Lottery/school despair

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What about Bruce Monroe if you’re okay with staying Spanish in first grade? We do activities with a few kids from there and the kids and families seem great and happy there. Close to NE for your commute.

My friends at Bruce Monroe all left between k and 1st grade, I doubt that this will solve OP’s problem.

The kids we know are in 1st - 4th, so I think there’s a contingent that stay. I assume it’s the same attrition that happens at all of the schools that don’t have a great middle school feeder.

+1. If your criteria is "Didn't retain 100% of the people I personally know", then you're not going to like any school at all.

The report card includes re enrollment data, perhaps OP can look at it and decide if it works for her.

https://osse.dc.gov/dcschoolreportcard/schoolsnapshot

[Anonymous]

We just kept playing the lottery. Took 6 years but we eventually got into a school we like. Then we hit the middle school lottery so now we’re good through high school.

Keep rolling the dice. Or move. Either will probably work out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Disclaimer, my kids are still little (PK) but I'm a data nerd and have done a lot of digging on this. A few things:

1) The best way to get into a school you want is to be willing to move in September/October. If you dig through the Tableau dashboard (https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay) you'll find that for a ton of schools, it's your absolute best chance to get in. Just for example - ITS 1st grade. They let in a single digit number of kids each year. The last three years they've let in 26-60 kids from the waitlist, the majority of which have been between August and October.

2) Things do get a lot easier in K/1/2. Things really start to loosen up. Try not to bring the PK3/4 emotional baggage, that's a different beast.

3) I think you need to play out your worst case scenario here. The cause of your despair is feeling trapped. So, go through your list of all the elementary schools you'd be happy with for your kid. Then, look at the Tableau dashboard and see if any of them are generally clearing their waitlists by October for 1st or 2nd grade.

If there is no school on your list that basically clears it's waitlist pretty much every year for 1st or 2nd (or 3rd if you're willing to wait that long), then you need to keep looking at more schools until you find a school that's acceptable to you that does. That's your safety school. Then, you decide when you're willing to settle for it. Maybe it's this year, maybe it's next year, maybe it's for 3rd. But if you have in the back of your mind "well, if none of this works out, then next year we'll put Burroughs at the bottom of our list, and if worst comes to worst, that's where we'll end up." Once you've gamed out the worst case scenario and accepted it as manageable, then you won't feel so trapped. But if you keep putting all your eggs in the "one of these schools that takes half the waitlist will surely work out" then you're going to feel panicky. If you post your full list of acceptable schools, I'm happy to do the research for you.

And related:

4) If there isn't a true safety school that will work for you, start planning for a move now. If that's the case, I agree with other posters that you'll wish you did so earlier.

A+ advice, 10/10, no notes.

Agree! This post is pinworthy if DCUM had something like that. Thank you PK mom datanerd!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Crap lottery number. Unhappy at current school. Trying the "short waitlists" but those lists aren't moving either and the distances are daunting.

I just feel like crap. Worse, every time I talk to ANYONE else in the DC public school system, it feels like they are announcing that they just moved IB for Murch or got a much coveted spot at SWS that they TURNED DOWN to stay at LAMB or some such nonsense.

Anyone have good stories of being shut out of the lottery in PK-early elementary and it all working out okay in the end? Would be great if these stories did not involve buying a home for more than 600k somewhere because that is not in the cards. I just need to feel less miserable.

We struck out 4 years in a row and gave up and moved to Bowie, MD. House cost less than $400 then, worth less than $500 now. We did public elementary, and are now doing private for MS/HS.

PG County is worse.

[Anonymous]

OP, if it makes you feel better (or maybe this will make you feel worse), we kicked the tires of MoCo, PG, and Arlington/Alexandria and were kind of underwhelmed with the options that we could afford. Nothing seemed really that much better than Seaton/ITS middle. We will re-evaluate for high school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP, if it makes you feel better (or maybe this will make you feel worse), we kicked the tires of MoCo, PG, and Arlington/Alexandria and were kind of underwhelmed with the options that we could afford. Nothing seemed really that much better than Seaton/ITS middle. We will re-evaluate for high school.

To be fair, Seaton is objectively good and would be anywhere.

