Unpredictability of admission decisions

[Anonymous]

My kid got rejected from 13 schools, including 4 targets. In at one target and two safeties. Would have thought they’d at least get waitlisted at some of the targets.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My kid got rejected from 13 schools, including 4 targets. In at one target and two safeties. Would have thought they’d at least get waitlisted at some of the targets.

Does your DC have high financial need (more than half of total cost)?

[Anonymous]

Test-optional policies increased uncertainty in college admissions. Period.

There was always a good deal of uncertainty for highly-selective schools. What is more difficult to accept is the uncertainty at schools less selective than those. The yield protection (yes, there has always been yield protection; there's more now).

Published score ranges helped kids decide where to apply and how to categorize the schools on their list into reaches, matches, and safeties.

Colleges use algorithms to predict who will attend. The algorithms always included score. Test optional policies were, and still are, a big problem for the algorithms. Test optional applicants are more likely to yield. The algorithms have struggled to accurately predict who might attend. Instead of simply admitting 5 or 10 or however many high-scoring applicants needed to get one to enroll, the student gets denied.

Enrollment managers need to take a closer look at their own work, which leaves a lot to be desired.

[Anonymous]

My kids was accepted at all schools applied.

Georgetown
Univ Florida
Univ of Miami
UVA
VA Tech
JMU
Penn State

[Anonymous]

It depends on how you define reach, target, safety. My kid did not cure cancer but was at or above top 25% in stats for almost every college (4.0 in rigorous classes, 1590 SAT, varsity sport captain, lots of volunteering, IMO strong essays, etc). Private college counselor considered colleges like Hamilton, Colby, Middlebury, BU, W&M OOS, etc “reaches.” Private counselor considered colleges like Emory, Wash U, Tufts “high reaches.” Counselor considered colleges like ivies, Duke, a lottery ticket’s chance. So yes DC got into all of their “reaches,” but to me it was ludicrous to consider Colby a reach for my kid, I’d have called it a “target/match” (I think Colby is great, it is not a knock on Colby). I’d say my DC got into the safeties, target/matches and 2 moderate reaches, but no ivies.

[Anonymous]

Kid applied to mostly reach schools, and no surprise, didn't get in. They only really wanted to go to two of those expensive elite schools, and if they couldn't get in there, then they would go to the instate flagship. So, that's where they are going. We're a donut whole family , so we weren't going to get any financial aid, and $380K sticker price was just a bit too much for me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pretty predictable for my kid this year.

Big 3. 3.8+ unweighted. Just under 1500 SAT

I looked at CDS data and used adjusted acceptance rate for kid gender (male usually slightly higher acceptance rate but not always) and for one of the OOS flagships, used acceptance rate they publish for kids with less than 5 AP because our school dropped AP courses and honors don’t count.

Accepted at
54%
48%
34% will likely attend
30% state flagship OOS < 5 AP

WL at
44% seemed like a yield protect to me
20.8% state flagship OOS < 5AP
17.3%
14.2%
12% legacy

Rejected at
26%
11.5%
4.8% state flagship OOS no AP rate
4.3% state flagship OOS no AP rate
4.2%
4% legacy
2.9% state flagship OOS no AP rate

I haven’t yet put kid GPA into the Harvard-westlake data but I’m guessing would be also similar.

I wish I had done more of this when list was being formed.

Our school doesn’t give scattergrams to kids or parents and generally shuns data driven list formation. They make it all about kid “feels”

I would have had kid do more in the 30-60 percent weighted accordance range for kid gender based on CDS

What does put kid GPA into Harvard westlake data mean?

Harvard Westlake is a Big 3 in LA. They publish a data set PDF each year that shows for unhooked kids acceptance rate to each college by unweighted GPA.

It’s posted on DCUM if you search. It’s rolling 3 year look back at data. And a good way to GPA sort. For instance HYP accepted zero unhooked HW kids with gpa less than 3.8 last 3 cycles. Pretty good indicator.

Pretty good indicator.... for HW students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do you think the process is more predictable if you adjust or partition the individual students by race or ethnicity and SES / suburban factors? Ie Asian suburban umc kid need sat>x and APs>y for admission probability of >75% to T30-T50 school?

