Target/Match vs. Likely/Safety

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP analysis would be a lot better with stats.

Current Junior

Latino
3.9 UW
No Test Scores yet (taking SAT in March)
Jv/Varsity football since Freshman year
JV basketball 10th grade
PT jobs in summer
No volunteer activities in 9th due to covid. Some last year (special olympics and HS booster club), but planning on much more once football season is over in December.

Looking at mostly large state schools in the SEC, with a couple others thrown in once he finds matches and likelies.

He's a strong applicant. Intended major? And, if STEM, current math and science classes?

[Anonymous]

A safety is a safety once you're in. Apply early. We considered the process fluid. The list fluid. Applications went in, heard from some, schools could be dropped. Knew deadlines. Schools could be added. Btw, the ultimate safeties are schools in May-June that show up on the Space Available Survey. It's a thing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can someone name a handful of “likely/safeties” that very good stats kids would really like (looking at kids who would not seriously be considered at a top 25 school - so 4.0ish). For example, South Carolina seemed like a “favorite safety” from DS’s school last year (but I do not know what their stats).

A school that one very good stats kid might really like, another such kid might hate. You have to specify the size of the school the kid prefers (big state flagship, SLAC, etc.), what parts of the country the kid is open to (e.g. won't consider a school in the Midwest), and so on.

It will also depend a lot on their specific academic interest. If they know the major they want, look for a school that has great resources for that rather than the generalities of a school. My DD wants to go to W&M but it's a reach. She wants to study environmental science/biology focus. She also loves her safety, Juniata College, because ES is one of their biggest programs, she can spend a semester living at their field station taking classes and doing research, research overall is a big part of their academics, it ranks high on per-capita students going on to PhDs, they have the ECs she wants to do, it's relatively diverse for a LAC because they have a pretty high % of international students, and she really liked the people she met when we went to their open house. She has other more highly ranked LACs on her list but if the merit money on those doesn't come through or she doesn't get into W&M she will be very happy with Juniata. And, really, even if some of the other LACs fit the budget she may still pick Juniata.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can someone name a handful of “likely/safeties” that very good stats kids would really like (looking at kids who would not seriously be considered at a top 25 school - so 4.0ish). For example, South Carolina seemed like a “favorite safety” from DS’s school last year (but I do not know what their stats).

A school that one very good stats kid might really like, another such kid might hate. You have to specify the size of the school the kid prefers (big state flagship, SLAC, etc.), what parts of the country the kid is open to (e.g. won't consider a school in the Midwest), and so on.

Not an SEC school, not SLAC, not small (> about 10,000 ), at least close to a town/ major airport.

This is my kid — no strong preferences, no idea of major, probably will adjust well at most places, took him to urban and suburban campuses — he liked them both.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here- with TO it seems that the test scores of admitted students will be skewed much higher because only kids with high test scores will be submitting them, right? And I have heard that Naviance is only as good as how up to date your school admin keeps it, correct?

I hope the SATS scores are skewing high and will come back to earth before my 10 & 11th graders apply. The 11th grader is practice testing around 1390 & with a weighted 4.0, and against current college stats, his “safeties” are looking more like super “reaches”. Regarding naviance, the high schools I’m aware of are good at keeping that up to date.

I hope so too (for my 11th grader) but realistically the only way that will happen is if more schools (like MIT) revert to non-optional. So many schools have not announced their plans for the fall 2023 application cycle (current juniors) -- BC and Villanova are two that come to mind -- so I'll be curious to see whether they, or schools of similar selectivity, start requiring scores again.

Actually, many schools have announced their plans: test optional.

If you're going to take the SAT, just factor in higher scores since only applicants with high scores will submit.

After the SCOTUS bans affirmative action in the upcoming cases, test optional will likely be the norm anyways.

There won't be any clear / definitive advantage to having a high SAT score. The SAT is already a lower stakes test in today's college admissions environment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here- with TO it seems that the test scores of admitted students will be skewed much higher because only kids with high test scores will be submitting them, right? And I have heard that Naviance is only as good as how up to date your school admin keeps it, correct?

I hope the SATS scores are skewing high and will come back to earth before my 10 & 11th graders apply. The 11th grader is practice testing around 1390 & with a weighted 4.0, and against current college stats, his “safeties” are looking more like super “reaches”. Regarding naviance, the high schools I’m aware of are good at keeping that up to date.

I hope so too (for my 11th grader) but realistically the only way that will happen is if more schools (like MIT) revert to non-optional. So many schools have not announced their plans for the fall 2023 application cycle (current juniors) -- BC and Villanova are two that come to mind -- so I'll be curious to see whether they, or schools of similar selectivity, start requiring scores again.

Actually, many schools have announced their plans: test optional.

If you're going to take the SAT, just factor in higher scores since only applicants with high scores will submit.

After the SCOTUS bans affirmative action in the upcoming cases, test optional will likely be the norm anyways.

There won't be any clear / definitive advantage to having a high SAT score. The SAT is already a lower stakes test in today's college admissions environment.

