Why do expert say: Buckle in for a brutal free-fall in home prices - Housing Bubble

[Anonymous]

I mean, the experts cited in the article say prices will fall 10-20%. I think prices have definitely softened already from Spring highs, maybe close to 10% already. No one in that article said "brutal free-fall". 10-20% isn't even enough to make up for the higher interest rates, for most buyers

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The key will be whether wages increase enough to make inflation entrenched. These prices can stay high only as long as people have assets or salaries to buy them. Assets are declining. Salaries need to decline or stabilize for prices to go back down.

Assets declining is enough to decrease home values.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Buckle in for a brutal free-fall in home prices and US housing is in a massive bubble, experts say

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/buckle-brutal-free-fall-home-090000513.html

The US housing market is cratering, as the Fed's rapid interest rate hikes send mortgage costs soaring. Home sales have fallen for 8 months, and prices are dropping. But economists say worse is to come.

Y A W N

[Anonymous]

To all the people saying their home has lost value...according to who? Zillow? lol

Stop paying attention to your estimated home value on a monthly basis if you aren't selling in the near future. It will go down, it will go up, who cares. 5, 10, 15 years from now, you'll see nice appreciation.

If a more prolonged recession comes anyways, rates will tank and people with large cash deposits will pounce on the homes. Frankly, a recession could be a net positive if you are on the sidelines with cash.

[Anonymous]

DCUM - eh...Houses always go up! Not in my area! What do interest rates have to do with house prices??

p.s. That's Bullard from the Fed.

[Anonymous]

BULLARD:FIRST 250 BPS OF TIGHTENING WAS JUST GETTING TO NEUTRAL
BULLARD: GOAL IS TO HAVE 2023 AS YEAR FOR US DISINFLATION
BULLARD: SITUATION CALLS FOR MUCH HIGHER INTEREST RATES THAT WHAT WE'VE BEEN USED TO

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

BULLARD:FIRST 250 BPS OF TIGHTENING WAS JUST GETTING TO NEUTRAL
BULLARD: GOAL IS TO HAVE 2023 AS YEAR FOR US DISINFLATION
BULLARD: SITUATION CALLS FOR MUCH HIGHER INTEREST RATES THAT WHAT WE'VE BEEN USED TO

Bullard is the most hawkish of the Fed and does not speak for the Fed as a whole. That said, we've already seen housing prices moderate. I just don't think we'll see much a decline beyond this around here, sadly, as that would be helpful. If folks are waiting to buy until housing prices come down (as opposed to just growing more slowly), I worry that they are going to be eventually priced out.

[Anonymous]

There's definitely areas of the country where housing prices soared (I'm looking at you Wilmington, NC) the last couple of years and the prices are now crazy.

Wilmington is nice, but there's a lot of houses being built, so there's no shortage. The prices are not justified and it's hard to see how they can stay where they are. I could easily see prices there falling 30% or more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

BULLARD:FIRST 250 BPS OF TIGHTENING WAS JUST GETTING TO NEUTRAL
BULLARD: GOAL IS TO HAVE 2023 AS YEAR FOR US DISINFLATION
BULLARD: SITUATION CALLS FOR MUCH HIGHER INTEREST RATES THAT WHAT WE'VE BEEN USED TO

Bullard is the most hawkish of the Fed and does not speak for the Fed as a whole. That said, we've already seen housing prices moderate. I just don't think we'll see much a decline beyond this around here, sadly, as that would be helpful. If folks are waiting to buy until housing prices come down (as opposed to just growing more slowly), I worry that they are going to be eventually priced out.

Well, today was 3 Feds speaking. And all three...

0950ET *MESTER SAYS SHE DOESN'T THINK FED NEAR A PAUSE IN TIGHTENING, NEED TO SEE SEVERAL MORE GOOD INFLATION READINGS

1200ET *WILLIAMS SAYS FED STILL HAS MORE WORK TO DO ON INFLATION, FURTHER TIGHTENING SHOULD HELP REDUCE INFLATION

1200ET *BULLARD: RISK THAT FED WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ON RATES IN 2023, MARKETS UNDERPRICING RISK FOMC MAY BE MORE AGGRESSIVE, FED HAS `A WAYS TO GO TO GET TO' RESTRICTIVE RATES, FIRST 250 BPS OF TIGHTENING WAS JUST GETTING TO NEUTRAL, TIME TO LET QT PROGRAM RUN FOR NOW; SO FAR, SO GOOD

