I think the bubble is popping.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Oh, we're most definitely in a housing (and others) bubble, not withstanding all this drivel from current owners.

Is it popping yet? Well, that's somewhat debatable, but what's not debatable is that it will pop. And very soon, if it hasn't started already.

All this talk from people that, if you wait for xx amount of time, you're just throwing money away on rent is just that. Talk. Rent vs Own math is very very heavily skewed towards renting right now and that is always the sign of a bubble top. I can rent a house in prime time locations across the country for way less than it'll cost to buy the same house. I can do that, live in the same exact house as the owners, and invest the difference. But wait!! You won't build "equity" and you're throwing money away on rent!

No I'm not. A house is an asset just like stocks, bonds, fine art, whatever, except it has a very high carrying cost. One of the worst investments. If you can buy it at a price where the rent/buy ratio works, THEN it is a good investment, because you can generate positive cash flow, just like buying a business. Do you see Warren Buffett going out and buying mansions right now, even though he could buy quite a few and not even notice the difference in his account? No. Do you see real estate "investors" buying up houses right now, because apparently they are such a great deal and will continue going up? No. Sam Zeil, one of the most successful RE investors is liquidating his RE portfolio. So is Apollo. So is Blackrock, to a certain degree. When these investors can't buy properties at a price where it will generate a positive cash flow, they know it's time to sell.

And you guys...buy buy buy.

I'm an RE investor as well, and I'm liquidating my properties in several states as we speak. There is no way my cash flow (and all my properties are positive cash flow) will generate these kinds of returns without waiting for many decades. There are many many more ways to make money/counter inflation than betting on continued RE appreciation. That ship sailed with the end of COVID.

Merck just did a very successful trial of an oral COVID treatment. This time next year, nobody's gonna be worried that they are gonna die of COVID (not that they are now, except for some weirdos). Your guess is as good as mine as to what that will do to RE prices.

Most people here are talking about buying their own homes, not investment properties. We bought in August and no regrets. LOVE our neighborhood. House has so much more space than our apt that cost a couple hundred less and everything is just nicer. Our neighbors are absolutely lovely. Moving was awful though and we won't do it again until we absolutely have to. Which means we will be here a while. So yeah, if it was just a question of where do we put $2500 a month? Sure maybe stocks are better. But we need a place to live and it's either $2300 in rent that will increase every year for an apt or $2600 PITI plus maintenance for a much bigger house in the neighborhood where we want our child to go to school and grow up and have a stable life.

You're missing the point.

Just because you bought it when you did, and that you're ok with it, doesn't imply that asset valuations are not elevated. And I repeat, you can consider it "home" or whatever, it is still an asset and is and was, always valued like an asset.

Hint: Why do you think they are not building millions more homes as we speak? Because...commodity prices are elevated as well. Lumber has come down to pre-pandemic levels, but there several other commodities and supply chain issues that are still relevant. That is causing RE prices to levitate. But that won't last. Never has, never will. Commodities will come down, either willingly or due to an "event". Supply chain issues will be resolved one or another. Our country cannot survive if we don't solve this. So if we have to go to a war footing or an actual war, to solve this, we will.

BS, there is a lot more to this than commodities, and you know it. And yes, the fact that I live in my "asset" as you call it does make a difference, since I need a place to live. The opportunity cost of putting my money into a mortgage payment is different if it will go into rent otherwise. In some cases rent to buy does favor renting, but rarely so when you own it for a long time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Oh, we're most definitely in a housing (and others) bubble, not withstanding all this drivel from current owners.

Is it popping yet? Well, that's somewhat debatable, but what's not debatable is that it will pop. And very soon, if it hasn't started already.

All this talk from people that, if you wait for xx amount of time, you're just throwing money away on rent is just that. Talk. Rent vs Own math is very very heavily skewed towards renting right now and that is always the sign of a bubble top. I can rent a house in prime time locations across the country for way less than it'll cost to buy the same house. I can do that, live in the same exact house as the owners, and invest the difference. But wait!! You won't build "equity" and you're throwing money away on rent!