I agree that the significance of an SAT scores ain't what it used to be by any means. But as long as the scores submitted by applicants are made public, and are available on the many college related websites, colleges will want those scores to be as high as practical. (Some people will continue to believe that the higher the average scores, the more selective and prestigious the school.) Thus there will still be value in a strong SAT score.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DS went through this last year, and I too was freaking out at finding any safeties. On the advice of a private college counselor, we defined a safety as a college that (a) had an admit rate of >60%, (b), where DS's GPA and SATs were >75th percentile, and (c) where DS would happily attend. That was by far the hardest and most time-consuming part of making his college list.

In the end, he was admitted to all of his safeties, all of his matches, and 1 of his reaches. He chose the reach school, a Top 10 USNWR college and is happy there. Looking back, we think we were more worried than was warranted. Sure, there are kids who are locked out, but most kids do fine. I think the best advice is to make room in your plans for the chance that your kid will be the one who is locked out, but don't abandon all logic.

OP here- I think one of my main concerns is he is mostly interested in big state schools that have a low acceptance rate for OOS students. The posted acceptance rates may seem higher but once you add in the OOS factor, it definitely is much lower.

The PP's advice is solid.
OP - which ones? UMich, UNC, UCLA, Cal, are slim chances. For any others, look at the CDS and determine the percentage out of state... that will be your best indicator if it is a reach or a target.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DS went through this last year, and I too was freaking out at finding any safeties. On the advice of a private college counselor, we defined a safety as a college that (a) had an admit rate of >60%, (b), where DS's GPA and SATs were >75th percentile, and (c) where DS would happily attend. That was by far the hardest and most time-consuming part of making his college list.

In the end, he was admitted to all of his safeties, all of his matches, and 1 of his reaches. He chose the reach school, a Top 10 USNWR college and is happy there. Looking back, we think we were more worried than was warranted. Sure, there are kids who are locked out, but most kids do fine. I think the best advice is to make room in your plans for the chance that your kid will be the one who is locked out, but don't abandon all logic.

OP here- I think one of my main concerns is he is mostly interested in big state schools that have a low acceptance rate for OOS students. The posted acceptance rates may seem higher but once you add in the OOS factor, it definitely is much lower.

The PP's advice is solid.
OP - which ones? UMich, UNC, UCLA, Cal, are slim chances. For any others, look at the CDS and determine the percentage out of state... that will be your best indicator if it is a reach or a target.

Sorry missed the SEC part.... he'll be fine at SEC schools

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Don't listen to any advice from anyone based on the pre-pandemic admissions process. It's a whole new ball game these days.

Be painfully realistic as you rank your kid's chances. It's always better to be pleasantly surprised than to be disappointed. Remember that any school with less than 20% acceptance rates is a reach for EVERYONE, no matter how amazing their stats or profile.

THis^^^ It doesn't matter what your stats are, if acceptance rate is below 20-35%, it's a reach for EVERYONE! You are just able to "buy a lottery ticket" with your stats, otherwise it's a crapshoot

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here- with TO it seems that the test scores of admitted students will be skewed much higher because only kids with high test scores will be submitting them, right? And I have heard that Naviance is only as good as how up to date your school admin keeps it, correct?

I hope the SATS scores are skewing high and will come back to earth before my 10 & 11th graders apply. The 11th grader is practice testing around 1390 & with a weighted 4.0, and against current college stats, his “safeties” are looking more like super “reaches”. Regarding naviance, the high schools I’m aware of are good at keeping that up to date.

I hope so too (for my 11th grader) but realistically the only way that will happen is if more schools (like MIT) revert to non-optional. So many schools have not announced their plans for the fall 2023 application cycle (current juniors) -- BC and Villanova are two that come to mind -- so I'll be curious to see whether they, or schools of similar selectivity, start requiring scores again.

Actually, many schools have announced their plans: test optional.

If you're going to take the SAT, just factor in higher scores since only applicants with high scores will submit.

After the SCOTUS bans affirmative action in the upcoming cases, test optional will likely be the norm anyways.

There won't be any clear / definitive advantage to having a high SAT score. The SAT is already a lower stakes test in today's college admissions environment.

I agree that the significance of an SAT scores ain't what it used to be by any means. But as long as the scores submitted by applicants are made public, and are available on the many college related websites, colleges will want those scores to be as high as practical. (Some people will continue to believe that the higher the average scores, the more selective and prestigious the school.) Thus there will still be value in a strong SAT score.

Sounds like the TO will diminish a lot of the value of naviance -- unless it's known if the student submitted SATs scores or chose TO. Or am I missing something?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here- with TO it seems that the test scores of admitted students will be skewed much higher because only kids with high test scores will be submitting them, right? And I have heard that Naviance is only as good as how up to date your school admin keeps it, correct?

I hope the SATS scores are skewing high and will come back to earth before my 10 & 11th graders apply. The 11th grader is practice testing around 1390 & with a weighted 4.0, and against current college stats, his “safeties” are looking more like super “reaches”. Regarding naviance, the high schools I’m aware of are good at keeping that up to date.

As long as schools are TO, the mean scores will go up every year. Only kids with higher scores submit, so the next year's class has an ever-higher average.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don't listen to any advice from anyone based on the pre-pandemic admissions process. It's a whole new ball game these days.

