Unpredictability of admission decisions

[Anonymous]

My kid's results were mostly predictable too.

In at 3 safeties

In at two targets and WL at another

rejected at 2 reaches.

I mean disappointing not to win a lottery at the reaches, but very predictable and can't really complain.

Kid is still deciding but assuming he will pick one of the targets or his favorite safety.

[Anonymous]

^Maybe I am just ignorant, but what do these rows of percentages mean?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My DD had pretty unpredictable results this year. Rejected or waitlisted from top 10 schools, 3 acceptances from top 25 schools, 1 acceptance 5 waitlist from her target schools, basically schools between 25-50 range, accepted to all 3 of her likely schools. She was surprised by being waitlisted from so many target schools. But she is happy with the results.

Why is this unpredictable?

It’s unpredictable to get into reaches (3 top 25 schools) but not targets.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:^Maybe I am just ignorant, but what do these rows of percentages mean?

Admit percentage overall. (So the reaches at the bottom mean only ~4% of applicants got in).

[Anonymous]

I guess I’m not too surprised overall but still a little disappointed for my kid. Got into all but one “likelies” (5 of them - added three after ED1 rejection spooked DC). Four with merit aid. Only got into one Target (~30% admit rate) so feeling very relieved by that. Rejected at all reaches (including ED) and WL at all other Targets (4). Strong stats and school scattergram implied Targets were “real” targets. Still undecided and will visit target acceptance and maybe 1-2 likelies (haven’t visited them all) before making a call.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I guess I’m not too surprised overall but still a little disappointed for my kid. Got into all but one “likelies” (5 of them - added three after ED1 rejection spooked DC). Four with merit aid. Only got into one Target (~30% admit rate) so feeling very relieved by that. Rejected at all reaches (including ED) and WL at all other Targets (4). Strong stats and school scattergram implied Targets were “real” targets. Still undecided and will visit target acceptance and maybe 1-2 likelies (haven’t visited them all) before making a call.

What do you think he should have done differently?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My DD had pretty unpredictable results this year. Rejected or waitlisted from top 10 schools, 3 acceptances from top 25 schools, 1 acceptance 5 waitlist from her target schools, basically schools between 25-50 range, accepted to all 3 of her likely schools. She was surprised by being waitlisted from so many target schools. But she is happy with the results.

Why is this unpredictable?

It’s unpredictable to get into reaches (3 top 25 schools) but not targets.

Hmm…not how I look at it. I think these scenarios are predictable: rejected for reaches; accepted or waitlisted for targets; accepted for safeties. Seems like this is what happened so outcome was not really unpredictable.

[Anonymous]

Something I was surprised about was that the College office defined a target as a “50/50 school.” Basically a coin flip. Before talking to them, I thought a target to be more like a match or a likely. A target is school where a kid has a 50% chance of acceptance - certainly not a sure bet.

[Anonymous]

In at safeties; WL at one target; rejected at other target and all reaches.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Something I was surprised about was that the College office defined a target as a “50/50 school.” Basically a coin flip. Before talking to them, I thought a target to be more like a match or a likely. A target is school where a kid has a 50% chance of acceptance - certainly not a sure bet.

+1 if you apply to a school within the 30 and 50% range but it is a target for you that doesn’t mean that a person is likely to be accepted. There’s a 40 to 50% chance they will not be accepted. To me target means your stats are within range and you match the typical student at the school.

[Anonymous]

High stats kid. Rejected at reaches.
In at 4/7 targets but I would put that at in at 3/3 of safer targets and in at 1/4 of higher targets - got the honors program for that one so?
In at 3/3 safeties.

They have good options but feeling a little down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Something I was surprised about was that the College office defined a target as a “50/50 school.” Basically a coin flip. Before talking to them, I thought a target to be more like a match or a likely. A target is school where a kid has a 50% chance of acceptance - certainly not a sure bet.

+1 if you apply to a school within the 30 and 50% range but it is a target for you that doesn’t mean that a person is likely to be accepted. There’s a 40 to 50% chance they will not be accepted. To me target means your stats are within range and you match the typical student at the school.

You have to think of target as beyond matching the profile. That is why everyone is upset when they don’t get in. They figure they were just as good as current students, why not me. Important to remember a target is like a coin flip, even if you match or exceed student profile.

[Anonymous]

the scattergrams really don't mean anything anymore. The pre-COVID predictability is simply gone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It feels like a lottery and I say that as a parent whose kid was accepted everywhere.

Congratulations to your student, however, your post makes no sense unless your student was undeserving of the acceptances.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pretty predictable for my kid this year.

Big 3. 3.8+ unweighted. Just under 1500 SAT

I looked at CDS data and used adjusted acceptance rate for kid gender (male usually slightly higher acceptance rate but not always) and for one of the OOS flagships, used acceptance rate they publish for kids with less than 5 AP because our school dropped AP courses and honors don’t count.

Accepted at
54%
48%
34% will likely attend
30% state flagship OOS < 5 AP

WL at
44% seemed like a yield protect to me
20.8% state flagship OOS < 5AP
17.3%
14.2%
12% legacy

Rejected at
26%
11.5%
4.8% state flagship OOS no AP rate
4.3% state flagship OOS no AP rate
4.2%
4% legacy
2.9% state flagship OOS no AP rate

I haven’t yet put kid GPA into the Harvard-westlake data but I’m guessing would be also similar.

I wish I had done more of this when list was being formed.

Our school doesn’t give scattergrams to kids or parents and generally shuns data driven list formation. They make it all about kid “feels”

I would have had kid do more in the 30-60 percent weighted accordance range for kid gender based on CDS

What does put kid GPA into Harvard westlake data mean?

Harvard Westlake is a Big 3 in LA. They publish a data set PDF each year that shows for unhooked kids acceptance rate to each college by unweighted GPA.

It’s posted on DCUM if you search. It’s rolling 3 year look back at data. And a good way to GPA sort. For instance HYP accepted zero unhooked HW kids with gpa less than 3.8 last 3 cycles. Pretty good indicator.