[Anonymous]

See...the moment you post some facts...instead of koolaid...you get crickets.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

BULLARD:FIRST 250 BPS OF TIGHTENING WAS JUST GETTING TO NEUTRAL
BULLARD: GOAL IS TO HAVE 2023 AS YEAR FOR US DISINFLATION
BULLARD: SITUATION CALLS FOR MUCH HIGHER INTEREST RATES THAT WHAT WE'VE BEEN USED TO

Bullard is the most hawkish of the Fed and does not speak for the Fed as a whole. That said, we've already seen housing prices moderate. I just don't think we'll see much a decline beyond this around here, sadly, as that would be helpful. If folks are waiting to buy until housing prices come down (as opposed to just growing more slowly), I worry that they are going to be eventually priced out.

Well, today was 3 Feds speaking. And all three...

0950ET *MESTER SAYS SHE DOESN'T THINK FED NEAR A PAUSE IN TIGHTENING, NEED TO SEE SEVERAL MORE GOOD INFLATION READINGS

1200ET *WILLIAMS SAYS FED STILL HAS MORE WORK TO DO ON INFLATION, FURTHER TIGHTENING SHOULD HELP REDUCE INFLATION

1200ET *BULLARD: RISK THAT FED WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ON RATES IN 2023, MARKETS UNDERPRICING RISK FOMC MAY BE MORE AGGRESSIVE, FED HAS `A WAYS TO GO TO GET TO' RESTRICTIVE RATES, FIRST 250 BPS OF TIGHTENING WAS JUST GETTING TO NEUTRAL, TIME TO LET QT PROGRAM RUN FOR NOW; SO FAR, SO GOOD

+1 This is what the Fed Board Governors have been saying for a while now. Plus other indicators pointing to bad economic times. I don't understand how some people can believe anything other than rates will continue to rise and home values will decline.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

BULLARD:FIRST 250 BPS OF TIGHTENING WAS JUST GETTING TO NEUTRAL
BULLARD: GOAL IS TO HAVE 2023 AS YEAR FOR US DISINFLATION
BULLARD: SITUATION CALLS FOR MUCH HIGHER INTEREST RATES THAT WHAT WE'VE BEEN USED TO

Bullard is the most hawkish of the Fed and does not speak for the Fed as a whole. That said, we've already seen housing prices moderate. I just don't think we'll see much a decline beyond this around here, sadly, as that would be helpful. If folks are waiting to buy until housing prices come down (as opposed to just growing more slowly), I worry that they are going to be eventually priced out.

Well, today was 3 Feds speaking. And all three...

0950ET *MESTER SAYS SHE DOESN'T THINK FED NEAR A PAUSE IN TIGHTENING, NEED TO SEE SEVERAL MORE GOOD INFLATION READINGS

1200ET *WILLIAMS SAYS FED STILL HAS MORE WORK TO DO ON INFLATION, FURTHER TIGHTENING SHOULD HELP REDUCE INFLATION

1200ET *BULLARD: RISK THAT FED WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ON RATES IN 2023, MARKETS UNDERPRICING RISK FOMC MAY BE MORE AGGRESSIVE, FED HAS `A WAYS TO GO TO GET TO' RESTRICTIVE RATES, FIRST 250 BPS OF TIGHTENING WAS JUST GETTING TO NEUTRAL, TIME TO LET QT PROGRAM RUN FOR NOW; SO FAR, SO GOOD

+1 This is what the Fed Board Governors have been saying for a while now. Plus other indicators pointing to bad economic times. I don't understand how some people can believe anything other than rates will continue to rise and home values will decline.

The problem is that rates are going up and prices are still going up around here, just more slowly. It is immensely frustrating for those trying to buy a house. Nice houses in good areas are still going at prices that seem crazy, and I've been saying the prices are crazy for ages. But the economy is still strong, houses in established and desirable areas are still in high demand, and people are willing to pay high prices because they can and probably are confident that rates will go down in the future. So I don't know what to say, but those who wait to try to time the market (I'm including myself here) are likely going to get burnt.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

BULLARD:FIRST 250 BPS OF TIGHTENING WAS JUST GETTING TO NEUTRAL
BULLARD: GOAL IS TO HAVE 2023 AS YEAR FOR US DISINFLATION
BULLARD: SITUATION CALLS FOR MUCH HIGHER INTEREST RATES THAT WHAT WE'VE BEEN USED TO

Bullard is the most hawkish of the Fed and does not speak for the Fed as a whole. That said, we've already seen housing prices moderate. I just don't think we'll see much a decline beyond this around here, sadly, as that would be helpful. If folks are waiting to buy until housing prices come down (as opposed to just growing more slowly), I worry that they are going to be eventually priced out.

