Unpredictability of admission decisions

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unpredictable here too: accepted at all safetys, including UMD, accepted at 1 target (rejected from 1, deferred and eventually rejected from 1), WL at HYP (declined to remain on WL)

I'm not sure what's so unpredictable about this. It would have been surprising to be rejected at safeties or accepted at HYP (since that's such a lottery). Targets aren't guaranteed, so 1 of 3 is pretty expected.

+1
All of the above is completely predictable. Weird response.

[Anonymous]

The pending Supreme Court affirmative action case could have big consequences. It’ll be 5-4 either way.

[Anonymous]

The Big Squeeze: How the U of California Uses Quotas When They Are Banned by Law from Using Quotas

https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-big-squeeze-how-the-u-of-california-uses-quotas-when-they-are-banned-by-law-from-using-quotas/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My DD had pretty unpredictable results this year. Rejected or waitlisted from top 10 schools, 3 acceptances from top 25 schools, 1 acceptance 5 waitlist from her target schools, basically schools between 25-50 range, accepted to all 3 of her likely schools. She was surprised by being waitlisted from so many target schools. But she is happy with the results.

The schools are hiring data analysts to find out whom to reject. They probably figured your kid wouldn’t attend.

[Anonymous]

Rejected at school with 60% admission rate and accepted at school with 39% admission rate.

Other rejections and acceptances were not surprising.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Rejected at school with 60% admission rate and accepted at school with 39% admission rate.

Other rejections and acceptances were not surprising.

I meant to type accepted at school with 30% admission rate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Rejected at school with 60% admission rate and accepted at school with 39% admission rate.

Other rejections and acceptances were not surprising.

I meant to type accepted at school with 30% admission rate.

The 60% is likely yield protection. They think your kid will have better choices, so if you don't demonstrate good interest, they WL or reject you

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Rejected at school with 60% admission rate and accepted at school with 39% admission rate.

Other rejections and acceptances were not surprising.

Your kid had to persuade the safety that they really wanted to attend - ie, customize the essay. "Yield protection" always comes down to this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My DD had pretty unpredictable results this year. Rejected or waitlisted from top 10 schools, 3 acceptances from top 25 schools, 1 acceptance 5 waitlist from her target schools, basically schools between 25-50 range, accepted to all 3 of her likely schools. She was surprised by being waitlisted from so many target schools. But she is happy with the results.

This sounds the opposite of unpredictable. What was surprising about these results?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My DD had pretty unpredictable results this year. Rejected or waitlisted from top 10 schools, 3 acceptances from top 25 schools, 1 acceptance 5 waitlist from her target schools, basically schools between 25-50 range, accepted to all 3 of her likely schools. She was surprised by being waitlisted from so many target schools. But she is happy with the results.

How is that unpredictable? Didn't get into the reaches, batted 50% at targets (4/8) and got into all safeties. Good job!

She got into 3 top 25 schools but not targets.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My DD had pretty unpredictable results this year. Rejected or waitlisted from top 10 schools, 3 acceptances from top 25 schools, 1 acceptance 5 waitlist from her target schools, basically schools between 25-50 range, accepted to all 3 of her likely schools. She was surprised by being waitlisted from so many target schools. But she is happy with the results.

This sounds the opposite of unpredictable. What was surprising about these results?

You aren’t reading carefully

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Rejected at school with 60% admission rate and accepted at school with 39% admission rate.

Other rejections and acceptances were not surprising.

Your kid had to persuade the safety that they really wanted to attend - ie, customize the essay. "Yield protection" always comes down to this.

Except some of these schools don’t have essays

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My DD had pretty unpredictable results this year. Rejected or waitlisted from top 10 schools, 3 acceptances from top 25 schools, 1 acceptance 5 waitlist from her target schools, basically schools between 25-50 range, accepted to all 3 of her likely schools. She was surprised by being waitlisted from so many target schools. But she is happy with the results.

Why is this unpredictable?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Rejected at school with 60% admission rate and accepted at school with 39% admission rate.

Other rejections and acceptances were not surprising.

Your kid had to persuade the safety that they really wanted to attend - ie, customize the essay. "Yield protection" always comes down to this.

Except some of these schools don’t have essays

Then schedule an interview, visit, attend online events and make it multiple of them, contact the AO with questions and show interest. Make them think they are your #1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Pretty predictable for my kid this year.

Big 3. 3.8+ unweighted. Just under 1500 SAT

I looked at CDS data and used adjusted acceptance rate for kid gender (male usually slightly higher acceptance rate but not always) and for one of the OOS flagships, used acceptance rate they publish for kids with less than 5 AP because our school dropped AP courses and honors don’t count.

Accepted at
54%
48%
34% will likely attend
30% state flagship OOS < 5 AP

WL at
44% seemed like a yield protect to me
20.8% state flagship OOS < 5AP
17.3%
14.2%
12% legacy

Rejected at
26%
11.5%
4.8% state flagship OOS no AP rate
4.3% state flagship OOS no AP rate
4.2%
4% legacy
2.9% state flagship OOS no AP rate

I haven’t yet put kid GPA into the Harvard-westlake data but I’m guessing would be also similar.

I wish I had done more of this when list was being formed.

Our school doesn’t give scattergrams to kids or parents and generally shuns data driven list formation. They make it all about kid “feels”

I would have had kid do more in the 30-60 percent weighted accordance range for kid gender based on CDS

What does put kid GPA into Harvard westlake data mean?