I think the bubble is popping.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some folks are desperately waiting for bubble to pop but its not happening.

I wonder how many of the people are the same year after year? I'd wager most people that were waiting for a crash gave up and bought what they could afford or moved out of the area. I'm sure there are at least one or two people on here that have been waiting for the big crash for 5+ years and not bought though.

Some, but just remember that the population of the Washington Metro region is still expanding and it is growing faster than the housing inventory anywhere EXCEPT the exurbs. So, there is no bubble. There is just a situation where you have more buyers than there are available properties and that is not going to change; it can't change as long as people keep moving into the area faster than people are leaving the area.

Those who are trying wait for a bubble are just going to find that they are only delaying the inevitable. They will ultimately have to decide to stay where they are, spend more than they want to, or get less than they hoped for.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some folks are desperately waiting for bubble to pop but its not happening.

I wonder how many of the people are the same year after year? I'd wager most people that were waiting for a crash gave up and bought what they could afford or moved out of the area. I'm sure there are at least one or two people on here that have been waiting for the big crash for 5+ years and not bought though.

Some, but just remember that the population of the Washington Metro region is still expanding and it is growing faster than the housing inventory anywhere EXCEPT the exurbs. So, there is no bubble. There is just a situation where you have more buyers than there are available properties and that is not going to change; it can't change as long as people keep moving into the area faster than people are leaving the area.

Those who are trying wait for a bubble are just going to find that they are only delaying the inevitable. They will ultimately have to decide to stay where they are, spend more than they want to, or get less than they hoped for.

Yes there is a bubble. If interest rates were market based they would be 7 percent minimum. The Fed has pumped the bubble so huge in stocks and housing that now they can’t even raise rates 1 or 2 percent without kicking the foundation out from and popping the whole bloated and misallocated mess. They just talk about tightening but will never do it. Savings is the proper foundation of a healthy economy. We have replaced saving with a printing press. It’s a ticking time bomb.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some folks are desperately waiting for bubble to pop but its not happening.

I wonder how many of the people are the same year after year? I'd wager most people that were waiting for a crash gave up and bought what they could afford or moved out of the area. I'm sure there are at least one or two people on here that have been waiting for the big crash for 5+ years and not bought though.

Some, but just remember that the population of the Washington Metro region is still expanding and it is growing faster than the housing inventory anywhere EXCEPT the exurbs. So, there is no bubble. There is just a situation where you have more buyers than there are available properties and that is not going to change; it can't change as long as people keep moving into the area faster than people are leaving the area.

Those who are trying wait for a bubble are just going to find that they are only delaying the inevitable. They will ultimately have to decide to stay where they are, spend more than they want to, or get less than they hoped for.

Yes there is a bubble. If interest rates were market based they would be 7 percent minimum. The Fed has pumped the bubble so huge in stocks and housing that now they can’t even raise rates 1 or 2 percent without kicking the foundation out from and popping the whole bloated and misallocated mess. They just talk about tightening but will never do it. Savings is the proper foundation of a healthy economy. We have replaced saving with a printing press. It’s a ticking time bomb.

Quite the opposite, you've got the mechanics all backward. If the Fed didn't buy up assets like stocks and housing, then the pandemic would have made those assets much more risky. That would have led to a flight to lower-risk assets (Treasuries), pushing interest rates even lower. In much of the developed world, you can get things like home loans for even cheaper than you can get them in the U.S., even for 0 interest. If the Fed had not been very active in setting up a backstop at the outset of the pandemic, interest rates likely would have collapsed even further, and there's a good chance that we would be in a deflationary spiral that could be very damaging and last many years (see, e.g. Japan).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some folks are desperately waiting for bubble to pop but its not happening.

I wonder how many of the people are the same year after year? I'd wager most people that were waiting for a crash gave up and bought what they could afford or moved out of the area. I'm sure there are at least one or two people on here that have been waiting for the big crash for 5+ years and not bought though.

Some, but just remember that the population of the Washington Metro region is still expanding and it is growing faster than the housing inventory anywhere EXCEPT the exurbs. So, there is no bubble. There is just a situation where you have more buyers than there are available properties and that is not going to change; it can't change as long as people keep moving into the area faster than people are leaving the area.

