Biden’s economy

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don’t believe the hype. These numbers were goosed by BLS.

Few outlets bothered parsing the actual data, or those pesky adjustments. Wall Steet tried. A note from Wells Fargo economists wrote about the report: “Seasonal adjustment factors appear to have flattered the headline as smaller-than-usual post-holiday layoffs bolstered the payrolls numbers.” In their typically thoughtful and cautious manner, economists at ISI wrote: “most other labor market indicators are not currently validating the extreme strength in January payrolls…”

You’ve been saying that for about four years.

No actually I have not. I am not stupid not am I a partisan. Many of the initial jobs, however, were just restoring what was lost due to Covid.

That said, its clear they are fudging the numbers. I saw analysis showing that full time jobs are way down, part time jobs are way up and monthly hours worked are down.

It’s ironic that everyone uses the stock market as a proxy for a strong economy when the averages are 100% driven by 7 stocks.

I’ve been bearish for quite a while but my conviction is higher than ever. We are going to see a stock market crash on par with the dotcom / GFC

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don’t believe the hype. These numbers were goosed by BLS.

Few outlets bothered parsing the actual data, or those pesky adjustments. Wall Steet tried. A note from Wells Fargo economists wrote about the report: “Seasonal adjustment factors appear to have flattered the headline as smaller-than-usual post-holiday layoffs bolstered the payrolls numbers.” In their typically thoughtful and cautious manner, economists at ISI wrote: “most other labor market indicators are not currently validating the extreme strength in January payrolls…”

You’ve been saying that for about four years.

No actually I have not. I am not stupid not am I a partisan. Many of the initial jobs, however, were just restoring what was lost due to Covid.

That said, its clear they are fudging the numbers. I saw analysis showing that full time jobs are way down, part time jobs are way up and monthly hours worked are down.

It’s ironic that everyone uses the stock market as a proxy for a strong economy when the averages are 100% driven by 7 stocks.

I’ve been bearish for quite a while but my conviction is higher than ever. We are going to see a stock market crash on par with the dotcom / GFC

Who uses the stock market as the sole barometer of a good economy? It’s a relevant gauge but definitely not the only.

I think people here have given out good data. GDP, jobs, inflation, wage growth, industrial production, etc. These are all performing really really well!

And no the job numbers are not made up. The initial report is an estimate which then gets revised after the state numbers based on actual payrolls come in. It would be obvious if there were mistakes as there are 50 state reports and if a few were fudged it would be clear. The revisions have generally been up, so if you don’t believe the Jan numbers than you should at least believe the December and earlier numbers. Look how good for example the Texas job numbers are, are the republicans there just making those look better to help Biden…lol

[Anonymous]

Imagine where things would be if Iran was NOT producing oil at an all time high. Totally helping keep inflation down. Wonder if that will have other implications for the world?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don’t believe the hype. These numbers were goosed by BLS.

Few outlets bothered parsing the actual data, or those pesky adjustments. Wall Steet tried. A note from Wells Fargo economists wrote about the report: “Seasonal adjustment factors appear to have flattered the headline as smaller-than-usual post-holiday layoffs bolstered the payrolls numbers.” In their typically thoughtful and cautious manner, economists at ISI wrote: “most other labor market indicators are not currently validating the extreme strength in January payrolls…”

You’ve been saying that for about four years.

No actually I have not. I am not stupid not am I a partisan. Many of the initial jobs, however, were just restoring what was lost due to Covid.

That said, its clear they are fudging the numbers. I saw analysis showing that full time jobs are way down, part time jobs are way up and monthly hours worked are down.

It’s ironic that everyone uses the stock market as a proxy for a strong economy when the averages are 100% driven by 7 stocks.

I’ve been bearish for quite a while but my conviction is higher than ever. We are going to see a stock market crash on par with the dotcom / GFC

The bolded has been the trend in corporate American for at least 20 years. That isn't something a president can control.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Imagine where things would be if Iran was NOT producing oil at an all time high. Totally helping keep inflation down. Wonder if that will have other implications for the world?