Well, today was 3 Feds speaking. And all three...

0950ET *MESTER SAYS SHE DOESN'T THINK FED NEAR A PAUSE IN TIGHTENING, NEED TO SEE SEVERAL MORE GOOD INFLATION READINGS

1200ET *WILLIAMS SAYS FED STILL HAS MORE WORK TO DO ON INFLATION, FURTHER TIGHTENING SHOULD HELP REDUCE INFLATION

1200ET *BULLARD: RISK THAT FED WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ON RATES IN 2023, MARKETS UNDERPRICING RISK FOMC MAY BE MORE AGGRESSIVE, FED HAS `A WAYS TO GO TO GET TO' RESTRICTIVE RATES, FIRST 250 BPS OF TIGHTENING WAS JUST GETTING TO NEUTRAL, TIME TO LET QT PROGRAM RUN FOR NOW; SO FAR, SO GOOD

+1 This is what the Fed Board Governors have been saying for a while now. Plus other indicators pointing to bad economic times. I don't understand how some people can believe anything other than rates will continue to rise and home values will decline.

I don't think we are going to get the recession you are hoping for, but we shall see. The Fed doesn't want a recession. They want a soft landing, and so far, they are on the way to accomplishing that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:To all the people saying their home has lost value...according to who? Zillow? lol

Stop paying attention to your estimated home value on a monthly basis if you aren't selling in the near future. It will go down, it will go up, who cares. 5, 10, 15 years from now, you'll see nice appreciation.

If a more prolonged recession comes anyways, rates will tank and people with large cash deposits will pounce on the homes. Frankly, a recession could be a net positive if you are on the sidelines with cash.

Exactly this. We’re at a point where we rely on bogus algorithms on Zillow than actually checking for actual values.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

BULLARD:FIRST 250 BPS OF TIGHTENING WAS JUST GETTING TO NEUTRAL
BULLARD: GOAL IS TO HAVE 2023 AS YEAR FOR US DISINFLATION
BULLARD: SITUATION CALLS FOR MUCH HIGHER INTEREST RATES THAT WHAT WE'VE BEEN USED TO

Bullard is the most hawkish of the Fed and does not speak for the Fed as a whole. That said, we've already seen housing prices moderate. I just don't think we'll see much a decline beyond this around here, sadly, as that would be helpful. If folks are waiting to buy until housing prices come down (as opposed to just growing more slowly), I worry that they are going to be eventually priced out.

Well, today was 3 Feds speaking. And all three...

0950ET *MESTER SAYS SHE DOESN'T THINK FED NEAR A PAUSE IN TIGHTENING, NEED TO SEE SEVERAL MORE GOOD INFLATION READINGS

1200ET *WILLIAMS SAYS FED STILL HAS MORE WORK TO DO ON INFLATION, FURTHER TIGHTENING SHOULD HELP REDUCE INFLATION

1200ET *BULLARD: RISK THAT FED WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ON RATES IN 2023, MARKETS UNDERPRICING RISK FOMC MAY BE MORE AGGRESSIVE, FED HAS `A WAYS TO GO TO GET TO' RESTRICTIVE RATES, FIRST 250 BPS OF TIGHTENING WAS JUST GETTING TO NEUTRAL, TIME TO LET QT PROGRAM RUN FOR NOW; SO FAR, SO GOOD

+1 This is what the Fed Board Governors have been saying for a while now. Plus other indicators pointing to bad economic times. I don't understand how some people can believe anything other than rates will continue to rise and home values will decline.

The problem is that rates are going up and prices are still going up around here, just more slowly. It is immensely frustrating for those trying to buy a house. Nice houses in good areas are still going at prices that seem crazy, and I've been saying the prices are crazy for ages. But the economy is still strong, houses in established and desirable areas are still in high demand, and people are willing to pay high prices because they can and probably are confident that rates will go down in the future. So I don't know what to say, but those who wait to try to time the market (I'm including myself here) are likely going to get burnt.

Yep -- we had to move in 2021 to take care of an elderly family member. We are currently renting and feel very stressed about our ability to ever own again.