No I'm not. A house is an asset just like stocks, bonds, fine art, whatever, except it has a very high carrying cost. One of the worst investments. If you can buy it at a price where the rent/buy ratio works, THEN it is a good investment, because you can generate positive cash flow, just like buying a business. Do you see Warren Buffett going out and buying mansions right now, even though he could buy quite a few and not even notice the difference in his account? No. Do you see real estate "investors" buying up houses right now, because apparently they are such a great deal and will continue going up? No. Sam Zeil, one of the most successful RE investors is liquidating his RE portfolio. So is Apollo. So is Blackrock, to a certain degree. When these investors can't buy properties at a price where it will generate a positive cash flow, they know it's time to sell.

And you guys...buy buy buy.

I'm an RE investor as well, and I'm liquidating my properties in several states as we speak. There is no way my cash flow (and all my properties are positive cash flow) will generate these kinds of returns without waiting for many decades. There are many many more ways to make money/counter inflation than betting on continued RE appreciation. That ship sailed with the end of COVID.

Merck just did a very successful trial of an oral COVID treatment. This time next year, nobody's gonna be worried that they are gonna die of COVID (not that they are now, except for some weirdos). Your guess is as good as mine as to what that will do to RE prices.

Most people here are talking about buying their own homes, not investment properties. We bought in August and no regrets. LOVE our neighborhood. House has so much more space than our apt that cost a couple hundred less and everything is just nicer. Our neighbors are absolutely lovely. Moving was awful though and we won't do it again until we absolutely have to. Which means we will be here a while. So yeah, if it was just a question of where do we put $2500 a month? Sure maybe stocks are better. But we need a place to live and it's either $2300 in rent that will increase every year for an apt or $2600 PITI plus maintenance for a much bigger house in the neighborhood where we want our child to go to school and grow up and have a stable life.

You're missing the point.

Just because you bought it when you did, and that you're ok with it, doesn't imply that asset valuations are not elevated. And I repeat, you can consider it "home" or whatever, it is still an asset and is and was, always valued like an asset.

Hint: Why do you think they are not building millions more homes as we speak? Because...commodity prices are elevated as well. Lumber has come down to pre-pandemic levels, but there several other commodities and supply chain issues that are still relevant. That is causing RE prices to levitate. But that won't last. Never has, never will. Commodities will come down, either willingly or due to an "event". Supply chain issues will be resolved one or another. Our country cannot survive if we don't solve this. So if we have to go to a war footing or an actual war, to solve this, we will.

BS, there is a lot more to this than commodities, and you know it. And yes, the fact that I live in my "asset" as you call it does make a difference, since I need a place to live. The opportunity cost of putting my money into a mortgage payment is different if it will go into rent otherwise. In some cases rent to buy does favor renting, but rarely so when you own it for a long time.

Ok. I'll play along. Go ahead, explain "the more to this" part.

Yes, you do need a place to live, but it's absolutely a sane decision to continue renting (and it's not throwing money away) if the PITI payment is $5K, and the house will rent for less than $3K. And $K in payment isn't even expensive for this area, yet the number of people who will pay $3-4K in rent is fairly small.

[Anonymous]

PP here. And I'll add that with the reduction in mortgage interest deduction to $750K and with the SALT cap at $10K, the numbers for owning look way worse than pre-2018 levels. And yet, prices went up. Exponentially. If that aint a bubble, I don't know what is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Oh, we're most definitely in a housing (and others) bubble, not withstanding all this drivel from current owners.

Is it popping yet? Well, that's somewhat debatable, but what's not debatable is that it will pop. And very soon, if it hasn't started already.

All this talk from people that, if you wait for xx amount of time, you're just throwing money away on rent is just that. Talk. Rent vs Own math is very very heavily skewed towards renting right now and that is always the sign of a bubble top. I can rent a house in prime time locations across the country for way less than it'll cost to buy the same house. I can do that, live in the same exact house as the owners, and invest the difference. But wait!! You won't build "equity" and you're throwing money away on rent!

