Why do expert say: Buckle in for a brutal free-fall in home prices - Housing Bubble

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The opposite of whatever the experts predict is probably what will happen.

How so?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The headline is more alarming than the content. Most of the people surveyed say a 10-20% drop in housing prices. I would say we’ve already seen about a 10% drop in prices in the DMV, uneven across areas but if you look at all the price cuts prices even in desirable areas seem to me to be about 10% lower than they were say six months ago.

This, and for people who bought before 2019, this will basically only wipe out the steep increase in prices over the last couple years but will not touch the equity they built before that. Meaning you can still sell a house for a profit after owning it for 5-7 years at a minimum. The housing market can never sustain steep price increases for long.

The only people who should be freaking out right now are people who bought within the last two years and want or have to sell in the immediate future -- they may take a bath. Also, people who have been waiting for prices to return to 2010-2011 levels are in for a rude awakening -- even with rate increases, that is unlikely to happen because of inventory. Unlike in 2008/2009, this housing "crash" is not fueled by overbuilding housing stock in hot markets (back then, it was places like Las Vegas and Florida, where developers built thousands of new houses knowing they could sell them to people for little to no money down). We also aren't seeing rippling economic effects leading to mass layoffs. A slowdown in hiring, yes, and some targeted layoffs in some industries, but not the domino effect of the last time.

Yeah, like the poster on here who constantly talks about “reverting to the mean”. Gonna be waiting for that “revert to mean” forever, buddy. It’s not going to go down that low in this area. Unless they’re posting from Austin, TX or Boise, ID. Too many folks not wanting to sell and give up their 2.5-3.5% interest rate.

Look how sure are you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don’t get how prices will fall when supply is so low.

Demand is even lower.

Not where we are looking. Still quite a bit of demand. So it’s definitely area specific

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don’t get how prices will fall when supply is so low.

Demand is even lower.

Not where we are looking. Still quite a bit of demand. So it’s definitely area specific

Prices will fall. Sellers are yet to realize the new normal which is no demand for homes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don’t get how prices will fall when supply is so low.

The demand has absolutely slowed down. People are losing their jobs especially tech. Along with being a Fed hub, DC is also a tech hub. And those who haven't lost their jobs aren't making any large purchases right now especially at 7% rates.

Not the tech jobs here. Not contacting, not defense contractors. Sorry! People are still hiring. This is not a recession that people think it is, it's reactionary and situational.

Yeah I work in tech in DC and we’re still desperate for people, and giving signing bonuses and being super flexible on remote work to get well qualified people into needed roles. If tech companies are laying people off in this area, it’s news to me. Also let me know who so I can target those folks for jobs!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Home prices drop every decade. It is happening now. Our home has gone down in a desirable neighborhood. How far down it will go, who knows. I doubt it will be as bad as 2010 ish. Anyone refusing to believe prices are coming down has their head in the sand.

No one has their head in the sand here. Hell, we sold our house this summer and saw a drop of 10% versus what we could have made off it just 3 months before. Everyone agrees prices are going to drop the 10-20% versus Spring 2022 because the 10% has already happened on houses not in great neighborhoods and completely updated. But everyone who also understands that people aren’t going to sell their house with a 2.75% interest rate just because sideliners want them to understands it’s not going to be a 30-40% crash.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We're looking (not urgent) and inventory is...fine really. Up from last year really. Prices are falling a bit. But they need to fall more to make up for the increase in payments were looking at due to rate increases (almost $1,500 a month on the ~1ms were looking at!).

We're hoping we find something in the spring and are not stressed about it.

This assumption doesn’t make sense to me. This implies you have the right to buy a certain size/location whatever of house. People who need to buy will just have to buy less house than before. Rates were artificially low

That’s the theory of all the people expecting drastic price drops. But just because that’s the math doesn’t mean all the people owning houses with low interest rates are gonna lockstep put their house on the market no matter what. They are ALSO sidelining, waiting for things to settle out. They don’t have to sell just because buyers want them to. We aren’t. Gonna sit on our 2.75% rate and wait until later.

Meanwhile, as PP said, buyers need to do what has always been the case…shop for a house within their means, which may mean not the ideal house for now and trade up later.

[Anonymous]

The longer we wait for this price decrease that’s predicted, the more likely it won’t happen. Our money supply doubled and there is a very high change that inflation is entrenched in housing prices. Yes, interest rates may have an effect but there are many variables besides interest rates that affect supply and demand. If the economy stays relatively normal and low unemployment, how would it make sense for housing prices to drop dramatically while the price of everything else stays stable or increases? We will need to see large increases in unemployment. Unfortunately, I don’t think this drop is going to happen. The Fed was successful in calming down the market as it seems we are no longer seeing large month over month increases in price. But there’s a difference between calming the market and a free fall in prices.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think I agree with PP—I think inventory will be very tight because no one is going to move until they really have to. Lots of people with shaky marriages will stay out rather than give up that sweet sweet interest rate!
I don’t wonder if we will see a sharp increase in renters in SFH areas and/or people converting houses to duplexes. Both of those were really common pre-Ww2 when it was much tougher to get mortgages. That’s what my grandparents did. That sort of system makes a lot of sense in this sort of market I think.

Boston area is full of houses like that chopped up into condos. It’s so yuck.

[Anonymous]

The key will be whether wages increase enough to make inflation entrenched. These prices can stay high only as long as people have assets or salaries to buy them. Assets are declining. Salaries need to decline or stabilize for prices to go back down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The key will be whether wages increase enough to make inflation entrenched. These prices can stay high only as long as people have assets or salaries to buy them. Assets are declining. Salaries need to decline or stabilize for prices to go back down.

This!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nope. No inventory.

Really? I am seeing lots of inventory in the inside-the-beltway surburbs in Moco, Arlington, and Fairfax. It's just that sellers still are pricing like it's the spring.

That will change.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Home prices drop every decade. It is happening now. Our home has gone down in a desirable neighborhood. How far down it will go, who knows. I doubt it will be as bad as 2010 ish. Anyone refusing to believe prices are coming down has their head in the sand.

+1..same for our n Arlington neighborhood.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don’t get how prices will fall when supply is so low.

Demand is even lower.

Not where we are looking. Still quite a bit of demand. So it’s definitely area specific

Prices will fall. Sellers are yet to realize the new normal which is no demand for homes.

Prices will fall. But they won’t crater like they did in 2008. If anyone is waiting for that they might be disappointed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don’t get how prices will fall when supply is so low.

Demand is even lower.

Not where we are looking. Still quite a bit of demand. So it’s definitely area specific

Prices will fall. Sellers are yet to realize the new normal which is no demand for homes.

Prices will fall. But they won’t crater like they did in 2008. If anyone is waiting for that they might be disappointed.

I haven't actually seen anyone on here say they thought prices would fall that far. Not that I've read everything on here - ha.