too!

Chorus of the ignorant.

What percentage of fed employees have been Rifd?

Follow the news, dum-dum.

How about providing a number, dum dum.

There are 160K federal jobs in MD. That doesn’t count Maryland feds who work in DC or VA.

30% were fired.

That 48,000 people.

I personally know about 60.

Add to this the uncertainty in the face of, say, the proposed 40% budget cut for NIH and increase in retirement contributions for Feds, plenty of people are either leaving the area, trying to sell asap, even if at loss while on the other hand, local people are staying put, and despite RTO, fewer people moving into the area. Ie higher inventory, less demand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let’s call it what it is, the trumpeter recession. Doge was just a way to shift blame. We know who is behind this.

+1 DOGE hasn’t done as much as you think.

+3 I agree too!

Chorus of the ignorant.

What percentage of fed employees have been Rifd?

Follow the news, dum-dum.

How about providing a number, dum dum.

There are 160K federal jobs in MD. That doesn’t count Maryland feds who work in DC or VA.

30% were fired.

That 48,000 people.

I personally know about 60.

Is this just HHS? Lots of agencies have barely been affected. I know Marylanders who work at DOJ, defense, and DHS, and none have been RIFed. The impacts have been very uneven across agencies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let’s call it what it is, the trumpeter recession. Doge was just a way to shift blame. We know who is behind this.

+1 DOGE hasn’t done as much as you think.

+3 I agree too!

Chorus of the ignorant.

What percentage of fed employees have been Rifd?

Follow the news, dum-dum.

How about providing a number, dum dum.

There are 160K federal jobs in MD. That doesn’t count Maryland feds who work in DC or VA.

30% were fired.

That 48,000 people.

I personally know about 60.

Is this just HHS? Lots of agencies have barely been affected. I know Marylanders who work at DOJ, defense, and DHS, and none have been RIFed. The impacts have been very uneven across agencies.

You are right. The previous poster must be an idiot. 30% of the fed work force fired? Lol. Ridiculous.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm not sure how one can make a blanket statement about an area by cherry-picking three of the dingiest-looking houses they could find.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The only relevant data are sales of homes that are actually selling below their last sales price…not what homes would theoretically be worth last year.

This area as a whole is still selling for slightly higher prices than last year.

Go look at Florida and Texas for actual price drops…inventory there is much higher than pre COVID and they are seeing 10%+ price drops in many markets.

I agree with this.

We were looking at Kensington a few years ago for a possible move but prices were increasing too fast and we got priced out. And we're still priced out.

If the first house on OP's list sells for current asking, that will be a 41% profit over what the current owners paid in 2013. Could they have made a 50% profit if they sold in 2023 or 2024? Very likely, Kensington has been a hot market. Is the fact that this house may have decreased in value 9% in the last 2 years evidence of a housing collapse, when it's still massively appreciated since the owners bought it just over a decade ago?

No. Chill out.

Call me when you can buy a 3 bedroom house in the DC area for less than 500k again. You're fine.

I think within reason...if a home purchased in 2021-2024 sells for less in 2025, then there is a downturn.

However, it's nonsense to claim a house listed for $750k would have sold for $900k the previous year. Who knows the story with that house and why it is listed for what it is listed.

[Anonymous]

I'm worried. There's a new-ish condo near me (in DC) that is listed for $15k less than the owners paid in 2018. Here's the sales history:
2018 - Sold for 730
2022 - Sold for 789
2025 - Listed at 730, dropped to 715 and sitting.