No I'm not. A house is an asset just like stocks, bonds, fine art, whatever, except it has a very high carrying cost. One of the worst investments. If you can buy it at a price where the rent/buy ratio works, THEN it is a good investment, because you can generate positive cash flow, just like buying a business. Do you see Warren Buffett going out and buying mansions right now, even though he could buy quite a few and not even notice the difference in his account? No. Do you see real estate "investors" buying up houses right now, because apparently they are such a great deal and will continue going up? No. Sam Zeil, one of the most successful RE investors is liquidating his RE portfolio. So is Apollo. So is Blackrock, to a certain degree. When these investors can't buy properties at a price where it will generate a positive cash flow, they know it's time to sell.

And you guys...buy buy buy.

I'm an RE investor as well, and I'm liquidating my properties in several states as we speak. There is no way my cash flow (and all my properties are positive cash flow) will generate these kinds of returns without waiting for many decades. There are many many more ways to make money/counter inflation than betting on continued RE appreciation. That ship sailed with the end of COVID.

Merck just did a very successful trial of an oral COVID treatment. This time next year, nobody's gonna be worried that they are gonna die of COVID (not that they are now, except for some weirdos). Your guess is as good as mine as to what that will do to RE prices.

Most people here are talking about buying their own homes, not investment properties. We bought in August and no regrets. LOVE our neighborhood. House has so much more space than our apt that cost a couple hundred less and everything is just nicer. Our neighbors are absolutely lovely. Moving was awful though and we won't do it again until we absolutely have to. Which means we will be here a while. So yeah, if it was just a question of where do we put $2500 a month? Sure maybe stocks are better. But we need a place to live and it's either $2300 in rent that will increase every year for an apt or $2600 PITI plus maintenance for a much bigger house in the neighborhood where we want our child to go to school and grow up and have a stable life.

You're missing the point.

Just because you bought it when you did, and that you're ok with it, doesn't imply that asset valuations are not elevated. And I repeat, you can consider it "home" or whatever, it is still an asset and is and was, always valued like an asset.

Hint: Why do you think they are not building millions more homes as we speak? Because...commodity prices are elevated as well. Lumber has come down to pre-pandemic levels, but there several other commodities and supply chain issues that are still relevant. That is causing RE prices to levitate. But that won't last. Never has, never will. Commodities will come down, either willingly or due to an "event". Supply chain issues will be resolved one or another. Our country cannot survive if we don't solve this. So if we have to go to a war footing or an actual war, to solve this, we will.

BS, there is a lot more to this than commodities, and you know it. And yes, the fact that I live in my "asset" as you call it does make a difference, since I need a place to live. The opportunity cost of putting my money into a mortgage payment is different if it will go into rent otherwise. In some cases rent to buy does favor renting, but rarely so when you own it for a long time.

Ok. I'll play along. Go ahead, explain "the more to this" part.

Yes, you do need a place to live, but it's absolutely a sane decision to continue renting (and it's not throwing money away) if the PITI payment is $5K, and the house will rent for less than $3K. And $K in payment isn't even expensive for this area, yet the number of people who will pay $3-4K in rent is fairly small.

If you think the price of commodities is the top reason why home prices are so high, you have lost all credibility.

[Anonymous]

Thought we’d get relief this fall but no, millionaires throwing their weight around. So jealous of my friends in normal houses in great neighborhoods that bought 2+ years ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thought we’d get relief this fall but no, millionaires throwing their weight around. So jealous of my friends in normal houses in great neighborhoods that bought 2+ years ago.

So buy a house and stop being cheap.