The US is producing at an all time high. What is your point? Iran needs the sales to support their economy. They have no other options.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don’t believe the hype. These numbers were goosed by BLS.

Few outlets bothered parsing the actual data, or those pesky adjustments. Wall Steet tried. A note from Wells Fargo economists wrote about the report: “Seasonal adjustment factors appear to have flattered the headline as smaller-than-usual post-holiday layoffs bolstered the payrolls numbers.” In their typically thoughtful and cautious manner, economists at ISI wrote: “most other labor market indicators are not currently validating the extreme strength in January payrolls…”

You’ve been saying that for about four years.

No actually I have not. I am not stupid not am I a partisan. Many of the initial jobs, however, were just restoring what was lost due to Covid.

That said, its clear they are fudging the numbers. I saw analysis showing that full time jobs are way down, part time jobs are way up and monthly hours worked are down.

It’s ironic that everyone uses the stock market as a proxy for a strong economy when the averages are 100% driven by 7 stocks.

I’ve been bearish for quite a while but my conviction is higher than ever. We are going to see a stock market crash on par with the dotcom / GFC

Who uses the stock market as the sole barometer of a good economy? It’s a relevant gauge but definitely not the only.

I think people here have given out good data. GDP, jobs, inflation, wage growth, industrial production, etc. These are all performing really really well!

And no the job numbers are not made up. The initial report is an estimate which then gets revised after the state numbers based on actual payrolls come in. It would be obvious if there were mistakes as there are 50 state reports and if a few were fudged it would be clear. The revisions have generally been up, so if you don’t believe the Jan numbers than you should at least believe the December and earlier numbers. Look how good for example the Texas job numbers are, are the republicans there just making those look better to help Biden…lol

Posters ON THIS THREAD are using the stock market as an indicator.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Imagine where things would be if Iran was NOT producing oil at an all time high. Totally helping keep inflation down. Wonder if that will have other implications for the world?

The US is producing at an all time high. What is your point? Iran needs the sales to support their economy. They have no other options.

Exactly. Carbon Joe has let it go. It’s awesome. Trump won’t be able to touch those numbers. Keep it up!

[Anonymous]

There is also a rational explanation why the numbers can be decent but Biden’s ratings are in the dumpster. For most folks THEY earned their raise but inflation was done unto them by “evil rotten” forces. People don’t connect the dots. They just remember when x cost y and now it costs y plus. Inflation also hurts everyone. Unemployment at its worst still only hits a small part of the workforce. Inflation hits everyone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don’t believe the hype. These numbers were goosed by BLS.

Few outlets bothered parsing the actual data, or those pesky adjustments. Wall Steet tried. A note from Wells Fargo economists wrote about the report: “Seasonal adjustment factors appear to have flattered the headline as smaller-than-usual post-holiday layoffs bolstered the payrolls numbers.” In their typically thoughtful and cautious manner, economists at ISI wrote: “most other labor market indicators are not currently validating the extreme strength in January payrolls…”

You’ve been saying that for about four years.

No actually I have not. I am not stupid not am I a partisan. Many of the initial jobs, however, were just restoring what was lost due to Covid.

That said, its clear they are fudging the numbers. I saw analysis showing that full time jobs are way down, part time jobs are way up and monthly hours worked are down.

It’s ironic that everyone uses the stock market as a proxy for a strong economy when the averages are 100% driven by 7 stocks.

I’ve been bearish for quite a while but my conviction is higher than ever. We are going to see a stock market crash on par with the dotcom / GFC

Who uses the stock market as the sole barometer of a good economy? It’s a relevant gauge but definitely not the only.

I think people here have given out good data. GDP, jobs, inflation, wage growth, industrial production, etc. These are all performing really really well!

