Target/Match vs. Likely/Safety

[Anonymous]

Nice post 18:30 - I agree with your strategy and ours was similar.

My DD had a 504 and not super high confidence and we agreed she was only going to apply to schools where she had reasonable chances of acceptance. In the end she applied to 7 schools. Three were total safeties (meaning we would’ve been shocked if she didn’t get in; this was based on her stats, their acceptance rates, and Naviance data). The other four were all what I would consider matches or low reaches. All were possible but none was a given. One was a match on paper but since it’s an OOS flagship we weren’t sure if she’d get in. Rest were in-state but one is very competitive overall, one a target on paper but very popular at her school as both a match and a safety, and one is not competitive overall but very competitive for her desired major. We were hoping she’d get into at least one in-state school and she ended up getting in everywhere.

For my kid it was really important for us (and her) to stack the deck with as many viable options as possible. Even if the only schools she got into were the safeties, she had good programs to choose from, one with merit money, and a range of choices which I think is very empowering.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here- with TO it seems that the test scores of admitted students will be skewed much higher because only kids with high test scores will be submitting them, right? And I have heard that Naviance is only as good as how up to date your school admin keeps it, correct?

I hope the SATS scores are skewing high and will come back to earth before my 10 & 11th graders apply. The 11th grader is practice testing around 1390 & with a weighted 4.0, and against current college stats, his “safeties” are looking more like super “reaches”. Regarding naviance, the high schools I’m aware of are good at keeping that up to date.

I hope so too (for my 11th grader) but realistically the only way that will happen is if more schools (like MIT) revert to non-optional. So many schools have not announced their plans for the fall 2023 application cycle (current juniors) -- BC and Villanova are two that come to mind -- so I'll be curious to see whether they, or schools of similar selectivity, start requiring scores again.

Per an article I read,

"Of the roughly 1,000 colleges nationwide that use the Common App — a universal undergraduate college admission application used by about 1,000 colleges — 95% of them were test-optional in 2022, and 95% will remain so in 2023."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can someone name a handful of “likely/safeties” that very good stats kids would really like (looking at kids who would not seriously be considered at a top 25 school - so 4.0ish). For example, South Carolina seemed like a “favorite safety” from DS’s school last year (but I do not know what their stats).

You would look at public colleges excluding the public ivies, geographic preference of your kid (East Coast, South, Midwest), taking into account in-state vs OOS acceptance rates and any OOS caps, the competitiveness of the major, and college experience (i.e. if they want a big football school, greek life etc. and financial affordability. Popular ones from this area are Delaware, Pitt, Wisconsin, South Carolina and maybe JMU or VT depending on major and state residency.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Several on DS list happen to be rolling so I am going to encourage him to apply as soon as they open in August (he is a junior). My one concern is his HS counseling says to allow "at least three weeks" for all rolling admission schools for transcripts, etc. to be sent and there is very little action in the summer months so he might have to wait until September for them to be complete.

Check if the school has Self-Reported Academic Record (SRAR) like University of Delaware. The applicant self reports grades to apply and sends the transcripts later. You need an official transcript to matriculate and entering false info in the SRAR puts acceptance and any merit at risk so you would want to make sure the info is accurate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can someone name a handful of “likely/safeties” that very good stats kids would really like (looking at kids who would not seriously be considered at a top 25 school - so 4.0ish). For example, South Carolina seemed like a “favorite safety” from DS’s school last year (but I do not know what their stats).

You would look at public colleges excluding the public ivies, geographic preference of your kid (East Coast, South, Midwest), taking into account in-state vs OOS acceptance rates and any OOS caps, the competitiveness of the major, and college experience (i.e. if they want a big football school, greek life etc. and financial affordability. Popular ones from this area are Delaware, Pitt, Wisconsin, South Carolina and maybe JMU or VT depending on major and state residency.

I don’t think VT is a strong safety anymore (I don’t know anything about JMU stats) and it seems Delaware has fallen out of favor lately? Another, Miami (Ohio) seems to have come and gone as a DMV area favorite.

Pitt
Wisconsin
South Carolina

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP analysis would be a lot better with stats.

Current Junior

Latino
3.9 UW
No Test Scores yet (taking SAT in March)
Jv/Varsity football since Freshman year
JV basketball 10th grade
PT jobs in summer
No volunteer activities in 9th due to covid. Some last year (special olympics and HS booster club), but planning on much more once football season is over in December.

Looking at mostly large state schools in the SEC, with a couple others thrown in once he finds matches and likelies.

He's a strong applicant. Intended major? And, if STEM, current math and science classes?

He wants to do business

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP analysis would be a lot better with stats.