[Anonymous]

I don’t know how reliable the Redfin is but it says:

In September 2021, Washington, DC home prices were down 3.7% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $623K. On average, homes in Washington, DC sell after 37 days on the market compared to 28 days last year. There were 648 homes sold in September this year, down from 939 last year.

https://www.redfin.com/city/12839/DC/Washington-DC/housing-market

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know how reliable the Redfin is but it says:

In September 2021, Washington, DC home prices were down 3.7% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $623K. On average, homes in Washington, DC sell after 37 days on the market compared to 28 days last year. There were 648 homes sold in September this year, down from 939 last year.

https://www.redfin.com/city/12839/DC/Washington-DC/housing-market

Condos.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Oh, we're most definitely in a housing (and others) bubble, not withstanding all this drivel from current owners.

Is it popping yet? Well, that's somewhat debatable, but what's not debatable is that it will pop. And very soon, if it hasn't started already.

All this talk from people that, if you wait for xx amount of time, you're just throwing money away on rent is just that. Talk. Rent vs Own math is very very heavily skewed towards renting right now and that is always the sign of a bubble top. I can rent a house in prime time locations across the country for way less than it'll cost to buy the same house. I can do that, live in the same exact house as the owners, and invest the difference. But wait!! You won't build "equity" and you're throwing money away on rent!

No I'm not. A house is an asset just like stocks, bonds, fine art, whatever, except it has a very high carrying cost. One of the worst investments. If you can buy it at a price where the rent/buy ratio works, THEN it is a good investment, because you can generate positive cash flow, just like buying a business. Do you see Warren Buffett going out and buying mansions right now, even though he could buy quite a few and not even notice the difference in his account? No. Do you see real estate "investors" buying up houses right now, because apparently they are such a great deal and will continue going up? No. Sam Zeil, one of the most successful RE investors is liquidating his RE portfolio. So is Apollo. So is Blackrock, to a certain degree. When these investors can't buy properties at a price where it will generate a positive cash flow, they know it's time to sell.

And you guys...buy buy buy.

I'm an RE investor as well, and I'm liquidating my properties in several states as we speak. There is no way my cash flow (and all my properties are positive cash flow) will generate these kinds of returns without waiting for many decades. There are many many more ways to make money/counter inflation than betting on continued RE appreciation. That ship sailed with the end of COVID.

Merck just did a very successful trial of an oral COVID treatment. This time next year, nobody's gonna be worried that they are gonna die of COVID (not that they are now, except for some weirdos). Your guess is as good as mine as to what that will do to RE prices.

Most people here are talking about buying their own homes, not investment properties. We bought in August and no regrets. LOVE our neighborhood. House has so much more space than our apt that cost a couple hundred less and everything is just nicer. Our neighbors are absolutely lovely. Moving was awful though and we won't do it again until we absolutely have to. Which means we will be here a while. So yeah, if it was just a question of where do we put $2500 a month? Sure maybe stocks are better. But we need a place to live and it's either $2300 in rent that will increase every year for an apt or $2600 PITI plus maintenance for a much bigger house in the neighborhood where we want our child to go to school and grow up and have a stable life.

You're missing the point.

Just because you bought it when you did, and that you're ok with it, doesn't imply that asset valuations are not elevated. And I repeat, you can consider it "home" or whatever, it is still an asset and is and was, always valued like an asset.

Hint: Why do you think they are not building millions more homes as we speak? Because...commodity prices are elevated as well. Lumber has come down to pre-pandemic levels, but there several other commodities and supply chain issues that are still relevant. That is causing RE prices to levitate. But that won't last. Never has, never will. Commodities will come down, either willingly or due to an "event". Supply chain issues will be resolved one or another. Our country cannot survive if we don't solve this. So if we have to go to a war footing or an actual war, to solve this, we will.

The supply chain issues are not about to be resolved any time soon and will worsen in the coming weeks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Oh, we're most definitely in a housing (and others) bubble, not withstanding all this drivel from current owners.

Is it popping yet? Well, that's somewhat debatable, but what's not debatable is that it will pop. And very soon, if it hasn't started already.