And no the job numbers are not made up. The initial report is an estimate which then gets revised after the state numbers based on actual payrolls come in. It would be obvious if there were mistakes as there are 50 state reports and if a few were fudged it would be clear. The revisions have generally been up, so if you don’t believe the Jan numbers than you should at least believe the December and earlier numbers. Look how good for example the Texas job numbers are, are the republicans there just making those look better to help Biden…lol

Posters ON THIS THREAD are using the stock market as an indicator.

We do that because Trump did that every single day of his presidency.

[Anonymous]

Biden’s economy is so terrible that the share of households expecting their financial situation to improve over the next year just hit the highest levels since September 2020, and the second-highest since the start of COVID. From the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations:

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don’t believe the hype. These numbers were goosed by BLS.

Few outlets bothered parsing the actual data, or those pesky adjustments. Wall Steet tried. A note from Wells Fargo economists wrote about the report: “Seasonal adjustment factors appear to have flattered the headline as smaller-than-usual post-holiday layoffs bolstered the payrolls numbers.” In their typically thoughtful and cautious manner, economists at ISI wrote: “most other labor market indicators are not currently validating the extreme strength in January payrolls…”

You’ve been saying that for about four years.

No actually I have not. I am not stupid not am I a partisan. Many of the initial jobs, however, were just restoring what was lost due to Covid.

That said, its clear they are fudging the numbers. I saw analysis showing that full time jobs are way down, part time jobs are way up and monthly hours worked are down.

It’s ironic that everyone uses the stock market as a proxy for a strong economy when the averages are 100% driven by 7 stocks.

I’ve been bearish for quite a while but my conviction is higher than ever. We are going to see a stock market crash on par with the dotcom / GFC

Who uses the stock market as the sole barometer of a good economy? It’s a relevant gauge but definitely not the only.

I think people here have given out good data. GDP, jobs, inflation, wage growth, industrial production, etc. These are all performing really really well!

And no the job numbers are not made up. The initial report is an estimate which then gets revised after the state numbers based on actual payrolls come in. It would be obvious if there were mistakes as there are 50 state reports and if a few were fudged it would be clear. The revisions have generally been up, so if you don’t believe the Jan numbers than you should at least believe the December and earlier numbers. Look how good for example the Texas job numbers are, are the republicans there just making those look better to help Biden…lol

Posters ON THIS THREAD are using the stock market as an indicator.

Trump used it all the time, and posters on this board consistently said stick market =/= economy

Most who are using it now are using it mockingly, or at least I know I am. The economy has issues. We all know that. Most of us also know that it would be much worse (ie like other countries) without the steps taken by this Administration, which learned from the clean-up after W left office.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don’t believe the hype. These numbers were goosed by BLS.

Few outlets bothered parsing the actual data, or those pesky adjustments. Wall Steet tried. A note from Wells Fargo economists wrote about the report: “Seasonal adjustment factors appear to have flattered the headline as smaller-than-usual post-holiday layoffs bolstered the payrolls numbers.” In their typically thoughtful and cautious manner, economists at ISI wrote: “most other labor market indicators are not currently validating the extreme strength in January payrolls…”

You’ve been saying that for about four years.

No actually I have not. I am not stupid not am I a partisan. Many of the initial jobs, however, were just restoring what was lost due to Covid.

That said, its clear they are fudging the numbers. I saw analysis showing that full time jobs are way down, part time jobs are way up and monthly hours worked are down.

It’s ironic that everyone uses the stock market as a proxy for a strong economy when the averages are 100% driven by 7 stocks.

I’ve been bearish for quite a while but my conviction is higher than ever. We are going to see a stock market crash on par with the dotcom / GFC

Who uses the stock market as the sole barometer of a good economy? It’s a relevant gauge but definitely not the only.

I think people here have given out good data. GDP, jobs, inflation, wage growth, industrial production, etc. These are all performing really really well!