Current Junior

Latino
3.9 UW
No Test Scores yet (taking SAT in March)
Jv/Varsity football since Freshman year
JV basketball 10th grade
PT jobs in summer
No volunteer activities in 9th due to covid. Some last year (special olympics and HS booster club), but planning on much more once football season is over in December.

Looking at mostly large state schools in the SEC, with a couple others thrown in once he finds matches and likelies.

He's a strong applicant. Intended major? And, if STEM, current math and science classes?

He wants to do business

UofSC is really strong for undergrad business, especially international, and has a truly phenomenal honors college. Your DS seems likely to be admitted to the university and maybe also to the honors college--he should check it out if he hasn't already. Also, UTK is strong for undergrad business and your DS almost certainly would be admitted.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here- with TO it seems that the test scores of admitted students will be skewed much higher because only kids with high test scores will be submitting them, right? And I have heard that Naviance is only as good as how up to date your school admin keeps it, correct?

I hope the SATS scores are skewing high and will come back to earth before my 10 & 11th graders apply. The 11th grader is practice testing around 1390 & with a weighted 4.0, and against current college stats, his “safeties” are looking more like super “reaches”. Regarding naviance, the high schools I’m aware of are good at keeping that up to date.

I hope so too (for my 11th grader) but realistically the only way that will happen is if more schools (like MIT) revert to non-optional. So many schools have not announced their plans for the fall 2023 application cycle (current juniors) -- BC and Villanova are two that come to mind -- so I'll be curious to see whether they, or schools of similar selectivity, start requiring scores again.

Actually, many schools have announced their plans: test optional.

If you're going to take the SAT, just factor in higher scores since only applicants with high scores will submit.

After the SCOTUS bans affirmative action in the upcoming cases, test optional will likely be the norm anyways.

There won't be any clear / definitive advantage to having a high SAT score. The SAT is already a lower stakes test in today's college admissions environment.

I agree that the significance of an SAT scores ain't what it used to be by any means. But as long as the scores submitted by applicants are made public, and are available on the many college related websites, colleges will want those scores to be as high as practical. (Some people will continue to believe that the higher the average scores, the more selective and prestigious the school.) Thus there will still be value in a strong SAT score.

For a test optional school, how so?

Test optional is not really test optional. It basically allows the school to do whatever they want without objective criteria. So, if you have some characteristic that the school wants (demographics, a 4.3 40 yard, a great 3pt shot, a father that donated a library), then don't submit tests. If you don't have these things, you better have very high test scores.

To be blunt, if you are white and not first-generation you need to have top grades and submit scores if you want to get into a top school.

+100 This.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here- with TO it seems that the test scores of admitted students will be skewed much higher because only kids with high test scores will be submitting them, right? And I have heard that Naviance is only as good as how up to date your school admin keeps it, correct?

I hope the SATS scores are skewing high and will come back to earth before my 10 & 11th graders apply. The 11th grader is practice testing around 1390 & with a weighted 4.0, and against current college stats, his “safeties” are looking more like super “reaches”. Regarding naviance, the high schools I’m aware of are good at keeping that up to date.

I hope so too (for my 11th grader) but realistically the only way that will happen is if more schools (like MIT) revert to non-optional. So many schools have not announced their plans for the fall 2023 application cycle (current juniors) -- BC and Villanova are two that come to mind -- so I'll be curious to see whether they, or schools of similar selectivity, start requiring scores again.

Actually, many schools have announced their plans: test optional.

If you're going to take the SAT, just factor in higher scores since only applicants with high scores will submit.

After the SCOTUS bans affirmative action in the upcoming cases, test optional will likely be the norm anyways.

There won't be any clear / definitive advantage to having a high SAT score. The SAT is already a lower stakes test in today's college admissions environment.

I agree that the significance of an SAT scores ain't what it used to be by any means. But as long as the scores submitted by applicants are made public, and are available on the many college related websites, colleges will want those scores to be as high as practical. (Some people will continue to believe that the higher the average scores, the more selective and prestigious the school.) Thus there will still be value in a strong SAT score.

For a test optional school, how so?

Test optional is not really test optional. It basically allows the school to do whatever they want without objective criteria. So, if you have some characteristic that the school wants (demographics, a 4.3 40 yard, a great 3pt shot, a father that donated a library), then don't submit tests. If you don't have these things, you better have very high test scores.

To be blunt, if you are white and not first-generation you need to have top grades and submit scores if you want to get into a top school.

+100 This.

Oh, look: Dumb agrees with Dumber.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here- with TO it seems that the test scores of admitted students will be skewed much higher because only kids with high test scores will be submitting them, right? And I have heard that Naviance is only as good as how up to date your school admin keeps it, correct?