I used to study schools professionally and for my money Howard County, Md. is the best overall bang for your housing buck in the DMV, though obviously there are great and not-so-great schools in every district. Rigorous, diverse, lots of wonderful options. But obviously, not a doable daily commute to DC so off our list.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Crap lottery number. Unhappy at current school. Trying the "short waitlists" but those lists aren't moving either and the distances are daunting.

I just feel like crap. Worse, every time I talk to ANYONE else in the DC public school system, it feels like they are announcing that they just moved IB for Murch or got a much coveted spot at SWS that they TURNED DOWN to stay at LAMB or some such nonsense.

Anyone have good stories of being shut out of the lottery in PK-early elementary and it all working out okay in the end? Would be great if these stories did not involve buying a home for more than 600k somewhere because that is not in the cards. I just need to feel less miserable.

We struck out 4 years in a row and gave up and moved to Bowie, MD. House cost less than $400 then, worth less than $500 now. We did public elementary, and are now doing private for MS/HS.

No judgment, but why move at all then? ES options in DC are pretty good. MS and HS is where you need luck. If you were prepared to spend money on private, what's the point in having to live in Bowie?

Again, no judgment. Just trying to understand the thought process.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:"If you try long enough"

Meanwhile your kid is somewhere crappy and/or moving around a lot.

I posted upthread. We tried two schools in 4 years, losing lottery (by miles) each time. Pulled her out in 4th grade. Wish I had done it sooner, but I kept thinking "surely a good option will come up" and it never did.

OP here. Can you tell me where you wound up going? Moving out of DC? Private?

This is the the thing about the "short waitlist" suggestion that I'm wary of. Our current school has a "short waitlist." Of 0! Because it's not a very good school and people keep leaving it. So when people tell me to use a short waitlist, I want more info about that school. I do not want to move my kid so that we can be unhappy somewhere else and then move again anyway. In that case, we might as well stay where we are at and see if we can figure out how to move to a better situation.

+1 The idea that there are schools with short or no waitlists that are anything other than passable is fiction.

[Anonymous]

For ECE maybe. But there are actually lots of perfectly decent elementary schools w short upper grades waitlists.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:For ECE maybe. But there are actually lots of perfectly decent elementary schools w short upper grades waitlists.

You have that totally and completely backwards. By and large, most schools in DC do ECE very well. Where things break down is in the middle and upper grades.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For ECE maybe. But there are actually lots of perfectly decent elementary schools w short upper grades waitlists.

You have that totally and completely backwards. By and large, most schools in DC do ECE very well. Where things break down is in the middle and upper grades.

This. ECE easy. Playing and alphabets. Cracks start forming in K and gets much much larger as you go up.

Schools also have no or short waitlists for a reason. And boosters who say it’s because of no middle school say to justify it when it’s more academic and behavior issues.

You are not happy at your school for a reason OP. And that reason is not unique and likely issues in some other schools, one of many possible.

[Anonymous]

You are making the mistake of assuming that popularity = quality. The pool of kids looking to lottery and change schools starts to shrink after K. There start to be spaces in many of the Hill area elementary schools (for example) in mid-elementary grades. There are some reasonably good DCPS elementary schools that do not necessarily get much attention OOB.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You are making the mistake of assuming that popularity = quality. The pool of kids looking to lottery and change schools starts to shrink after K. There start to be spaces in many of the Hill area elementary schools (for example) in mid-elementary grades. There are some reasonably good DCPS elementary schools that do not necessarily get much attention OOB.

No, you don’t understand school differences. There is a huge difference between Capitol Hill DCPS elementary schools and most other DCPS elementary schools EOTP. That difference, which is the most important, is academic performance. CH schools overwhelmingly at and above grade level, 60-89%. Non CH around 30% so overwhelmingly below grade level.

School in CH start losing kids after 4th because of the middle school feed due to Latin and Basis. Retention of families in K-3rd is high. Non CH schools EOTP, in contrast, start losing kids much earlier like K-1st. By 2nd, it’s stark. It’s not due to the middle school feed. It’s because families are not happy like OP and they are looking for a better school and trying to trade up.

There might be an exception in 1 or 2 grade where the CH schools may have space to take a few OOB kids but not common at all. You never see CH schools on short waitlist. Where other many non CH schools you can pretty much get in any grade 1st and up and on the short waitlist almost every year.