And no the job numbers are not made up. The initial report is an estimate which then gets revised after the state numbers based on actual payrolls come in. It would be obvious if there were mistakes as there are 50 state reports and if a few were fudged it would be clear. The revisions have generally been up, so if you don’t believe the Jan numbers than you should at least believe the December and earlier numbers. Look how good for example the Texas job numbers are, are the republicans there just making those look better to help Biden…lol

Posters ON THIS THREAD are using the stock market as an indicator.

Trump used it all the time, and posters on this board consistently said stick market =/= economy

Most who are using it now are using it mockingly, or at least I know I am. The economy has issues. We all know that. Most of us also know that it would be much worse (ie like other countries) without the steps taken by this Administration, which learned from the clean-up after W left office.

+1
And I never see Republicans addressing the actual problems with the economy. They recoil violently from ideas like capping CEO compensation. The stock market is one measure of the economy and it’s doing gangbusters under Biden, but I see the Biden administration trying to do a lot for the millions of non-CEO people and I know we’ll never see that from a Republican.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don’t believe the hype. These numbers were goosed by BLS.

Few outlets bothered parsing the actual data, or those pesky adjustments. Wall Steet tried. A note from Wells Fargo economists wrote about the report: “Seasonal adjustment factors appear to have flattered the headline as smaller-than-usual post-holiday layoffs bolstered the payrolls numbers.” In their typically thoughtful and cautious manner, economists at ISI wrote: “most other labor market indicators are not currently validating the extreme strength in January payrolls…”

You’ve been saying that for about four years.

No actually I have not. I am not stupid not am I a partisan. Many of the initial jobs, however, were just restoring what was lost due to Covid.

That said, its clear they are fudging the numbers. I saw analysis showing that full time jobs are way down, part time jobs are way up and monthly hours worked are down.

It’s ironic that everyone uses the stock market as a proxy for a strong economy when the averages are 100% driven by 7 stocks.

I’ve been bearish for quite a while but my conviction is higher than ever. We are going to see a stock market crash on par with the dotcom / GFC

Who uses the stock market as the sole barometer of a good economy? It’s a relevant gauge but definitely not the only.

I think people here have given out good data. GDP, jobs, inflation, wage growth, industrial production, etc. These are all performing really really well!

And no the job numbers are not made up. The initial report is an estimate which then gets revised after the state numbers based on actual payrolls come in. It would be obvious if there were mistakes as there are 50 state reports and if a few were fudged it would be clear. The revisions have generally been up, so if you don’t believe the Jan numbers than you should at least believe the December and earlier numbers. Look how good for example the Texas job numbers are, are the republicans there just making those look better to help Biden…lol

Posters ON THIS THREAD are using the stock market as an indicator.

Trump used it all the time, and posters on this board consistently said stick market =/= economy

Most who are using it now are using it mockingly, or at least I know I am. The economy has issues. We all know that. Most of us also know that it would be much worse (ie like other countries) without the steps taken by this Administration, which learned from the clean-up after W left office.

+1
And I never see Republicans addressing the actual problems with the economy. They recoil violently from ideas like capping CEO compensation. The stock market is one measure of the economy and it’s doing gangbusters under Biden, but I see the Biden administration trying to do a lot for the millions of non-CEO people and I know we’ll never see that from a Republican.

Methods for setting CEO compensation are self-serving and deserving of ridicule. But the numbers tell us that drastically reducing a CEO's comp and redistributing the proceeds to employees would rarely result in more than $5 or so more per week per employee. This would have zero effect on the economy.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There is also a rational explanation why the numbers can be decent but Biden’s ratings are in the dumpster. For most folks THEY earned their raise but inflation was done unto them by “evil rotten” forces. People don’t connect the dots. They just remember when x cost y and now it costs y plus. Inflation also hurts everyone. Unemployment at its worst still only hits a small part of the workforce. Inflation hits everyone.

People talking about "I remember when x cost $y" always remind me of old people talking about when a loaf of bread cost a nickel. Yeah, and nickels were much harder to come by than they are now. What's your point, grandpa?