2020 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:this seems like a lot

HOORAY!!!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:this seems like a lot

HOLY WOW

[Anonymous]

Gardner is an empty suit. Good riddance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:this seems like a lot

I'd love for this to be true, but it seems like a pretty big outlier, and I'd want to take a look at the fundamentals of this one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:this seems like a lot

I'd love for this to be true, but it seems like a pretty big outlier, and I'd want to take a look at the fundamentals of this one.

went to the twitter page--don't see any info about the source of the poll.......I do think Hickenlooper is ahead, though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:this seems like a lot

I'd love for this to be true, but it seems like a pretty big outlier, and I'd want to take a look at the fundamentals of this one.

went to the twitter page--don't see any info about the source of the poll.......I do think Hickenlooper is ahead, though.

“There hasn’t been much polling out of Colorado recently, but a Democrat-sponsored survey at the beginning of May found Biden leading Trump there by 20 points, and John Hickenlooper ahead of incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner by a 54-36 margin. For context, Hillary Clinton won Colorado by five points and Obama carried it by nine in 2008.”
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/05/20/how-is-the-democrats-race-to-take-back-the-senate-looking/
https://theweek.com/speedreads/913016/gop-sen-gardner-18-points-behind-democrat-hickenlooper-colorado-senate-poll

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/05/28/opinion/contributors/new-poll-shows-gideon-leading-collins-by-9-points/

Ethan: Did you take a look at the new poll on the U.S. Senate race I just sent? It shows U.S. Sen. Susan Collins losing 51 percent to 42 percent to House Speaker Sara Gideon!

Phil: A-yuh. Sobering news for Susan. However, I caution you, my excitable friend, that this is merely a momentary snapshot six months before Election Day.

Ethan: I wish Election Day was today! For our readers, the poll was done by a joint left/right partnership. Commissioned by “Swing Hard. Run Fast. Turn Left!” a decidedly progressive organization I run, but conducted by Victory Geek, a non-partisan data and telecom provider with mostly conservative clients.

Phil: While no one should ever underestimate Susan Collins, the trend in the last few public polls is certainly in the wrong direction for those of us who want to see her re-elected. In March we saw a poll that showed her down 4 points. Two months later, she is now down 9.

Ethan: If I were on Team Collins what I would find most concerning is that Gideon is winning by 20+ points among women and seven points among independents, usually her backstop.

Phil: I saw that. A bigger surprise is that she is losing by 12 points in the 2nd Congressional District. But the reason I reminded you not to get too excited is a number like that will not hold. Donald Trump won northern Maine four years ago by 10 points. No way he comes close to that number in 2020 and Collins loses by 12, especially when rural voters find out Gideon is a liberal from Rhode Island.

Ethan: I have some news for you, Trump won’t win CD2 by 10 again, and Gideon is much more relatable to rural families than you realize.

[Anonymous]

Six months is a long time. I wish the election was next Tuesday.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Six months is a long time. I wish the election was next Tuesday.

FIVE months! Let's keep it real.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://bangordailynews.com/2020/05/28/opinion/contributors/new-poll-shows-gideon-leading-collins-by-9-points/

Ethan: Did you take a look at the new poll on the U.S. Senate race I just sent? It shows U.S. Sen. Susan Collins losing 51 percent to 42 percent to House Speaker Sara Gideon!

Phil: A-yuh. Sobering news for Susan. However, I caution you, my excitable friend, that this is merely a momentary snapshot six months before Election Day.

Ethan: I wish Election Day was today! For our readers, the poll was done by a joint left/right partnership. Commissioned by “Swing Hard. Run Fast. Turn Left!” a decidedly progressive organization I run, but conducted by Victory Geek, a non-partisan data and telecom provider with mostly conservative clients.

Phil: While no one should ever underestimate Susan Collins, the trend in the last few public polls is certainly in the wrong direction for those of us who want to see her re-elected. In March we saw a poll that showed her down 4 points. Two months later, she is now down 9.

Ethan: If I were on Team Collins what I would find most concerning is that Gideon is winning by 20+ points among women and seven points among independents, usually her backstop.

Phil: I saw that. A bigger surprise is that she is losing by 12 points in the 2nd Congressional District. But the reason I reminded you not to get too excited is a number like that will not hold. Donald Trump won northern Maine four years ago by 10 points. No way he comes close to that number in 2020 and Collins loses by 12, especially when rural voters find out Gideon is a liberal from Rhode Island.

Ethan: I have some news for you, Trump won’t win CD2 by 10 again, and Gideon is much more relatable to rural families than you realize.

Maybe these two guys need to do a little research into this group that did the polling.

The polling firm, Victory Geek LLC, has no history of actual previous campaign polling outside of one state legislative race in Illinois.
Victory Geek LLC is run by the owner of an Illinois billboard and storage facility company.
The poll was commissioned by a Maine-based anti-Collins political organization.
The poll inexplicably shows longshot Democratic primary candidate with close ties to the commissioning organization beating Collins, despite only spending $200,000.

About Victory Geek LLC

There is very little information available about the alleged polling firm. Their website, https://victorygeek.com/, provides no contact information or background, and appears to have been abandoned part way through its "devemopment" [sic].

According to LinkedIn, the firm's owner, Bryan Todd, is also the president and owner of Liberty Outdoor Advertising, inc, an Illinois billboard company.

Liberty Outdoor Advertising's website, https://liberty365.com/ , features a link to the Victory Geek website.

https://www.susancollins.com/fake_poll_alert

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Re: Kansas. Current state senate president and Cruella De Ville fan-girl, Susan Wagle, dropped out of the Republican candidate pool today. This almost certainly hands the Republican primary to Kris Kobach. Wagle was co-opting some of the crazies for herself. To be clear, Marshall is just as onerous as the rest of them, but the nuts have gravitated to either to Kobach of Wagle.

This positions Democrat Barbara Bollier for the overall win - granted, in a tight race. COVID-19 could be a factor in swaying older voters to Bollier, especially as Trump’s message has implied that their lives have less value than the economy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Re: Kansas. Current state senate president and Cruella De Ville fan-girl, Susan Wagle, dropped out of the Republican candidate pool today. This almost certainly hands the Republican primary to Kris Kobach. Wagle was co-opting some of the crazies for herself. To be clear, Marshall is just as onerous as the rest of them, but the nuts have gravitated to either to Kobach of Wagle.

This positions Democrat Barbara Bollier for the overall win - granted, in a tight race. COVID-19 could be a factor in swaying older voters to Bollier, especially as Trump’s message has implied that their lives have less value than the economy.

And Bollier's campaign just got another huge boost. The deadline to file has passed and current Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, is not entering the race. The GOP has been lobbying him to enter the race. With his national profile and popularity among Republicans, he would have been the immediate favorite for both the nomination and the election. But he declined to run, which strengthens the nomination for the controversial Kobach who is a much weaker candidate. With the very large Republican slate, the money and support is split between several candidates while Bollier already has the Democratic nom locked up and is outraising the entiring Republican slate. She is definitely favored over all remaining Republicans in the running, and in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat in nearly 100 years.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/06/01/mike-pompeos-not-running-for-senate-in-kansas-heres-who-is/

[Anonymous]

This would return Kansas to the type of politicans who were successful in the 1970's and 1980's. A welcome breath of fresh air.

[Anonymous]

Hickenlooper in a bit of legal trouble and is calling in the big guns.