Those who are trying wait for a bubble are just going to find that they are only delaying the inevitable. They will ultimately have to decide to stay where they are, spend more than they want to, or get less than they hoped for.

Yes there is a bubble. If interest rates were market based they would be 7 percent minimum. The Fed has pumped the bubble so huge in stocks and housing that now they can’t even raise rates 1 or 2 percent without kicking the foundation out from and popping the whole bloated and misallocated mess. They just talk about tightening but will never do it. Savings is the proper foundation of a healthy economy. We have replaced saving with a printing press. It’s a ticking time bomb.

Quite the opposite, you've got the mechanics all backward. If the Fed didn't buy up assets like stocks and housing, then the pandemic would have made those assets much more risky. That would have led to a flight to lower-risk assets (Treasuries), pushing interest rates even lower. In much of the developed world, you can get things like home loans for even cheaper than you can get them in the U.S., even for 0 interest. If the Fed had not been very active in setting up a backstop at the outset of the pandemic, interest rates likely would have collapsed even further, and there's a good chance that we would be in a deflationary spiral that could be very damaging and last many years (see, e.g. Japan).

Sigh. People who don't understand Economics (and financial models) should generally try and not put their foot where it doesn't...

[Anonymous]

Is it still popping? It's been a couple months now. Will it pop in March of next year? What about June?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some folks are desperately waiting for bubble to pop but its not happening.

I wonder how many of the people are the same year after year? I'd wager most people that were waiting for a crash gave up and bought what they could afford or moved out of the area. I'm sure there are at least one or two people on here that have been waiting for the big crash for 5+ years and not bought though.

Some, but just remember that the population of the Washington Metro region is still expanding and it is growing faster than the housing inventory anywhere EXCEPT the exurbs. So, there is no bubble. There is just a situation where you have more buyers than there are available properties and that is not going to change; it can't change as long as people keep moving into the area faster than people are leaving the area.

Those who are trying wait for a bubble are just going to find that they are only delaying the inevitable. They will ultimately have to decide to stay where they are, spend more than they want to, or get less than they hoped for.

Yes there is a bubble. If interest rates were market based they would be 7 percent minimum. The Fed has pumped the bubble so huge in stocks and housing that now they can’t even raise rates 1 or 2 percent without kicking the foundation out from and popping the whole bloated and misallocated mess. They just talk about tightening but will never do it. Savings is the proper foundation of a healthy economy. We have replaced saving with a printing press. It’s a ticking time bomb.

Quite the opposite, you've got the mechanics all backward. If the Fed didn't buy up assets like stocks and housing, then the pandemic would have made those assets much more risky. That would have led to a flight to lower-risk assets (Treasuries), pushing interest rates even lower. In much of the developed world, you can get things like home loans for even cheaper than you can get them in the U.S., even for 0 interest. If the Fed had not been very active in setting up a backstop at the outset of the pandemic, interest rates likely would have collapsed even further, and there's a good chance that we would be in a deflationary spiral that could be very damaging and last many years (see, e.g. Japan).

Sigh. People who don't understand Economics (and financial models) should generally try and not put their foot where it doesn't...

Well, since your response was so detailed and backed up by data and citations, it is hard to argue with you.

[Anonymous]

I think at Beach anyhow rising flood insurance costs, property taxes and return to work in 2022 and 2023 will make sales slow down. But close in homes good schools not really

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is it still popping? It's been a couple months now. Will it pop in March of next year? What about June?

We don't know how far the Fed can kick the can down the road. The PP is right, it's not just a real estate bubble, it's an everything bubble and who knows how it will play out. It's sort of like climate change where everyone knows its coming, the signs are all there but it's not til its having effects that everyone is like "oh". I'm staying in my starter home for now, there's just no way I want to be owing huge amounts of money with the unknown that is approaching. Some people on this board are taking huge jumbo loans for homes we all agree are overpriced for what they are. Good luck to all of you when we see how this plays out, Biden will try to kick it to the next admin if he can keep it going that long.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is it still popping? It's been a couple months now. Will it pop in March of next year? What about June?