All this talk from people that, if you wait for xx amount of time, you're just throwing money away on rent is just that. Talk. Rent vs Own math is very very heavily skewed towards renting right now and that is always the sign of a bubble top. I can rent a house in prime time locations across the country for way less than it'll cost to buy the same house. I can do that, live in the same exact house as the owners, and invest the difference. But wait!! You won't build "equity" and you're throwing money away on rent!

No I'm not. A house is an asset just like stocks, bonds, fine art, whatever, except it has a very high carrying cost. One of the worst investments. If you can buy it at a price where the rent/buy ratio works, THEN it is a good investment, because you can generate positive cash flow, just like buying a business. Do you see Warren Buffett going out and buying mansions right now, even though he could buy quite a few and not even notice the difference in his account? No. Do you see real estate "investors" buying up houses right now, because apparently they are such a great deal and will continue going up? No. Sam Zeil, one of the most successful RE investors is liquidating his RE portfolio. So is Apollo. So is Blackrock, to a certain degree. When these investors can't buy properties at a price where it will generate a positive cash flow, they know it's time to sell.

And you guys...buy buy buy.

I'm an RE investor as well, and I'm liquidating my properties in several states as we speak. There is no way my cash flow (and all my properties are positive cash flow) will generate these kinds of returns without waiting for many decades. There are many many more ways to make money/counter inflation than betting on continued RE appreciation. That ship sailed with the end of COVID.

Merck just did a very successful trial of an oral COVID treatment. This time next year, nobody's gonna be worried that they are gonna die of COVID (not that they are now, except for some weirdos). Your guess is as good as mine as to what that will do to RE prices.

Most people here are talking about buying their own homes, not investment properties. We bought in August and no regrets. LOVE our neighborhood. House has so much more space than our apt that cost a couple hundred less and everything is just nicer. Our neighbors are absolutely lovely. Moving was awful though and we won't do it again until we absolutely have to. Which means we will be here a while. So yeah, if it was just a question of where do we put $2500 a month? Sure maybe stocks are better. But we need a place to live and it's either $2300 in rent that will increase every year for an apt or $2600 PITI plus maintenance for a much bigger house in the neighborhood where we want our child to go to school and grow up and have a stable life.

You're missing the point.

Just because you bought it when you did, and that you're ok with it, doesn't imply that asset valuations are not elevated. And I repeat, you can consider it "home" or whatever, it is still an asset and is and was, always valued like an asset.

Hint: Why do you think they are not building millions more homes as we speak? Because...commodity prices are elevated as well. Lumber has come down to pre-pandemic levels, but there several other commodities and supply chain issues that are still relevant. That is causing RE prices to levitate. But that won't last. Never has, never will. Commodities will come down, either willingly or due to an "event". Supply chain issues will be resolved one or another. Our country cannot survive if we don't solve this. So if we have to go to a war footing or an actual war, to solve this, we will.

The supply chain issues are not about to be resolved any time soon and will worsen in the coming weeks.

True. We are mid-renovation and every single item needed has had supply chain issues from lumbar, to flooring, to windows, to cabinets, to appliances. Even labor is a problem.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Oh, we're most definitely in a housing (and others) bubble, not withstanding all this drivel from current owners.

Is it popping yet? Well, that's somewhat debatable, but what's not debatable is that it will pop. And very soon, if it hasn't started already.

All this talk from people that, if you wait for xx amount of time, you're just throwing money away on rent is just that. Talk. Rent vs Own math is very very heavily skewed towards renting right now and that is always the sign of a bubble top. I can rent a house in prime time locations across the country for way less than it'll cost to buy the same house. I can do that, live in the same exact house as the owners, and invest the difference. But wait!! You won't build "equity" and you're throwing money away on rent!