Be painfully realistic as you rank your kid's chances. It's always better to be pleasantly surprised than to be disappointed. Remember that any school with less than 20% acceptance rates is a reach for EVERYONE, no matter how amazing their stats or profile.

THis^^^ It doesn't matter what your stats are, if acceptance rate is below 20-35%, it's a reach for EVERYONE! You are just able to "buy a lottery ticket" with your stats, otherwise it's a crapshoot

Agree! This was what our student and friends experienced last year 2022

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here- with TO it seems that the test scores of admitted students will be skewed much higher because only kids with high test scores will be submitting them, right? And I have heard that Naviance is only as good as how up to date your school admin keeps it, correct?

I hope the SATS scores are skewing high and will come back to earth before my 10 & 11th graders apply. The 11th grader is practice testing around 1390 & with a weighted 4.0, and against current college stats, his “safeties” are looking more like super “reaches”. Regarding naviance, the high schools I’m aware of are good at keeping that up to date.

I hope so too (for my 11th grader) but realistically the only way that will happen is if more schools (like MIT) revert to non-optional. So many schools have not announced their plans for the fall 2023 application cycle (current juniors) -- BC and Villanova are two that come to mind -- so I'll be curious to see whether they, or schools of similar selectivity, start requiring scores again.

Actually, many schools have announced their plans: test optional.

If you're going to take the SAT, just factor in higher scores since only applicants with high scores will submit.

After the SCOTUS bans affirmative action in the upcoming cases, test optional will likely be the norm anyways.

There won't be any clear / definitive advantage to having a high SAT score. The SAT is already a lower stakes test in today's college admissions environment.

I agree that the significance of an SAT scores ain't what it used to be by any means. But as long as the scores submitted by applicants are made public, and are available on the many college related websites, colleges will want those scores to be as high as practical. (Some people will continue to believe that the higher the average scores, the more selective and prestigious the school.) Thus there will still be value in a strong SAT score.

Sounds like the TO will diminish a lot of the value of naviance -- unless it's known if the student submitted SATs scores or chose TO. Or am I missing something?

Because I am a prestige-chasing DCUM wh()re, I've really only done deep dives into the T20 schools in Naviance, but the green checks all have 1520+ SATs -- 1550+ at T10 schools. My conclusion from this is that they *did* submit scores -- because if your test scores are that high, why wouldn't you?

Of course, my kid's high school is <180 kids per grade, so it's pretty easy to figure out who those green checks belong to anyway, between the parents posting on FB, the high school class "__ High School Class of 202x Admissions" Instagram, chatter from the kids, who's a National Merit semifinalist, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here- with TO it seems that the test scores of admitted students will be skewed much higher because only kids with high test scores will be submitting them, right? And I have heard that Naviance is only as good as how up to date your school admin keeps it, correct?

I hope the SATS scores are skewing high and will come back to earth before my 10 & 11th graders apply. The 11th grader is practice testing around 1390 & with a weighted 4.0, and against current college stats, his “safeties” are looking more like super “reaches”. Regarding naviance, the high schools I’m aware of are good at keeping that up to date.

I hope so too (for my 11th grader) but realistically the only way that will happen is if more schools (like MIT) revert to non-optional. So many schools have not announced their plans for the fall 2023 application cycle (current juniors) -- BC and Villanova are two that come to mind -- so I'll be curious to see whether they, or schools of similar selectivity, start requiring scores again.

Actually, many schools have announced their plans: test optional.

If you're going to take the SAT, just factor in higher scores since only applicants with high scores will submit.

After the SCOTUS bans affirmative action in the upcoming cases, test optional will likely be the norm anyways.

There won't be any clear / definitive advantage to having a high SAT score. The SAT is already a lower stakes test in today's college admissions environment.

I agree that the significance of an SAT scores ain't what it used to be by any means. But as long as the scores submitted by applicants are made public, and are available on the many college related websites, colleges will want those scores to be as high as practical. (Some people will continue to believe that the higher the average scores, the more selective and prestigious the school.) Thus there will still be value in a strong SAT score.

Sounds like the TO will diminish a lot of the value of naviance -- unless it's known if the student submitted SATs scores or chose TO. Or am I missing something?

Because I am a prestige-chasing DCUM wh()re, I've really only done deep dives into the T20 schools in Naviance, but the green checks all have 1520+ SATs -- 1550+ at T10 schools. My conclusion from this is that they *did* submit scores -- because if your test scores are that high, why wouldn't you?

Of course, my kid's high school is <180 kids per grade, so it's pretty easy to figure out who those green checks belong to anyway, between the parents posting on FB, the high school class "__ High School Class of 202x Admissions" Instagram, chatter from the kids, who's a National Merit semifinalist, etc.

Yes I can see that for top schools. What about, say, U Miami, Boston College, Va Tech? I think it will be very skewed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Great suggestions in this thread, thanks.

Did any of you encourage your student to include rolling admission schools on their likely list, and apply to them as early as possible?

PITT is it.

Minnesota too.