We don't know how far the Fed can kick the can down the road. The PP is right, it's not just a real estate bubble, it's an everything bubble and who knows how it will play out. It's sort of like climate change where everyone knows its coming, the signs are all there but it's not til its having effects that everyone is like "oh". I'm staying in my starter home for now, there's just no way I want to be owing huge amounts of money with the unknown that is approaching. Some people on this board are taking huge jumbo loans for homes we all agree are overpriced for what they are. Good luck to all of you when we see how this plays out, Biden will try to kick it to the next admin if he can keep it going that long.

Prices are determined by willingness to pay in the market. If "we all" agreed that they were overpriced, then the prices wouldn't be what they are. So clearly we don't all agree.

You haven't articulated this, but I think you have in your mind a situation where high inflation forces the Fed to raise the interest rate it charges banks and take other steps to cool the economy, leading to a crash in asset prices. Then you should also know that there's a very good reason why most economists haven't expressed much concern about inflation--it's still being driven by only a small number of goods with unique supply issues. If you take a look at this chart from the Cleveland Fed, you can see that prices for the median good in the CPI basket are actually increasing *more slowly* than they were before the pandemic. This suggests that inflation is not being driven by labor shortages or other broad-based issues that would have the potential to accelerate and require intervention.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/median-cpi.aspx

[Anonymous]

Since everyone else is throwing out random examples without any evidence, the market in maryland seems to be slowing in AA County.
Lots of houses sitting again with some price reductions. The interest rates are rising whcih usually sparks some people to rush to buy before they go up again, but it's not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Since everyone else is throwing out random examples without any evidence, the market in maryland seems to be slowing in AA County.
Lots of houses sitting again with some price reductions. The interest rates are rising whcih usually sparks some people to rush to buy before they go up again, but it's not.

It's almost like these are seasonal trends that happen every year.

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/917407.page#18280089
https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/918343.page#18307864

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is it still popping? It's been a couple months now. Will it pop in March of next year? What about June?

We don't know how far the Fed can kick the can down the road. The PP is right, it's not just a real estate bubble, it's an everything bubble and who knows how it will play out. It's sort of like climate change where everyone knows its coming, the signs are all there but it's not til its having effects that everyone is like "oh". I'm staying in my starter home for now, there's just no way I want to be owing huge amounts of money with the unknown that is approaching. Some people on this board are taking huge jumbo loans for homes we all agree are overpriced for what they are. Good luck to all of you when we see how this plays out, Biden will try to kick it to the next admin if he can keep it going that long.

Prices are determined by willingness to pay in the market. If "we all" agreed that they were overpriced, then the prices wouldn't be what they are. So clearly we don't all agree.

You haven't articulated this, but I think you have in your mind a situation where high inflation forces the Fed to raise the interest rate it charges banks and take other steps to cool the economy, leading to a crash in asset prices. Then you should also know that there's a very good reason why most economists haven't expressed much concern about inflation--it's still being driven by only a small number of goods with unique supply issues. If you take a look at this chart from the Cleveland Fed, you can see that prices for the median good in the CPI basket are actually increasing *more slowly* than they were before the pandemic. This suggests that inflation is not being driven by labor shortages or other broad-based issues that would have the potential to accelerate and require intervention.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/median-cpi.aspx

Low interest rates make housing "affordable" and equity investments unavoidable. Wait until the rates increase.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is it still popping? It's been a couple months now. Will it pop in March of next year? What about June?

We don't know how far the Fed can kick the can down the road. The PP is right, it's not just a real estate bubble, it's an everything bubble and who knows how it will play out. It's sort of like climate change where everyone knows its coming, the signs are all there but it's not til its having effects that everyone is like "oh". I'm staying in my starter home for now, there's just no way I want to be owing huge amounts of money with the unknown that is approaching. Some people on this board are taking huge jumbo loans for homes we all agree are overpriced for what they are. Good luck to all of you when we see how this plays out, Biden will try to kick it to the next admin if he can keep it going that long.

Prices are determined by willingness to pay in the market. If "we all" agreed that they were overpriced, then the prices wouldn't be what they are. So clearly we don't all agree.