I hope the SATS scores are skewing high and will come back to earth before my 10 & 11th graders apply. The 11th grader is practice testing around 1390 & with a weighted 4.0, and against current college stats, his “safeties” are looking more like super “reaches”. Regarding naviance, the high schools I’m aware of are good at keeping that up to date.

I hope so too (for my 11th grader) but realistically the only way that will happen is if more schools (like MIT) revert to non-optional. So many schools have not announced their plans for the fall 2023 application cycle (current juniors) -- BC and Villanova are two that come to mind -- so I'll be curious to see whether they, or schools of similar selectivity, start requiring scores again.

Actually, many schools have announced their plans: test optional.

If you're going to take the SAT, just factor in higher scores since only applicants with high scores will submit.

After the SCOTUS bans affirmative action in the upcoming cases, test optional will likely be the norm anyways.

There won't be any clear / definitive advantage to having a high SAT score. The SAT is already a lower stakes test in today's college admissions environment.

I agree that the significance of an SAT scores ain't what it used to be by any means. But as long as the scores submitted by applicants are made public, and are available on the many college related websites, colleges will want those scores to be as high as practical. (Some people will continue to believe that the higher the average scores, the more selective and prestigious the school.) Thus there will still be value in a strong SAT score.

For a test optional school, how so?

Test optional is not really test optional. It basically allows the school to do whatever they want without objective criteria. So, if you have some characteristic that the school wants (demographics, a 4.3 40 yard, a great 3pt shot, a father that donated a library), then don't submit tests. If you don't have these things, you better have very high test scores.

To be blunt, if you are white and not first-generation you need to have top grades and submit scores if you want to get into a top school.

+100 This.

So are all of the admissions officers saying this is not true lying? Do you have data to support this?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here- with TO it seems that the test scores of admitted students will be skewed much higher because only kids with high test scores will be submitting them, right? And I have heard that Naviance is only as good as how up to date your school admin keeps it, correct?

I hope the SATS scores are skewing high and will come back to earth before my 10 & 11th graders apply. The 11th grader is practice testing around 1390 & with a weighted 4.0, and against current college stats, his “safeties” are looking more like super “reaches”. Regarding naviance, the high schools I’m aware of are good at keeping that up to date.

I hope so too (for my 11th grader) but realistically the only way that will happen is if more schools (like MIT) revert to non-optional. So many schools have not announced their plans for the fall 2023 application cycle (current juniors) -- BC and Villanova are two that come to mind -- so I'll be curious to see whether they, or schools of similar selectivity, start requiring scores again.

Actually, many schools have announced their plans: test optional.

If you're going to take the SAT, just factor in higher scores since only applicants with high scores will submit.

After the SCOTUS bans affirmative action in the upcoming cases, test optional will likely be the norm anyways.

There won't be any clear / definitive advantage to having a high SAT score. The SAT is already a lower stakes test in today's college admissions environment.

I agree that the significance of an SAT scores ain't what it used to be by any means. But as long as the scores submitted by applicants are made public, and are available on the many college related websites, colleges will want those scores to be as high as practical. (Some people will continue to believe that the higher the average scores, the more selective and prestigious the school.) Thus there will still be value in a strong SAT score.

For a test optional school, how so?

Test optional is not really test optional. It basically allows the school to do whatever they want without objective criteria. So, if you have some characteristic that the school wants (demographics, a 4.3 40 yard, a great 3pt shot, a father that donated a library), then don't submit tests. If you don't have these things, you better have very high test scores.

To be blunt, if you are white and not first-generation you need to have top grades and submit scores if you want to get into a top school.

+100 This.

Oh, look: Dumb agrees with Dumber.

Go look at the final RD results postings right year from this year. Over and over.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Great suggestions in this thread, thanks.

Did any of you encourage your student to include rolling admission schools on their likely list, and apply to them as early as possible?

PITT is it.

We kept going back and forth on Pitt but after visiting, it’s now one of DS’s top choice schools. It’s really good to like your safeties!

My high stats kid is not thrilled with Pitt as a safety. Any suggestions of other safeties/rolling admit schools? Not interested in huge state schools, not interested in Greek life, prefers East Coast, nerdy kids who wants challenge.

USC
College of Charleston
Loyola of Chicago
Bingmington (spelling is off)

[Anonymous]

Wisconsin is not a safety school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wisconsin is not a safety school.

For some kids it is, which is not a knock against Wisconsin. It is large and fairly transparent with their admissions. Many kids have a pretty good idea whether or not they will be admitted. Regardless, it is a great school. Lot's of fun and many very top notch programs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You will be fine. SEC with those stats is easy other than Vanderbilt. Look for scholarship money from Alabama.

Agree, except to note that Auburn has gotten harder to get into from OOS. They are technically test optional, but they really prefer test scores, and applying early helps.