Harris beating Trump in Iowa

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Team Ann Selzer, Team Kamala and Team LADIES

Sing it loud

I never feel confident about anything - but I feel very very confident that most pollsters have vastly underestimated how angry women are

I don’t think Selzer did, though. She told Mark Halperin that she oversampled older liberal white women.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is what a desperate lie looks like.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dobbs was overturned in June 2022. In November 2022, Iowa voted even more to the right than 2020. The R governor won by almost 20 points after winning by less than 3 in 2018, and the state house flipped several seats from D to R! There's no other evidence Dobbs is a driving force there. The more simple explanation is the poll is an outlier.

If you think it’s such an outlier, why are you expending so much energy trying to convince others it’s not valid? Seems like you’re worried that it’s accurate.

I'm not worried at all! The poll was laughable. It's just there's so many people here delusional she is going to win the whole thing based on this one poll... Maybe you're right; I should let you all figure it out tomorrow night that you were duped.

I don’t know if any Democrats (or anti Trump Rs) that spend their time on R leaning websites trying to tell them that their partisan polls are the shit that they are.

Sorry this sucks for your narrative.

I will follow the facts, meaning the votes, tomorrow.

Trump had optimistic Rs that hated Hilary in 2016 along with Comey and barely squeaked a win.

Trump lost some of them but gained low propensity voters that were sucked into the big con. So he found new voters but lost in 2020.

Then there was January 6 after four years of narcissism and stream of consciousness governance. All that are left are MAGA member that drank the koolaide and low information voters.

Then his SCOTUS overturned Roe, crazy town states enacted draconeon prohibitions on reproductive healthcare and women have been dying.

Trump is falling apart before our eyes, whether it is due the strokes, dementia or whatever is happening. He has no filter and no mojo left so no MAGA enthusiasm except for in states he is going to lose.

He insults his voters and everyone else and is a walking embarrassment.

His moronic billionaire buddies don’t understand how offensive and incompetent they actually are. Thus the R GOTV effort is a flaming pile of $hit.

Harris could still lose, but I am so happy to be on the side of Joy and competence.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dobbs was overturned in June 2022. In November 2022, Iowa voted even more to the right than 2020. The R governor won by almost 20 points after winning by less than 3 in 2018, and the state house flipped several seats from D to R! There's no other evidence Dobbs is a driving force there. The more simple explanation is the poll is an outlier.

If you think it’s such an outlier, why are you expending so much energy trying to convince others it’s not valid? Seems like you’re worried that it’s accurate.

I'm not worried at all! The poll was laughable. It's just there's so many people here delusional she is going to win the whole thing based on this one poll... Maybe you're right; I should let you all figure it out tomorrow night that you were duped.

In about 30 hours we’ll know. If the Emerson poll turns out to be right, and Trump wins Iowa outside Selzer’s margin of error, I’ll absolutely acknowledge that her poll was an outlier.

If the results are within Selzer’s margin of error, will you acknowledge anything?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dobbs was overturned in June 2022. In November 2022, Iowa voted even more to the right than 2020. The R governor won by almost 20 points after winning by less than 3 in 2018, and the state house flipped several seats from D to R! There's no other evidence Dobbs is a driving force there. The more simple explanation is the poll is an outlier.

If you think it’s such an outlier, why are you expending so much energy trying to convince others it’s not valid? Seems like you’re worried that it’s accurate.

I'm not worried at all! The poll was laughable. It's just there's so many people here delusional she is going to win the whole thing based on this one poll... Maybe you're right; I should let you all figure it out tomorrow night that you were duped.

I don’t know if any Democrats (or anti Trump Rs) that spend their time on R leaning websites trying to tell them that their partisan polls are the shit that they are.

Sorry this sucks for your narrative.

I will follow the facts, meaning the votes, tomorrow.

Trump had optimistic Rs that hated Hilary in 2016 along with Comey and barely squeaked a win.

Trump lost some of them but gained low propensity voters that were sucked into the big con. So he found new voters but lost in 2020.

