Reply to I think the bubble is popping.

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Is it still popping? It's been a couple months now. Will it pop in March of next year? What about June?[/quote]

We don't know how far the Fed can kick the can down the road. The PP is right, it's not just a real estate bubble, it's an everything bubble and who knows how it will play out. It's sort of like climate change where everyone knows its coming, the signs are all there but it's not til its having effects that everyone is like "oh". I'm staying in my starter home for now, there's just no way I want to be owing huge amounts of money with the unknown that is approaching. Some people on this board are taking huge jumbo loans for homes we all agree are overpriced for what they are. Good luck to all of you when we see how this plays out, Biden will try to kick it to the next admin if he can keep it going that long. [/quote]

Prices are determined by willingness to pay in the market. If "we all" agreed that they were overpriced, then the prices wouldn't be what they are.  So clearly we don't all agree.

You haven't articulated this, but I think you have in your mind a situation where high inflation forces the Fed to raise the interest rate it charges banks and take other steps to cool the economy, leading to a crash in asset prices.  Then you should also know that there's a very good reason why most economists haven't expressed much concern about inflation--it's still being driven by only a small number of goods with unique supply issues.  If you take a look at this chart from the Cleveland Fed, you can see that prices for the median good in the CPI basket are actually increasing *more slowly* than they were before the pandemic.  This suggests that inflation is not being driven by labor shortages or other broad-based issues that would have the potential to accelerate and require intervention.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/median-cpi.aspx[/quote]
Low interest rates make housing "affordable" and equity investments unavoidable. Wait until the rates increase.

[/quote]

OK, but rates don't just fluctuate willy nilly.  You've yet to explain why you think rates will eventually be forced to increase.  Without that, your point is moot.

Recent research strongly suggests that a huge chunk of the persistent decline in interest rates since the 1980s is a natural result of the aging of the population.  We know that the population of the U.S. will continue to age, so we also know that this will continue to push down interest rates.  For example:

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/4-Thwaites-demographic-trends-and-the-real-interest-rate.pdf
https://callumjones.github.io/files/demo.pdf[/quote]

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