You haven't articulated this, but I think you have in your mind a situation where high inflation forces the Fed to raise the interest rate it charges banks and take other steps to cool the economy, leading to a crash in asset prices. Then you should also know that there's a very good reason why most economists haven't expressed much concern about inflation--it's still being driven by only a small number of goods with unique supply issues. If you take a look at this chart from the Cleveland Fed, you can see that prices for the median good in the CPI basket are actually increasing *more slowly* than they were before the pandemic. This suggests that inflation is not being driven by labor shortages or other broad-based issues that would have the potential to accelerate and require intervention.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/median-cpi.aspx

Low interest rates make housing "affordable" and equity investments unavoidable. Wait until the rates increase.

People have been posting this since 2010. Just keep waiting. It might even happen in our lifetimes. Or you might die before it happens.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is it still popping? It's been a couple months now. Will it pop in March of next year? What about June?

We don't know how far the Fed can kick the can down the road. The PP is right, it's not just a real estate bubble, it's an everything bubble and who knows how it will play out. It's sort of like climate change where everyone knows its coming, the signs are all there but it's not til its having effects that everyone is like "oh". I'm staying in my starter home for now, there's just no way I want to be owing huge amounts of money with the unknown that is approaching. Some people on this board are taking huge jumbo loans for homes we all agree are overpriced for what they are. Good luck to all of you when we see how this plays out, Biden will try to kick it to the next admin if he can keep it going that long.

Prices are determined by willingness to pay in the market. If "we all" agreed that they were overpriced, then the prices wouldn't be what they are. So clearly we don't all agree.

You haven't articulated this, but I think you have in your mind a situation where high inflation forces the Fed to raise the interest rate it charges banks and take other steps to cool the economy, leading to a crash in asset prices. Then you should also know that there's a very good reason why most economists haven't expressed much concern about inflation--it's still being driven by only a small number of goods with unique supply issues. If you take a look at this chart from the Cleveland Fed, you can see that prices for the median good in the CPI basket are actually increasing *more slowly* than they were before the pandemic. This suggests that inflation is not being driven by labor shortages or other broad-based issues that would have the potential to accelerate and require intervention.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/median-cpi.aspx

Low interest rates make housing "affordable" and equity investments unavoidable. Wait until the rates increase.

People have been posting this since 2010. Just keep waiting. It might even happen in our lifetimes. Or you might die before it happens.

I guess you haven't seen what's happened in the last 2 years which is entirely new and unique. Just keep closing your eyes and hoping we continue on this path. Sure, I hope we do too!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is it still popping? It's been a couple months now. Will it pop in March of next year? What about June?

We don't know how far the Fed can kick the can down the road. The PP is right, it's not just a real estate bubble, it's an everything bubble and who knows how it will play out. It's sort of like climate change where everyone knows its coming, the signs are all there but it's not til its having effects that everyone is like "oh". I'm staying in my starter home for now, there's just no way I want to be owing huge amounts of money with the unknown that is approaching. Some people on this board are taking huge jumbo loans for homes we all agree are overpriced for what they are. Good luck to all of you when we see how this plays out, Biden will try to kick it to the next admin if he can keep it going that long.

Prices are determined by willingness to pay in the market. If "we all" agreed that they were overpriced, then the prices wouldn't be what they are. So clearly we don't all agree.

You haven't articulated this, but I think you have in your mind a situation where high inflation forces the Fed to raise the interest rate it charges banks and take other steps to cool the economy, leading to a crash in asset prices. Then you should also know that there's a very good reason why most economists haven't expressed much concern about inflation--it's still being driven by only a small number of goods with unique supply issues. If you take a look at this chart from the Cleveland Fed, you can see that prices for the median good in the CPI basket are actually increasing *more slowly* than they were before the pandemic. This suggests that inflation is not being driven by labor shortages or other broad-based issues that would have the potential to accelerate and require intervention.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/median-cpi.aspx

Low interest rates make housing "affordable" and equity investments unavoidable. Wait until the rates increase.

OK, but rates don't just fluctuate willy nilly. You've yet to explain why you think rates will eventually be forced to increase. Without that, your point is moot.

Recent research strongly suggests that a huge chunk of the persistent decline in interest rates since the 1980s is a natural result of the aging of the population. We know that the population of the U.S. will continue to age, so we also know that this will continue to push down interest rates. For example:

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/4-Thwaites-demographic-trends-and-the-real-interest-rate.pdf
https://callumjones.github.io/files/demo.pdf