Then there was January 6 after four years of narcissism and stream of consciousness governance. All that are left are MAGA member that drank the koolaide and low information voters.

Then his SCOTUS overturned Roe, crazy town states enacted draconeon prohibitions on reproductive healthcare and women have been dying.

Trump is falling apart before our eyes, whether it is due the strokes, dementia or whatever is happening. He has no filter and no mojo left so no MAGA enthusiasm except for in states he is going to lose.

He insults his voters and everyone else and is a walking embarrassment.

His moronic billionaire buddies don’t understand how offensive and incompetent they actually are. Thus the R GOTV effort is a flaming pile of $hit.

Harris could still lose, but I am so happy to be on the side of Joy and competence.

Excellent summary. Excited for tomorrow!! Feeling hopeful!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dobbs was overturned in June 2022. In November 2022, Iowa voted even more to the right than 2020. The R governor won by almost 20 points after winning by less than 3 in 2018, and the state house flipped several seats from D to R! There's no other evidence Dobbs is a driving force there. The more simple explanation is the poll is an outlier.

If you think it’s such an outlier, why are you expending so much energy trying to convince others it’s not valid? Seems like you’re worried that it’s accurate.

I'm not worried at all! The poll was laughable. It's just there's so many people here delusional she is going to win the whole thing based on this one poll... Maybe you're right; I should let you all figure it out tomorrow night that you were duped.

I don’t know if any Democrats (or anti Trump Rs) that spend their time on R leaning websites trying to tell them that their partisan polls are the shit that they are.

Sorry this sucks for your narrative.

I will follow the facts, meaning the votes, tomorrow.

Trump had optimistic Rs that hated Hilary in 2016 along with Comey and barely squeaked a win.

Trump lost some of them but gained low propensity voters that were sucked into the big con. So he found new voters but lost in 2020.

Then there was January 6 after four years of narcissism and stream of consciousness governance. All that are left are MAGA member that drank the koolaide and low information voters.

Then his SCOTUS overturned Roe, crazy town states enacted draconeon prohibitions on reproductive healthcare and women have been dying.

Trump is falling apart before our eyes, whether it is due the strokes, dementia or whatever is happening. He has no filter and no mojo left so no MAGA enthusiasm except for in states he is going to lose.

He insults his voters and everyone else and is a walking embarrassment.

His moronic billionaire buddies don’t understand how offensive and incompetent they actually are. Thus the R GOTV effort is a flaming pile of $hit.

Harris could still lose, but I am so happy to be on the side of Joy and competence.

+1 to all of this. He is a spectacularly bad candidate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Team Ann Selzer, Team Kamala and Team LADIES

Sing it loud

I never feel confident about anything - but I feel very very confident that most pollsters have vastly underestimated how angry women are

I don’t think Selzer did, though. She told Mark Halperin that she oversampled older liberal white women.

Liar.

[Anonymous]

Where are her cross tabs? Why isn’t she releasing these?

[Anonymous]

Harris campaign knew about this poll last week. Why no events in Iowa?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Harris campaign knew about this poll last week. Why no events in Iowa?

You don’t chase the 320th electoral vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where are her cross tabs? Why isn’t she releasing these?

She did release them. Check again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.

But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.

Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Harris campaign knew about this poll last week. Why no events in Iowa?

Because her road to 270 depends more on other states. It’s not like Iowa has a lot of EC votes.

Also noting here that there is a scenario where both Emerson and Selzer are both correct.

Finally, has anyone here pointed out that Trump responded to this poll by calling Selzer his “enemy?” (Classy as always)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Harris campaign knew about this poll last week. Why no events in Iowa?

What would be the point? It would be the equivalent of Clinton chasing a landslide by going to Texas. It's not in her 'Must Have' column.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where are her cross tabs? Why isn’t she releasing these?

She did release them. Check again.

Can you link? She said in a video that the Register wouldn’t let her report them specifically the party ID tabs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.

But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.

Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.

You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.