Such BS. The alleged discrimination is so theoretical. You would need to factor in intended major, etc,

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It depends on how you define reach, target, safety. My kid did not cure cancer but was at or above top 25% in stats for almost every college (4.0 in rigorous classes, 1590 SAT, varsity sport captain, lots of volunteering, IMO strong essays, etc). Private college counselor considered colleges like Hamilton, Colby, Middlebury, BU, W&M OOS, etc “reaches.” Private counselor considered colleges like Emory, Wash U, Tufts “high reaches.” Counselor considered colleges like ivies, Duke, a lottery ticket’s chance. So yes DC got into all of their “reaches,” but to me it was ludicrous to consider Colby a reach for my kid, I’d have called it a “target/match” (I think Colby is great, it is not a knock on Colby). I’d say my DC got into the safeties, target/matches and 2 moderate reaches, but no ivies.

The issue is there are so few slots at the liberal arts colleges after Early Decision. So it’s just a big numbers problem. There are so many kids with very high stats and Colby also wants kids from under represented groups or other institutional priorities.

Congrats to your kid - maybe they really are very special. But for most high stats kids, the numbers and odds are poor for refusal decision.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It depends on how you define reach, target, safety. My kid did not cure cancer but was at or above top 25% in stats for almost every college (4.0 in rigorous classes, 1590 SAT, varsity sport captain, lots of volunteering, IMO strong essays, etc). Private college counselor considered colleges like Hamilton, Colby, Middlebury, BU, W&M OOS, etc “reaches.” Private counselor considered colleges like Emory, Wash U, Tufts “high reaches.” Counselor considered colleges like ivies, Duke, a lottery ticket’s chance. So yes DC got into all of their “reaches,” but to me it was ludicrous to consider Colby a reach for my kid, I’d have called it a “target/match” (I think Colby is great, it is not a knock on Colby). I’d say my DC got into the safeties, target/matches and 2 moderate reaches, but no ivies.

Did your DC get into Colby?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It depends on how you define reach, target, safety. My kid did not cure cancer but was at or above top 25% in stats for almost every college (4.0 in rigorous classes, 1590 SAT, varsity sport captain, lots of volunteering, IMO strong essays, etc). Private college counselor considered colleges like Hamilton, Colby, Middlebury, BU, W&M OOS, etc “reaches.” Private counselor considered colleges like Emory, Wash U, Tufts “high reaches.” Counselor considered colleges like ivies, Duke, a lottery ticket’s chance. So yes DC got into all of their “reaches,” but to me it was ludicrous to consider Colby a reach for my kid, I’d have called it a “target/match” (I think Colby is great, it is not a knock on Colby). I’d say my DC got into the safeties, target/matches and 2 moderate reaches, but no ivies.

The Colby of your era is not the Colby of your kid's era. Know 2 HYP alums - married couple - who were distraught when they finally accepted that their DD was not material for their alma mater. Their kid was lucky to get off WL @ Colby. The kid was a perfectly fine student, though not exceptional. Even Colby can hold out for those folks these days.

Privilege can really blind folks. Successful, organized professionals who just assumed that legacy would confer unto their DD, even when college admissions was blowing up all around them.

[Anonymous]

My kid got into their ED1 school so in the end only applied to 3 schools- 2 safeties (one rolling, one EA) and then the ED1 whuch had a less than 20% acceptance rate this year. They had above the average for overall SAT but their math was below the 50th (very high EBRW). They were not an athlete or a crazy standout for anything. Very involved in schools theater program (not majoring in theater), part time job, some volunteering, and other club involvement at school.
We had a plan for ED2 if ED1 didn’t work out, and then more RD apps including in state options. I’m relieved that it worked out!

With acceptance rates dropping at many top schools, even a school where your child falls in the upper area doesn’t mean it’s a safety if the acceptance rate is lower.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Something I was surprised about was that the College office defined a target as a “50/50 school.” Basically a coin flip. Before talking to them, I thought a target to be more like a match or a likely. A target is school where a kid has a 50% chance of acceptance - certainly not a sure bet.

Target does not have a set definition--unless a particular high school defines the term for all students.

To me, a target school is a first choice school for which the applicant's numbers and qualifications are at least at or near the median.

This is why I don’t get why the acceptance percentage matters at non top 30 schools. that percentage gives you no data as to what the stats were of all those rejected.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My kid got into their ED1 school so in the end only applied to 3 schools- 2 safeties (one rolling, one EA) and then the ED1 whuch had a less than 20% acceptance rate this year. They had above the average for overall SAT but their math was below the 50th (very high EBRW). They were not an athlete or a crazy standout for anything. Very involved in schools theater program (not majoring in theater), part time job, some volunteering, and other club involvement at school.
We had a plan for ED2 if ED1 didn’t work out, and then more RD apps including in state options. I’m relieved that it worked out!

With acceptance rates dropping at many top schools, even a school where your child falls in the upper area doesn’t mean it’s a safety if the acceptance rate is lower.

Do you mind sharing the school?