And no I’m not in CH. I’m in the other group.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You are making the mistake of assuming that popularity = quality. The pool of kids looking to lottery and change schools starts to shrink after K. There start to be spaces in many of the Hill area elementary schools (for example) in mid-elementary grades. There are some reasonably good DCPS elementary schools that do not necessarily get much attention OOB.

No, you don’t understand school differences. There is a huge difference between Capitol Hill DCPS elementary schools and most other DCPS elementary schools EOTP. That difference, which is the most important, is academic performance. CH schools overwhelmingly at and above grade level, 60-89%. Non CH around 30% so overwhelmingly below grade level.

School in CH start losing kids after 4th because of the middle school feed due to Latin and Basis. Retention of families in K-3rd is high. Non CH schools EOTP, in contrast, start losing kids much earlier like K-1st. By 2nd, it’s stark. It’s not due to the middle school feed. It’s because families are not happy like OP and they are looking for a better school and trying to trade up.

There might be an exception in 1 or 2 grade where the CH schools may have space to take a few OOB kids but not common at all. You never see CH schools on short waitlist. Where other many non CH schools you can pretty much get in any grade 1st and up and on the short waitlist almost every year.

And no I’m not in CH. I’m in the other group.

You are massively overstating this. Just this year already, Brent offered 18 spots in the K lottery and has already made 22 offers for K on top of that. Last year Brent made 34 offers for 2nd grade. Ludlow-Taylor offered 4 seats for 1st and also made 4 offers, 7 seats for 2nd and also made 4 offers, 12 seats for 3rd and already made 2 offers, etc. Multiple offers in all grades last year as well. Maury is harder to get into, but last year they made 15 offers for K and 7 for 1st. Now, this isn't to say that any one particular kid will definitely get a spot at a particular school, but if you keep trying at multiple schools, chances are it'll work out. You're being ridiculous when you say "a few OOB kids" and "not common at all". Try checking the data before you assert yourself. This site is supposed to be helpful, not mislead people.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You are making the mistake of assuming that popularity = quality. The pool of kids looking to lottery and change schools starts to shrink after K. There start to be spaces in many of the Hill area elementary schools (for example) in mid-elementary grades. There are some reasonably good DCPS elementary schools that do not necessarily get much attention OOB.

No, you don’t understand school differences. There is a huge difference between Capitol Hill DCPS elementary schools and most other DCPS elementary schools EOTP. That difference, which is the most important, is academic performance. CH schools overwhelmingly at and above grade level, 60-89%. Non CH around 30% so overwhelmingly below grade level.

School in CH start losing kids after 4th because of the middle school feed due to Latin and Basis. Retention of families in K-3rd is high. Non CH schools EOTP, in contrast, start losing kids much earlier like K-1st. By 2nd, it’s stark. It’s not due to the middle school feed. It’s because families are not happy like OP and they are looking for a better school and trying to trade up.

There might be an exception in 1 or 2 grade where the CH schools may have space to take a few OOB kids but not common at all. You never see CH schools on short waitlist. Where other many non CH schools you can pretty much get in any grade 1st and up and on the short waitlist almost every year.

And no I’m not in CH. I’m in the other group.

You are massively overstating this. Just this year already, Brent offered 18 spots in the K lottery and has already made 22 offers for K on top of that. Last year Brent made 34 offers for 2nd grade. Ludlow-Taylor offered 4 seats for 1st and also made 4 offers, 7 seats for 2nd and also made 4 offers, 12 seats for 3rd and already made 2 offers, etc. Multiple offers in all grades last year as well. Maury is harder to get into, but last year they made 15 offers for K and 7 for 1st. Now, this isn't to say that any one particular kid will definitely get a spot at a particular school, but if you keep trying at multiple schools, chances are it'll work out. You're being ridiculous when you say "a few OOB kids" and "not common at all". Try checking the data before you assert yourself. This site is supposed to be helpful, not mislead people.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

OP here. None of those schools— Brent, Maury, L-T— have short waitlists. I know because I’m on them. You still have to lick into spots there.

The schools on the Hill with short waitlists are fairly similar to our current school— fine for ECE but issues after that. I’m not interested in trading one such school for another, there is no point.