No I'm not. A house is an asset just like stocks, bonds, fine art, whatever, except it has a very high carrying cost. One of the worst investments. If you can buy it at a price where the rent/buy ratio works, THEN it is a good investment, because you can generate positive cash flow, just like buying a business. Do you see Warren Buffett going out and buying mansions right now, even though he could buy quite a few and not even notice the difference in his account? No. Do you see real estate "investors" buying up houses right now, because apparently they are such a great deal and will continue going up? No. Sam Zeil, one of the most successful RE investors is liquidating his RE portfolio. So is Apollo. So is Blackrock, to a certain degree. When these investors can't buy properties at a price where it will generate a positive cash flow, they know it's time to sell.

And you guys...buy buy buy.

I'm an RE investor as well, and I'm liquidating my properties in several states as we speak. There is no way my cash flow (and all my properties are positive cash flow) will generate these kinds of returns without waiting for many decades. There are many many more ways to make money/counter inflation than betting on continued RE appreciation. That ship sailed with the end of COVID.

Merck just did a very successful trial of an oral COVID treatment. This time next year, nobody's gonna be worried that they are gonna die of COVID (not that they are now, except for some weirdos). Your guess is as good as mine as to what that will do to RE prices.

Most people here are talking about buying their own homes, not investment properties. We bought in August and no regrets. LOVE our neighborhood. House has so much more space than our apt that cost a couple hundred less and everything is just nicer. Our neighbors are absolutely lovely. Moving was awful though and we won't do it again until we absolutely have to. Which means we will be here a while. So yeah, if it was just a question of where do we put $2500 a month? Sure maybe stocks are better. But we need a place to live and it's either $2300 in rent that will increase every year for an apt or $2600 PITI plus maintenance for a much bigger house in the neighborhood where we want our child to go to school and grow up and have a stable life.

You're missing the point.

Just because you bought it when you did, and that you're ok with it, doesn't imply that asset valuations are not elevated. And I repeat, you can consider it "home" or whatever, it is still an asset and is and was, always valued like an asset.

Hint: Why do you think they are not building millions more homes as we speak? Because...commodity prices are elevated as well. Lumber has come down to pre-pandemic levels, but there several other commodities and supply chain issues that are still relevant. That is causing RE prices to levitate. But that won't last. Never has, never will. Commodities will come down, either willingly or due to an "event". Supply chain issues will be resolved one or another. Our country cannot survive if we don't solve this. So if we have to go to a war footing or an actual war, to solve this, we will.

BS, there is a lot more to this than commodities, and you know it. And yes, the fact that I live in my "asset" as you call it does make a difference, since I need a place to live. The opportunity cost of putting my money into a mortgage payment is different if it will go into rent otherwise. In some cases rent to buy does favor renting, but rarely so when you own it for a long time.

Ok. I'll play along. Go ahead, explain "the more to this" part.

Yes, you do need a place to live, but it's absolutely a sane decision to continue renting (and it's not throwing money away) if the PITI payment is $5K, and the house will rent for less than $3K. And $K in payment isn't even expensive for this area, yet the number of people who will pay $3-4K in rent is fairly small.

If you think the price of commodities is the top reason why home prices are so high, you have lost all credibility.

+1 Honestly it's not worth my time to respond to this idea that home prices are high solely because of lumber and other commodity supply chain issues. But I will say I can absolutely rent my house for close to if not more than my PITI, a house I bought at 2021 prices. Show us a house with a $5k PITI that you can only rent out for $3k.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thought we’d get relief this fall but no, millionaires throwing their weight around. So jealous of my friends in normal houses in great neighborhoods that bought 2+ years ago.

relief may come in the outer suburbs, but don’t count on it in the inner suburbs. There were large increases at the end of the 70’, 80’s, 90’s. In the 2010’s it brought recovery from the great recession, but the inner suburbs just flatlined. We are now in another ramp up period. I expect it to last two more years and flat line for 7 or so years. Again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Oh, we're most definitely in a housing (and others) bubble, not withstanding all this drivel from current owners.

Is it popping yet? Well, that's somewhat debatable, but what's not debatable is that it will pop. And very soon, if it hasn't started already.

