Why do expert say: Buckle in for a brutal free-fall in home prices - Housing Bubble

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Or, basically, what all the reasonable people have been posting for the past year

- No crash
- Price plateau or mild/soft correction
- Return of contingencies to contracts
- Those that bought at peak will still likely not be underwater assuming they had a DP of greater than 5%

Really, not that bad when you think about it

Agreed and maybe not even all that much of a plateau depending on how much activity the is during the spring market. Probably more like slower, typical appreciation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The people trapped in their homes with low interest rate mortgages will require an unemployment event to start the housing price avalanche. Prices could remain stable in housing with a corresponding loaf of bread costing 50 dollars. It’s a currency collapse.

It would take quite the high new income offer to leave a low payment house, sell it and rebuy the same elsewhere with a high monthly payment.

I don’t think people will move for a new job unless it is very lower cost of living there. Employers will have to make roles remote, or find a wealthy new employee…

Employers hire young people mostly. And they are renters.

Moot point on SFH prices and mortgage then.
Also moot because it’s costlier management that’s laid off and recent hires first. The latter group doesn’t own anything to sell anyhow.

I agree with the previous posters claim: very high bar to relocate right now given the huge change in interest rates going from 3% to 6%. Many people rushed to buy and overpay before all the 50bps hikes. Now it’s a very different environment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Or, basically, what all the reasonable people have been posting for the past year

- No crash
- Price plateau or mild/soft correction
- Return of contingencies to contracts
- Those that bought at peak will still likely not be underwater assuming they had a DP of greater than 5%

Really, not that bad when you think about it

Buying a house in USA means youre down 10% right away.

6% to realtor commissions buyside, sellside
1-2% to stupid title companies to “prove no one else has a claim on the land (since the last check and transaction we did or missed)
1-2% to local government

Most countries only pay a realtor listing agent 1% max.

Realtor lobby is the largest lobby in the country. But their model will break down in extended flat markets

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Or, basically, what all the reasonable people have been posting for the past year

- No crash
- Price plateau or mild/soft correction
- Return of contingencies to contracts
- Those that bought at peak will still likely not be underwater assuming they had a DP of greater than 5%

Really, not that bad when you think about it

Buying a house in USA means youre down 10% right away.

6% to realtor commissions buyside, sellside
1-2% to stupid title companies to “prove no one else has a claim on the land (since the last check and transaction we did or missed)
1-2% to local government

Most countries only pay a realtor listing agent 1% max.

Realtor lobby is the largest lobby in the country. But their model will break down in extended flat markets

I mean, you are correct that that are commissions and fees, but does anyone pay more than 5% anymore? I know many who did less

[Anonymous]

Don't look now, but 30-year fixed rates just fell under 6%. If they hit 5%, I think all this talk of a bust is going to come to naught.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Don't look now, but 30-year fixed rates just fell under 6%. If they hit 5%, I think all this talk of a bust is going to come to naught.

No. Look at monthly payments. Period.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don't look now, but 30-year fixed rates just fell under 6%. If they hit 5%, I think all this talk of a bust is going to come to naught.

No. Look at monthly payments. Period.

You, or someone like you, keeps saying that, and yet even at higher rates, people are still paying higher than pre-COVID prices. And with rates dropping, what makes you think that that is going to change? And when?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don't look now, but 30-year fixed rates just fell under 6%. If they hit 5%, I think all this talk of a bust is going to come to naught.

No. Look at monthly payments. Period.

Well that settles that.

[Anonymous]

16 houses currently listed in my NOVA zip code. And a good portion are new builds. Tomorrow is kind of the first spring listing weekend. It'll be interesting to see how much comes online.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Or, basically, what all the reasonable people have been posting for the past year

- No crash
- Price plateau or mild/soft correction
- Return of contingencies to contracts
- Those that bought at peak will still likely not be underwater assuming they had a DP of greater than 5%

Really, not that bad when you think about it

Buying a house in USA means youre down 10% right away.

6% to realtor commissions buyside, sellside
1-2% to stupid title companies to “prove no one else has a claim on the land (since the last check and transaction we did or missed)
1-2% to local government

Most countries only pay a realtor listing agent 1% max.

Realtor lobby is the largest lobby in the country. But their model will break down in extended flat markets

I mean, you are correct that that are commissions and fees, but does anyone pay more than 5% anymore? I know many who did less

It’s 9-10% fees to round trip a house. That’s why people like to say live there at least 5 years, they hope on average the house sells 10% higher than when purchased. If it doesn’t you don’t get all your equity back.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

I'm seeing a lot of houses over $2 million in Bethesda sitting a lot longer than before.

[Anonymous]

Multiple houses in our neighborhood have “Pending” signs without ever going on the market. Pocket listings. I was honestly surprised.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Or, basically, what all the reasonable people have been posting for the past year

- No crash
- Price plateau or mild/soft correction
- Return of contingencies to contracts
- Those that bought at peak will still likely not be underwater assuming they had a DP of greater than 5%

Really, not that bad when you think about it

Buying a house in USA means youre down 10% right away.

6% to realtor commissions buyside, sellside
1-2% to stupid title companies to “prove no one else has a claim on the land (since the last check and transaction we did or missed)
1-2% to local government

Most countries only pay a realtor listing agent 1% max.

Realtor lobby is the largest lobby in the country. But their model will break down in extended flat markets

I mean, you are correct that that are commissions and fees, but does anyone pay more than 5% anymore? I know many who did less

If if Europe has a 1% or less broker free and do just as much work or more than this silly UsA broker MLS mafia model.
3-6% stinks, can’t believe it exists. Plus you can get your broker license in 90 days and sell or buy your house yourself. Many smart people do this. Pay yourself 3% of a $1-2M property.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Or, basically, what all the reasonable people have been posting for the past year

- No crash
- Price plateau or mild/soft correction
- Return of contingencies to contracts
- Those that bought at peak will still likely not be underwater assuming they had a DP of greater than 5%

Really, not that bad when you think about it

Buying a house in USA means youre down 10% right away.

If appreciation covers that then what about property taxes and insurance?

6% to realtor commissions buyside, sellside
1-2% to stupid title companies to “prove no one else has a claim on the land (since the last check and transaction we did or missed)
1-2% to local government

Most countries only pay a realtor listing agent 1% max.

Realtor lobby is the largest lobby in the country. But their model will break down in extended flat markets

I mean, you are correct that that are commissions and fees, but does anyone pay more than 5% anymore? I know many who did less

It’s 9-10% fees to round trip a house. That’s why people like to say live there at least 5 years, they hope on average the house sells 10% higher than when purchased. If it doesn’t you don’t get all your equity back.