All this talk from people that, if you wait for xx amount of time, you're just throwing money away on rent is just that. Talk. Rent vs Own math is very very heavily skewed towards renting right now and that is always the sign of a bubble top. I can rent a house in prime time locations across the country for way less than it'll cost to buy the same house. I can do that, live in the same exact house as the owners, and invest the difference. But wait!! You won't build "equity" and you're throwing money away on rent!

No I'm not. A house is an asset just like stocks, bonds, fine art, whatever, except it has a very high carrying cost. One of the worst investments. If you can buy it at a price where the rent/buy ratio works, THEN it is a good investment, because you can generate positive cash flow, just like buying a business. Do you see Warren Buffett going out and buying mansions right now, even though he could buy quite a few and not even notice the difference in his account? No. Do you see real estate "investors" buying up houses right now, because apparently they are such a great deal and will continue going up? No. Sam Zeil, one of the most successful RE investors is liquidating his RE portfolio. So is Apollo. So is Blackrock, to a certain degree. When these investors can't buy properties at a price where it will generate a positive cash flow, they know it's time to sell.

And you guys...buy buy buy.

I'm an RE investor as well, and I'm liquidating my properties in several states as we speak. There is no way my cash flow (and all my properties are positive cash flow) will generate these kinds of returns without waiting for many decades. There are many many more ways to make money/counter inflation than betting on continued RE appreciation. That ship sailed with the end of COVID.

Merck just did a very successful trial of an oral COVID treatment. This time next year, nobody's gonna be worried that they are gonna die of COVID (not that they are now, except for some weirdos). Your guess is as good as mine as to what that will do to RE prices.

Most people here are talking about buying their own homes, not investment properties. We bought in August and no regrets. LOVE our neighborhood. House has so much more space than our apt that cost a couple hundred less and everything is just nicer. Our neighbors are absolutely lovely. Moving was awful though and we won't do it again until we absolutely have to. Which means we will be here a while. So yeah, if it was just a question of where do we put $2500 a month? Sure maybe stocks are better. But we need a place to live and it's either $2300 in rent that will increase every year for an apt or $2600 PITI plus maintenance for a much bigger house in the neighborhood where we want our child to go to school and grow up and have a stable life.

You're missing the point.

Just because you bought it when you did, and that you're ok with it, doesn't imply that asset valuations are not elevated. And I repeat, you can consider it "home" or whatever, it is still an asset and is and was, always valued like an asset.

Hint: Why do you think they are not building millions more homes as we speak? Because...commodity prices are elevated as well. Lumber has come down to pre-pandemic levels, but there several other commodities and supply chain issues that are still relevant. That is causing RE prices to levitate. But that won't last. Never has, never will. Commodities will come down, either willingly or due to an "event". Supply chain issues will be resolved one or another. Our country cannot survive if we don't solve this. So if we have to go to a war footing or an actual war, to solve this, we will.

BS, there is a lot more to this than commodities, and you know it. And yes, the fact that I live in my "asset" as you call it does make a difference, since I need a place to live. The opportunity cost of putting my money into a mortgage payment is different if it will go into rent otherwise. In some cases rent to buy does favor renting, but rarely so when you own it for a long time.

Ok. I'll play along. Go ahead, explain "the more to this" part.

Yes, you do need a place to live, but it's absolutely a sane decision to continue renting (and it's not throwing money away) if the PITI payment is $5K, and the house will rent for less than $3K. And $K in payment isn't even expensive for this area, yet the number of people who will pay $3-4K in rent is fairly small.

If you think the price of commodities is the top reason why home prices are so high, you have lost all credibility.

PP here...

[Anonymous]

Won’t pop but will make a hissing sound when higher property taxes, higher mortgage rates and higher flood and property insurance starts rising in 2022 and 2023.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Won’t pop but will make a hissing sound when higher property taxes, higher mortgage rates and higher flood and property insurance starts rising in 2022 and 2023.

I thought my flood insurance (not in a flood zone) would go up with all the talk of flood insurance and the new maps on this site but it actually went down. I live in Alexandria.